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A Difference of Opinion:

Natixis Sees Gold Averaging $990 In 2016, Pressured By U.S. Interest Rates, Dollar - Kitco News, Oct 9 2015 12:14PM

UBS Sees Gold Averaging $1,250 In 2016; Any Weakness ‘Unlikely To Be Sustained’ - Kitco News, Oct 9 2015 8:54AM

=== ===

. . .

BEAR:

Natixis sees gold prices averaging $990 an ounce in 2016 on expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and strength in the U.S. dollar, the French bank said in a report released Friday.

U.S. interest rates are likely to be the single biggest driver of gold next year, Natixis said.

“The U.S. economy is growing and is expected to continue to do so into 2016-17,” Natixis said. “A strengthening dollar and higher yields could continue to contribute to the lowering of gold prices, especially considering the fact that rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Loose monetary policies in Europe and Japan will help weaken these currencies versus the dollar, which will further strengthen the greenback.”

Gold, like many other commodities, tends to be benefit when the U.S. dollar sags but conversely be hurt by dollar strength.

The firm looks for demand from central banks and China to be weaker than past years.

“On a more supportive note for gold, Indian demand for the metal is expected to rise next year as the economy continues along its growth path,” Natixis said. “Indian demand for gold is positively correlated to higher GDP, spending power and the monsoon.”

For 2017, Natixis said the average gold price could rise back above $1,000 again. “Prices are expected to rise as mine supply starts dropping due to strong cuts in capex over the previous five years,” the firm said.

Natixis looks for silver to follow gold in reaction to the U.S. macroeconomic picture.

. . .

BULL:

UBS looks for gold prices to rebound into next year as real interest rates remain subdued compared to past cycles, maintaining its call for the metal to average $1,250 an ounce in 2016.

The bank downwardly revised its 2015 forecast to $1,170 an ounce from $1,190.

Meanwhile, UBS trimmed its 2016 silver forecast, although the bank still looks for price appreciation next year. The bank also sees higher prices for platinum group metals.

10082015AS_UBS_001.jpg

“We maintain our core constructive view, expecting gold to stabilize and eventually recover up ahead,” UBS said in an outlook issued Friday. “We think that gold has already done a lot to adjust to the current macro environment and anticipate further changes. We expect any downside from here to be ultimately contained.”

Expectations for higher interest rates have previously hurt gold. However, UBS said, there is potential for real rates to be lower compared to previous cycles and market expectations, which would mean a friendlier environment for gold than what currently appears to be priced into the market.

“Against the backdrop of broader macro uncertainty, light positioning suggests that there may be an opportunity for longer-term investors to rebuild positions,” UBS said.

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Another Bullish E-Wave count for Gold ... Larger Image

Goldewave101315-2_zpsgleltsvw.png

 

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/10/13/tuesday-update-511/#comments

 

Also : ST E-wave count, suggesting the current rally may go to $1220+

If right, that we may see a leap above Key Resistance at $1175 very soon

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GOLD is charging forward : Up $15 !

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

Gold Gains as Markets Await Fed Cues
Wall Street Journal-2 hours ago
LONDON—Gold prices were higher on the London spot market Wednesday, ahead of a statement from the Federal Reserve that will likely ...
GLD / Gold ... 5-years : 2-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d
GLD_zpsxyrrprdm.gif

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What a vicious beat down in the last 6 sessions, all because the market is stupid enough to actually think the Fed will follow through with their lip service.

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Actually reasonably impressed with gold "only" down 1.5% following such a strong job report.

Better to get it out of the way - only then can the bottom be "in".

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-14/about-38-all-comex-gold-hong-kong-left-warehouses-yesterday

 

About 38% Of All The COMEX Gold In Hong Kong Left The Warehouses Yesterday

 

Hong Kong is typically seeing large inflows and outflows of gold. Because that is how the precious metals market has been manifesting in Asia since about 2007:....with the physical exchange of bullion.

And most of that bullion leaves the warehouse and does not come right back.... It is being accumulated on the mainland, and this probably does not include the PBOC official purchases.

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Important to note that neither GDX or Silver confirmed the recent new low in gold, and now we have a bounce today, things are looking much stronger.

Could be a big short squeeze coming.

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Gold has held up better than Oil for the last several months

 

GLD / Gold ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs

GLD-wk_zpshpne7rwj.gif

 

GLD vs. OilB (etf for Brent Oil) ... all-data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs

Gld-vsOilB_zpshr3moacp.gif

 

Gold-to-Brent ratio has run up to a resistance level (near 27:1);

Gold-toBrent_zpstxugzje9.png

 

It may make sense to consider shifting from Gold to Oil (or oil shares?)

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Gold stocks - Does this chart look familiar ?

 

HUI / Gold Bugs index ... all-data : 5-years : 2yrs-D : 6mos-D / GDX: 6mos-D : 10-d

HUI-all_zpscukmsrhl.gif

 

Look below

 

Another writer predicting a Gold bottom

 

Amazing Opportunity In The Gold Sector
/ December 10, 2015 13:21

Despite widespread pessimism, apathy, and derision towards the sector, gold and gold stocks present an extremely rare opportunity. Gold stocks are on track to record 5 years of losses starting in 2011 with the $HUI gold bugs index plunging 84% percent from 2011 to 2015. Gold is on pace to put in a 3+ year bear market with 3 years of losses. But the utter destruction in this sector is what has created an awesome opportunity. The only question is the timing of when this can be capitalized on.

Stage 4 bear markets are what create massive opportunities for upside gains and new Stage 2 bull markets. A bear market causes investors to panic out of a sector. Selling begets more selling until finally the sector bottoms out as sellers become exhausted. After a bear market a Stage 1 base forms which is a period of disinterest in a sector as investors favor other sectors. The sector may remain “cheap” and drift sideways for a long period of time, from months to even years.

12102015JSFH_001.jpg

When enough investors come back into a sector to force a breakout of the Stage 1 base a new bull market is born. This is the most exciting and profitable time to enter into a position in a sector.

. . .

Gold stocks have had many false Stage 2 breakout attempts during their bear market. Most notable were 2 attempts during 2014 where gold stocks traded for multiple weeks above the 30-week moving average before falling back below it. Gold stocks have made 6 attempts since 2012 to move back above the 30-week moving average and each attempt has failed and produced another leg lower in the bear market.

1210201J5FH_003.png

One way to filter out false breakout attempts is to wait for a re-test of the moving average in order to confirm that the breakout higher is real. Waiting for this signal alone would have kept a trader out of the gold market and away from the damage of a Stage 4 bear market for the last few years.

After 5 years of a bear market and 6 failed breakout attempts, gold stocks are perhaps the most loathed they've ever been. But the reality is that a cyclical sector such as gold will never remain out of favor perpetually.

 

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-12-10/Amazing-Opportunity-In-The-Gold-Sector.html

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Thought this was not a bad post by one of the mods on Project Avalon, a bit diiferent

 

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?87608-Q-What-s-up-with-gold-A-They-want-it-all.

 

Q: What's up with gold? A: They want it all.
Over the last decade I have become increasingly uncomfortable with the relentless hype in part of the alternative financial media pushing gold. The usual story is that the Fed is "printing" trillions of Dollars, putting us well along the way into hyperinflation, and that gold (and silver) will be one of the few ways to preserve wealth across the coming monetary collapse.

Also we're told that some of the banks, such as JP Morgan, have been selling gold and silver "short" (selling options on the COMEX to provide metals in the future, at a lower price) without having the metal to provide if the option buyer wants actual deliver ... a so called "naked short", promising future delivery of what you don't have, in order to drive the price down from the fake supply.

Also, we're told that China and Russia in particular have been accumulating gold and silver, emptying the vaults in New York, London and Zurich. The claimed 8000 tons of gold in the US Fort Knox was supposedly already stolen during the administration of Bill Clinton, in the 1990's.

We 're told to hang in there through the last few years of declining prices, since the peak in 2011, because once the US Dollar fails, gold (now at $1066/ounce) could go to $5000 or $10,000 or higher, and silver (now at $14/ounce) could go to $100, $200 or higher.

Some of the above is, as best as I can tell, true. The gold and silver is going "East", to China and Russia, emptying the vaults in the US and Western Europe. The US steals any gold it can from each of the (too many) nations it has invaded, starting with picking up massive amounts of gold from the Orient and Europe after the Second World War. That stolen gold is going "East."

We are also told that China and Russia can be expected to bring on a new world monetary system, based on gold backed currency and gold settlement of trade imbalances between nations.

===

I believe now that there is a deep deception in the above, that I've not seen mentioned anywhere.

I believe that (1) China and Russia are essentially, in the long run, on missions consistent with the ambitions of a few uber-wealthy families, such as the Rothschilds, to control humanity, and that (2) part of this mission involves removing precious metals as an actual, commonly used, form of money from the hands of both individuals and nations, in favor of debt-money (money lent into existence in exchange to entering into a contract with the Banksters to repay with interest, or forfeit property and income streams.)

The Chinese, especially, are soaking up whatever gold they can. The gold hype in the US (and other Western nations?) has individual people buying gold who are looking for a safe way to preserve wealth across the coming monetary collapse, and perhaps make a big profit. When the bastards in power hold 99+% of all above ground or easily mined gold, the gold market cannot be fair and open. The bastards can always drive price up or down with marginal sales, and other more devious means.

The Gold Bugs and Silver Stackers (individuals building a private stash of a few ounces or kilos of gold or silver) are being enticed to pick up pennies in front of an oncoming steam roller. At some point, the hype will have them all rushing to take their profit and unload their stash for money that they can actually spend in the market for food, clothing and shelter.

When that happens, almost no "free" gold or silver will be left in circulation ... world-wide ... almost none. It will all be held by institutions and families aligned with the "bastards" (Zionists, Jesuits, Rothschilds, etc).

One more objective of the bastards will be achieved. There will no longer be any practical basis for a precious metal based monetary system in which individuals, businesses and governments individually hold and control their savings.

All that will be left will be debt-money, on the steroids of advanced computer and networking allowing for deep, vast, fast and world-wide centralized control.

In short: gold and silver is not the "answer", unless humanity also gains the awareness and power to control its own monetary assets, which it has for the most part lacked for a long, long time.

===

Yes, the above is a bit long ... it's the first time I've written it clearly, and I don't know yet how to write it succinctly.

The above is also quite different than anything I've read elsewhere. Please keep an open mind when reading it. Thanks.

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Thought this was not a bad post by one of the mods on Project Avalon, a bit diiferent

 

An interesting idea that certainly sounds plausable. I do however wonder:

  • if evidence of such organised activity really exists? The Zionists, Jesuits and Rothchilds are easy tags to put on such a nefarious schemes. But trying to work out if they really exist in such an organised fashion is neigh-on impossible;
  • Aren't the Chinese encouraging their population to hold the gold independently of the state by introducing vending machines selling bars? That would seem to be in conflict of a Rothchild controlled state trying to corner the PM markets.Why encourage the population and open their eyes to the importance of gold as a monetary system if you really want to take it away from them. The Indians are also well known for holding PM's due to their understandable distrust of their political elites. I could see such a scheme taking many, many decades to come to fruition;
  • A large part of the world is already in the thrall of debt-based money and I expect that relitivly few people would understand the nature of PM's as a monetary asset. Are the numbers of people that do understand not so small as to not be worth the Rothchild's time? It seems to me they have already won the battle in the western world!
  • If they are successful in cornering the market, won't people just switch to another substitute such as platinum, copper or BitCoin? How much can the elites gain from removing G+S from the radar?

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Klogger, I generally agree.

 

The Elites don't control everything without being good at what they do, but. quite evil. Second guessing these guys is tricky because they understand and manipulate the masses just like the pied piper. So all the hype about Gold and Silver could be psy-ops, although 'their' plans span over many years so are difficult to time.

 

Its seven years since the last time significant wealth was transferred from poor to the rich so technically we're about ready for another major transfer. Lots of stuff going on in the world so who knows what the trigger event might be and when. Trade what we can see with our own eyes as they say

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Looking stronger today.

In hindsight, last week's interest rate decision looks to have put in a "lower high" in DXY. If so, the chances are good that gold has just put in a very long term double-bottom.

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Looking stronger today.

In hindsight, last week's interest rate decision looks to have put in a "lower high" in DXY. If so, the chances are good that gold has just put in a very long term double-bottom.

 

Exactly - a weaker USD should be good for Gold

An we have often had a decent tradable Low in Gold in Dec.

 

DXY / US Dollar ... 10-days

 

DXY-10d_zpsqrsgdhut.gif

 

Is drifting lower again

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Gold may be awaiting a move up in the Euro

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif

 

EUR (in US$) ... update : US$ 1.092 = Eur 0.916

/ A move thru $1.10 / Eur 0.909 should be bullish for Gold

EUR_zpsiibnlhmm.gif

 

EUR versus GLD ... update

EUR-vsGLD_zpstm1z9dez.gif

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Russia Gold “Buying Spree” Continues – Buy 22 Tons In November

 

– Russia adds another 700,000 ounces (22 tonnes) to gold reserves in November
- Russian ally Kazakhstan increased gold reserves for 38th month to 7 million ounces
- Russia has added 197.1 tonnes in 2015 – Compared with 172 tonnes in all 2014
- November gold buying is Russia’s ninth straight month of increase
- Russia now has sixth largest gold reserves in the world
- Central bank buys all Russian gold production
- Other Russian gold demand imported
- Russia views gold bullion as “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”

 

RussiaReservesst20151219.gif?25e860

Russia continues to add to its gold reserves and added another 700,000 ounces in November or another 22 metric tonnes, and analysts believe this buying will continue and may intensify in the coming months.

Russian ally Kazakhstan increased its gold reserves for a 38th month to 7.03 million ounces in November from 6.96 million ounces a month earlier.

The latest large increase in Russia’s gold reserves – a “buying spree” as reported on Reuters Africa has again gone largely unnoticed by most analysts. Indeed, the important monetary and geopolitical ramifications continue to be largely ignored in western media.


Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/#SJO6K2wOvdlo5DLs.99

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