Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Thanks for the reply. I've just realised I wrote something interesting above - "especially considering everything was falling apart?", perhaps that's it, it "was" falling apart and now it isn't, gold is certainly a hedge against uncertainty. I'm not sure what's changed in terms of the Euro's stability, but there's very little reported anymore and I don't recall anything being fixed... Do you see the declining velocity of money as a symptom or the cause?

 

Martin Armstrong has stated all markets are gamed in the short term, but you can't influence the long term trend. The longer this continues, the more I've come around to his point of view.

 

 

 

 

I think the MV plunge is the cause of the gold price drop. The perception of inflation is low because of it.

I think also the Fed and the USGOV are responsible for that drop. I think it happens when people and corporations' appetite for loans diminish, they hoard cash, see little value in bonds or equities and are unsure about the future. Also, corporations may hoard cash overseas (e.g. apple inc.) for tax reasons.

 

I think personally, usually gold does do well in deflations, but you have to admit that if there is a significant inflation in cost-push terms (prices) from here, like in the 70's?? then there will be no mining activity at all unless the gold price rises!

We could be in for a 70's-style ride. Bubb's charts seem to show it is possible. Dr B., I liked the a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h-i-j-k analysis! Very interesting.

Goldfinger always said these moves were often self-similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Inflation is currently "stored" in currencies, bonds and equities markets. At some point when these bubbles pop it will leak out and find its way into commodities and general consumer prices, and at that point the SHTF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I accept the velocity of money is very low, but bubbles are still appearing in other asset classes. Look at equities, London property, yachts, fine wines or art, fine art has doubled in 6 months. So there is a lot of money sloshing around, it's just the love affair with gold ended. It seems nonsensical to me, everyone has such a short term mentality... I don't understand the mindset that would have someone sell their gold and buy fine art. Collectibles are notoriously bad at retaining value in a financial crisis.

 

I think the MV plunge is the cause of the gold price drop. The perception of inflation is low because of it.

I think also the Fed and the USGOV are responsible for that drop. I think it happens when people and corporations' appetite for loans diminish, they hoard cash, see little value in bonds or equities and are unsure about the future. Also, corporations may hoard cash overseas (e.g. apple inc.) for tax reasons.

 

I think personally, usually gold does do well in deflations, but you have to admit that if there is a significant inflation in cost-push terms (prices) from here, like in the 70's?? then there will be no mining activity at all unless the gold price rises!

We could be in for a 70's-style ride. Bubb's charts seem to show it is possible. Dr B., I liked the a-b-c-d-e-f-g-h-i-j-k analysis! Very interesting.

Goldfinger always said these moves were often self-similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes when potential inflation becomes kinetic inflation, the financial landscape will look very different.

 

Inflation is currently "stored" in currencies, bonds and equities markets. At some point when these bubbles pop it will leak out and find its way into commodities and general consumer prices, and at that point the SHTF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I accept the velocity of money is very low, but bubbles are still appearing in other asset classes. Look at equities, London property, yachts, fine wines or art, fine art has doubled in 6 months. So there is a lot of money sloshing around, it's just the love affair with gold ended. It seems nonsensical to me, everyone has such a short term mentality... I don't understand the mindset that would have someone sell their gold and buy fine art. Collectibles are notoriously bad at retaining value in a financial crisis.

 

 

The money velocity might be low if the new money goes directly into the equity/bond markets and stays there?

 

As a collector of art and coins myself, I can tell you that the 'bubble' is only at the very top of the market. The lower echelons are still very affordable; as an example I bought a painting last month whch sold in late 1987 at Sotheby's for three times what I paid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Feeling a bit more confident after the last few sessions. The sign of a long term change in direction is if we can move above $1350, and then $1430.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I broadly agree it's "stored" in certain financial and consumer asset classes, but I still can't help but wonder if there's something else we've missed. Martin Armstrong has a 2014 metals report coming out early next year and whilst it isn't cheap, I'm tempted to buy it given he was the only one who nailed this correction AFAIK. It would appear he has an insight in to the gold market.

 

Yes that sounds about right, as the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, high earners are spending their `winnings` on high end items and inflating high end asset prices. Sounds like you got a bargain!

 

 

 

The money velocity might be low if the new money goes directly into the equity/bond markets and stays there?

 

As a collector of art and coins myself, I can tell you that the 'bubble' is only at the very top of the market. The lower echelons are still very affordable; as an example I bought a painting last month whch sold in late 1987 at Sotheby's for three times what I paid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I accept the velocity of money is very low, but bubbles are still appearing in other asset classes. Look at equities, London property, yachts, fine wines or art, fine art has doubled in 6 months. So there is a lot of money sloshing around, it's just the love affair with gold ended. It seems nonsensical to me, everyone has such a short term mentality... I don't understand the mindset that would have someone sell their gold and buy fine art. Collectibles are notoriously bad at retaining value in a financial crisis.

 

 

" it's just the love affair with gold ended..."

 

In the US it has - but not in China.

GLD has been shedding oz.s rapidly (see below) - and the Chinese have been buying them.

When GLD stops selling, and turns buyer, the Gold price is likely to shoot up fast:

 

:Date- : GLD pr : Spot-Mid: Ratio: Tonnes: x32,150, FallinOz: US$value: Shs.OS/ Chg.GLD: Chg.OZ: Chg.Value
2012:
12/31: $162.02 : 1664.0 * : 10.270 : 1,351.0 : 43.44, - 0.00 Mn : $75.08 Bn : 463.4mn / ( changes below, vs. Year-End)
2013:
03/28: $154.47 : 1598.25 : 10.347 : Lon.PM
06/28: $119.11 : 1192.0K*: 10.008 : Lon.PM
07/05: $118.09 : 1223.10 : 10.357 : 0,962.0 : 30.93, - 1.79 mn**$37.49 Bn : 317.5mn / - 27.11% : - 28.80% : - 50.07%
08/02: $126.36 : 1313.40 : 10.394 : 0,918.6 : 29.54, - 1.39 mn : $38.65 Bn : 305.9mn / - 22.01% : - 32.00% : - 48.52%
08/30: $134.90 : 1394.8K* 10.340 : 0,921.0 : 29.61, +0.07 mn : $39.94 Bn : 3== mn / - 16.74% : - 31.84% :
09/27: $127.96 : 1341.0K* 10.479 : 0,906.0 : 29.13, - 0.48 mn : $37.27 Bn : 3== mn / - 21.02% : - 32.94% :
10/31: $127.74 : 1324.0K* 10.365 : 0,872.0 : 27.85, - 1.28 mn : $35.58 Bn : 3== mn / - 21.16% : - 35.89% :
11/29: $120.70 : 1251.80 : 10.371 : 0,843.2 : 27.11, - 0.74 mn : $33.96 Bn : 281.4mn / - 25.50%: - 37.59% : - 54.77%
12/31:
=================
*K : Source is Kitco, London p.m. price

** : Average monthly fall in Gold oz. held by GLD: 43.44 -30.93= 12.51 / 7 = 1.79 mn ounces (thru July'13)

 

=========

Note that in November, GLD shed 0.74 Million Oz., down to 27.11 Million oz, from 43.44 mn. at 12/31/12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst true and if we trust the current price, then supply must still have been greater than demand. Do you know anyone that predicted the current 2 year decline DrBubb?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43504.html

 

In April of 2008, Casey International Speculator published an article called "Gold—Relative Performance to Oil" by Professor Krassimir Petrov, then at the American University in Bulgaria, now a visiting professor at Prince of Songkla University in Thailand. He told us he thought the Mania Phase of the gold market was many years off, which was not a popular thing to say at the time:


"In about 8-10 years from now, we should expect the commodity bull market to reach a mania of historic proportions.

"It is important to emphasize that the above projection is entirely mine. I base it on my own studies of historical episodes of manias, bubbles, and more generally of cyclical analysis. In fact, it contradicts many world-renowned scholars in the field. For example, the highly regarded Frank Veneroso and Robert Prechter widely publicized their beliefs that during 2007 there was a commodity bubble; both of them called the collapse in commodity prices in mid-March of 2008 to be the bursting of the bubble. I strongly disagree with them.

"I also disagree with many highly sophisticated gold investors and with our own Doug Casey that the Mania stage, if there is one, will be in 2-3 years, and possibly even sooner... Although I disagree that we will see a mania in a couple years, I expect healthy returns for gold."

krassimir_structured-finance-lecture1.jp

It turned out that Dr. Petrov was right. Five and a half years later, here's his current take on gold and the metal's ongoing correction…

Louis James: So Krassimir, it's been a long and interesting five years since we last spoke… Gold bugs didn't like your answer then, but so far it seems that you were right. So what's your take on gold today?

Krassimir Petrov: Well, most gold bugs won't like my answer again, because I think we are still between six to ten years away from the peak of the gold bull. We are exactly in the middle of this secular bull market, and a secular bull market is usually punctuated or separated by a major cyclical bear market. I think that the ongoing 24-month correction is that typical big major cyclical correction—a cyclical bear market within the context of the secular bull market.

Thinking in terms of behavioral analysis, most investors are very, very bearish on gold. People who are not gold bugs overall still dismiss gold as a good or even as a legitimate investment. That, too, is typical of a mid-cycle. So as far as I'm concerned, we are somewhere in the middle of the cycle, which may easily go for another 10 years.

I expect that this secular bull market for gold will last a total of 20 to 25 years, dating back to its beginning in 2000. Some people like to date the beginning of this secular bull market at the cyclical bottom in 1999, while others date it at the cyclical bottom in 2001. I prefer to date it at 2000, so that the secular bottom for gold coincides with the secular top of the stock market in 2000.

L: That's interesting. But I'm not sure gold bugs would find this to be bad news. The thing they're afraid to hear is that the market has peaked already—that the $1,900 nominal price peak in 2011 was the top, and that it's downhill for the next two decades. To hear you say that there is a basis in more than one type of analysis for arguing that we're still in the middle of the bull cycle—and that it should go upwards over the next 10 years—that's actually quite welcome.

Petrov: Yes, it's great news. But we're still not going to get to the Mania Phase for at least another two, but more likely four to six years from now.

Now, we should clarify what we mean by the Mania Phase. Last time, it was the 1979 to early 1980 period. It's the last phase of the cycle when the price goes parabolic. Past cycles show that the Mania Phase is typically 10% or 15% of the total cycle. So it's important to pick the proper dates for defining a gold bull market. I prefer to date the previous one from 1966 as the beginning of the market, to January of 1980 as the top of the cycle. That means that the previous bull market lasted 14 years, and it's fair to say that the Mania Phase lasted about 18 months, or just under 15% of the cycle.

So I expect the Mania Phase for the current bull cycle to last about two to three years, and it's many years yet until we reach it.

In terms of market psychology, we still have many people who believe in real estate; we still have many people buying and believing in the safety of bonds; we still have many people who believe in stocks. All of these people still outright dismiss gold as a legitimate investment. So, to get to the Mania Phase, we need all of these people to convert to gold bull market thinking, and that's going to be six to eight years from now. No sooner.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

" it's just the love affair with gold ended..."

 

In the US it has - but not in China.

GLD has been shedding oz.s rapidly (see below) - and the Chinese have been buying them.

When GLD stops selling, and turns buyer, the Gold price is likely to shoot up fast:

 

:Date- : GLD pr : Spot-Mid: Ratio: Tonnes: x32,150, FallinOz: US$value: Shs.OS/ Chg.GLD: Chg.OZ: Chg.Value
2012:
12/31: $162.02 : 1664.0 * : 10.270 : 1,351.0 : 43.44, - 0.00 Mn : $75.08 Bn : 463.4mn / ( changes below, vs. Year-End)
2013:
03/28: $154.47 : 1598.25 : 10.347 : Lon.PM
06/28: $119.11 : 1192.0K*: 10.008 : Lon.PM
07/05: $118.09 : 1223.10 : 10.357 : 0,962.0 : 30.93, - 1.79 mn**$37.49 Bn : 317.5mn / - 27.11% : - 28.80% : - 50.07%
08/02: $126.36 : 1313.40 : 10.394 : 0,918.6 : 29.54, - 1.39 mn : $38.65 Bn : 305.9mn / - 22.01% : - 32.00% : - 48.52%
08/30: $134.90 : 1394.8K* 10.340 : 0,921.0 : 29.61, +0.07 mn : $39.94 Bn : 3== mn / - 16.74% : - 31.84% :
09/27: $127.96 : 1341.0K* 10.479 : 0,906.0 : 29.13, - 0.48 mn : $37.27 Bn : 3== mn / - 21.02% : - 32.94% :
10/31: $127.74 : 1324.0K* 10.365 : 0,872.0 : 27.85, - 1.28 mn : $35.58 Bn : 3== mn / - 21.16% : - 35.89% :
11/29: $120.70 : 1251.80 : 10.371 : 0,843.2 : 27.11, - 0.74 mn : $33.96 Bn : 281.4mn / - 25.50%: - 37.59% : - 54.77%
12/31:
=================
*K : Source is Kitco, London p.m. price

** : Average monthly fall in Gold oz. held by GLD: 43.44 -30.93= 12.51 / 7 = 1.79 mn ounces (thru July'13)

 

=========

Note that in November, GLD shed 0.74 Million Oz., down to 27.11 Million oz, from 43.44 mn. at 12/31/12

 

 

 

Dr Bubb. Something has been bothering me about GLD for a while.

How do you explain this decline relative to the other ETF's (this from November - decline since then puts it at 1353 tonnes -> 835 tonnes; decline >38%.

I personally didn't look into it because I would not trust an ETF (with short interest, Authorised Participants etc.), but it does raise the question of WHY did GLD sell 40% of it's bars? (The Gold price has not dropped 40% YTD; more like 20-25% )

 

GoldETFs.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting... (6-10/2) 8 years for the top of the mania in gold is inline with Martin Armstrong's ECM, but as he said he expects healthy gains in gold up until that point. I was hoping to drop out around 2016 assuming MA's ECM holds true, but this of course all hinges on what's happening...

 

armstrong_model2.jpg

 

So with that article in mind, why did investors decide gold should be considered more of a commodity rather than a monetary asset at the end of 2011? What changed?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting... (6-10/2) 8 years for the top of the mania in gold is inline with Martin Armstrong's ECM, but as he said he expects healthy gains in gold up until that point. I was hoping to drop out around 2016 assuming MA's ECM holds true, but this of course all hinges on what's happening...

 

armstrong_model2.jpg

 

So with that article in mind, why did investors decide gold should be considered more of a commodity rather than a monetary asset at the end of 2011? What changed?

 

 

 

Very interesting....

Flip that Upside Down for Gold:

 

2011.45 to 2013.60 was the Bearish period !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMPACT of Price Momentum and Western Gold Traders

 

 

Dr Bubb. Something has been bothering me about GLD for a while.

How do you explain this decline relative to the other ETF's (this from November - decline since then puts it at 1353 tonnes -> 835 tonnes; decline >38%.

I personally didn't look into it because I would not trust an ETF (with short interest, Authorised Participants etc.), but it does raise the question of :

 

WHY did GLD sell 40% of it's bars? (The Gold price has not dropped 40% YTD; more like 20-25% )

 

GoldETFs.png

 

My explanation may not be satisfactory to you : But is simple enough...

 

Since at least Feb. 2013 being LONG GOLD was the wrong side of the momentum trade.

A big highlight was when GLD broke below the 480 day MA on Feb. 11th, 2013 .

And that break was confirmed in Mar.12th when the 76d-MA broke the 480d-MA... update

 

264k.gif

 

I chroniciled the importance of that 480 day / 100 week MA in an interview with Dominic Frisby on Feb. 7th, 2013:
mjhnew1b.jpg
"Hampton makes the case that the gold price is currently marking a low in its long-term bull run. While there is a chance that the trend channel could be broken to the downside, the odds favour a continuation of the upward trend..."
(I was wrong about the upside being more likely. The downside break proved very important.)

 

(Jump to: xx mins)

I Don't think I was the only one tracking this MA. 100 weeks is a pretty obvious period to watch.

A break of it, gave Goldman the ammunition it needed to spook the market into pushing Gold through the

possible Double Bottom a month later on April 12th, 2013. Momentum traders in Hedge Funds are

influenced more by these trends-in-place than they are by fundamental arguments.

 

Over the last 11 1/2 months, GLD has shed a great deal of Gold :

 

==DATE==: Gold price : GLD-pr.: Ratio : Tonnes: Ounces Held :
08/22/2011 : $1,877.50 : $184.59 : 10.17 :
12/30/2011 : $1,574.50 : $151.99 : 10.36 :
12/31/2012 : $1,664.00 : $162.02 : 10.27 : 1,351.0 : 43.44 Million
12/11/2013 : $1,254.10 : $120.86 : 10.38 : 833.61 :: 26.80 Million
=========
2013 Chg.-- : $0,409.90 : $041.16 : 09.96 : 517.39 :: 16.64 Million /9.33
----- Pct.Chg.: -- 24.63% : -25.40% : ==== : - 55.45 :: 1.78 Million oz.
----- per mo. : -- $43.93 : --- $4.41 : 09.96 :
Keep in mind that annual production of Gold is about 86 Million ounces, or 7.1 million oz./month.
So GLD's shedding of an average of 1.78 per month is about 25% of global production.

 

Through 2013, China has kept buying, enjoying the lower prices. In effect, they have hovered up all the Gold sold by GLD.

(The buying happened mainly through Hong Kong, and so it was tracked.) China also bought virtually the whole of its own production of 403 mt (= 13 million oz.) The combined total of these two buying streams is about 34 Million oz. or 40% of World production.

That shows a strong hunger by China to own gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China has imported over 1,000 tonnes of physical bullion this year, just via Hong Kong. The last monthly figures were 130 tonnes. There is only around 2,100 tonnes of gold produced annually (ex China and Russia which don't export theirs). GLD has shed around 400-450 tonnes from it's peak.

 

This physical demand is huge and at some stage must lead to higher prices imo. Physical is leaving the Comex and most of the ETF selling must be done now. It's early days but we could be making a big double botton and $1200 could well be the floor. We are seeing a huge shift of gold from West to East and this is unlikely to come back onto the market. Does anyone think China will partially back the remnimbi with gold?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warpig, if you take Chris Martensons thesis re oil energy as driver of finance, the oil shale/shale oil/sands/etc...seem to have given a much needed shot in the arm-for a while-to our way of financing the future.

Oil Drum packed in. Detlev packed in. Orlov picked in...all around the time of Barisheffs 10k gold book! Puplava changed tunes. Russell too.

 

But anyway I think it's all about having a bit more room to run thanks to a few drops more of oil.

Nothing else has changed really. In fact except for QE induced fixes, everything is worse. Except we don't realise it yet.

 

Nice to see you btw!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ramp up in gold price to 2011 was QE/inflation expectation related. When it was seen that the printy supply wasn't splashing around but was being contained by the banks and used for profiting/speculation on (so inflating) the stock markets, others money tagged that way. And, like DrB said - momentum... I don't think it was lots of people seeing the 'light' and gold as a monetary asset (with a currency crisis coming) and then dropping that in 2011 to just see it as only a commodity again... This year, banister/corrupt politician meddling to cripple the gold markets in India (and China for some time) has also had it's effect. Maybe next year will see the restrictions dropped in India and cost-push inflation start to show more... See what Japan gets busy with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jake,

 

Good to see you too. Are you still in Japan? I just took a look at gold in JPY, I'm surprised it's come off the boil, I assumed it would still be at all time highs. I assume you sold at the top... :D

 

I really like your theory, although I've always thought shale oil/tar sands was a negative EROI, but perhaps I'm wrong on this. I know it's heavily dependent on low IR's, perhaps there are other influencing factors.

 

Yes that's the irony, nothing's changed, in fact that's not true, everything's magnitudes worse! I can appreciate the world's chasing yield, but I never thought it would have this much of a detrimental effect on gold. Adding further insult to injury, western inventory's going down whilst eastern demand seems to be higher than ever... can that be right? Surely only a lack of demand or a glut in supply can cause a lower equilibrium!

 

Whilst I was hunting around your oil theory earlier I can across this -

The QE Pump Stops
In June 2011, the QE pump which had been keeping commodity and equity markets inflated and correlated stopped, and price levels began to decline. Consumer demand – as opposed to financial demand – for commodities had also been affected not only by high prices, but by reduced demand from developed nations for finished goods. In September 2011, more than $9bn of index fund money pulled out of the markets for the safe haven of T-bills.
What happened as a result was that the regular rolling over of oil leases, and the free dollar funding for producers of their oil inventory ceased. So the leased oil returned to the ownership of the producers, while the dollars returned to the ownership of the funds.
Since the ‘repurchases’ were no longer occurring, the forward oil price fell below the current price, and this ‘backwardation’ was misinterpreted by market traders and speculators. They believed that the backwardation was – as it usually is - a sign that current demand was high and increasing relative to forward demand, whereas in this false market the current demand is unchanged but the forward demand is decreasing.
I thought the timing was interesting, so I wanted to remind myself of the dates of different iterations of QE.

 

QE II ended in June 2011 (Buy $600B of Treasury securities < Q3 2011)

Operation Twist - 21/09/11 - Buy $400B long dated bonds (6-->30YRS) + sell short dated bonds < 3YRS - This strengthened USD
20/06/12 - Added $267B
QE III was announced 13/09/2012 - $40B/month MBS
12/12/2012 - increased to $85B/month MBS

 

If you look at the end date of QEII, the duration of operation twist and the start of QE III against a gold chart, it looks to me like it's caused stark behavioral changes as far as gold investors are concerned. I appreciate it hasn't happened in isolation, there are of course many other influencing factors like oil, the velocity of money, European fragmentation etc... etc... but it's hard to ignore those dates on those charts...

 

Why would QEII encourage people to buy gold and QEIII encourage people to buy equities..?

 

Warpig, if you take Chris Martensons thesis re oil energy as driver of finance, the oil shale/shale oil/sands/etc...seem to have given a much needed shot in the arm-for a while-to our way of financing the future.
Oil Drum packed in. Detlev packed in. Orlov picked in...all around the time of Barisheffs 10k gold book! Puplava changed tunes. Russell too.

But anyway I think it's all about having a bit more room to run thanks to a few drops more of oil.
Nothing else has changed really. In fact except for QE induced fixes, everything is worse. Except we don't realise it yet.

Nice to see you btw!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should have refreshed the page before I replied to Jake. Yes I guess that's mainly it, but why didn't we see it coming? We should have IMO...

 

 

The ramp up in gold price to 2011 was QE/inflation expectation related. When it was seen that the printy supply wasn't splashing around but was being contained by the banks and used for profiting/speculation on (so inflating) the stock markets, others money tagged that way. And, like DrB said - momentum... I don't think it was lots of people seeing the 'light' and gold as a monetary asset (with a currency crisis coming) and then dropping that in 2011 to just see it as only a commodity again... This year, banister/corrupt politician meddling to cripple the gold markets in India (and China for some time) has also had it's effect. Maybe next year will see the restrictions dropped in India and cost-push inflation start to show more... See what Japan gets busy with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Full circle... :D

 

I've just reread it and I think I agree with his closing sentiment:

 

 

 

I believe any sort of SUSTAINED RALLY in the price of gold will not occur until either CONFIDENCE in the ability of the monetary masters is shattered or rattled, or INFLATION EXPECTATIONS begin to arise.

 

QEIII has been slated to end mid 2014, is gold going to trend lower until then?

 

Also, that momentum - HFT, algos sure helped push that along. A manipulation, if you like.

 

Guess I'm paraphrasing Trader Dan and Stewart Thomson, in the main...

 

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/12/qe-is-not-producing-inflation-here-in-us.html

 

Get the regular bit from ST here: http://www.321gold.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×