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Six posts attempting to discuss where this topic should be located removed.

 

Topic now closed.

The HPC gold thread is now officially dead. :(

 

 

...

I accept that any replies won't count as investment advice, but I'm aware that many of you may speak from the stand-point of already having significant holdings (which, of course, were purchased at a cheaper price), rather than considering the position of currently having no holding at all.

 

Thanks, as ever, for any thoughts!

As I am basically fully invested, I am waiting on the sideline right now, not sure whether to buy miners with the little spare cash I have, or more bullion.

 

If you want to get in NOW, I would suggest you average in. Say, you want to give yourself 4 weeks, or 8 weeks, and then you buy every week with 1/4 or 1/8 of your cash, preferably on what looks like a dip. That's just MHO.

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Interesting stuff going on (see also

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=999324 ).

 

Although, I could not find the actual article.

 

VietNamNet Bridge – The dollar price keeps sliding, VND is short, banks refuse to buy dollar, these are the main features of the monetary market at the current moment.

 

On the afternoon of March 3, we came to Thanh Cong Branch of Vietcombank in Hanoi and said we wanted to sell dollars, but the officers here refused to buy. Many other people there, who also brought in dollars to sell, had to bring dollars back home. Some of them said that they had come to several other banks before going there, but still could not sell dollars.

 

Linh, one of the people, related that she was trying to sell a big volume of dollars to get VND for other investment deals, but all the banks said they did not have any demand for dollars. “I’m losing tens of millions of VND a day due to the dollar price slide,” Linh said.

 

A reader in HCM City wrote to VietNamNet that on February 28, he came to Phuong Nam Bank to take back the matured deposit worth $10,000. The client suggested sell the $10,000 to the bank to get VND, but the bank’s officer said that the bank did not need more dollars, and that if the client really wanted to sell dollars, the bank could help make transactions with the brokerage fee of 2%.

 

The problem with selling the dollar began several days ago, when the dollar price was sliding on the black market, while the gold price was skyrocketing. A lot of people, who have been frightened by the dollar value decrease, have decided to sell dollars to buy gold for hoarding.

 

Nguyen Thanh Truc, Director of Agribank’s Gold and Silver Company, said that sometimes the company’s transaction offices have to refuse to buy dollars from individual clients.

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This is my view on silver:

 

SilverUS_080305_log.gif

 

It's much like the charts quite a few others have done, but I've added my interpretation of the current small dip.

I think it could go a lot higher (25 to 30) and return to about here, but I don't see it dropping much at the moment.

 

 

To answer the question about whether to buy now.

One way is to buy some each week say. That way you're less likely to buy on a peak.

It's difficult isn't it. From my relatively small amount of experience, it's better to research and gain more conviction early, then to dither for too long, as you just end up wishing you'd bought more earlier.

 

If people like Jim Sinclair are right (and with the way things are it's almost impossible to think of any way they can't be), then it really doesn't matter what you pay now, because in a few months time you'll wonder why you spent so much time trying to get the best price when it's gone up so much.

IMO at least have say 10% gold as insurance ASAP.

 

 

Maybe this one will help with gold.

It's the log version of the one I posted before.

I think it's interesting to compare the current bull market with the 1970s one.

Note the slopes.

I know some think Jim's prediction is now too low, but it does happen to fit nicely on the straight line up to 10,000.

 

GoldUS_080220_10000_prediction_log2.gif

 

That's me for the night.

Steve

 

EDIT PS That's 22% per year to get from $980 to $10,000 by 2020.

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This is my view on silver:

 

SilverUS_080305_log.gif

 

It's much like the charts quite a few others have done, but I've added my interpretation of the current small dip.

I think it could go a lot higher (25 to 30) and return to about here, but I don't see it dropping much at the moment.

 

 

To answer the question about whether to buy now.

One way is to buy some each week say. That way you're less likely to buy on a peak.

It's difficult isn't it. From my relatively small amount of experience, it's better to research and gain more conviction early, then to dither for too long, as you just end up wishing you'd bought more earlier.

If people like Jim Sinclair are right (and with the way things are it's almost impossible to think of any way they can't be), then it really doesn't matter what you pay now, because in a few months time you'll wonder why you spent so much time trying to get the best price when it's gone up so much.

IMO at least have say 10% gold as insurance ASAP.

 

 

Maybe this one will help with gold.

It's the log version of the one I posted before.

I think it's interesting to compare the current bull market with the 1970s one.

Note the slopes.

I know some think Jim's prediction is now too low, but it does happen to fit nicely on the straight line up to 10,000.

 

GoldUS_080220_10000_prediction_log2.gif

 

That's me for the night.

Steve

 

EDIT PS That's 22% per year to get from $980 to $10,000 by 2020.

 

This is and always has been my strategy, in fact I have been and am continiung to accumulate using a few 000k I have raised.

 

The correction seems to be gathering momentum, use it to average in IMO.

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A HPC is a foregone conclusion IMO and it's how the markets react that is the really interesting part, so I hope you don't mind me tagging along for the ride.

 

I find it really short sighted that deflationists are starting to cite a gold bubble! Yes in a booming economy, this would be the traditional train of thought, but not now... Can't they see what's happening?

 

Cheers,

 

Craig.

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These people don't understand at all. It's not a commodity bubble. It's a fiat currency collapse.

 

Talk of gold's demise is a joke. We're still above last week's prices!! :(

 

Indeed... didn't prices of everything fall across the board yesterday?

 

So why do they pick on gold... hmmm, jealousy or lack of understanding spring to mind.

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Just to say I think it would be helpfull to this site to click all available ads once a day to help La' Bubb for putting up with us ?

Anyone agree? :(

Good idea. I've never clicked on ads before. But started here today. (I see a lot of bullion ads!)

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It's going to be interesting in New York today. Will they kick gold in the back? Or will we see strong dip buying?

 

Deflation :lol::(:lol:

 

Looks like London likes yellow bricks, New York the usual 3pm est smack down coming up 100% guaranteed.

gold getting a nice spike now, must be the bond news in Europe.

 

I will go over and post a rocket in the deflation thread now. :lol:

post-1607-1204726629_thumb.png

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I've never attempted to trade in and out of the gold/silver market - buy and hold has held me in good stead. If the prices really do explode they'll have no regard for DMAs or tech analysis. I look at the long term graph and don't worry about the ups and downs - if I did I'd have stomach ulcers by now :(

 

Regards,

crude

 

Never sold and its back above $20. Still might so the proceeds can go into the wifes pension and fire into HOGS & CATL when the price dips further (see thread in Agri section). I've not sold any bullion as yet either physical or otherwise but at $20 thats a good profit as never paid over $11.

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Never sold and its back above $20. Still might so the proceeds can go into the wifes pension and fire into HOGS & CATL when the price dips further (see thread in Agri section). I've not sold any bullion as yet either physical or otherwise but at $20 thats a good profit as never paid over $11.

I am holding on for $25-$30. :(

 

Gold-Silver_Scatter_LOG_GUESS.png

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Indeed... didn't prices of everything fall across the board yesterday?

 

So why do they pick on gold... hmmm, jealousy or lack of understanding spring to mind.

 

Here's my gold sceptic thought of the day, feel free to skip it if you only like hearing pro-gold views:

 

One thing that worries me about the attitudes of current goldbugs is that they are developing a bubble mentality, together with some seriously defensive psychological tactics. So any drop in price is a temporary drop, probably as a result of cartel conspiracy. Anyone who says anything bad about gold must be jealous or scared, or a gold-hater. And so on.

 

My opinion is that the gold run has further to go, possibly a lot further, and I'm pleased for anyone who does well out of it. But history tells us that gold also has the potential to eventually peak and crash, and with all these defensive attitudes being reinforced by a long gold bull run, I worry that people will be left without the critical tools for perceiving a bubble forming.

 

I'd also note that almost all the things people are saying now about gold were being said in the late 1970s. Fiat was about to crash, gold was real money, the only safe store of wealth, etc etc. And then it peaked and crashed and a lot of people lost out big time.

 

My suggestion would be that whatever you say about gold, try using the same language about shares or property and seeing how plausible it sounds then. That might help give you a clue as to whether you are being rational or participating in bubble mentality.

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I agree with you to a point, but IMO there won't be a correction until the subprime mess is firmly behind us, which given the recession we are verging on could very well be years away. I suppose the comfort blanket that gold bugs have is that we are still not in line with inflation for this commodity, as we get closer I'm sure you will start to see less confidence in the market.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

 

Here's my gold sceptic thought of the day, feel free to skip it if you only like hearing pro-gold views:

 

One thing that worries me about the attitudes of current goldbugs is that they are developing a bubble mentality, together with some seriously defensive psychological tactics. So any drop in price is a temporary drop, probably as a result of cartel conspiracy. Anyone who says anything bad about gold must be jealous or scared, or a gold-hater. And so on.

 

My opinion is that the gold run has further to go, possibly a lot further, and I'm pleased for anyone who does well out of it. But history tells us that gold also has the potential to eventually peak and crash, and with all these defensive attitudes being reinforced by a long gold bull run, I worry that people will be left without the critical tools for perceiving a bubble forming.

 

I'd also note that almost all the things people are saying now about gold were being said in the late 1970s. Fiat was about to crash, gold was real money, the only safe store of wealth, etc etc. And then it peaked and crashed and a lot of people lost out big time.

 

My suggestion would be that whatever you say about gold, try using the same language about shares or property and seeing how plausible it sounds then. That might help give you a clue as to whether you are being rational or participating in bubble mentality.

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...

My suggestion would be that whatever you say about gold, try using the same language about shares or property and seeing how plausible it sounds then. That might help give you a clue as to whether you are being rational or participating in bubble mentality.

Two things:

(1) The fundamentals for gold are good, while they're bad for property and many shares.

(2) Participating in a bubble (and being fully aware of it) can be rational. People who have sold their BTL-empire last year are in my eyes ingenious speculators (letting the morale issue apart for now).

And a third, yes, we might see a replay of the 70s. But some people like Jim Sinclair think gold won't crash this time since a pseudo fractional gold standard might evolve.

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I agree with you to a point, but IMO there won't be a correction until the subprime mess is firmly behind us, which given the recession we are verging on could very well be years away. I suppose the comfort blanket that gold bugs have is that we are still not in line with inflation for this commodity, as we get closer I'm sure you will start to see less confidence in the market.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

Yes, I agree that the conditions are good for the gold price to keep on increasing - it's still a long way short of the 1980 peak, for a start.

 

I'm not so sure about less confidence in the market. I suppose the question is whether a bull run makes people believe all the more fervently in gold, or whether they can take a step back and see a bubble forming when too many people jump in.

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(2) Participating in a bubble (and being fully aware of it) can be rational. People who have sold their BTL-empire last year are in my eyes ingenious speculators (letting the morale issue apart for now).

 

That's an excellent point. Recently I responded to a contrarian who suggested that the smart thing to do was always to run against the herd (and wasn't your text on HPC about your grandfather running from the train?)

 

Actually I'd suggest the most profitable thing to do in a bubble situation is to run with the herd to start with, but then run away from them just before they run over the cliff, if you are able to. It can be rational to observe irrational behaviour and conclude that one's best interests are served by acting the same way.

 

And a third, yes, we might see a replay of the 70s. But some people like Jim Sinclair think gold won't crash this time since a pseudo fractional gold standard might evolve.

 

Yes, that would be a possible reason why this might not turn into 1980 part 2. I'm not convinced though, I just don't see the world financial system going back there unless it almost totally collapses. This is a bad financial mess, but I'm yet to be convinced that's the endpoint.

 

Could be a good reason to keep at least some wealth in gold even when one thinks the top is near though.

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Here's my gold sceptic thought of the day, feel free to skip it if you only like hearing pro-gold views:

 

One thing that worries me about the attitudes of current goldbugs is that they are developing a bubble mentality, together with some seriously defensive psychological tactics. So any drop in price is a temporary drop, probably as a result of cartel conspiracy. Anyone who says anything bad about gold must be jealous or scared, or a gold-hater. And so on.

 

My opinion is that the gold run has further to go, possibly a lot further, and I'm pleased for anyone who does well out of it. But history tells us that gold also has the potential to eventually peak and crash, and with all these defensive attitudes being reinforced by a long gold bull run, I worry that people will be left without the critical tools for perceiving a bubble forming.

 

I'd also note that almost all the things people are saying now about gold were being said in the late 1970s. Fiat was about to crash, gold was real money, the only safe store of wealth, etc etc. And then it peaked and crashed and a lot of people lost out big time.

 

My suggestion would be that whatever you say about gold, try using the same language about shares or property and seeing how plausible it sounds then. That might help give you a clue as to whether you are being rational or participating in bubble mentality.

 

I personally welcome your opinion as other gold bugs should, i also think that anyone that is here is well informed,and hopefully when the correction comes we will know about it,through lots of other against the grain sources.

But gold is different this time lots more people in India, China , have more of a historic interest in trusting gold and not gobberment propaganda outlets, it seems that it will be a large drop but not like the one that happen in the 80s, and will continue to be a valuable commoditie, just like food and energy.

To be a gold bug one gets attacked from all sides, and use history in the 80s as a big stick to beat bugs with,as Warren Buffet said "when the tide goes out you will see who is swimming naked".

Protect yourself Magpie :(

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I personally welcome your opinion as other gold bugs should, i also think that anyone that is here is well informed,and hopefully when the correction comes we will know about it,through lots of other against the grain sources.

But gold is different this time lots more people in India, China , have more of a historic interest in trusting gold and not gobberment propaganda outlets, it seems that it will be a large drop but not like the one that happen in the 80s, and will continue to be a valuable commoditie, just like food and energy.

To be a gold bug one gets attacked from all sides, and use history in the 80s as a big stick to beat bugs with,as Warren Buffet said "when the tide goes out you will see who is swimming naked".

Protect yourself Magpie :(

 

I suppose another possibiliity is that the 1980 peak was a very specific reaction to the ending of the gold convertibility and the subsequent legalisation of private ownership. This time, the first part of the bull run at least has been merely a correction after gold spent a long time lagging behind inflation.

 

It'll all be interesting to watch. I'm not wealthy, so for me it's more of an academic interest - what money I have is wrapped up in my property which I won't be selling even though I do expect its value to decline somewhat.

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I suppose another possibiliity is that the 1980 peak was a very specific reaction to the ending of the gold convertibility and the subsequent legalisation of private ownership. This time, the first part of the bull run at least has been merely a correction after gold spent a long time lagging behind inflation.

 

It'll all be interesting to watch. I'm not wealthy, so for me it's more of an academic interest - what money I have is wrapped up in my property which I won't be selling even though I do expect its value to decline somewhat.

 

I str about a year ago to get the ex wife paid her bit, i am glad i did, got her out for 9k she was desperate for money to pay of credit card debts, :lol: i pocketed the rest and got to keep the kiddies as well :lol:

I put most of it into gold and silver,and am riding the bull, i will also when the markets settle i will get into shares like energy and wheat sugar other copper etc..etc

The next few years will be most interesting and i am going to start selling gold when it reaches about $2000 in chunks but i will also keep about a third of it and let it just sit,and who knows it could be a nice pension that third in 20 years, or pass it on to my kiddies.

I'm property poor, but real money rich. :(

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Here she goes....oil levels lowered in the USA. BLAST OFF!!!!

 

gold at $980 and rising to pre-cartel smack down level :(:lol:

I take it Mr P that USofA has suddenly discovered that the gasoline tank is in the red, and the nearest gas station is in the middle east. Peak oil anyone. :lol:

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