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Coincidence, I just posted about RGLD in the mining section. I have to admit I'm losing faith in it, I think I'll make a decision on it next week.

Have you looked at the chart?

I often make money buying when others lack the confidenxce to do so.

But that doesnt mean I am right this time.

I have already bought some calls today, Will tell you which series when I am done.

 

But it is late in HK now, and Im calling it a night

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Have you looked at the chart?

I often make money buying when others lack the confidenxce to do so.

But that doesnt mean I am right this time.

I have already bought some calls today, Will tell you which series when I am done.

 

But it is late in HK now, and Im calling it a night

 

 

I'll admit the chart looks ready for a monster rebound. What I'm worried about is gold itself, if it corrects significantly (although I don't expect that before we pass $1000) the RGLD shorts will have a field day.

 

Anyway, for the time being I'm holding, it's certainly not a good idea to sell today. I'll reassess following the next upmove.

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I've noticed recently poor performance from the Kitco.com site... Refreshing the gold, silver, platinum (and I'm sure other) charts often results in a connection failure and a retry being required.

 

Is this potentially a sign of more interest in PMs out there? ... or do I just have an unreliable Internet connection?

I've failed to connect sometimes recently at kitco.com. Looking at the Alexa traffic stats, although there's an increase over the last few days, on the 5-year graph it is insignificant:

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/kitco.com

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Blimey, looks like the posts per day ratio at GEI (3 days 43pages) has quickened up just a tad.

 

I'm very glad to see some of the more respectable names from HPC, (my personal opinion of course) Pluto & Goldfinger over here on GEI as the only thread I visited on HPC was the gold thread, even though i never posted in it, i always read it with great interest and very much enjoyed the posts and rocket pictures, but it was always hard to keep pace.

 

I am only invested in Gold and Silver Bullion coins at present, and adding to my collection every time a price dip occurs (not that there’s been many)

 

So may I ask these questions.

 

What signs are you looking for that would signal to you that a top in the gold price is in place ?

 

Obviously de-flation has got to be key here, and if I’m correct the £20 note is one of the most produced banknotes currently in circulation. for those outside of the UK the bank of England is currently circulating 2no. different £20 notes. But nobody seems to know when the "old style" £20 note is going to be pulled out of circulation.

 

Would the announcement of this must have an effect on the gold price as this must surely be seen as "actual deflation"

 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/noteissue.pdf

 

does anyone else know if this situation is happening in other currencies, IE: is there 2 different types of $100 bill in circulation maybe showing 2 different "dead presidents" ?

 

Also, after listening to the latest FSN and the "Gold round table" Money supply was being mentioned quite a bit, with the removal of the M3 figures, is this just the figures for the USD$ or have the M3 figures been removed for ALL currencies ? and would this also confirm that the above weblink only shows data up to Feb 2006 ?

 

 

Sorry about the multiple questions here, but I’m still fairly novice in these sorts of matters, so go easy folks B)

 

 

 

SR

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What signs are you looking for that would signal to you that a top in the gold price is in place ?

 

Here are a few things that I have picked up from FSN/Goldseek radio etc, over the last year or so,that might help.

 

Central Banks start to protect their currencies by raising interest rates significantly (most probably to double digits).

 

M3 money supply falls for several months in succession. There are shadow stats and people such as the Goldseek radio crew keep a constant watch on them. They have promised to let people know when they believe that the Gold bull run is nearing the top.

 

The Gold market moves into the mainstream and goes balistic (I think that if/when this happens I will stop buying and start to sell in increments)

 

I heard someone say "don't try to trade the last 10% at the top of the market". Get out whist you are in profit.

 

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The market wants to crash. There is not much propping it up anymore. Goodbye DOW it was nice knowing ya!

 

Don't underestimate the PPT and the 'Bernanke put'. I think the liquidity taps are going to be opened in a big way now, in fact, I think the Fed will smash the taps off completely!

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What signs are you looking for that would signal to you that a top in the gold price is in place ?

DOW/GOLD and House prices/GOLD are important long-term ratios for me.

 

I'm trying to settle on criteria which would identify a maniacal price blowout, if such occurs. If it doubles in less than a year that might be one criterion, but I'd be interested in more sophisticated and reliable criteria.

 

So long as the prospective real return on cash savings is negative, I'd prefer gold (and silver) over cash.

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Here are a few things that I have picked up from FSN/Goldseek radio etc, over the last year or so,that might help.

 

Central Banks start to protect their currencies by raising interest rates significantly (most probably to double digits).

 

M3 money supply falls for several months in succession. There are shadow stats and people such as the Goldseek radio crew keep a constant watch on them. They have promised to let people know when they believe that the Gold bull run is nearing the top.

 

The Gold market moves into the mainstream and goes balistic (I think that if/when this happens I will stop buying and start to sell in increments)

 

I heard someone say "don't try to trade the last 10% at the top of the market". Get out whist you are in profit.

 

 

Thanks for your reply

 

I fully concur with the "mainstream aspect" there really doesn't seem to be much reported in both TV news and Newspapers about the price of gold, but what does consern me is with the money supply figures being hidden, how reliable are these shadow stats ? do you know how they source this information ?

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So long as the prospective real return on cash savings is negative, I'd prefer gold (and silver) over cash.

 

I have to admit, i'm starting to come around to the train of thought the Gold and Silver are the only REAL money now days, maybe I've been watching to many David Morgan videos recently

 

His recent line of "a dollar is a dollar" is an absolute classic,

 

heres the link for anybody who hasn't seen it........

 

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3657719902845882974

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I have been exploring this site and it is brilliant,for investment tips but still too complicated for a complete novice, so i am taking it upon myself to learn as much as i can and i found this place that gives a complete novice a bit of an insight to the casino, it even has a quiz after the info to see what one has picked up upon, even a dummie like me can get the terms and answers right.

http://beginnersinvest.about.com/

Hope it helps dummies like me. B)

 

After all when gold reaches are target we will need an exit plan

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DOW/GOLD and House prices/GOLD are important long-term ratios for me.

 

I'm trying to settle on criteria which would identify a maniacal price blowout, if such occurs. If it doubles in less than a year that might be one criterion, but I'd be intested in more sophisticated and reliable criteria.

 

So long as the prospective real return on cash savings is negative, I'd prefer gold (and silver) over cash.

 

 

During the tech boom lots of new fund launches hardly any remain now.

 

Last year there were lots of new property fund launches to suck up private investors.

 

There are only a couple of UK gold funds at present .

 

Increased media coverage and interest in chat forums and sites dealing with the subject.

 

Gold sentiment goes from "risky" investment to "must have" investment in private investor mentality much as China/Bric economies are now, as well as some commodities Agri etc.

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Sylvester,

Are you in NZ then ?

 

If you're in NZ, then these are possibilities:

 

Central Vault - Wellington

http://www.centralvault.co.nz/

Prices and sizes: http://www.centralvault.co.nz/boxsizes.php

 

ASB in Auckland

http://www.customhouse.co.nz/ASBVault.swf

 

Space Station - Auckland

http://www.spacestationstorage.co.nz

 

The NZ Mint will also store it for you.

Also the local bank will put it in their safe for a very modest fee. Like NZ$30-$100/year.

 

 

In OZ, I know the Perth Mint will store it.

 

Unless you have a very good safe in your home, I don't see you'd be able to insure anything more than 1x coin !

 

I know it's difficult knowing who to trust, but IMO it's bad enough having your TV stolen, let alone something valuable B)

 

And if you use a bank safe, maybe use a different bank to the one you have any money in :)

 

Steve

 

I dunno, you go to sleep for 8 hours and 5 pages have appeared! :D

 

Cheers for the info Steve, I have been to Central vault in Wellington and wasn't hugely impressed to be honest. Also as it is at the centre of 4 fault lines and below an office block I did wonder about it's integrity in the 'big one' :D

 

I have decided to store my coins in the ASB vault in Auckland as it looks safer, is more geologically stable and I can drive to the NZ Mint and pick up my gold and drive it across town.

 

I have now found that NZI will cover me insurance wise (including the drive across town!) and that plus the deposit box costs are still about 1/2 the cost of storage / insurance at the mint.

 

So do I take it that you store your stash in a good vault and not worry about insuring it? That would give me sleepless nights!

 

Sylvester

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This can't be good either.

Thornburg Can't Meet Margin Calls, Survival in Doubt (Update3)

 

By David Mildenberg

 

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the New Mexico provider of ``jumbo'' home loans, said the company doesn't have enough money to meet $610 million in margin calls and its survival is in doubt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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This is breaking news!!!

 

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Rose, Led by Credit Cards (Update1)

 

By Vincent Del Giudice

 

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer borrowing rose in January as Americans spent twice as much on their credit cards as they did a month earlier.

...

People once dependent on home-equity financing are turning to other forms of short-term financing after the collapse in subprime mortgages made it harder to qualify for loans. Personal income in January rose at a slower pace than inflation, and credit card usage in January rose for a second straight month.

 

``There's not much gas left in the tank,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. ``In the early stage of a recession, consumers tend to rely on credit cards to see them through the hard times.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

OH DEAR!

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G0ldfinger/Steve Netwriter - why hold silver also?

 

Are you thinking that silver may rise more or quicker than gold - apologies if that is an old question.

 

Safebetter.

 

I started to reply to you, but it became too big for this thread, so I've created one just on the case for silver.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2887

 

Steve

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Ok, this could lead into another question, but as I'm currently holding ETF's (yes, I know the hardcore people's opinions on these), how is that any different if i'm expecting to sell into the rising market, rather than on the way down... where it could be discovered that not all the value of the ETF is backed by physical?

 

I mean, I could carry on with ETF's until the things get really dire, and then sell and convert to physical, or I could just make a bucket load in ETF's and sell and keep the cash (and but a gallon of petrol with the proceeds B) )

 

I think some of the ETFs have real gold, but some don't.

I think I'm right in saying that some are being used to manipulate the price of gold.

 

As Jim says, buy the real stuff, take it off the market, and stop them manipulating it. They can't do that once you buy it and take possession.

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Fed May Postpone `Rapid' Rate Cut Reversal as Payrolls Decline

 

I'd not heard about any reversal plan; I can only see them reducing rates as far as it's possible to go but they still may not be able to inject new money into the system.

 

I see a period of inflation ahead and gold benefiting as a safe haven but after will follow deflation, I know governments will try anything to stop that at it will mean those good citizens that courageously got themselves in debt to keep the miracle economy going will get hurt but apart from actually printing money, which would destroy any government’s credibility for a generation, they won't be able to stop it.

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