GOLD

[woody]

Same with me, lifes stressful enough - and it only money we're talking about here :-)

Furthermore, I'd never take my eyes off the screen and attend to my day job !

 

Price looks like its holding, but I suspect there may be a few quite hot terminals on the gold exchanges

...now the buying should start (hopefully)

 

Looks like the bulls are back in charge. Real sharp uptick that!

[gooner]

Looks like the bulls are back in charge. Real sharp uptick that!

 

watta ride, watta ride.

 

Titanic battle today

[romans holiday]

Same with me, lifes stressful enough - and it's only money we're talking about here :-)

Furthermore, I'd never take my eyes off the screen if trading, and so would never attend to my day job !

 

Price looks like its holding, but I suspect there may be a few quite hot terminals on the gold exchanges

...now the buying should start (hopefully)

 

I plan to keep buying where I can while it is under a $1000. That is my plan anyway, I do not know if I will be able to resist gold even at higher prices.

[woody]

watta ride, watta ride.

 

Titanic battle today

 

Getting very difficult to call now. Maybe time to switch the screen off for today :-)

[gooner]

Getting very difficult to call now. Maybe time to switch the screen off for today :-)

I think you're right - I'm gonna go home, wash my hands and check all the light switches are off ...... a couple of times. Twitch twitch.

[romans holiday]

Interesting article on deflation here. Succinctly stated.

 

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

 

Just a thought, but maybe all this talk of inflation [just re-priced commodities due to global competition and a weak dollar] is a red herring. Perhaps the bigger story is credit deflation.

 

'Gold rose in the great depression, and it is poised to do so again. Recent action (the last several years) in gold is very consistent with deflationary theory about the destruction of credit. Gold, unlike fiat, is no one else's liability. Money with that attribute (and gold is money), should rise under these conditions.'

 

 

Another nice article on topic here:

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1214505689.php

[bitbigt]

Interesting article on deflation here. Succinctly stated.

 

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

With respect, I'd rather disagree with the thesis in that article, because...

 

- Once the fire is built, you don't need to keep piling wood on it (i.e., more money on top of a decade of masses of sky-high money supply) for it to flare up from a few small flames into a blaze, and even taking a few logs off won't stop it if the pile is big enough

 

- CBs have been giving even more money away (OK, rolling over loans indefinately) since last august adding more fuel to the fire

 

- SWF piggy banks are full, and they're increasingly putting those dollars to work in alternative investments (espec commodities)

 

- the wage-cost spiral is kicking in big time in the East, pushing up salaries and costs of commodities

 

In short, there's a massive inflation pendulum now swinging back to the West after we passed all that money to Asia for 10+ years, and its being accelerated towards us by SWFs panicking about dollar strength and by recent CB handouts to financial institutions. Inflation has, for the first time ever, become a global problem, and wage-cost effects are already in play. So how in the hell are prices not going to keep going up for some time yet?

 

Any recession induced pull-back in prices is years away (2010 at earliest, and perhaps much later), that's if it ever happens (because it will be very difficult to destroy all the money thats been created in the last 10 years), by which time gold will have peaked and I'll have sold my stash :-)

[bitbigt]

Getting very difficult to call now. Maybe time to switch the screen off for today :-)

Current score GoldBugs 3 : PPT 2 ...now well into the first half, and the opponents attackers are getting tired

[woody]

Current score GoldBugs 3 : PPT 2 ...now well into the first half, and the opponents attackers are getting tired

 

Yeah, looking good now. Stocks easing and oil rallying which is a big positive.

 

My short worked well (out at $920) but that choppiness after was a bit painful! Thankfully it has calmed down a bit now and looking good for a positive run.

[romans holiday]

With respect, I'd rather disagree with the thesis in that article, because...

 

- Once the fire is built, you don't need to keep piling wood on it (i.e., more money on top of a decade of masses of sky-high money supply) for it to flare up from a few small flames into a blaze, and even taking a few logs off won't stop it if the pile is big enough

 

- CBs have been giving even more money away (OK, rolling over loans indefinately) since last august adding more fuel to the fire

 

- SWF piggy banks are full, and they're increasingly putting those dollars to work in alternative investments (espec commodities)

 

- the wage-cost spiral is kicking in big time in the East, pushing up salaries and costs of commodities

 

In short, there's a massive inflation pendulum now swinging back to the West after we passed all that money to Asia for 10+ years, and its being accelerated towards us by SWFs panicking about dollar strength and by recent CB handouts to financial institutions. Inflation has, for the first time ever, become a global problem, and wage-cost effects are already in play. So how in the hell are prices not going to keep going up for some time yet?

Any recession induced pull-back in prices is years away (2010 at earliest, and perhaps much later), that's if it ever happens (because it will be very difficult to destroy all the money thats been created in the last 10 years), by which time gold will have peaked and I'll have sold my stash :-)

 

Yes, there are good arguments for both sides of the coin.

 

I wonder if maybe "decoupling" may come to consist of inflation in the East and deflation in the West.. In this scenario, prices will continue to go up in the West until things are simply unaffordable. At that point they will no longer be exported to the West but consumed in the East.

 

My opinions are not fully thought through.

[electroweak]

They're making attempts to smack it down.. the drop the last few minutes was pretty fast!

[alexreeve]

Interesting article on deflation here. Succinctly stated.

 

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

 

Just a thought, but maybe all this talk of inflation [just re-priced commodities due to global competition and a weak dollar] is a red herring. Perhaps the bigger story is credit deflation.

 

'Gold rose in the great depression, and it is poised to do so again. Recent action (the last several years) in gold is very consistent with deflationary theory about the destruction of credit. Gold, unlike fiat, is no one else's liability. Money with that attribute (and gold is money), should rise under these conditions.'

 

 

Another nice article on topic here:

http://news.goldseek.com/DailyReckoning/1214505689.php

This certainly works if the credit is destroyed rather than monetised by CBs. In the event it is monetised you get hyper-inflation. Either eventuality is good for gold, but bad for the economy.

[romans holiday]

This certainly works if the credit is destroyed rather than monetised by CBs. In the event it is monetised you get hyper-inflation. Either eventuality is good for gold, but bad for the economy.

 

Yes, but credit [the availability of] is also being withdrawn from the consumer and the larger economy. Watch for credit cards to go next.

 

Yep, gold is good for any monetary crisis whichever way it goes. Another article here looking at Japan's deflation.

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ul-kasriel.html

[bitbigt]

I wonder if maybe "decoupling" may come to consist of inflation in the East and deflation in the West.. In this scenario, prices will continue to go up in the West until things are simply unaffordable. At that point they will no longer be exported to the West but consumed in the East.

 

My guess is that the East will share their inflation with the West for a year or two. This global inflation monster will push the West into recession for several years (since we've no money or borrowing-capacity left here to restimulate things, and most Westerners are basically too lazy for the lifestyles they 'expect'). In contrast, the East does have the option of decoupling their currencies from the dollar and increasing interest rates, and then working hard and spending their vast national currency reserves on fighting their way through the economic challenges to start regrowing rapidly during the second decade of the noughties.

 

At the end of this, the whole world will be 'normalised': West will have a lower standard of living than current, and East will have a higher standard of living than current. Oh yes, and the dollar will be worthless compared to current, and no longer the researve currency! [....so start buying Euros ...or Yaun if you know how to (please tell me if so!!!!!)]

 

PS: Just heard on radio one that people should buy gold in these inflationary times: here we go!!!!!!!

[bitbigt]

Current score GoldBugs 3 : PPT 2 ...now well into the first half, and the opponents attackers are getting tired

 

Early goals in 2nd half... now 6 : 2 ....home team looking demoralized.

 

[alexreeve]

Yes, but credit [the availability of] is also being withdrawn from the consumer and the larger economy. Watch for credit cards to go next.

 

Yep, gold is good for any monetary crisis whichever way it goes. Another article here looking at Japan's deflation.

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ul-kasriel.html

In the article:

 

Short of the Fed depositing newly-created money directly into private sector accounts, I suspect that a deflation would occur under these circumstances

Is he laughingly dismissing the possiblility of banks swapping their defaulting loans for treasury bills? Or the notion of giving everyone cash in the form of a "tax rebate"?

[sossij]

Taken out $926, $50+ in two days

[romans holiday]

In the article:

 

 

Is he laughingly dismissing the possiblility of banks swapping their defaulting loans for treasury bills? Or the notion of giving everyone cash in the form of a "tax rebate"?

 

I suspect the amount the FED has supplied so far in "tax rebates" and "bail outs" is insignificant in comparison to the tidal wave of defaults and bankruptcies that may come. I can not see hyper-inflation as an option therefore the end game of deflation looks more probable. I liked the phrase "zombification" used to refer to banks no longer able to function.

[Gatesy]

Being the end of the month they may try to smash it back. BTW Eric King on FSNH was saying something about options being closed at the end of June so expect a drop at the beginning of July. I don't trade, just buy and hold but I wonder if selling, say, 10% today to buy back in a couple of weeks might be a bit of fun... I must say I'm tempted.

I played that game last night after silvers move up and I am regretting it at the moment, but must be patient as the point is to look for falls next week and buy back in...

[sossij]

I played that game last night after silvers move up and I am regretting it at the moment, but must be patient as the point is to look for falls next week and buy back in...

 

I'm glad I stayed put. I'm too much of a scaredy cat to trade. I hope you come out ok

[HPCSucks]

I'm glad I stayed put. I'm too much of a scaredy cat to trade. I hope you come out ok

I've been sitting and watching Gold for years now. With time I no longer have any emotions with the ups or downs. I used to mind. Sometimes I buy a bit more though.

[Gatesy]

I've been sitting and watching Gold for years now. With time I no longer have any emotions with the ups or downs. I used to mind. Sometimes I buy a bit more though.

Superb. Hope I can feel the same one day.

[Justin Thyme]

I'm glad I stayed put. I'm too much of a scaredy cat to trade. I hope you come out ok

 

You could do a lot worse than pay attention to Marceau's occasional musings. I don't mind admitting that I took some of his short-term bearishess on board and tried as best I could to avoid the dyed-in-the-wool goldbug mentality and as a result, I've banked some very handsome profits this week both on gold itself and long positions on depressed miners. For example, Randgold Resources had taken an absolute pounding last week - got down to £18 - a long trade was a no-brainer with the Fed hold just around the corner - It closed today at £22.60

 

 

 

[cgnao]

I've been sitting and watching Gold for years now. With time I no longer have any emotions with the ups or downs. I used to mind. Sometimes I buy a bit more though.

 

I quite like your user id.

[bitbigt]

Expect quite a battle [today], and my guess is it'll go up :-)

...I love it when I'm right

 

(and don't worry, I'll also post and admit when I'm wrong!!)