GOLD

[marmite]

Anyone going to the bullion dealers today ???? ATS, Goldline, Chards, Apmex ????

 

Please post a insight as to how busy they are. Are the queues building up

[Mr Pipples]

Thanks for the info, I appreciate you bringing it to our attention. 100:1 seems extreme, can you briefly elaborate as to why this is the case on this thread? My ratio of G:S is currently 4:1, which seems healthy to me.

 

Taken from Hoye's latest here: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye091508.html

 

The other important point has been that silver would plunge relative to gold, which it always does in a financial panic. The key turn in the gold/silver ratio was the low at 50.7 on May 23 when the credit markets resumed the horrendous trend to contraction. In discussing the transition we noted that at the end of the last U.S. banking calamity in late 1990 the ratio reached 100, which has been our target on this financial catastrophe. The breakout was at 54 which was exceeded on August 11 and this in itself was a signal on this crisis. The ratio is now at 71.

 

Taken from Mish's blog here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...eat-unwind.html

 

One additional point is that silver, unlike gold, might easily act more like an industrial commodity and less like a currency than gold. Gold's primary role is that of money. Silver is a higher risk/higher reward offering when it comes to deflation.

 

Will people think of silver as a monetary metal enough to outbalance it's treatment as a commodity? It seems that typically, this doesn't happen at times of financial crisis - but maybe this 'mother' of meltdowns will be different? To me, right now, silver seems a FAR, FAR more risky choice then maybe a lot of people on here seem to think. I wish it wasn't so!

 

I'd like to take encouragement from the spot/price difference on silver coins and small bars - but that situation only applies to the relatively v. small retail investor sector of the silver trade market and, with regard to shortages in these, it seems likely just down to temporary distribution and processing hold-ups rather then any real and lasting silver supply shortage.

 

It looks like I might have to face up to big loss and cash in/switch to gold - either that or take what looks to be a massive gamble. If inflation was back in the headlines instead of deflation, I'd feel a bit less worried as, even as a commodity, silver should do OK, but I still have doubts if I'll make up on my losses unless silver can win at becoming 'money'.

[romans holiday]

Mish and Bob Hoye are deflationists. But you never really hear them speaking often of dollar deflation/ price inflation.

 

I assume that as traditional deflationalists they think money will be OK. I am not so sure about this. If money itself deflates then surely both SILVER and gold will do well as alternative currencies.

 

 

Edit: Hoye's strength as a historian may also be his weakness in that he may be looking for the repetition of the past. Yet maybe it really is different this time.

[Johan van der Smut]

I hate to say this, but silver has just fallen off another cliff.

[Mr Pipples]

Mish and Bob Hoye are deflationists. But you never really hear them speaking often of dollar deflation/ price inflation.

 

I assume that as traditional deflationalists they think money will be OK. I am not so sure about this. If money itself deflates then surely both SILVER and gold will do well as alternative currencies.

 

 

Edit: Hoye's strength as a historian may also be his weakness in that he may be looking for the repetition of the past. Yet maybe it really is different this time.

 

They both believe gold will do well as a money in deflation... Just not/not sure about silver. Silver would only do well as an alternative currency IF it's 'money' value can win over its commodity value. If not, then it may fail even while gold succeeds. I think retail investors, for now, consider silver pretty much like gold but if the big boys/banks/etc don't then that might be the end of it. Maybe China's (historic?) treatment of silver as a monetary metal could play a crucial part here?

[G0ldfinger]

I hate to say this, but silver has just fallen off another cliff.

They will pave Wall Street with gold and silver just to show how well things are.

 

First time since Atlantis and El Dorado. I am really looking forward to this.

[stevecook172001]

I hate to say this, but silver has just fallen off another cliff.

Massive deflation is coming. It simply has to as a function of high commodity prices. Unlike some who argue that high commodity pricesd are entirely down to inflation of the dollar, I would suggesat that a good portion oif it is down to supply constraint which are themselves down to the price of oil which underpins the production and transportation costs of everyhting else.

 

It may be that we get as complete deflationary implosion of the global fiat system. who knows how fast this could all unravel. In whgich case gold and other p0recious metals will come into their own in terms of storage of waelth.

 

However, for the short term, holding fiat in the form of physical cash seems the way to go.

[G0ldfinger]

Massive deflation is coming. ...

I can see it. The ECB has just printed another €30bn, the BoE £5bn.

 

Wait a minute ...!

[wrongmove]

I can see it. The ECB has just printed another €30bn, the BoE £5bn.

 

Wait a minute ...!

 

They will try to play Canute, but I personally don't think they will succeed. Of course they have to try though. £5B is peanuts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[romans holiday]

They both believe gold will do well as a money in deflation... Just not/not sure about silver. Silver would only do well as an alternative currency IF it's 'money' value can win over its commodity value. If not, then it may fail even while gold succeeds. I think retail investors, for now, consider silver pretty much like gold but if the big boys/banks/etc don't then that might be the end of it. Maybe China's (historic?) treatment of silver as a monetary metal could play a crucial part here?

 

Oh yes, I realise they both think gold is good.... would not bother listening to anyone who didn't.

 

My point is that, if I remember correctly, I have not heard them speak of dollar debasement and a possible hyper-inflation. I am wondering if because they think money [along with gold] will be good, that is the reason why they see silver doing less well.

 

I think we do not have sound currencies this time round. In the last deflation money was backed by gold. But in these circumstances, where paper money is likely to be devalued, surely silver will do well, along with gold, for the simple reason that there will be less real money around.

 

Edit: I suspect they only focus on price deflation [and neglect questioning the soundness of the dollar] because inflationists and deflationists are split into two camps with two different "world views".

[warpig]

Thanks for the reply. I listened to the pod cast and he was certainly vague as to which historical crisis he gleaned this information from. As far as I'm concerned the only crisis I am prepared to compare this one to is the GD, do we know what the G:S ratio was at the peak of this crisis?

 

Taken from Hoye's latest here: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye091508.html

 

 

 

Taken from Mish's blog here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...eat-unwind.html

 

 

 

Will people think of silver as a monetary metal enough to outbalance it's treatment as a commodity? It seems that typically, this doesn't happen at times of financial crisis - but maybe this 'mother' of meltdowns will be different? To me, right now, silver seems a FAR, FAR more risky choice then maybe a lot of people on here seem to think. I wish it wasn't so!

 

I'd like to take encouragement from the spot/price difference on silver coins and small bars - but that situation only applies to the relatively v. small retail investor sector of the silver trade market and, with regard to shortages in these, it seems likely just down to temporary distribution and processing hold-ups rather then any real and lasting silver supply shortage.

 

It looks like I might have to face up to big loss and cash in/switch to gold - either that or take what looks to be a massive gamble. If inflation was back in the headlines instead of deflation, I'd feel a bit less worried as, even as a commodity, silver should do OK, but I still have doubts if I'll make up on my losses unless silver can win at becoming 'money'.

[warpig]

POG - 769 and still having seven shades of shit kicked fom it. What was it that someone once said, the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain...

[narco]

Good afternoon

 

I been away for a while and i'm looking to add some more physical silver bullion to my collection.

 

Can anyone point me to a website that sells kilo bars (not coininvestdirect)? I see goldline has a kilo bar at nearly 50% over spot premium!

[Steve Netwriter]

Ron Harrold

 

The Storm is Upon Us: Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM2QXmeRGcA&feature=user

 

It may be too late to evacuate. Hope you listened to crazies like me.

 

[warpig]

Silver or gold?

 

Good afternoon

 

I been away for a while and i'm looking to add some more physical silver bullion to my collection.

 

Can anyone point me to a website that sells kilo bars (not coininvestdirect)? I see goldline has a kilo bar at nearly 50% over spot premium!

 

[romans holiday]

POG - 769 and still having seven shades of shit kicked fom it. What was it that someone once said, the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain...

 

I thought gold was performing well. Gold up while oil is down. We have not seen that often.

 

Maybe a sign of things to come.

[Steve Netwriter]

Karl Denninger

 

Lehman, Bank America, Merrill and Idiot Nation

 

Folks, we've had plenty of time, and so has Wall Street to do the right thing. Now we're getting the consequences of NOT.

 

When will we stop this stupidity and TAKE RESPONSIBILITY? Ever?

 

Time to get off your duffs folks.

[narco]

Silver or gold?

I'm looking for a 1 kilo bar of silver, closest to spot if possible.

[electroweak]

I'm looking for a 1 kilo bar of silver, closest to spot if possible.

why not coininvest? (i am curious as i buy from them)

[marmite]

I'm looking for a 1 kilo bar of silver, closest to spot if possible.

 

I would give ATS or Chards a bell, but I expect the prices to be high over spot

 

[romans holiday]

Karl Denninger

 

Lehman, Bank America, Merrill and Idiot Nation

"You're goin to pay your own money back, out of your taxes, to yourself, out of your pocket, so the loss you suffered is real!"

 

http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=oHqUipinDyw

[G0ldfinger]

The ECB has just printed another €30bn, the BoE £5bn.

That's good too (hyper, hyper):

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

AIG Falls After Failing to Give Plan to Save Rating (Update1)

...

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the largest U.S. insurer by assets, fell by almost half in early trading as the company failed to present a plan to raise capital and stave off credit downgrades.

 

AIG executives spent yesterday in discussions with buyout firms including KKR & Co. and J.C. Flowers & Co. as the insurer sought to raise $20 billion in capital and sell $20 billion of assets, people familiar with the talks said. AIG later sought a $40 billion bridge loan from the Federal Reserve, the New York Times reported, citing an unnamed person.

...

``It seems more and more likely that AIG may go to the Federal Reserve window to borrow cash at the discount rate, should the Fed allow it,'' said Citigroup Inc. analyst Joshua Shanker ...

[warpig]

Me two and incidentally they are not suffering any supply shortages either, whatever is on their website they have in their warehouse.

 

why not coininvest? (i am curious as i buy from them)

 

[Mr Pipples]

Thanks for the reply. I listened to the pod cast and he was certainly vague as to which historical crisis he gleaned this information from. As far as I'm concerned the only crisis I am prepared to compare this one to is the GD, do we know what the G:S ratio was at the peak of this crisis?

 

Couldn't tell you that exactly, but from what I gather, silver didn't do well at all during the GD. But, as R.H. has just posted, paper currency back then was backed by gold so that was the obvious choice. It isn't now so that makes silver a definite candidate for treatment as a monetary metal - but whether it'll pull it off is the ?

[GTG]

Edit: Hoye's strength as a historian may also be his weakness in that he may be looking for the repetition of the past. Yet maybe it really is different this time.

 

FWIW, my thoughts exactly.

 

What you have got to ask yourself is, were all the exotic financial instruments we've heard about in existance in past busts?