GOLD

[narco]

why not coininvest? (i am curious as i buy from them)

Just a bit of a falling out over a messed up delivery that ended up in the hands I didn't want to arrive in.

 

[romans holiday]

FWIW, my thoughts exactly.

 

What you have got to ask yourself is, were all the exotic financial instruments we've heard about in existance in past busts?

 

Yeah, and all those UFOs [unidentified Financial Objects] flying about!

 

[had somebody else come up with that? ]

[Johan van der Smut]

They will pave Wall Street with gold and silver just to show how well things are.

 

First time since Atlantis and El Dorado. I am really looking forward to this.

 

Turns out silver did fall off a cliff... but was on a bungee rope.

[lifechooser]

When Kitco shows 'last 769.60' on its 24 hour spot chart, but 'last 777.60' on its New York Spot chart, what does that mean the price is?

 

Confused of internetville.

 

Edit - It means my 24 spot chart image is cached.

[warpig]

Perhaps some of the more experienced PM investors can shed some light on this, personally I would like to see some evidence of this. I'll look later and post back if I find any dependable info.

 

Couldn't tell you that exactly, but from what I gather, silver didn't do well at all during the GD. But, as R.H. has just posted, paper currency back then was backed by gold so that was the obvious choice. It isn't now so that makes silver a definite candidate for treatment as a monetary metal - but whether it'll pull it off is the ?

 

[wrongmove]

Perhaps some of the more experienced PM investors can shed some light on this, personally I would like to see some evidence of this. I'll look later and post back if I find any dependable info.

 

Some info here: The Great Silver Deflation 1919-1948

 

"At New Era Investor, we very much hold to the maxim that the past is the key to the future. In the arena of money, the study of price action and human response offers insights into the great cycles of investment as one asset class gives way to another and then again in reverse.

 

Such was the case with silver from the period 1919 to 1948. Readers will be more familiar with the great spike of 1980 followed by the deflationary bust that recently ended. But the previous cyclical spike of 1919 is not so well known. Using the average annual fixing price from London, the great silver deflation of silver can be seen in the chart below (if anyone has access to the monthly or weekly data I would appreciate an email!).

 

It is a sorry tale as an inflationary peak of $1.34 per ounce was hit in 1919; this is at least $15 in current dollars. It got so bad that Great Britain (and no doubt other countries) debased its silver coin content from 0.925 to 0.500 purity in 1920.

 

But then we had a spiral all the way down to 25 cents per ounce followed this ending in 1932 giving a total price drop of about 82%. A bad time to be holding silver and only surpassed by the great equity crash of 1929. Fans of Elliott Wave analysis will note the three-wave ABC correction that completed that crash.........................."

 

 

 

 

[drbubb]

I think you will see China, cut rates and move towards economic stimulation this week

 

DONE= another good forecast!

 

China cuts key lending rate by 27 basis pts; deposit rates left intact - UPDATE3

09.15.08, 9:13 AM ET

 

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced that it is cutting the benchmark one-year lending rate by 27 basis points to 7.20 pct from tomorrow.

 

It marks the first cut in China's key interest rate since February 2002, and suggests that authorities are concerned about slowing growth.

 

The PBoC said it will also cut the 6-month lending rate by 36 basis points to 6.21 pct. The rate for loans between three and five years will be cut by 18 basis points to 7.56 pct, while the five-year lending rate will be cut by 9 basis points to 7.74 pct.

 

Interest rates on mortgage loans are also being cut, the central bank said

 

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds...afx5423838.html

[Oddball]

Some info here: The Great Silver Deflation 1919-1948

 

"At New Era Investor, we very much hold to the maxim that the past is the key to the future. In the arena of money, the study of price action and human response offers insights into the great cycles of investment as one asset class gives way to another and then again in reverse.

 

Such was the case with silver from the period 1919 to 1948. Readers will be more familiar with the great spike of 1980 followed by the deflationary bust that recently ended. But the previous cyclical spike of 1919 is not so well known. Using the average annual fixing price from London, the great silver deflation of silver can be seen in the chart below (if anyone has access to the monthly or weekly data I would appreciate an email!).

 

It is a sorry tale as an inflationary peak of $1.34 per ounce was hit in 1919; this is at least $15 in current dollars. It got so bad that Great Britain (and no doubt other countries) debased its silver coin content from 0.925 to 0.500 purity in 1920.

 

But then we had a spiral all the way down to 25 cents per ounce followed this ending in 1932 giving a total price drop of about 82%. A bad time to be holding silver and only surpassed by the great equity crash of 1929. Fans of Elliott Wave analysis will note the three-wave ABC correction that completed that crash.........................."

 

 

 

This is by the same guy.

 

$10,000 GOLD & $700 SILVER

 

But it's not coming anytime soon. 2034

[Ret45]

Interesting dicotomy developing according to this extract from BV report today - looks like hedge fund boys aren't taking flight to gold yet. More time to buy!

 

 

 

Surveying 28 professional gold traders, investors and analysts at the end of last week, Bloomberg found 11 were bullish, while nine said to sell. The remaining four were "neutral".

 

The latest US options-and-futures data – released after Friday's close – showed hedge fund traders and other "large speculators" continuing to slash their bullish betting on gold and growing the number of short contracts they hold.

 

As a proportion of their total position, the number of bullish contracts held by institutional speculators fell below 70% to its lowest level since June 2007.

 

Private individuals trading gold derivatives also slashed their bullish bets – and also for the eighth week running – while building their largest short position since May 2005.

 

Back then however, the bullish ratio for "small speculators" stood above 75%. Last Tuesday it stood at a record low of barely 58%.

 

On the other side of the trade, meantime, professional traders acting for gold miners, refineries and bullion banks – often called the "smart money" for their cautious but prescient trading in gold – grew their long positions to an all-time record, pushing their bullish ratio to its own record above forty-one contracts in every hundred.

[id5]

This just came over the ticker and I thought you guys & gals would like it. I am buggered as to how I can do a linky to the newsfeed and I have yet to see the report on the Interweb

 

Spot gold is trading at $783.00/oz after holding a $765.60/$784.90 range. John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS, maintains that the weekend's financial events may put an end to the recent run up in the dollar, which may send euro-dollar higher. "If this proves to be the case, recently-added shorts in the gold market will be vulnerable and if the risk aversion translates into a run into gold, we could move sharply higher," he says. UBS reiterates that their short term gold price forecasts of $850/oz for one-month and $900/oz for three months are due for a review. "In light of the recent events, we will leave these in place for now and have a look at them later in the week when markets have had a chance to trade with better liquidity," Reade adds.

 

 

[DFJ]

I've not checked in since Friday (yep I know, I missed out on the fun) but don't think anyone picked up on this little something:

 

 

 

Stanley Fink looks forward to trading without footprints after joining ISAM

 

By Richard Blackden

Last Updated: 6:54pm BST 14/09/2008

 

Stanley Fink, one of the leading figures in the hedge fund world, said he is looking forward to being able to trading without 'leaving footprints in the snow', after making a dramatic return to the industry.

 

The Sunday Telegraph revealed yesterday that Mr Fink - known as the godfather of the UK hedge fund industry - has joined London-based fund International Standard Asset Management (ISAM) as chief executive officer less than three months after leaving the board of Man Group.

 

Mr Fink turned Man into the world's biggest publicly-traded hedge fund with more than $80bn of assets during his two decades at the group.

 

"When I look back at my 21 years at Man, the bit I got the buzz out of was turning a small business into a medium-sized business," said Mr Fink.

 

Smaller hedge funds of ISAM size typically find it easier to get in and out of trades, according to Mr Fink. ISAM was founded five years ago by Roy Sher, a former gold trader at Merrill Lynch. Alan Amler, a South African-born futures trader, joined him last year. ISAM's Gold fund has returned an average of 17pc over the past four years, while the Macro fund notched returns of 16pc in its first year.

 

For more see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcnfink115.xml

 

[Johan van der Smut]

This just came over the ticker and I thought you guys & gals would like it. I am buggered as to how I can do a linky to the newsfeed and I have yet to see the report on the Interweb

 

Spot gold is trading at $783.00/oz after holding a $765.60/$784.90 range. John Reade, precious metals analyst at UBS, maintains that the weekend's financial events may put an end to the recent run up in the dollar, which may send euro-dollar higher. "If this proves to be the case, recently-added shorts in the gold market will be vulnerable and if the risk aversion translates into a run into gold, we could move sharply higher," he says. UBS reiterates that their short term gold price forecasts of $850/oz for one-month and $900/oz for three months are due for a review. "In light of the recent events, we will leave these in place for now and have a look at them later in the week when markets have had a chance to trade with better liquidity," Reade adds.

 

Over the weekend I was thinking about an article Cuthbert wrote for Moneyweek.com at the start of the year, reviewing the forecasts of PM experts competing in the London Bullion Market Association's annual prescience contest. At the time I downloaded a pdf of the report and have been looking at it again.

 

Ross Norman of The Bullion Desk, referenced as the most bullish commentator and the one who usually comes first or second on the gold price forecast, predicted a low of $840 (ha) and a high of $1,250 (hmm, we'll see).

 

John Reade, on the other hand, predicted $700 to $1,000, which, unless prices soar to record highs in the next three months, looks pretty far-sighted. He also made a very good estimate of silver price, forecasting a low of $11.60 and a high of $20.50.

 

So I take what Mr Reade says seriously. And what he says sounds promising.

 

The report can be downloaded here.

[bitbigt]

Keep in mind...

- oil down 5% today

- marging calls left, right and center will be making people sell gold to raise cash

- yet, gold rises >3%

 

I predict more of the same tomorrow

 

...Indeed, one week ago I predicted an imminent large fall in stocks and a run up in gold, and I suspect this stock market collapse may now accelerate this week as real pannick sets in.

[G0ldfinger]

... So I take what Mr Reade says seriously. ...

Of course you should. UBS is one of the bullion banks, after all. He IS the cartel. Then, one day, he might get it awfully wrong.

[dom]

Gold was mentioned on Radio 4 today in the context of "investors looking for a safe haven".

 

I might get back in next month.

[safebetter]

Interesting day, oil down, potential fed cut (although some are now discounting this) and gold holds out - are we decoupling?

 

Talking heads on Bloomberg even started talking about "is there too much blood on streets and should we be looking to safe havens?".

 

Interesting article from Paul Mason:

 

Is this December 1930?

 

Folks we are seated at the restaurant at the end of the financial universe

 

 

SafeBetter

 

 

[safebetter]

Some interesting commentary tonight on Al Jazeera (English), Max Keiser on commenting about where next for the markets and the US:

 

Lehman bankruptcy and financial meltdown

 

Host: Off live to Paris now. Max Keiser who is a financial journalist is there to join us now. Matthew was talking about who is going to be next. There will be more casualties do you think?

 

Max Keiser: Oh, of course. This was entirely predictable. As we’ve been predicting on these broadcasts actually. The neoliberal model which means that credit is available for almost free. Suddenly last summer credit was unavailable and then banks that need credit to live started to tumble. So this is gaining pace. There’s going to be no credit for banks because you’re talking about $700 trillion worth of debt in the global economy. The entire GDP of the world is something like $60 trillion, so this has a long way to go as you deflate all of this debt back into something that is more sustainable. But that number is a long way from here.

 

Host: What’s the doomsday scenario, Max?

 

Max: It’s not a doomsday scenario if you are in a developing country and you’ve got stuff, like oil in the Middle East; or if you’ve got huge savings like they do in China. It’ s only a doomsday scenario in America and Britain that have been living on borrowed money for generations. It’s a doomsday scenario for them. It’s a happy day for people who have savings, who have money, who have cash, who have stuff, who have oil, who have resources. There’s a decoupling in the wind. America is essentially finished as a global economic power. The US dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency. And we’re going to see now some other country rise up and takes its place. Most probably China.

 

Host: So the end of the world as we know it . . .

 

Max: You seem stunned.

 

Host: I’m stunned? Yes, of course, I am stunned. You said there was going to be a financial shift. That countries that aren’t rich at the moment are going to become rich. That those people who have money, only a little bit, are going to become a great deal richer. That those people who have pensions are going to lose out. It is the end of the world financially as we know it. It’s a new world coming.

 

Max: Look, George Bush himself, only a few weeks ago, said that the problems on Wall Street, is that Wall Street bankers were drunk. That’s a direct quote. It’s true. They’ve been drunk on easy money. Alan Greenspan, who you just profiled on the show, he is the number one supplier of cheap booze to this bacchanalia of credit and debt by keeping rates artificially low. And the developing world has been crying about this and screaming about this for decades. It’s completely unfair, you know. Trade is unfair. The US has the reserve currency. The US has dollar hegemony. Now the tables are turned. The US is on the receiving end of a huge problem that they themselves made. So, again, I say for the developing countries, there will be a period of adjustment but on the other side of this, you’re going to find developing countries winning because they have resources. The price of those resources is going to go up. The dollar is a short term harbor of safety. Trust me. Anyone buying the dollar today is going to be sorry that they did. Short term US Treasury bonds similarly. Once the primary trend resumes, the dollar goes down, US Treasuries go down. Foreign currencies go up. Oil goes up. And we’re going to see a new world order. Not to be overly dramatic about it but even Francis Fukuyama, who is a very famous philosopher in America, who called the end of history when the Berlin Wall came down - incorrectly - he is very good with the bon mot every now and then. He’s talking about a post America world and I think that’s true. America’s role as the driver of the global economy is finished.

 

Max talks about where will money in the markets now go......commodities, foods, oil and gold

 

SafeBetter

 

 

[safebetter]

Bit more research on Max Keiser:

 

http://www.gata.org/node/5115

 

The more I listen to Al Jazeera the more I think they have a less biased via of the (western) world.

 

http://www.maxkeiser.com/

 

Have we posted on this guy before? Don't recall his name but he seems on the money, comments?

 

SafeBetter

[headmelter]

Coin invest seem to be out of Britanias.

[tl8177]

Coin invest seem to be out of Britanias.

 

Maybe I bought the last one

[safebetter]

This guy is great:

 

 

Predictions.........

 

Afshin Rattansi: Just on the matter of gold, it hit a one month high. It's traditionally seen as that investment of choice during wars. Is it the same indicator or is oil a better bet?

 

Max Keiser: I brought you some gold Afshin, I'm going to send this to you. One troy ounce of gold to put in your pocket and carry around with you as this crisis unfolds.

 

Afshin Rattansi: It's probably illegal.

 

Max Keiser: But gold is poised to break out on the upside again. It is the commodity of choice for those that are looking for a safe harbor. It has been selling off over the past few months because the Central Banks and the commercial banks and the investment banks have large short positions in gold trying to keep the price down, but they don't have inexhaustable finances to carry something like that out. So gold is really breaking out on the upside and we're looking for gold to get through the $1000 barrier again, on its way to two and possibly three thousand dollars an ounce.

 

Afshin Rattansi: Finally, back to what you were saying about how the Fed seemed to have them in an unwinnable situation. Does that mean that oil futures will just continue to rise and that the Fed has no options on the table to be able to stop it because that too will mean political problems for political parties in Europe and the United States?

 

Max Keiser: Absolutely. The chart of oil, if you look at it more technically speaking, going back a few years oil has been on an upswing, but it's stayed within a very defined channel. If you can imagine that on its upswing. The price today broke out of that channel on the upside, which, if it stays above the 141/142 level, you could see panic buying into the 150/160 level. Which would create unbelievable dislocations in the global markets and this would result in some, I think, urgency on the part of various world governments to take some action.

 

They are now trying to blame speculators for this problem, but the speculator in this equation is Ben Bernanke.

 

He speculated with the future of the dollar. He lost.

 

And now the results are in the price of oil.

 

Afshin Rattansi: But, surely, a war with Iran would increase oil prices and make things worse for all those banks, so perhaps it's not in the interest of Wall Street?

 

Max Keiser: Goldman Sachs now has the biggest oil position in America and probably one of the biggest oil positions in the world. They're long oil. So the banks have aggressively been buying oil on their balance sheets. I think they might see this as a way to bail themselves out of this mortgage crisis. By hedging themselves by buying oil. They have, remember the shadow banking system, Afshin, which is not talked about widely, but it's the back channel, special investment vehicles and conduits that exist between banks - it's roughly a ten trillion dollar market which is unregulated and unreported.

 

All this paper in the shadow banking system, ten trillion dollars, is at risk of going bad. Which would mean that every major bank in the US is technically insolvent. So if they could get oil to a higher price and they are long oil, maybe this is how they are going to bail themselves out? You know policy is driven purely in self interest. The Federal Reserve Bank and the commercial banks and the Wall Street banks are not acting in the interests of the population at large, they're acting purely in their own self-interest, which is a shame because they're actions dictate the reality for 300 million Americans. But they don't see it that way, they see it only as a way to preserve their own self-interest.

 

SafeBetter

 

 

[safebetter]

Some light relief and.........sound advice:

 

Buy Gold

 

Long and strong

 

SafeBetter

[safebetter]

Market comment from Philip Manduca from 02/09/08:

 

Video here - Manduca Says Pound Can Plunge; Oil Below $100, Gold Down

 

Article with video link and timings synopsis here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a2.4vBY_P6pw

 

00:00 U.K. government response to economic problems

03:19 "Difficult" to tell how much pound will fall

03:56 Brown needs to "get money into this economy"

05:14 Possible "cataclysmic waterfall" for pound

05:42 Pound could "easily" fall to low $1.70s

06:31 Bank of England policy makers "snookered"

08:39 Pound and Swiss Franc: "we got it wrong"

09:25 Sees oil at $80-100, Chinese stockpiles

10:53 Outlook for gold, U.S. dollar and economy

12:59 ECB rhetoric and German wage negotiations

13:44 "There's no inflation threat, get this clear"

 

Like all this stuff apart from the last bit on inflation - he seems to contain his argument to High Street goods - which I think to an extent is true, retailiers are liquidating there stock to move it. He misses the point on food stuff commodities.

 

Other than that I think Mr Manduca always offers forthright views worth listening to.

 

SafeBetter

 

 

 

[cgnao]

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle...eptember353.xml

Mad Rush for Gold as Prices Dip

 

15 September 2008

 

Abu Dhabi — People, mostly Asians, have been flocking to the gold markets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai to buy coins and jewellery in the last couple of days as prices of the metal have dropped by Dh15 a gram.

 

The shops reported up to 300 per cent more business than in the days ahead of Eid Al Fitr last year. A jewellery shopkeeper at Hamdan Street in Abu Dhabi said he sold over 5kg of gold in a few hours on Sunday and some other said customers are buying gold as though it is being offered free.

[drbubb]

Some interesting commentary tonight on Al Jazeera (English), Max Keiser on commenting about where next for the markets and the US:

 

Lehman bankruptcy and financial meltdown

 

Host: Off live to Paris now. Max Keiser who is a financial journalist is there to join us now. Matthew was talking about who is going to be next. There will be more casualties do you think?

 

Max Keiser: Oh, of course. This was entirely predictable. As we’ve been predicting on these broadcasts actually. The neoliberal model which means that credit is available for almost free. Suddenly last summer credit was unavailable and then banks that need credit to live started to tumble. So this is gaining pace. There’s going to be no credit for banks because you’re talking about $700 trillion worth of debt in the global economy. The entire GDP of the world is something like $60 trillion, so this has a long way to go as you deflate all of this debt back into something that is more sustainable. But that number is a long way from here.

 

Host: What’s the doomsday scenario, Max?

 

Max: It’s not a doomsday scenario if you are in a developing country and you’ve got stuff, like oil in the Middle East; or if you’ve got huge savings like they do in China. It’ s only a doomsday scenario in America and Britain that have been living on borrowed money for generations. It’s a doomsday scenario for them. It’s a happy day for people who have savings, who have money, who have cash, who have stuff, who have oil, who have resources. There’s a decoupling in the wind. America is essentially finished as a global economic power. The US dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency. And we’re going to see now some other country rise up and takes its place. Most probably China.

 

Host: So the end of the world as we know it . . .

 

Max: You seem stunned.

 

Host: I’m stunned? Yes, of course, I am stunned. You said there was going to be a financial shift. That countries that aren’t rich at the moment are going to become rich. That those people who have money, only a little bit, are going to become a great deal richer. That those people who have pensions are going to lose out. It is the end of the world financially as we know it. It’s a new world coming.

 

Max: Look, George Bush himself, only a few weeks ago, said that the problems on Wall Street, is that Wall Street bankers were drunk. That’s a direct quote. It’s true. They’ve been drunk on easy money. Alan Greenspan, who you just profiled on the show, he is the number one supplier of cheap booze to this bacchanalia of credit and debt by keeping rates artificially low. And the developing world has been crying about this and screaming about this for decades. It’s completely unfair, you know. Trade is unfair. The US has the reserve currency. The US has dollar hegemony. Now the tables are turned. The US is on the receiving end of a huge problem that they themselves made. So, again, I say for the developing countries, there will be a period of adjustment but on the other side of this, you’re going to find developing countries winning because they have resources. The price of those resources is going to go up. The dollar is a short term harbor of safety. Trust me. Anyone buying the dollar today is going to be sorry that they did. Short term US Treasury bonds similarly. Once the primary trend resumes, the dollar goes down, US Treasuries go down. Foreign currencies go up. Oil goes up. And we’re going to see a new world order. Not to be overly dramatic about it but even Francis Fukuyama, who is a very famous philosopher in America, who called the end of history when the Berlin Wall came down - incorrectly - he is very good with the bon mot every now and then. He’s talking about a post America world and I think that’s true. America’s role as the driver of the global economy is finished.

 

Max talks about where will money in the markets now go......commodities, foods, oil and gold

 

SafeBetter

 

Interesting points.

I am working on a new article along these lines, so thnx for posting this