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Another fledgeling leaves the HPC nest to join GEI ;)

Only signed up to HPC on Jan 08, so have nothing like the same contribution some of the others have brought to the forums.

I had a lurk on here on one of Dr Bubbs topics a few days ago (linked from HPC) and looked very interesting.

 

 

My 2 pence worth this that I think we will see a pull-back after gold breaks $1000 - which will almost certainly be this week.

Its a massive psychological barrier, it may have to break it a couple of times to gain support before we can start posting the rocket pics !

Just look whats happening with Oil at around $100.

I am looking to increase my Gold investment, which is currently at around 10% of my portfolio (7% physical, 3% GM).

(Also have about 5% Silver, which I want to increase to about 10%)

Would love to do it now, but want to wait to see what the support is like on the business end of $1000

Was thinking of increasing to around 20% if we see $1050

Is this a daft idea and I should just get in now???

 

The only good thing about HPC was the anti-goldbugs who added some 'balance' to the debate

I hope we have one or two here to add reasoned debate to this forum

 

 

Cheers,

Lloydie

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More like he was TOLD to sell the gold. Mr. Bean has no authority or any original idea.

 

 

Yes, in effect, told to. These career Quislings know that they have to play the game and obey their masters if they want to keep their snouts in the trough.

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What all that boiled down to was Oldie spent a lot time trying to get the link to Metal board worked out and he threw a temper tantrum when no-one liked it. He then went on to blame all the bad, rude, posters. Finally he threw his dummy out of the pram and started to cry. Pathetic.

;)B)

Some posters/mods just don't have any humor or self-distance at all.

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And there's me thinking I got banned for calling him Tony over at GHPC...

 

;)

 

Glad I found you all btw... B)

Hi Whoops. :)

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Hello

 

I paid off mortgage and saved a bit, found the gold thread on HPC about a year ago and have read the lot.

 

Put all the savings into gold in the summer and saved in honest money (including Ag) ever since, still wondering about when to exit but I am sure its years away.

 

48% gain so far (minus real UK inflation over that time) I am deeply indebted to GF and Pluto and many others who have contributed there.

 

I have spent time on here but like many feel a bit out of my depth so dont contribute much, but have learnt some.

 

 

48 per cent! Wow! And the bull has hardly snorted yet IMO - not workd out what I made yet because I've been in and out of gold and silver shares too, but it's probably around 35-40%. Tax free. No margin. Physical only as of 3- months ago.

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Good afternoon from downunder (the southern hemisphere rather than the dungeon that the gold thread at HPC went to ;) )

 

Anyone know if Cgano is here too? I enjoyed his posts!

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...

48% gain so far (minus real UK inflation over that time) I am deeply indebted to GF and Pluto and many others who have contributed there.

...

Good to hear you've done well. Obviously others have too. The important thing is to only invest what one can stomach to see fluctuate a lot. Sometimes a downswing can be unnerving. Anyway, I think gold could top out at some stage far in the future, if Jim Sinclairs scenario of a semi-gold standard does not come true. I am very aware of this and try and pay attention.

 

But Bernanke would have to hike to 15% to make me thinking about selling my gold position. ;)

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I have spent time on here but like many feel a bit out of my depth so dont contribute much, but have learnt some.

 

 

Ditto - have learned so much about PMs in the last 12-18 months.

Am just a bit miffed I didn't get into gold about 18 months ago when I first looked into it, when gold was around $650.

 

Funny thing is, relative to the guys in my office I'm something of an investment guru, but on here I'm out of my depth a little !

Keen to learn though, and will challenge / contribute where I can...

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Hi Whoops. ;)

 

Hi GF...

 

Suppose it was only a matter of time that we'd all end up conversing on another forum given the months of abuse we've been receiving from those who quite obviously failed to protect themselves in the manner prescribed by Jim Sinclair.

 

At least here we don't have to cringe every time CTT posts something obnoxious about gold or its investors.

 

Anyway, moving on to more important issues, how likely do you guys think a commercial signal failure in the silver market to be? I noted Trader Dan's comments over the weekend and had to have a laugh at Jason Hommel who envisages $350/oz silver in the near future because of it.

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Hi GF...

 

Suppose it was only a matter of time that we'd all end up conversing on another forum given the months of abuse we've been receiving from those who quite obviously failed to protect themselves in the manner prescribed by Jim Sinclair.

 

At least here we don't have to cringe every time CTT posts something obnoxious about gold or its investors.

 

Anyway, moving on to more important issues, how likely do you guys think a commercial signal failure in the silver market to be? I noted Trader Dan's comments over the weekend and had to have a laugh at Jason Hommel who envisages $350/oz silver in the near future because of it.

 

 

I'm a member of GATA and I would urge you all to join - it's only 100 quid a year, well worth it for the inside scoop from Bill Murphy, aka Midas. He's an ex-commodity trader and he did a piece on Friday devoted to Silver - he and a few other good folks think a commercial signal failure is playing out right now.

 

I recently sold 85% of my gold and bought phsical silver so that I am now about 90% in silver - gotta agree with GF that the ratio is heading south so I decide to take action - at some point I will convert back to gold 100%.

 

Anyhoos here are some snippets I posted at the GATA form ref silver and etc etc

 

 

Dan Norcini

 

“Notice that the commercial short category sharply reduced the number of outright short positions they have been carrying (-9,297). This occurred from Tuesday of last week through Tuesday of this week. Over that time frame, the price of silver rallied $1.22. If you look at the chart very carefully, you will observe that this is the first time this has occurred in which the funds HAVE NOT been reducing their net long position. In other words, this appears to be the beginnings of a commercial signal failure. Normally the commercial perma-shorts in silver have used fund long liquidation to cover their shorts as the market moved lower. Not this time - they are buying on the way up!”

...

This is going to be something worth watching next week to see if it continues or if things take a bit of a breather. Remember, it is a new calendar month on Monday and that often means brand new allocations of fund money to the markets. If that occurs, the silver shorts are in serious, serious trouble as the longs will show them not one ounce of mercy. Blood in the water draws sharks and the silver shorts are not only bleeding, they are hemorrhaging massively.

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/

 

and

 

Something from the silver assoc

 

 

The ironic thing is, the silver clouds ahead are showing that what silver investors have been waiting for is actually beginning to happen: An enormous short squeeze in the large commercial traders and industrial users. For years Ted Butler and others have been explaining how powerful commercial traders have been shorting into every silver rally through during the entire bull market thus far. Once the price has risen enough, they pull bids from under the market and force the price of silver to crash in days of gut-wrenching freefalls. Once the price has crashed, the commercials cover their positions at a profit and the cycle begins all over again. This has happened so often that silver mining investors have been programmed like Pavlov’s dog to dump silver miners as soon as silver moves up.

 

 

 

 

But something different appears to be happening this time. In the past week silver has broken out from its trading range in Euro’s and launched from $17 to $19.50. While it would be expected for the commercials to short more, open interest has plummeted from 189,151 on 2/19/08 to 167,000 on 2/29/08. From 2/19/08 to 2/26/08 the commercial net short positions fell from 75,790 to 73,149. It may take two weeks for the silver COT report to confirm this, however I believe this shows that the large commercial traders have covered an additional 2,000 to 3,000 short silver contracts in the last 3 days – in a classic short squeeze.

 

 

 

Given that silver is at a multi-decade high, it’s fair to say that all short positions are currently under water. Given that silver has risen from 11 to almost 20 in less than six months, and open interest is also at a historical high, it’s also fair to say that the large commercial traders are suffering from major losses in the billions of dollars. Ironically, the very same credit and insolvency problems that are tanking most markets may be the biggest driver in a silver short squeeze. One year ago, banks had excessive liquidity to back up short sales and derivative manipulation of silver. However, today banks are likely to close out any positions that don’t immediately create a profit for them because they are desperate to raise cash in order to survive.

 

 

 

This implies that silver could launch much, much higher over a very short period of time. It also implies that everyone waiting for silver to crash before they buy could be very disappointed as it could create a new price baseline above current levels in the coming months.

 

 

 

I have read several articles recently arguing that investors should sell their miners and buy silver instead. While I do believe investors should hold a core position of silver, given the current valuation of silver miners, I think its untimely advice. That might have been great advice in 2007, but we have finally reached the point of price insanity in the mining sector. Most silver miners are priced as if silver was $13, and it looks unlikely that silver will fall to those levels ever again given that the 200 day moving average is $14.17 and screaming higher. If silver prices hold $20 this year, many silver producers will have PE ratios under 10 at their current prices.

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Good afternoon from downunder (the southern hemisphere rather than the dungeon that the gold thread at HPC went to ;) )

 

Anyone know if Cgano is here too? I enjoyed his posts!

 

Yeah this one is good

 

Slowly, slowly, the idiots are beginning to understand it.

 

In a futile, desperate attempt to save the system, central banks are decimating the purchasing power of all currencies. This will lead to total loss of confidence in the international monetary and banking system, utter financial and social chaos and ultimately a return to the gold standard by popular demand.

 

This is all you need to know and is 100% correct, guaranteed. All else is pure and simple BS.

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Jeez, I've been practically the only person commenting on gold on here for a while.

 

And now I can't keep up with all the comments.

 

Great to see all you guys on here.

 

Can I ask you all to vote on this thread please:

 

Poll: How do you feel about things at the moment?

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2760

 

It would be very interesting to see if your votes change the overall feeling on that vote.

I've felt a little extreme on here...with my "the world is going to end" vote.

 

Poor DrBubb is going to get a huge shock when he next logs in ;)

Steve

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...

Anyway, moving on to more important issues, how likely do you guys think a commercial signal failure in the silver market to be? I noted Trader Dan's comments over the weekend and had to have a laugh at Jason Hommel who envisages $350/oz silver in the near future because of it.

 

I was eluding on this a few posts earlier. And then posted these charts:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=30030

 

They make me think gold-silver 40:1-35:1 and gold $1,050 and silver $25-$30 has a good chance from here. Maybe 50:50.

Norcini sees gold-silver support already at 46:1 from a monthly chart. He might be right. I am more optimistic, but what do I know (when compared with Dan N.).

 

The short squeeze in silver seems to be forming. From the 1985 chart we see that this simply happens every now and then, and the ratio collapses very sudden, only to snap back as suddenly. I think we're in such a breakdown right now. Question is only how deep will it go.

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I was eluding on this a few posts earlier. And then posted these charts:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=30030

 

They make me think gold-silver 40:1-35:1 and gold $1,050 and silver $25-$30 has a good chance from here. Maybe 50:50.

Norcini sees gold-silver support already at 46:1 from a monthly chart. He might be right. I am more optimistic, but what do I know (when compared with Dan N.).

 

The short squeeze in silver seems to be forming. From the 1985 chart we see that this simply happens every now and then, and the ratio collapses very sudden, only to snap back as suddenly. I think we're in such a breakdown right now. Question is only how deep will it go.

 

 

With silver, timing is of the essence - you will only have a short window to get out and go into gold - there was an awesome article recently (3-4 months ago?) about this, and basically saying that one's perhaps preconceived notions about how silver spikes/plays out may be totally incorrect - I think it was by Adrian Douglas or someone like that - I'll see if I can paste it in here if I can find it! This fits in with Jim Sinclair's recent comments in Toronto...see below...

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With silver, timing is of the essence - you will only have a short window to get out and go into gold - there was an awesome article recently (3-4 months ago?) about this, and basically saying that one's perhaps preconceived notions about how silver spikes/plays out may be totally incorrect - I think it was by Adrian Douglas or someone like that - I'll see if I can paste it in here if I can find it! This fits in with Jim Sinclair's recent comments in Toronto...see below...

 

 

Please find below comments from from Kitco gold forum user (Igor01). He claims to have attended JS meeting in Toronto.

 

--

 

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?p=192398#post192398

 

He was asked about the $1650 being too low an estimate and he said "remember back when gold was $250 and I predicted it will go to $1650, everybody thought I was a nut because it was too high, now they think I am a nut because it's too low". He said that it's possible that his price prediction is too conservative, but that's the price level he absolutely knows gold to reach sometime before 2011, it may exceed that but he can only talk about what he "knows for sure". He reaffirmed that this time after gold reaches the high, it will not come down like in 1980, but will continue to float in a +-200 points range, unlike silver that will shoot up with gold but will come down after it reaches the peak. He talked about the scenario he believes is going to be implemented by TPTB (the Revitalized and Modernized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate ratio) and explained it in greater depth. He said he did not believe that a social breakdown scenario "a-la Mad Max" was coming, simply because it would not be profitable to TPTB. He believes that USD is going to 0.5200 but should not fall lower for the same reason there will be no widespread social unrest, "it's simply not profitable". He said that should any unrest break out, it is likely to be put down with extreme brutality to make sure it doesn't spread. He talked about the one corporate entity that's on the long side of the gold hedges and derivatives, in his view they are doing it not to accumulate gold since it is relatively small market, but to assume control of future production of minerals like like gold, copper, platinum, rhodium etc, this will put this entity in the position of immense wealth and power.

 

There was a lot more things he talked about and also took questions for two hours. Overall, the session was everything I expected and much more. It just amazes me that he would do this for a bunch of people he's never met and will likely never see again, Jim has made his money and doesn't need to do this for us, especially since he doesn't charge for his ideas and doesn't give any stock tips. Yet, he went to the trouble of renting what must be a very expensive venue at the dowtown Toronto Marriott and spend over 3 hours sharing his insights and answering questions from total strangers without asking for anyting in return. There was a pretty bad snow storm that day and he stretched out the meeting until his associates had to almost drag him to his limo since he had to make a flight and getting there on time in Friday night traffic during a snowstorm was somewhat problematic. And, like I mentioned earlier, it was just amazing to see people that came just for this three hour meeting from all over the US, Europe and Asia, I guess I am very lucky that I work only a five minute walk from the Marriott

 

I've recorded the session, the three hours resulted in a 176 MB mp3 file and intend to listen to it several times, Jim's talk is so information-rich that it will take me a few times to get it fully digested, and the fact that English is not my first (or even second) language is certainly not helping

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There was a lot more things he talked about and also took questions for two hours. Overall, the session was everything I expected and much more. It just amazes me that he would do this for a bunch of people he's never met and will likely never see again, Jim has made his money and doesn't need to do this for us, especially since he doesn't charge for his ideas and doesn't give any stock tips. Yet, he went to the trouble of renting what must be a very expensive venue at the dowtown Toronto Marriott and spend over 3 hours sharing his insights and answering questions from total strangers without asking for anyting in return.

 

Yes, exactly. My thoughts too. I wish I could have gone.

 

Many thanks for posting that. Brilliant.

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Welcome! Enjoyed your post on HPC recently.

Thank you, Mr G0ldfinger for your welcome and especially for starting this thread. Already I feel it's better over here. Let's hope our good DrBubb doesn't mind maybe the gold thread living here.

 

@Billy. Thanks for the link to the JS Q&A session which I hope to listen to tomorrow.

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So will we all go back if they restore the gold thread? Is this Dr Bubbs website?

 

 

Thanks to all you guys for your input over the last few years. I have learned allot. It is important for me to keep my finger on the pulse as I have sold to rent and gone very heavy into PM. I have no regrets (yet). Except that I should have "protected" myself sooner and I might of got better deals on the Ag and Au for my money had I shopped around. But, I sold my house at the top of the market, bought PM over the last 2 months and I'm already £20,000 up and house prices are clearly going down.

 

A few questions, I wanted to buy physical silver and went to ATS and they sold me Umicore 1kg bars. Do you think I should have asked for Argor or Johnson Matthey bars etc? Or does it not really matter?

 

Narco recommended the Coininvestdirect.com website which is cheaper than ATS. 1KG of gold was about £16,000 but at ATS it was £16,400 so I regret not having asked sooner!

 

I am not rich or a big investor but I'm trying to do the right thing for my family so I can help the kids on the property ladder when the time comes.

 

Any hows, the gold thread lives on.

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Wow!

 

71 posts in this thread already since last night!!!

 

Maybe this could bring some more contributors to the other sections of this forum.

 

GEI is a great forum for investment education, it only drawback being that sometimes it's possible to see tumbleweeds rolling through it from so few and infrequent postings.

 

Here's hoping some of the other threads and subjects receive even a small increased percentage as this Gold thread is getting.

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Morning all!

 

I'm another HPC convert.

 

I took a look around this site a year or so ago and liked what I saw. However, the "critical mass" of info was over at HPC.co.uk and as time is precious, I generally lurked there.

 

As I think we all appreciate, it's the members who make or break a forum. If most of the more intelligent investment-focussed posters are here at GEI then this is most definitely where I'll be spending my time from now on.

 

Last summer's warnings/info on:

1) The impending credit crunch

2) GBP's impending weakness

3) Gold and Silver as a protective safe haven

... have "saved" or "made" (whichever way you look at it) me a substantial quantity of money (by whatever measure you use). And for that I *really* thank HPC posters including Goldfinger, cgnao, et al.

 

Anyway, sorry to drag the thread down with dull stuff about myself. I look forward to contributing to this thread and the wider forum going forward.

 

Bring on the rockets!

 

Bobsta

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WOW,

 

DrBubb is going to have a big surprise to find all you guys here! He clearly has'nt noticed yet since he would have posted if he had.

 

Seems we are benefiting from the gold exodus from HPC ...... throwing out all the visionaries ....... welcome all!

 

*wonder if DrBubb's little website can handle increased flow of visitors*

 

I have Gold ..... only 6 Krugerrands and 10 sovereigns (not sure I could sell the sovereigns - they are so sexy). But im also into property - saw the crash coming sold in UK & bought overseas in a place fairly immune to the GHPC due to its location (Hungary - look at a map).

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