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A couple of pro-PM reads...

 

Bailouts Will Soon Drive the Currency Markets: http://seekingalpha.com/article/99813-bail...urrency-markets

 

The Golden Rule

 

You see, the same problems that will drive down our stock markets WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND MASSIVE INFLATION. The ONLY direction for interest rates is higher. Please note that I’m not talking about official rates set by monetary authorities. They will be slashed to near zero levels, but the Fed will not be able to control our multi trillion dollar economy by manipulating short term interest rates.

 

I have a mortgage which tracks the BoE base rate (not libor) and as such have been pleased to bide my time in the short term to take advantage of the lowered interest rate and will be happy to do so until they hit at least 3.5%. What do folks think about the medium to long term prospects for 'official' central rates and the prospect of potentially having a mortgage with close to zero interest? Is this likely/probable? Of course I'd like to have no debt but that is not possible right now and it is not practical for me to re-mortgage to a long term fixed at the moment. I totally accept what is likely to happen to rates in the real market. I have been thinking about re-mortgaging to a long term fixed, but these are more closely linked to libor are they not so am in two minds given my current link to BoE base.

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... I have been thinking about re-mortgaging to a long term fixed, but these are more closely linked to libor are they not so am in two minds given my current link to BoE base.

doofy

 

I understand your problem. The thing is, while I would expect the BoE rate to go lower until Sterling finally snaps and they will have to hike to stave off a total collapse, fixed rates might just increase the spread on the BoE, i.e. remortgaging later won't give you a better deal, possibly an even worse one. I have fixed the rate on a US student loan recently for exactly this reason.

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I saw one interview of Roubini where he was asked about what he does with his own money, he is a very risk averse investor. Opting for mutual funds etc. The man would have made a fortune shorting banks and buying gold but he is too busy being an economist and professor I guess.

 

I think the fact that Roubini isn't making money from investments that will perform well if his predictions come to fruition give him more credibility as an economic commentator. It's not that Puplava, Schiff, Rodgers, Bubb, Sinclar etc.. don't have the same credibility, because they do, and have been very accurate in what they have been saying for years. Its just that critics can easily say that Schiff, Puplava etc.. are just promoting their business and talking up their investments. I know thats not a very credible attack when you look at the what they have been saying for all these years, but it is often used to undermine their position in the eyes of the great uninformed public.

 

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... I know thats not a very credible attack when you look at the what they have been saying for all these years, but it is often used to undermine their position in the eyes of the great uninformed public.

Disagree with you on that one. I think people should put their money where there mouth is.

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Disagree with you on that one. I think people should put their money where there mouth is.

 

The 'put your money where your mouth is' thing is fine, but it doesn't really address enrieb's point in my view.

 

The opinion of someone who makes money out of selling bullion, for example, isn't necessarily as objective as that of a by-stander.

 

You wouldn't think twice about, for example, questioning Gordon Brown's view that everything's fine -- and you'd be right to question it, as he stands to gain if everything really is fine.

 

People with vested interests aren't automatically wrong or anything, but the fact that they have vested interests shouldn't be ignored.

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I see a lot of these tossers talking about Bretton Woods, but none of them mention gold. My suspicion is that they want to replace sovreign control of the reserve currency with control by an international body( read IMF). As far as I know this was what Keynes originally hoped for as he was no fan of the automatic discipline of gold.

 

Our only hope is that the Asians and the Russians are so distrustful of the IMF that they will never allow that to happen.

 

It will only be the countries burned most by the bankers that would willingly give up much of their power and return to the discipline of the gold standard. At the moment I can't imagine who that would be.

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Disagree with you on that one. I think people should put their money where there mouth is.

 

I knew i recognised you

invisible-sets2.jpg

 

 

But i agree with enrieb and i hold him in high regard along with Fred Harrison. Look at the great philosophers and scientists in history, were their goals wealth driven?

 

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Watching the PoG in both GBP and USD is an odd experience lately.

 

I haven't really been paying much attention to how much they follow each other (or don't), but it has felt almost like an immutable law that the price in these two currencies has drifted up and down more or less in tandem.

 

These days, though, there's a lot less correlation. At the moment, I'm just watching gold in the USD gently climbing, while in GBP it's falling -- at least according to BV's chart.

 

I don't really have any point to make... other than the disconnect just feels a bit... odd... ;)

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Hi sylvestor~ fellow kiwi here. was just wondering how big and how much the safety deposit boxes are in NZ. Would they accomodate slver kilo bars?

 

Hi again Roman,

 

There are only a couple of independant vaults in NZ as far as I have seen. The Wellington Central Vault I wasn't so keen on as the security didn't seem that hot and the 'Wellington is on the juinction of 4 fault lines' fact made me reconsider :)

 

ASB Vault in Auckland (ASB licence the name, they don't own the vault) has much better security and is more geologically stable. I only know the price for a mini-box which was $168 per year and is 90mm x 140mm x 600mm as this was plenty big enough for my stash :)

 

They do bigger boxes to so have a look at: http://www.asbvault.co.nz/

 

Sylvester

 

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Hi again Roman,

 

There are only a couple of independant vaults in NZ as far as I have seen. The Wellington Central Vault I wasn't so keen on as the security didn't seem that hot and the 'Wellington is on the juinction of 4 fault lines' fact made me reconsider :)

 

ASB Vault in Auckland (ASB licence the name, they don't own the vault) has much better security and is more geologically stable. I only know the price for a mini-box which was $168 per year and is 90mm x 140mm x 600mm as this was plenty big enough for my stash :)

 

They do bigger boxes to so have a look at: http://www.asbvault.co.nz/

 

Sylvester

 

Thanks S~ That's exactly the sort of thing i am looking for and very well-priced. My family are starting to get a little nervous with the odd delivery they get from time to time.... TBH makes me a little nervous also not to have my PM in a vault.

 

I think I shall go for the mini one also... if available. I can imagine a lot of people are looking for these services now.

 

Regards.

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Hi sylvestor~ fellow kiwi here. was just wondering how big and how much the safety deposit boxes are in NZ. Would they accomodate slver kilo bars?

 

A standard size plastic self-seal type envelope which costs ~~~$50/year will hold....I'm trying to think how to describe it....

 

OK, lets say 40mm thick, and say 200mm long and 100mm wide.

 

Roughly.

 

I think that must be at least 5kg of silver.

 

Edited to add: this is with a normal bank, in their safe.

 

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I have a mortgage which tracks the BoE base rate (not libor) and as such have been pleased to bide my time in the short term to take advantage of the lowered interest rate and will be happy to do so until they hit at least 3.5%. What do folks think about the medium to long term prospects for 'official' central rates and the prospect of potentially having a mortgage with close to zero interest? Is this likely/probable? Of course I'd like to have no debt but that is not possible right now and it is not practical for me to re-mortgage to a long term fixed at the moment. I totally accept what is likely to happen to rates in the real market. I have been thinking about re-mortgaging to a long term fixed, but these are more closely linked to libor are they not so am in two minds given my current link to BoE base.

 

Last week I fixed my mortgage at 5.6% for 7 years. I think that IR's could well go down in the short term but I was not interested in saving a few quid now and risk getting caught out later! I did wonder whether I had done the right thing and was especially nervous last fri when electronic money was flying through the system. I was glued to the tv/computer and online banking hoping the system didnt implode that day!

However, having done it I am feeling extremely relaxed, knowing exactly what is what for the next 7 yrs. AND 5.6% is still historically low.

hope this helps

Springer

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Last week I fixed my mortgage at 5.6% for 7 years. I think that IR's could well go down in the short term but I was not interested in saving a few quid now and risk getting caught out later! I did wonder whether I had done the right thing and was especially nervous last fri when electronic money was flying through the system. I was glued to the tv/computer and online banking hoping the system didnt implode that day!

However, having done it I am feeling extremely relaxed, knowing exactly what is what for the next 7 yrs. AND 5.6% is still historically low.

hope this helps

Springer

Cheers, yours and goldfingers comments very welcome. The fix does feel to be the way to go.

 

edit: ps. which provider did you go with and why (if not lowest rate) if you don't mind me asking?

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The 'put your money where your mouth is' thing is fine, but it doesn't really address enrieb's point in my view.

 

The opinion of someone who makes money out of selling bullion, for example, isn't necessarily as objective as that of a by-stander.

 

You wouldn't think twice about, for example, questioning Gordon Brown's view that everything's fine -- and you'd be right to question it, as he stands to gain if everything really is fine.

 

People with vested interests aren't automatically wrong or anything, but the fact that they have vested interests shouldn't be ignored.

Vice versa, I wouldn't trust someone who told me to buy bullion but hasn't any on his own. That's a little like Al Greenspan telling everyone to take out variable mortgages back in 2006 (or when it was). :o

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We may have a good buying opportunity ahead.

 

 

1] The market may be lulled into a sense of security with the reflationary effort.

 

2] If libor drops and the market continues to gain confidence with the bailout, the deflation scare will be pacified.

 

3] All have completely forgotten about any threat of inflation.

 

 

Under these conditions expect POG to dip as players sell.

 

 

 

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Watching the PoG in both GBP and USD is an odd experience lately.

 

I haven't really been paying much attention to how much they follow each other (or don't), but it has felt almost like an immutable law that the price in these two currencies has drifted up and down more or less in tandem.

 

These days, though, there's a lot less correlation. At the moment, I'm just watching gold in the USD gently climbing, while in GBP it's falling -- at least according to BV's chart.

 

I don't really have any point to make... other than the disconnect just feels a bit... odd... ;)

 

Sterling is strenghtening against the dollar

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Sterling is strenghtening against the dollar

 

Even though their relative strength has varied, the price of gold in the two currencies does generally seem to have moved in the same direction, though, even if it's to a different extent. Now, it seems increasingly common for them to actually move in different directions.

 

Unless I'm imagining it and it's always been that way.

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Common sense seems an oxymoron these days. You're spot on, my only fear is 5 years is not enough....

 

Last week I fixed my mortgage at 5.6% for 7 years. I think that IR's could well go down in the short term but I was not interested in saving a few quid now and risk getting caught out later! I did wonder whether I had done the right thing and was especially nervous last fri when electronic money was flying through the system. I was glued to the tv/computer and online banking hoping the system didnt implode that day!

However, having done it I am feeling extremely relaxed, knowing exactly what is what for the next 7 yrs. AND 5.6% is still historically low.

hope this helps

Springer

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Cheers, yours and goldfingers comments very welcome. The fix does feel to be the way to go.

 

edit: ps. which provider did you go with and why (if not lowest rate) if you don't mind me asking?

 

Skipton - apparently they are a pretty safe provider that is not too embroiled in this mess, I didnt check this myself though , just took a friends(FA) word for it. Also I can make 10% capital repayments each year. It was extremely easy , they didnt even check our salary/value of house etc etc (worrying :blink: eric would not like that!) Very low LTV though.

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