azazel Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 I started a Buying Woodland thread on HPC.co.uk which became a growing vegetables/becoming a hermit thread! Having said that, I feel that I owe HPC.co.uk a great deal[1] for opening my eyes, and for putting me in what I believe to be a stronger financial position. So, I do still like to hang out there and post. As far as I'm concerned, life's too short to concern myself with how others wish to run their forums. As long as I still feel as though I have something to learn from HPC.co.uk[2], I intend to continue visiting. And I'm sure as long as I'm not deemed to be making a nuisance of myself, I'll be allowed to continue visiting and posting. So, for now, I continue to learn a few things, and they get someone contributing to their website-hit figures. To some extent, it's just tit-for-tat... Okay, so I'm a hippie too! [1] Not least of which was finding GEI many months ago! [2] Which, when you know as little as I do, could be for quite some time to come! I find myself getting bored there now. Its changed since the gold thread dispute. I still post occasionally but I feel oppressed by the moderators. Its like animal farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Oh, don't get me wrong... I owe the forum (and its posters) a great deal. Arguably they helped me decide to STR too early. ... but we'll overlook that. I just don't like what it seems to have turned into over the past 3-6 months. I guess the way to change that is to actively post. But, like many, my free time is limited and I have to carefully choose what to spend it on. What is "too soon"? Do you think everyone can sell "at the top"? What did you do with the money? I would argue, STR is a good strategy at any time, if you find a better use for your equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rikk03 Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 What are your thoughts on Silver DrBubb, there are some here that love silver ...... im contemplating buying some Philharmonics with next months pay. The broker takes a huge slice when you sell though - far greater than with gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 ...Strange how he doesn't talk about billions upon billions being lent to keep these banks in business... But I guess thats what happens when you fail to understand the limitless power of the printing press. ... He fails to understand that central banks are there to avoid a deflationary slump, and that is exactly what they're doing now. They are cautious, because they know it will cause (hyper-)inflation, but political pressure will be too much to withstand. RK will be wiped out. But then, someone has to. And he is shorting the greatest bull market of this century (gold & PMs) against better knowledge. If anyone, he deserves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 He fails to understand that central banks are there to avoid a deflationary slump, and that is exactly what they're doing now. They are cautious, because they know it will cause (hyper-)inflation, but political pressure will be too much to withstand. Exactly. And how can the US possibly have deflation along side a declining dollar? I've not heard many explanations for this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 He fails to understand that central banks are there to avoid a deflationary slump, and that is exactly what they're doing now. They are cautious, because they know it will cause (hyper-)inflation, but political pressure will be too much to withstand. RK will be wiped out. But then, someone has to. And he is shorting the greatest bull market of this century (gold & PMs) against better knowledge. If anyone, he deserves it. CBs didn't avoid it in US 1929, nor in 1990 Japan. While I think you're probably right about a hyperinflationary ending to dollar hegemony, it's not a done deal. Bernanke admits now that he expects banks are going to fail. If they just let them go down en-masse there would be massive deflationary pressure, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 What is "too soon"?Do you think everyone can sell "at the top"? What did you do with the money? I would argue, STR is a good strategy at any time, if you find a better use for your equity. Is this the answer to the "when should I start selling gold" question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Is this the answer to the "when should I start selling gold" question? Isn't it pretty much the answer to when everyone should start selling anything -- when they think they can do better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Tipping a waiter in Zimbabwe. :lol: We'll never have that physical problem thanks to the wonders of electronic credit and debit cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 CBs didn't avoid it in US 1929, nor in 1990 Japan. While I think you're probably right about a hyperinflationary ending to dollar hegemony, it's not a done deal. Bernanke admits now that he expects banks are going to fail. If they just let them go down en-masse there would be massive deflationary pressure, don't you think? There is a slight difference in 1929. Money was made out of actual silver coinage and was backed by physical gold. Japan is the only example of a fiat deflation and there are many reasons as to why that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 What is "too soon"?Do you think everyone can sell "at the top"? What did you do with the money? I would argue, STR is a good strategy at any time, if you find a better use for your equity. I sold a flat in London (IoD / Docklands) in late 2004 (completed April 2005)... I'm not bothered by it because my wife and I have now had the chance to live in some great rented properties in different parts of the country in a kind-of "try before you buy" type way. If I'd held on 2 more years I could've got an extra £50k or so for it... But I've made more than that (when measured in today's devalued GBP) in my investments in PMs and other currencies in the last 6 months... so I'm not bothered at all. And yes, selling BEFORE the top rather than AFTER the top is key. I'm not one to be greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 CBs didn't avoid it in US 1929, nor in 1990 Japan. While I think you're probably right about a hyperinflationary ending to dollar hegemony, it's not a done deal. Bernanke admits now that he expects banks are going to fail. If they just let them go down en-masse there would be massive deflationary pressure, don't you think? I think they won't let the big boys go down. I agree, any real bank failure with lost deposits is real monetary deflation. But I think they will only allow a few small ones to go against the wall. Imagine Citi going bust with no bailout whatsoever. I don't think it will happen, but if so, gold would go to the moon since the only safe place for your money (if even Citi can go bust, and Treasuries only ever pay negative interest). The US 1929 and Japan in 1990 are very different cases. Both where creditor nations at the time. And in 1929 you had the gold standard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 It's all blowing up. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Money Markets May Force Bank of England to Revive Auctions, Barclays Says March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England may be forced to follow the Federal Reserve in stepping up efforts to ease strains in the money markets after the cost of borrowing pounds rose to a two-month high, according to Barclays Capital.... The Bank of England is coming under pressure to resume emergency cash auctions as central bankers meet in Basel, Switzerland today to discuss renewed tension in money markets and the global economy. ... The Bank of England offered 10 billion pounds ($20 billion) of three-month loans on Dec. 18 and again on Jan. 15. The loans mature this month. A spokesman declined to comment last week on the likelihood of new auctions. ... ``The interbank market is not working properly. As Libor rates track higher, central banks will try to mute that process.'' Infinite rollover, anyone? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Hedge Funds Reel From Margin Calls Even on Treasuries March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The hedge-fund industry is reeling from its worst crisis in a decade as banks are now demanding more money pledged to support outstanding loans even when the investment is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.... ``If you have leverage, you're stuffed,'' said Alex Allen, chief investment officer of London-based Eddington Capital Management Ltd., which has $195 million invested in hedge funds for clients. He likens the crisis to a bank panic turned upside down with bankers, not depositors, concerned they won't get their money back. ... ``There has to be more in the next weeks,'' Allen said. ``There are people who have been hanging on by their fingernails who can't hold on much, much longer.'' ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 We are moving into a full-blown REALITY PHASE when such comments are picked up and printedby the likes of mainstreamers like JPM It's a full-blown bankers' panic. We had a real bank run already, the bank run on the shadow banking system is almost over (all SIVs busted already?), and now this. The run on the muni bonds is also almost over. Next thing is a run on government bonds. And then possibly some real bank runs again. Run, run, run. Got gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Isn't it pretty much the answer to when everyone should start selling anything -- when they think they can do better? Now you have gone and pointed out the obvious I feel a little embarrassed But on the bright side - I now have a whole new investments strategy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Gold and silver getting hammered today from the very beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 I think they won't let the big boys go down. I agree, any real bank failure with lost deposits is real monetary deflation. But I think they will only allow a few small ones to go against the wall. Imagine Citi going bust with no bailout whatsoever. I don't think it will happen, but if so, gold would go to the moon since the only safe place for your money (if even Citi can go bust, and Treasuries only ever pay negative interest). The US 1929 and Japan in 1990 are very different cases. Both where creditor nations at the time. And in 1929 you had the gold standard as well. Not really a dollar gold standard as they devalued it substantially to try and re-inflate. So in that situation they did try monetary inflation (around 30% I think) to head off debt deflation with only limited success. Clearly the UK will throw taxpayers money at the most undeserving of financial institutions. The real question is will the US? I rather think if they were, they would have found a way of covertly funding the monolines via some complex multi-party bailout. Like I said, I'm not really disagreeing with the inflationary outcome opinion on the thread, just with the level of assumed certainty. All my money is already in PMs for protection from inflation, the safety aspect is nice too (supposing the banks are allowed to fail). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Gold and silver getting hammered today from the very beginning. Looks like Axstone's bear trap. http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...;postcount=8651 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Not really a dollar gold standard as they devalued it substantially to try and re-inflate. So in that situation they did try monetary inflation (around 30% I think) to head off debt deflation with only limited success. Still can't compare this to the 'thin air' standard we use now. Don't forget their coins were 90% physical silver back then... As were ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 LOL seems HPC.co.uk has a new rival to cgnao. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70179 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70247 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenbee Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 LOL seems HPC.co.uk has a new rival to cgnao. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70179 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70247 Hadn't seen the second thread. Meaty bear food. Will have to look out for his posts! kb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 What are your thoughts on Silver DrBubb, there are some here that love silver ...... im contemplating buying some Philharmonics with next months pay. The broker takes a huge slice when you sell though - far greater than with gold. i'M NOT AS BULLISH as some others on Silver. But I do own some silver stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Gold and silver getting hammered today from the very beginning. Volatility in silver and Platinum definitely increasing. A ~5% swing to the downside this morning. Hold onto your hats! (or just switch off and don't bother following the market ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Is this the answer to the "when should I start selling gold" question? It could be a decent answer, YES. Any ideas of what might beat gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 And yes, selling BEFORE the top rather than AFTER the top is key. I'm not one to be greedy. You gotta know I agree with that comment. Those still stuck in, long UK property now, are going to find it very hard to close a sale, now that the liquidity is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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