GOLD

[G0ldfinger]

Systematic margin calls claim JPM. Another red alarm going off yesterday - commodities are now the only safe haven.

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), said in a report late on Friday.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080308/bs_nm/...losses_jpm_dc_1

Thanks for posting. That sounds painful. I wonder why the commerical gold shorts never fail on a margin call. They seem to have the deepest of all paper pockets.

[G0ldfinger]

I'm still waiting to become 'CAP Verified' with GoldMoney. Do you recall how long this took? I think I sent my documents off last Monday-ish.

 

On a (hopefully) positive note, I actually bought my first gold yesterday...

I think roughly a week should be sufficient.

[G0ldfinger]

BTW, Norcini thinks the silver commercial signal failure is off for now. Well, we'll see. I will add to my position anyway soon.

[azazel]

Nice one.

 

(P.S. I noticed what looked like somebody's real name in the post. Did you mean to delete it?)

 

Yes I missed that bit.

[ologhai]

A quick newbie sort of question:

 

I'm still a little confused about whether there are really any advantages to using PM-related ETFs over buying physical.

 

For example, if someone decides to invest a certain amount in silver, is there any reason not to simply use it all to buy physical (e.g. using GoldMoney)? Or, is it better to only put a portion of that amount into physical, and put the rest into an ETF that tracks silver? Is there really any difference in the end?

 

Thanks in advance!

[wren]

Yes I missed that bit.

Do you mean you want the name deleted, but maybe now cannot do it yourself? If so, admin/moderators could sort it.

[azazel]

Do you mean you want the name deleted, but maybe now cannot do it yourself? If so, admin/moderators could sort it.

 

Thanks I have requested that. Could have Nigerian scamers hassling me!

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Welcome GF

Can I start off the discussion by asking you whether you have any other predictions for the price of gold.

IMO the best two so far that I have read are from Jim Sinclair and Krassimir Petrov.

Both of which I put on this chart:

 

 

I thought this morning, it would be nice to add more predictions to it, and see how they all compare.

 

I might skip the Goldman Sachs one of a falling gold price

 

Steve

 

Is it relevant, doesn't it mostly depend on the growth in the money supply.

 

i think the ratio of gold to house prices, dow, silver etc (things that you can buy with the gold) are more relevant.

 

at some point it will be wise to sell gold and move back into productive assets (dont know when that will be though - but the charts/ratio's that some people post on here should help with that decision.

 

wonder if cgnao could be tempted to appear occassionally.

[wren]

I can see nothing unusual yet in the London Fixing chart. So far this looks as any other approach of a round number.

Good point, and it's interesting how a different impression might be obtained depending on the type of display. I'm only eye-balling and in practice I don't worry about the short term. But the previous approaches (at 800 and 900) didn't have the red candlesticks. I wonder whether errol would be so kind as to provide his style of chart going to before the first breach of 700 way back in '06?

 

Not that I claim any prescience. Just chatting.

[G0ldfinger]

A quick newbie sort of question:

 

I'm still a little confused about whether there are really any advantages to using PM-related ETFs over buying physical.

 

For example, if someone decides to invest a certain amount in silver, is there any reason not to simply use it all to buy physical (e.g. using GoldMoney)? Or, is it better to only put a portion of that amount into physical, and put the rest into an ETF that tracks silver? Is there really any difference in the end?

 

Thanks in advance!

The problem is that the silver might actually not be there in an ETF. This means possibly the most important aspect of an PM-investment, i.e. holding something tangible, is lost. Google Ted Butler and ETF on that subject. There was also a lawsuit against I think Morgan Stanly who 'sold' silver to investors (even no ETF) that simply was non-existent. They could not come up with bar numbers in the end (because there were no bars). Still they charged storage costs. One must really love them.

[G0ldfinger]

Good point, and it's interesting how a different impression might be obtained depending on the type of display. I'm only eye-balling and in practice I don't worry about the short term. The short term to me is just entertainment really. But the previous approches (at 800 and 900) didn't have the red candlesticks. I wonder whether errol would be so kind as to provide his style of chart going to before the first breach of 700 way back in '06?

 

Not that I claim any prescience. Just chatting.

It's true, intraday volatility is increasing.

[Pluto]

A quick newbie sort of question:

 

I'm still a little confused about whether there are really any advantages to using PM-related ETFs over buying physical.

 

For example, if someone decides to invest a certain amount in silver, is there any reason not to simply use it all to buy physical (e.g. using GoldMoney)? Or, is it better to only put a portion of that amount into physical, and put the rest into an ETF that tracks silver? Is there really any difference in the end?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

The silver in the ETF: SLV is owned by Barclays. That is all you really need to know. Use EFTs as short term trading vehicles, and keep your main stash in physical. I am a physical kinda guy.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQXECBdPgEA

[Pluto]

I just had a reply from the "webmaster" at HPC, I will paste it below.

 

 

Azazel wrote:

>Please can you sort the dispute out in the "famous" Gold thread and return

>it to where it has always been, in the main forum.

>

>Thanks

 

 

 

From: Webmaster [mailto:forum@housepricecrash.co.uk]

Sent: 08 March 2008 13:57

To: A.. B.. C..

Subject: Re: [HPC-00231357-oM8F6] Error on the forums

 

The Main forum is for discussion on house price. Gold is not a house. It was moved to

its logical location which was the Metals forum under investment.

 

 

Dear webmaster,

 

You say the main forum is for discussion on house prices. You then say gold is not a house. House prices are not houses either are they? House prices are MONEY which is what gold is. This whole boom bust cycle in house prices is arguably caused by the abandoning of the Gold standard. So it is central to the discussion on house prices.

 

Azazel

 

They don't want to talk about Gold because it tears their deflationary argument to shreds. The deflationists believe their money is going up in value and thereby is an additional justification for STRing. What they fail to accept is houses are going down when measured in paper fiat, but collapsing when priced in Gold.

 

The subject of Gold is relevant as it exposes inflation for what it really is: the expansion of the money supply. The subject of Gold on HPC has become personal with moderators and webmaster, it's a shame because the losers are folks who view the website who can also ignore the thread if they so wish, just like I ignore the thread on peak oil and many others.

[Steve Netwriter]

Is it relevant, doesn't it mostly depend on the growth in the money supply.

 

i think the ratio of gold to house prices, dow, silver etc (things that you can buy with the gold) are more relevant.

 

at some point it will be wise to sell gold and move back into productive assets (dont know when that will be though - but the charts/ratio's that some people post on here should help with that decision.

 

wonder if cgnao could be tempted to appear occassionally.

 

Yes agreed. It's the purchasing power of the gold that's important.

At the moment, house prices are going down, so that chart under-represents the rise in purchasing power re houses anyway.

 

Isn't that the whole problem. So much money has gone into non-productive things, like houses and derivatives.

I would prefer to invest in something which is productive, and will be glad to reduce my PM portfolio when the time is right.

[Tahoma]

They don't want to talk about Gold because it tears their deflationary argument to shreds.

 

I think it is simpler than that. Despite Gold being the most recurrent topic by posters on 'their' site since it's inception, they-don't-own-any.

[Pluto]

Second bank failure in the US this year. These are going rise exponentially and cause panic to investors in other banks.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8V8TE181.htm

 

The FDIC is planning to beef up its staff -- including temporarily hiring up to 25 retired FDIC employees who worked in the agency's more than 200-person division that handles failed banks -- to handle an anticipated increase in bank failures.

[Pluto]

I think it is simpler than that. Despite Gold being the most recurrent topic by posters on 'their' site since it's inception, they-don't-own-any.

 

They talk of moving from pounds to euros to dollars to pound then swiss francs. They are going to make some FX firm very rich.

[Tahoma]

They are going to make some FX firm very rich.

 

Edit 'are going to make' for 'have made' and I am in complete agreement. And so would they be, if they were honest.

[ConvertedGoldBug]

Hi,

 

Right, I'm just going to start reading this thread through from the beginning, but if anyone can summarise the following into a few sentences, that would be a great help.

 

Currently have gold/silver/PM ETF's, some mining funds, etc. and think I'd like to buy some physical coins.

 

Looking at both gold and silver coins.

 

The research I'm looking for is what coins to get, and where to get them from.

 

Do the coins come in 1oz weights, or are they more than this?

If they're 1oz, then for the sake of rounding in this example, it'll be £500 for one gold coin, and £10 for one silver coin.

 

So if I buy one gold coin, what should I get? Gold Eagle, Britannia, Maple, Sovereign, Krugerand?

 

I'm getting the impression that Maples and Krugerands are more popular.

Also Sovereigns don't incur Capital Gains Tax in the UK on selling(?)

 

Should I stick to one type of coin? Or get a Krugerand, and then a Sovereign, and then something else?

Are some coins easier to sell than others? If so, then why? They're all made of gold!!!

 

Then there's silver... I'd probably go for half the amount I would spend in gold, so lets say for £250 I'd get about 20-ish coins. What should I go for here? Philharmonikers?

 

And finally, where should I buy them? (I am based in the UK)

Seems like a few suggestions like GoldMoney, CoinInvestDirect etc.

Can I order small amounts (say £500 worth of something per month)? How are they delivered (secure postage service)? Will the delivery service know what they are delivering, seeing as they'll know where I live (paranoia alert!!!)

 

Perhaps this would be better as a new thread somewhere (if the Mods wanted to move this)? A thread dedicated to actual physical purchases and dealers etc?

 

EDIT: Should also mention that I'd only be spending a few thousand (maybe 5k max), and would like to take delivery of these... so wouldn't be thinking of storing vast amounts with BullionVault etc.

[Pluto]

Hi,

 

Right, I'm just going to start reading this thread through from the beginning, but if anyone can summarise the following into a few sentences, that would be a great help.

 

Currently have gold/silver/PM ETF's, some mining funds, etc. and think I'd like to buy some physical coins.

 

Looking at both gold and silver coins.

 

The research I'm looking for is what coins to get, and where to get them from.

 

Do the coins come in 1oz weights, or are they more than this?

If they're 1oz, then for the sake of rounding in this example, it'll be £500 for one gold coin, and £10 for one silver coin.

 

So if I buy one gold coin, what should I get? Gold Eagle, Britannia, Maple, Sovereign, Krugerand?

 

I'm getting the impression that Maples and Krugerands are more popular.

Also Sovereigns don't incur Capital Gains Tax in the UK on selling(?)

 

Should I stick to one type of coin? Or get a Krugerand, and then a Sovereign, and then something else?

Are some coins easier to sell than others? If so, then why? They're all made of gold!!!

 

Then there's silver... I'd probably go for half the amount I would spend in gold, so lets say for £250 I'd get about 20-ish coins. What should I go for here? Philharmonikers?

 

And finally, where should I buy them? (I am based in the UK)

Seems like a few suggestions like GoldMoney, CoinInvestDirect etc.

Can I order small amounts (say £500 worth of something per month)? How are they delivered (secure postage service)? Will the delivery service know what they are delivering, seeing as they'll know where I live (paranoia alert!!!)

 

Perhaps this would be better as a new thread somewhere (if the Mods wanted to move this)? A thread dedicated to actual physical purchases and dealers etc?

 

EDIT: Should also mention that I'd only be spending a few thousand (maybe 5k max), and would like to take delivery of these... so wouldn't be thinking of storing vast amounts with BullionVault etc.

 

If you are going to start a numismatic / bullion collection then mix-up your selection, maples, kruggers, pandas, brittanias, etc. However, if you are buying purely as an monetary investment stick with bullion with the tightest buy/sell ratios to spot - and that is probably Kruggers. I know the sovs and britannias are exempted from tax, but the spread is wider as well. Also, Kruggers are probably the coin that the most recognizable worldwide and always are easier to sell.

 

The same goes for silver. Silver rounds are close to spot, but the silver pandas and brittanias are the best looking and collectible.

[azazel]

Hi,

 

Right, I'm just going to start reading this thread through from the beginning, but if anyone can summarise the following into a few sentences, that would be a great help.

 

Currently have gold/silver/PM ETF's, some mining funds, etc. and think I'd like to buy some physical coins.

 

Looking at both gold and silver coins.

 

The research I'm looking for is what coins to get, and where to get them from.

 

Do the coins come in 1oz weights, or are they more than this?

If they're 1oz, then for the sake of rounding in this example, it'll be £500 for one gold coin, and £10 for one silver coin.

 

So if I buy one gold coin, what should I get? Gold Eagle, Britannia, Maple, Sovereign, Krugerand?

 

I'm getting the impression that Maples and Krugerands are more popular.

Also Sovereigns don't incur Capital Gains Tax in the UK on selling(?)

 

Should I stick to one type of coin? Or get a Krugerand, and then a Sovereign, and then something else?

Are some coins easier to sell than others? If so, then why? They're all made of gold!!!

 

Then there's silver... I'd probably go for half the amount I would spend in gold, so lets say for £250 I'd get about 20-ish coins. What should I go for here? Philharmonikers?

 

And finally, where should I buy them? (I am based in the UK)

Seems like a few suggestions like GoldMoney, CoinInvestDirect etc.

Can I order small amounts (say £500 worth of something per month)? How are they delivered (secure postage service)? Will the delivery service know what they are delivering, seeing as they'll know where I live (paranoia alert!!!)

 

Perhaps this would be better as a new thread somewhere (if the Mods wanted to move this)? A thread dedicated to actual physical purchases and dealers etc?

 

EDIT: Should also mention that I'd only be spending a few thousand (maybe 5k max), and would like to take delivery of these... so wouldn't be thinking of storing vast amounts with BullionVault etc.

 

 

Hi

 

Britannia's and sovereigns are exempt from CGT but you get an allowance for £9300 or (£18600 if you get the invoice made out to you and your wife) so you only need them if you expect to make more than those amounts. Krugerrands are generally cheapest (22carrat gold, copper coloured but still contain 1 ounce of gold) maples are 9999 gold so they look like gold. Britannias are more expensive.

 

As for silver, philharmonics and maples are cheapest on coininvestdirect.com. They seems to only charge 9% vat on coins. I phoned ATS on Friday and they wanted £17+vat for a Britannia.

 

I would get a mixture of coins as there are no discounts on quantity, and it would be more interesting for you.

 

The coins are usually well packaged so it could be anything in the box. Books, stone, lead fishing weights etc.

 

Az

[qwerty]

duplicate

[G0ldfinger]

Gold. Let's put some perspective on it.

 

1% of the population in America has 90% of the wealth. Let’s say that 3 million people want to buy just a mere 100K$ of gold (and this is peanuts for the richest people in America) then at $700/oz this is 13,400 tonnes which is probably ALL the remaining CB gold. Imagine these people want to invest more than that! Now multiply it out for the richest people in the entire world population! This is why alternative investments have to be propped up…they have to keep the stock market propped up, they have to keep the bond market functioning because if a small percentage of that money comes looking for gold you can see that it will quickly be unavailable. But their best efforts will not prevent it, it will just slow it down.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...;postcount=8636

[G0ldfinger]

Edit 'are going to make' for 'have made' and I am in complete agreement. And so would they be, if they were honest.

Many people have simply can't see how much they're losing when the currency tanks. I myself only woke up to this when I started working outside my native country.

[ConvertedGoldBug]

You have Etf's, if you have large sums there it might make more sense to use Goldmoney or Bullionvault because it is at least allocated to you not held by some institution that likes to short gold or silver that does not really exist, best of all you can buy in much smaller amounts from 1 gramme.

If you make a profit using them you could realise that profit and buy physical?.

 

Remember Etf's charge you a buying and selling commission usually around £12 so not worth buying small amounts or trying to pound cost average.You can also only trade them in market hours not 24/7 !.

 

I have approx 75% of my investments (ISA's and Pension) in Precious Metal ETF's (which comprise Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium).

The remainder is in mining funds.

Looking to invest April's ISA allowance into a Silver ETF

 

To be honest, I don't really know why I would WANT to buy physical bullion or coins.

Yes, they'd be nice to hold and look at.

Yes, they'd be another diversification of my investments.

 

But I am investing with the remit that investing in precious metals is a good way to MAKE money at the moment.... rather than buying the actual metals themselves and treating them AS money.

 

Are people only holding these with the frame of mind that there is going to be a systematic banking failure or something, and that only these will be of any use in an apocalyptic senario?

 

I personally don't believe that would happen. That would be like the end of the world... every person on the planet's investments (pensions, cash etc.) gone!!! Would lead to riots, wars, total breakdown in society etc. Central banks would be more inclined to print money to prevent that happening, leading to hyper-inflation.

 

So other than the risk of the ETF not being backed by the physical metals (which they say they are), surely at some point you have to convert your gold/silver bullion/coins back into fiat money in order to spend it?

 

So to come back to my original question, I think it is reading all the discussions about gold and world financial crisis events from various sources that is kind of "brainwashing" me into thinking I should hold some percentage of my wealth physical metals. In which case, yes I would only be treating them as an "investment".