notanewmember Posted September 11, 2008 Report Share Posted September 11, 2008 Has anyone listened to the recommended podcast by Bruce McCarthy about money, yet? It'll be interesting to hear posters views. If you haven't listened to it please go here to the podcast thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=57392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narrowescape Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Yay! Back above 750 For now at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Recent PoG developments seem to be making posters on this bb take more distinct stances, and debates are getting more confrontational. So I'd like to put my 2p-worth forward, and being a simple guy its a simple analysis. ...but I think it shows the forest for the trees: Relative currency values, plus a bubble in PoO have simply clouded the data, and so the core trends have generally been overlooked. To bypass this, I have plotted PoG as an average of USD and GBP - essentially treating gold like just another currency valued against a 'basket' of USD and GBP. Then I layer on the key recent events: 1. Investors get confident across the board in late 2005, so all market rose (including gold) until it got overstretched and corrected in May 2006 2. Credit crunch appears and shocks the world in August 2007, so gold starts a big run up, and overshoots again (not a 'bubble' though) 3. Bear Sterns collapses and Fed steps in to save the day, inspiring confidence that the credit crunch is manageable by the Fed and we're past the worst, causing gold to correct from its overbought status 4. Oil bubble reaches extreme level and bursts to start a long fall down, causing inflation fears to fade rapidly (unjustifiably) whilst deflation fears emerge (far too extreme), resulting in gold falling % by % with oil Now, some people seem to look at the world and feel convinced that broad and long term deflation is coming - in which case they naturally think the PoG chart will keep coming down from its current level Or, (like me) you feel that at USD 100 oil has basically now corrected (with 0-20% further to fall), you see the current high money supply figures, you realise the increasing large CB baleouts are creating even more money, and you are aware of how much inflationary pressure from abroad is still to be discounted, and you conclude that the current deflation obsession will soon switch back to a pannick about inflation (actually stagflation). In which case, you draw a nice sweeping parabolic curve through the last few years of PoG and buy on these dips! IMO this is a great post. I do make a point of reading your posts. It would be interesting (sorry) to see the Yen included in that basket of currencies. It appears to be a major factor, and unlike the other two, acts in the inverse, and so more like gold. Dare I say it, but one with a log scale would also be nice. Just to avoid claims of bubbles when displaying steady growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Has anyone listened to the recommended podcast by Bruce McCarthy about money, yet? It'll be interesting to hear posters views. If you haven't listened to it please go here to the podcast thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=57392 Thanks for the reminder. I had it listed to download, but couldn't until my broadband cap was lifted I download too many economics vids ! Listening now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 IMO this is a great post. I do make a point of reading your posts. It would be interesting (sorry) to see the Yen included in that basket of currencies. It appears to be a major factor, and unlike the other two, acts in the inverse, and so more like gold. Dare I say it, but one with a log scale would also be nice. Just to avoid claims of bubbles when displaying steady growth Steve - thanks for praising the post. Most of my posts are actually just my way of 'revising' all the issues. The PoG fall from 1000 has caused me a lot of work - but I learned a lot on the way (not least from posters on this bb), and I do remain confident. Indeed, I topped up on silver and oil these last few days. I now expect and somewhat hope for a PoO drop to 90 where I'll double up the oil and oil major investments. I feel almost the same about a further drop to 80, where I would double again. The downside at 80 however would be that gold might also follow it down by 20% - which would start to hurt financially (I'd be in striking distance of being in the red). What all this means is that now (PoO 100) or soon (PoO >80) will be the bottom. Perhaps DrB is right, and it is now. When oil turns, so will the defation/inflation perspective, and that's what we need for PMs to rally significantly. ..IMHO PS: I waffled there - I actually intended to just post that I'm due to go travelling this WE, and so can't oblige with the extra charting you sensibly suggested. Sorry! Perhaps someone else could oblige?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Or the Swiss Franc ? Yes. I've tried to find the "Yen versus gold" thread, and I can't ! Very frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 PS: I waffled there - I actually intended to just post that I'm due to go travelling this WE, and so can't oblige with the extra charting you sensibly suggested. Sorry! Perhaps someone else could oblige?? No worries, or hurry. You can do it when you get back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Must be pain out there! I m off to Jersey next week, might buy some duty free physical silver, [i m travelling too much] so when i m back, I expect the bull market to resume normal service! Could you let me know how you get on finding any,please? I'm going the week after next and was hoping to do the same, but won't have much time to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 I think we are getting the TURN here !! That's the bottom in Gold, Gold shares, Oil, and oil shares Here are THE REASONS: =============== = 1/ Gold has hit $736 = 2/ Oil has hit $100-ish = 3/ HUI has fallen to a OTP level of $260 ...etc So far, so good ! Gold has survived the London opening without a slide, and for the first time in many days, is now trading above the previous day's (24 hours previous) levels See: 3-days Chart Let's see if we will get a pick-up in NY trading. Oh, and the US dollar is sliding back from above USD-80.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Thanks for the reminder. I had it listed to download, but couldn't until my broadband cap was lifted I download too many economics vids ! Listening now I listened...he's quite funny. That was done in 1984 BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 I listened...he's quite funny. That was done in 1984 BTW And even after all that time you can still use gold as money :D Yes, he's quite a character from the sound of it. I still have part 4 to listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Has anyone listened to the recommended podcast by Bruce McCarthy about money, yet? It'll be interesting to hear posters views. If you haven't listened to it please go here to the podcast thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=57392 Hi notanewmember - yes, I gave it a listen. I found his fundamentalist christian bible-bashing too off-putting really, but I did listen to the end. I find it hard to listen to someone (even if they are correct) given their stated belief in magic moonbeams. He claims strict application of terms to his search for the truth about money and yet is able to swallow the contradictory drivel written in the bible. Shame really as I quite enjoyed it apart from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Jim Sinclair’s Commentary It would fit the 130 day plan nicely. Fed's next move could be to lower rates The central bank is likely to keep its key interest rate at 2% at its September 16 meeting but expectations are growing for a rate cut before year's end. By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer Last Updated: September 11, 2008: 5:28 PM EDT NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to once again hold a key interest rate at 2% when it meets on Tuesday, there is a growing sense that the Fed may have to cut rates by the end of the year. If the Fed does so, it would mark a dramatic change in the central bank's assessment of the economy. As recently as the Fed's last meeting in August, Fed members indicated that their next move would be to hike rates at some undetermined point in the future in order to fight inflation. The Fed typically lowers interest rates during an economic slowdown in order to stimulate more borrowing and looks to raise them when it is more concerned about inflation. The Fed slashed its federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that helps determine how much interest consumers and businesses pay on various types of loans, seven times from September of last year through April in an attempt to minimize the damage from the mortgage crisis and credit crunch. But the Fed has left rates unchanged at its past two meetings and started to indicate that it was growing more worried about rising commodity prices, particularly oil. http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/10/news/econo...tlook/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 im Sinclair’s Commentary This is it and it is now. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. The following sounds a lot like Monty. "Hennecke's stock allocations are mainly Asian-based, especially in the Chinese market as the country's government has a large amount of cash and the macroeconomics are fundamentally strong. He also suggested investing in gold, despite the recent fall in price." "Definitely, it (the dollar) is not a safe place to be invested in, as real inflation is closer to 10 or 11 percent than the actual inflation numbers given by the U.S. government," Hennecke said on "Worldwide Exchange". Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager By CNBC.com | 11 Sep 2008 | 09:11 AM ET The end result of the global economic slowdown may be the U.S. announcing national bankruptcy as the government cannot afford the bailouts that it promised and the market will not bail out the government, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche, told CNBC on Thursday. "We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe," Hennecke said on "Worldwide Exchange." US Heading for a Depression? The estimated $300 billion cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will probably be considered as a loss that the government will have to take, therefore passing it on to taxpayers, he explained. "We already have $3 trillion of debt, as far as the U.S. government is concerned. These debt figures across the U.S. economy are rising very sharply." http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Perverse US Dollar Rally Prelude to Financial System Collapse Interest-Rates / Financial Crash Sep 11, 2008 - 11:50 AM By: Jim_Willie_CB http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6226.html In truly perverse fashion, only in America, the USDollar is rallying as a prelude to a US financial system breakdown. Call it a blowoff top! The Wall Street carnival seems to celebrate anything to lift the USDollar, even recession and the death knell for USTreasurys. Nationalization is never a positive for financial prospects. A powerful reversal comes when intervention ammunition wanes and the reality of US bank system implosion returns. The rally could reach the 82 mark, if the reversal pattern reaches full completion. The three major factors pulling the US$ down are the bank losses, the housing decline, and the job loss situation. Nothing has changed with these factors, except they have worsened! My position is unshakable. The financial structure of the Untied States is besieged by powerful bankrupt insolvencies. 1) USGovt federal deficits are exploding, from war, from handouts, from recession, from bailouts. 2) US trade deficits are chronic and have risen over $60 billion monthly, soon to worsen from the US$ rise rendering harm to exports. 3) US banks are insolvent, with congames the only force forestalling bankruptcy as they continue to distort their balance sheets, while showing inability to raise needed cash in their replenishment. 4) US homeowners are now increasingly living with loans that reflect negative equity, as the proportion sits around one third in such upside-down living rooms. In the next few months, all four wrecked pillars will worsen dramatically. Fundamentals drive the USDollar lower. An assault on the USTreasurys will put the US$ into No Man's Land. The most dangerous reaction investors can make now is to believe the USDollar has begun a major new upleg. The second most dangerous reaction is to sell gold or silver into this climax of fraud, manipulation, bankruptcy, and protected larceny. .... My advised strategy since the beginning of the year has been to hold silver or gold in physical form, for at least one third of accounts, maybe more. .... THE DOOR SHUTS VERY SOON On the week of September 15 thru 19, some initial events are anticipated to occur. An important event schedule will be initiated. The party and celebration and corrupt raids should come to an end abruptly. Many possible events are offered in conjecture in the September Hat Trick Letter, due out late this weekend. In all, 13 powerful shock wave events are suggested as possible. Foreigners are watching the tainted party, viewing it as staged atop the heavily listing Titanic vessel. The four pillars of insolvency, plus the looming credit derivative roof crumple, seem not to matter. The entire global playing field, related to commerce and finance, is soon to be reshaped, with the Untied States becoming a bit player, or not invited. The turkey carving is nigh. ..... The latest economic myths are two: the USDollar is stronger and price inflation is gone. Neither is true. The foreign currencies have moved down, as their economies have slowed, as their own bank distress is evident. The US$ is a giant beneficiary of global debt liquidation, hardly a strength. The US$ rally is actually a signal of its imminent implosion or disappearance. It finishes with a rather ominous tsunami image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re-Inflation About to Send Gold and other Commodities Soaring Commodities / Resources Investing Sep 11, 2008 - 09:18 AM By: Money_and_Markets http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6224.html Larry Edelson writes.... Q: Larry, is the bull market in gold over? A: No way, no how. What we've seen is merely a major pullback in gold, a healthy pullback that will renew the bull market and lead to much higher gold prices down the road. ..... Q: What is your view on deflation? Many say we're headed for a deflationary collapse like we experienced during the Great Depression. What do you think? A: I do not agree with that view. Chief reason: The world is no longer on a gold standard. And central bankers are free to print money whenever they want. I do believe, however, that in the absence of a gold standard — deflation and inflation co-exist at the same time. For instance ... * We are currently witnessing deflation in real estate prices ... * We have, and will continue to experience, deflation in the value of the dollar — its price is falling, and it buys less and less ... * We are experiencing deflation in the cost of money — the price to borrow money, interest rates, is falling, and ... * We are experiencing deflation in other paper assets — for instance, the Dow Jones Industrials, which has lost nearly 72% of its purchasing power in the last seven years. Simultaneously ... * We are experiencing inflation in tangible assets ... * Inflation in the supply of money, and ... * Inflation in natural resources. So the big question is not whether the world is heading toward deflation or inflation, but rather — which sectors will inflate, and which will deflate in the years ahead? For many of the reasons I already mentioned in the gold, oil and natural resource questions above — I believe that deflation in the value of our money (its price and purchasing power are falling) ... and inflation in the value of hard assets — will continue for several more years. I also believe that at some point, real estate and even broad stock markets will join in and re-inflate, rising simultaneously with the bull markets in commodities and natural resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 The Great Unwinding of the Commodities Carry Trade Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008 Sep 12, 2008 - 02:33 AM By: Mike_Shedlock http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6228.html Carry Trade Blows Sky High An massive unwinding of the carry trade is now fueling the dollar rally. Huge speculation by traders shorting the Yen and going long the Euro, the Pound, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar is being unwound. Similarly there was massive speculation by traders shorting the dollar and going long the Euro, the Pound, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar. That too is being unwound. Those sorry bets were made on the misguided belief that Europe, Asia, and especially China would decouple from the US. In other words, massive bets were made that the tail would wag the dog. Now we see how foolish those bets were, especially for the Johnny Come Latelies who plowed into the trade just as it was about to reverse. New Zealand, Australia, Germany, Ireland, Spain, and the UK are in or rapidly sliding towards recession. This is an enormous fundamental factor and very supportive of a strengthening US dollar. The net effect of the unwinding of carry trades is the US dollar is rising against every major currency but the Yen, while the Yen is rising against everything. Mish's anti-conspiracy stance makes want to ask: "Would Fat Tony call him a naive sucker?". But he makes an interesting point about the carry trade unwinding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 So far, so good ! Gold has survived the London opening without a slide, and for the first time in many days, is now trading above the previous day's (24 hours previous) levels See: 3-days Chart Let's see if we will get a pick-up in NY trading. Oh, and the US dollar is sliding back from above USD-80.00 Steady as she goes so far, but it's usually around this time we get a kick in the knackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Steady as she goes so far, but it's usually around this time we get a kick in the knackers. Not looking good priced in £s at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotairmail Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Not looking good priced in £s at the moment. I thought that made gold cheaper to buy which is a 'good thing'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Not looking good priced in £s at the moment. Oh, didn't check that. Sterlings comeback will be short lived imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 I thought that made gold cheaper to buy which is a 'good thing'. Ah yes, got my wrong head on. Cheap gold everyone - hurrah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 With all the nationalization going on, the talking heads are getting nervous . "Hyper-inflation" and the "printing of money" was mentioned by the regular anchors today on CNBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Not looking good priced in £s at the moment. Dollar is down. OIH is up, and Oil/USO is up on decent volume. I think Gold will soon bounceback, after filling the gap Ideally, I would have wanted to see more upside volume in OIH. That's the main disappointment so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted September 12, 2008 Report Share Posted September 12, 2008 Ah yes, got my wrong head on. Cheap gold everyone - hurrah! To add ... I've just bought a bit more for my penance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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