Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 safebetter Very nice work I'm running out of time, otherwise I'd do a new thread out of your posts. I may find time later. The bit that made me crease up with laughter is when the interviewer said "so it's the end....." and Max just paused, and then smiled. What a classic moment. Quite brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Lehman collapse means all bets for the financial system are now off By Philip Aldrick, Banking Editor Last Updated: 7:08pm BST 15/09/2008 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcnbank115.xml Watch the interview on here, with John Moulten of ALCHEMY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 13:44 "There's no inflation threat, get this clear" Like all this stuff apart from the last bit on inflation - he seems to contain his argument to High Street goods - which I think to an extent is true, retailiers are liquidating there stock to move it. He misses the point on food stuff commodities. Other than that I think Mr Manduca always offers forthright views worth listening to. SafeBetter Note how, when he starts to talk about gold, he mentions he expects a massive re-inflationary play - after the deleveraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Fed Funds spread signals crash http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.ph...47860#post47860 The last time the Fed Funds target rate got this out of line with the effective rate was in 1987, and from a base of over 6% not 2%. On a percentage basis, at three times the target rate the spread is unprecedented. It happened today. Fed funds jump to 6 pct in mkt, tripling Fed's target 09.15.08, 12:36 PM ET http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds...afx5425419.html NEW YORK NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal funds traded in the U.S. interbank lending market were indicated to have jumped to 6 percent on Monday, tripling the target rate of 2 percent which the Federal Reserve sets. Today's mega spread between the Fed target and effective rate has not shown up in the Fed's graph yet today. Look for it tonight or tomorrow: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?s[1][id]=DFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongmove Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Note how, when he starts to talk about gold, he mentions he expects a massive re-inflationary play - after the deleveraging. What time scale does he give? You could say the same about houses - now deleveraging, but eventually, they will probably reinflate. Usually takes about a decade though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 ... Today's mega spread between the Fed target and effective rate has not shown up in the Fed's graph yet today. Look for it tonight or tomorrow: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?s[1][id]=DFF Yes, let's see when they update it. Last time was 11/09. I guess it's weekly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Gold just a bit tired this morning after yesterday's excitement. Down a disappointing 10 bucks or so now. No sign of shorters being forced to scramble to cover their positions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevecook172001 Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 It's interesting to note that the collapse of oil over the last few days has not been accompanied by a similar collapse in the price of gold. Are we witnessing the first signs of de-coupling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 This is Deleveraging Not Deflation - Mike Swanson (09/15/08) Submitted by Mike Swanson on Mon, 2008-09-15 http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/7828 I went out of town last week to the Resource Investment Conference in Las Vegas. I'll get to that in a second, but so much is happening that this is going to be a longer message than usual. This weekend we are seeing Lehman go broke, Merrill Lynch in a desperate buyout, AIG try to fend of bankruptcy, and a frightening gap down in the market this morning. And of course last weekend we saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken over by the government last Monday. That spurred a beefy gap up that immediately got sold - and that selling pressure sparked a cascade of selling, which in turned caused only what I can describe as a crash in gold stocks. That drop caused a lot of gold bugs to throw in the towel and others to claim that we are now in a deflationary environment. I don't think so, I think this environment can be best described as deleveraging. Deflation is normally used to describe a decrease in the general price level or a decrease in the money supply. I do not see either one of these happening right now. In fact consumer and producer prices are still growing while the Fed is printing more money and will print enormous amounts of money in the future as a result of its buyout of Fannie and Freddie. That event is extremely inflationary, not deflationary. . . . I do not believe that the government is constantly intervening in the gold market. To pressure gold all they have to do is work together with several central banks to knock down the price through key support levels from time to time - or do so on the opposite end in the currency markets - and the selling will naturally pick up speed. This seems to be what happened in August. But in September I see the selling coming primarily from market participants stuck with huge losses instead of from than government intervention. As a trader though I don't factor manipulation into my decisions. I base my decision on charts and trends in order to quantify my risk and set stop loss points. If I get stopped out due to a move caused by Fed intervention that is fine, because that intervention will likely drive the market much lower than my stop loss point and I rather not get hurt by it. As an investor one has to simply decide how much of one's assets one is comfortable holding for the long-term no matter what temporarily losses could occur. Ultimately the Fred and Fannie news is going to be bullish for gold, because it is going to mean that the Treasury Department is going to end up printing hundreds of billions of dollars over the next two years or so to pay for their losses - and that addition to the national debt will eventually be a drag on the dollar. This is why I find the deflation story hard to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Bank of America + Merrill Lynch = Lynch America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 This is a long one !!! The REFLATION Dam Has Burst! Monetary Flooding Anticipated… Economics / Liquidity Bubble Sep 15, 2008 - 07:03 PM By: Ty_Andros http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6283.html At no time in history has the biggest money in the world been as MISALOCATED and invested as it is today. Generally run by misinformed, poorly prepared ignoramuses who are at the top of the world investment and banking industries. They have not studied history or know economics and are repeating it as is always the case. THIS IS THE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY IN HISTORY. The greatest transfer of wealth from those that store their wealth in paper to those that don't is unfolding. ALL Markets will have to price in reality, and the reality is that the G7 in general and the financial and banking industries in particular (there are exceptions to this) are INSOLVENT. Rather than default through the normal process they will default through the printing press as legendary economist ADAM SMITH and Ludvig Von Mises have illustrated and predicted in their bodies of work. VOLATILITY IS OPPORTUNITY AND IT IS SET TO EXPAND. . . . The money necessary to RECAPITALIZE the G7 financial and banking systems has disappeared due to the terms of the Fannie and Freddie bailout and the NO ACTION in the case of Lehman Brothers. The Fed and Treasury tried to halt the moral hazard by saying no to Lehman, but the time to do so was years ago, so instead it is the match that ignites the dynamite. Since the G7 banking systems have large parts of them which are insolvent, the governments and central banks will be forced to PRINT IT in one form or another. Creating trillions of new IOU's called G7 currencies in addition to those that have already been created. The G7 economies are in virtual collapse due to LACK OF FUNDING AND CREDIT, so expect the greatest REFLATION in history to EMERGE. The collapse in income outlined in the WOLFE wave is continuing, creating additional demand for the printing press. You name it: cities, states, auto and airline industry, the recapitalizations and bailouts have JUST BEGUN! It's inflate or die time… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeingBabyBoomer Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Gold vs Cash: Round 1 ABB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95496-the-...gold-and-silver While I think the article has some flaws regarding reasoning of the difference between gold spot and coins (we can all buy close to spot through BV or GM and other such vehicles, or we can all take delivery of bars in the futures market), it does at least ask questions of the New York sell off that happened repeatedly through August and the concentrated short positions. Does anyone have another plausable (non-manipulation) theory for the over-the-cliff daily New York sell-offs that happened repeatedly through the last few months? Im no trader, but to me they dont look like patterns from which maximum capital is being sought. I have a question though. If am an all powerfull U.S goverment agency looking to control price for whateve motivation, through market makers, bullion banks or other, why not just frig the price electronically? Why not just expand on the well known'down tick' trick? Perhaps the smoking gun is not in the futures market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgleeson Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 And another thing, on-margin hedge funds selling off are one common answer for the sharp drop. Now that is plausable statement for the $1000 to $800 drop, but what fund would still be invested after that 20% haircut, that would then be able to sell off at $800 to $750. They are all on 10-1+ leverage and should all be out right? If they had bought back, in order to sell off once more, shouldn't a price rise be evident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 I was watching news night yesterday and they were talking about all of the banking failures and said this is directly comparable to the depression, wow! It was everything we have been talking about for years rolled in to one sentence. Whilst this is clearly a pivotal moment, I really expected some big moves on gold yesterday, but alas (and again!) it hasn't happened. The fall out of this appears exponential and yet so far nothing... What will be the catalyst that sends this into an uncontainable downward spiral and gold soaring, the demise of AIG? I am still amazed they have managed to keep the wheels on MBIA and AMBAC, surely these boys are going to go pop soon. Why has there been so little noise about the monoliners, are they receiving undisclosed assistance? Dazed and confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 I was watching news night yesterday and they were talking about all of the banking failures and said this is directly comparable to the depression, wow! It was everything we have been talking about for years rolled in to one sentence. Whilst this is clearly a pivotal moment, I really expected some big moves on gold yesterday, but alas (and again!) it hasn't happened. The fall out of this appears exponential and yet so far nothing... What will be the catalyst that sends this into an uncontainable downward spiral and gold soaring, the demise of AIG? I am still amazed they have managed to keep the wheels on MBIA and AMBAC, surely these boys are going to go pop soon. Why has there been so little noise about the monoliners, are they receiving undisclosed assistance? Dazed and confused... It is all about deflation at the moment. We have a credit crisis and now a banking crisis. The market is running to cash. Commodity prices are in decline as hedge funds deleverage. Gold is holding its own, starting to stir and looks to be decoupling from commodities [watch oil]. Inflation [imbalances in the dollar] is still waiting in the wings. When the currency crisis hits, it will have its day and so will gold. But am still a little confused. Edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 David Smith The Biggest Bankruptcy in History *AUDIO* David has some interesting insight into this weekend's Lehman Brothers collapse. How many shoes are yet to drop, in this unprecedented economic turmoil? Time to start looking at gold and silver miners again? http://www.howestreet.com/audio/davidsmith15092008.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 oil down, gold up! could be a very significant trend developing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 oil down, gold up! could be a very significant trend developing here. Agreed, we are starting to see the decoupling we have long hoped for. Gold-to-oil ratio is now over 8.5 (it was around 6.5 in June). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gebb Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Rocket alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 People are starting to get it big time now. Another co-worker scurried off to buy gold after my preaching it today. [all it takes is a crash or two] Edit: have to admit I was a bit envious as got no dry powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 I got UBS stamped on my gold bars. Does that mean they may have extra numismatic value soon? Edit: How to freak your colleagues out and make them run out and buy gold; Lehmans was the biggest bankruptcy in history AIG is the biggest insurer in the world... may go bankrupt tomorrow UBS is bigger than Switzerland... next in the firing line. Edit, Edit, Perhaps I shouldn't be enjoying this so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 AIG is the biggest insurer in the world... may go bankrupt tomorrow The financial crisis is even evident when watching Match of the Day on saturday night TV! West Ham Utd's sponsor (XL airlines) bust Man Utd's sponsor (AIG) will be bust by the weekend Liverpool's new stadium postponed due to "credit crunch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
signofthetimes Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Rocket alert! yes, does look like the nose-end of a rocket doesn't it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 yes, does look like the nose-end of a rocket doesn't it ! SMACKDOWN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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