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Option expiry (i.e. an option on a future) : 25th Nov.

Surely the spankers won't let that pass without worthless expiry at stikes of 1250 or greater.

 

After that, we have an interesting situation at Comex.

Dec13 Futures "First Day Notice" is 27th Nov.

 

At tle last check, the Open Interest on the Dec13 Future was about 133,000 contracts. That's 13,300,000 ounces.

Currently deliverable gold at the CME stands at around 590,000 ounces.

Historically, December deliveries can be between 3%(2012) and 11% (2011) of the OI.

4.4% would wipe them out as it stands now.

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2013226.pdf

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20GOLD&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=GOLD

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Option expiry (i.e. an option on a future) : 25th Nov.

Surely the spankers won't let that pass without worthless expiry at stikes of 1250 or greater.

 

After that, we have an interesting situation at Comex.

Dec13 Futures "First Day Notice" is 27th Nov.

 

At tle last check, the Open Interest on the Dec13 Future was about 133,000 contracts. That's 13,300,000 ounces.

Currently deliverable gold at the CME stands at around 590,000 ounces.

Historically, December deliveries can be between 3%(2012) and 11% (2011) of the OI.

4.4% would wipe them out as it stands now.

http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2013226.pdf

http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20GOLD&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=GOLD

 

In the shorter term at least you guys have lost the kind of argument that the ordinary person is going to understand - ie prices to the moon so protect yourself with gold now - so it is only natural that Gold should not be a sought after commodity when stock piles are already hugely in excess of annual use.

 

Further out, we would need to see greater intolerance to being poor, by people who are able to influence the status quo, than is being shown at the moment, to enable the kind of dollar devaluation by spending that will result in prices to the moon.

 

In the current environment and for the forseeable future, prices to the moon in fact remains only some kind of a central bankers dream, where their ability to lower prices is ginormous and their ability to create price rises using the current methodology has being fairly pitiful.

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Volume is lighter on this drop - thank goodness

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http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/gold-bullion-etf-and-fund-drains-from.html

 

Gold Bullion ETF and Fund Drains From the Beginning of 2013 - Comex Registered at 69 to 1

deliver3.jpg
"We must always tell what we see. Above all, and this is more difficult, we must always
see
what we see."


Charles Péguy


The first chart below shows the amount of gold that has been taken out of the vaults of various funds and ETFs since the beginning of this year.

The number in black is the total number of tonnes that have been removed from their vaults, presumably to be sold off into the market, most likely heading for points East based on the import export data which we have seen.

The number in red is the percent decline in the fund or ETF total inventory this year.

The more I look into this, the more I see the fingerprints of a few Western bullion banks, with their activities centered in New York and London, with some minor involvement from the Swiss.

Physical supplies are a bit thin. That seems to be clear from various analyses of flows of gold from West to East. Even with the steep price declines in silver, there is absolutely nothing comparable to this happening with the silver ETFs and Funds.

I read a bank analyst opinion today that the declines in gold bullion inventory show 'investor disenchantment' with gold bullion. That might be more credible if the supplies of bullion held in these funds were not primarily determined by bullion banks, who are also playing the markets for their own books.

I am fascinated at the apparent repeal of the law of supply and demand.

The lack of reform in the financial system is strangling the real economy, and perverting the minds and hearts of weaker willed men and women who destroy their own selves in the service of 'easy money.'

One wonders where the gold will be obtained when this trend reverses. Venezuela seems to be willing to swap its sovereign wealth into the market. Germany and a few other countries are already there.

Weighed and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

GoldETFs.png

As always, this data is supplied by master data wrangler Nick Laird at Sharelynx.com.

This comes from a much larger chart of almost every major gold bullion publicly disclosed vault. I carve out those with major holdings and present them individually on the chart above. The master chart provides the 'big picture' and includes vaults with little activity, such as the Central Fund and the Sprott Fund.

etfstackedtotalau02.php.png

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GLD/ Gold closed Friday at $120.70 ($1,252.10)

 

 

A low volume bottom may be in place

 

Gold is up $9, and back up over $1250 ... GLD : GLD-8dma

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

97si.png

 

I had thought the odds of a restest of the $1186 low were 80%.

But I would now shift that down to 60-65%

 

A close over GLD-$122 on good volume, and I will take those odds back to 50-50

 

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:Date- : GLD pr : Spot-Mid: Ratio : Tonnes : x 32,150 : US$-Value : Shs.OS / Chg.GLD : Chg.OZ : Chg.Value
2012:
12/31 : $162.02 : 1664.0 * : 10.270 : 1,351.0 : 43.44 Mn : $75.08 Bn : 463.4mn / ( changes below, vs. Year-End)
2013:
03/28 : $154.47 : 1598.25 : 10.347 : Lon.PM
06/28 : $119.11 : 1192.0K*: 10.008 : Lon.PM
07/05 : $118.09 : 1223.10 : 10.357 : 0,962.0 : 30.93 mn : $37.49 Bn : 317.5mn / - 27.11% : - 28.80% : - 50.07%
08/02 : $126.36 : 1313.40 : 10.394 : 0,918.6 : 29.54 mn : $38.65 Bn : 305.9mn / - 22.01% : - 32.00% : - 48.52%
08/30 : $134.90 : 1000.0K*: 10.000 : 0,921.0 : 29.61 mn :
09/27 : $127.96 : 1000.0K : 10.000 : 0,906.0 : 29.13 mn :
10/31 : $127.74 : 1000.0K : 10.000 : 0,872.0 : 27.85 mn :
11/29 : $120.70 : 1251.80 : 10.371 : 0,843.2 : 27.11 mn : $33.96 Bn : 281.4mn / - 25.50%: - 37.59% : - 54.77%
=================
*K : Source is Kitco, London p.m. price

 

GLD has shed 16.33 million ounces since year end.

That is a monthly rate of about 1.5 million oz. and is annualised at 17.8 million oz.

 

That's about 20.5% of estimated annual Gold production of 87 Million ounces.

 

Gold-Production-2013.jpg

======

* World : 2.700 tonnes : x 31.25k = 87 Million oz.
: China : 0,370 tonnes ; x 31.25k = 11.6 Mn. oz.
======

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indeed, I listened to financial sense for the first time in a while this weekend. I'm sure they called the bottom June. Now seemed to be saying gold is finished and the inflationists don't understand the modern financial system. I guess I missed the episode where they said they were wrong. I wonder what sort of calls they are getting currently?

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^Wow.... I left FSN at about 2011. I felt FSN was too focused on gold and got too much into detail into Mises etc, which is important, but what drives prices are the public moving in herds. The truth is important, but sometimes people don't crowd around the truth, sometimes they choose to prefer to crowd around lies as it is easier and more palatable. The media is so vital to the life of the current system right now. If you told people that money is printed out of thin air, they won't believe you, and carry on as they are, because the media doesn't say it. We maybe heading toward slavery and economic repression, but look around - are the majority of the slaves complaining? They still shop, they still subscribe to cable TV, they vote Obama. Emigration is invited so there will be never a short supply of cheap workers to create competition amongst the bottom feeders. We have not hit a low enough level to invite real change.

 

FSN got it right from 2003 to 2010, but didn't get out when the technicals said so. They had trend follower, Stan Weinstein on the show, and he said it was time to look at getting out.

 

Perhaps it is the bottom for gold. But not until bitcoin's run has finished and gold's techincals say it is time to buy.

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$1214.

London sellers still dumping this stuff like its going out of fashion. No sign of an intermediate bottom yet.

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$1214.

London sellers still dumping this stuff like its going out of fashion. No sign of an intermediate bottom yet.

 

Yeah - the retest looks very, very likely now.

These charts may fit here

 

 

Oil Shoots UP ! Dollar down, Gold a tad higher

 

Dec. -SPY- : Chg : volume : -GLD- : Chg: volume : x10.36 : WTI.Cr: --DXY-- --Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
dec
02 : 180.53 - 0.47 : 81.2M: 117.58 - 3.12: 10.1M: 1,218.1 : $93.95* 80.906 +0.261 : 103.33 - 0.81 : 10 : 010 / 100 : 0,100
03 : 179.75 - 0.78 : 104.M: 117.96 +0.38: 6.95M: 1,222.1 : $96.91* 80.592 - 0.318 : 103.71 +0.38 : 04 : 014 / 090 : 0,190
WTI Crude was up $2.96 : +3.15%
The tiny rise in Gold is disappointing
I have raised my odds of a retest of Gold's $1,186 Low to 80-90%
It would be higher than that (98%?) except that there is still (at least) one more higher support line worth watching:
z6g.gif
... and THIS too:
u5d.gif
Probably many potential buyers are awaiting a Retest before buying, so we may need to see that
There is strong support down below GLD-$110

 

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ns.gif

 

A "throw-over" at the Top... and a "throw-under"? (haha)

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So what did the gold [bugs|bulls] overlook? I have to say I didn't expect a 2 year decline in gold and silver and even now it's hard to appreciate why this happened. Martin Armstrong predicted a 19 month decline, but I'm still at a loss as to why. Now I appreciate everyone's chasing yield, but what was wrong with chasing capital gains, especially considering everything was falling apart? What caused the fundamental switch? Does anyone have any credible ideas? It's not as if anything appears to have changed, but clearly something underneath the surface has... Anyway, a couple of charts to ponder, both of which hint gold is just about to complete a huge double bottom IMO, although MA believes there's still a small amount further to fall from here, $900 being the absolute possible bottom IIRC.

 

7gold-19month-correction-2012-2013.jpg

 

KWN%20Russell%209%3A30%3A13.jpg

 

KWN%20Rosen%20I%2012.4.2013.jpg

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So what did the gold [bugs|bulls] overlook? I have to say I didn't expect a 2 year decline in gold and silver and even now it's hard to appreciate why this happened. Martin Armstrong predicted a 19 month decline, but I'm still at a loss as to why. Now I appreciate everyone's chasing yield, but what was wrong with chasing capital gains, especially considering everything was falling apart? What caused the fundamental switch? Does anyone have any credible ideas? It's not as if anything appears to have changed, but clearly something underneath the surface has... Anyway, a couple of charts to ponder, both of which hint gold is just about to complete a huge double bottom IMO, although MA believes there's still a small amount further to fall from here, $900 being the absolute possible bottom IIRC.

 

 

I think Dan Norcini has hit the nail on the head here:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2013/12/qe-is-not-producing-inflation-here-in-us.html

Money velocity is at multi-decade lows

vof+m.png

 

Something had changed and for whatever the reason ( we can leave that to those who are more sophisticated about such matters ) a general wave of deflationary pressures surfaced in the commodity complex. I maintain that most of the "money" being created by the QE programs has not and continues to NOT make its way into the broader economy. It has gone primarily into the hands of speculative forces which have directed into equities. In other words, while these QE programs have not resulted in the widespread outbreak of inflation that most market participants originally expected them to produce during rounds I and II, one thing I think we can say with absolute certainty, is they have indeed produced a MASSIVE WAVE OF INFLATION in the US EQUITY MARKETS.

 

Such huge sums of "money"/ liquidity cannot be conjured into existence WITHOUT SOME CONSEQUENCES SOMEWHERE. To believe otherwise is to suspend all economic common sense and logic.

 

Let me interject one note here when it comes to general commodity prices. Many who read this site have seen me use ( to the point of disabuse ) the phrase, " the best cure for high prices is high prices". What is meant by this is that high prices encourage those entities engaged in the creation/manufacture/production/growth of the various commodities that are rising in price to INCREASE their production in order to maximize their profits as they take advantage of this increase in the price.

 

This is capitalism at its finest - the market gives the signal and the industry responds to the signal. As the supply then increases due, it eventually overwhelms the demand at that level and price then falls to balance the new increase in supply with the current level of demand.

 

During the run up in commodity prices during QE I and QE II, producers/growers, etc. responded to the higher prices by ramping up the supply. As there is always a lag time between the rise in price and the subsequent increase in supply, we are now seeing that.

 

 

of course, for my money, he discounts the daily weird price smackdowns as normal, which I feel they are not.

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1974-1976 brought a Two year correction in the Gold price

 

2010goldpricelg.gif

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GOLD, A familiar pattern?

 

I think so - just look at it !

 

0gph.gif

 

Of particular similarity is:
+ Waves c-d-e-f : "the box", where d and f are about the same level
+ Wave-f : is the "mid-correction peak" !
+ Wave-g : holds above the c and e lows
+ Wave-h : the "last gasp" rally
+ Wave-i : the slide into: The Low at "i"
+ Wave-j : a small rally
+ Wave-k : Retest Low (higher than i)
========
If this pattern is repeating, Gold is now on/near the Retest Low

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Thanks for the reply. I've just realised I wrote something interesting above - "especially considering everything was falling apart?", perhaps that's it, it "was" falling apart and now it isn't, gold is certainly a hedge against uncertainty. I'm not sure what's changed in terms of the Euro's stability, but there's very little reported anymore and I don't recall anything being fixed... Do you see the declining velocity of money as a symptom or the cause?

 

Martin Armstrong has stated all markets are gamed in the short term, but you can't influence the long term trend. The longer this continues, the more I've come around to his point of view.

 

 

I think Dan Norcini has hit the nail on the head here:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/2013/12/qe-is-not-producing-inflation-here-in-us.html

Money velocity is at multi-decade lows

 

 

of course, for my money, he discounts the daily weird price smackdowns as normal, which I feel they are not.

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This seems to fit in with the charts I've posted above. It feels like there is light at the end of the tunnel now.

 

 

GOLD, A familiar pattern?

 

I think so - just look at it !

 

 

Of particular similarity is:

+ Waves c-d-e-f : "the box", where d and f are about the same level
+ Wave-f : is the "mid-correction peak" !
+ Wave-g : holds above the c and e lows
+ Wave-h : the "last gasp" rally
+ Wave-i : the slide into: The Low at "i"
+ Wave-j : a small rally
+ Wave-k : Retest Low (higher than i)
========
If this pattern is repeating, Gold is now on/near the Retest Low

 

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