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bull market sentiment affected by falling prices shocker

 

and this means that the gold price in 7 days, 14 days and 30 days will be what and what probability do you assign to that prediction?

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Warren Buffett - "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

 

 

 

An email from ATS bullion.

 

This weeks special offer features the 2011 Britannia, we have 50 of these mint condition coins and are offering them £20 below our normal Britannia price! These coins are an excellent way to invest in Gold as they are exempt from both VAT and CGT. These coins are always popular with our customers so be sure to get your order in promptly!

 

 

 

 

 

50x1oz coins, I wonder if they all came from one investor ? 2011 dates, might have been someone who was just "jumping on a bandwagon" I've seen a few of these emails from ATS recently.

 

$1550 is a key number for me, but it's a long way down from here.

 

Tempted to buy :)

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If you want to trade this, you want to kiss the apex on the corner sweetly like an F1 driver, or pull the trigger when you see the whites of the enemies eye. One could buy close to $1500 as you dare, and your stop isn't far away at $1490 so your downside immediately mitigates your loss, and you have a target 2x your risk.

 

I don't do bottom fishing in a trading range, as it isn't my style, but that is how you could play it.

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This video partially explains it in generic terms, what I said above;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkHctbFTUc4

 

hpcjan.PNG

And this is the gold GLD chart - almost an exact case study for the video above. Watch this space - will we be in the $1400 price level or back up into the trading range in 3 months time?

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hpcjan.PNG

And this is the gold GLD chart - almost an exact case study for the video above. Watch this space - will we be in the $1400 price level or back up into the trading range in 3 months time?

 

Yes, I am watching that channel too.

And many indicators suggest that Gold as at minimum, due a good bounce

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Out of interest the same pattern is seen in Cable. BUT it has broken that trading range. Could we see an exchange rate of 1.4? The RSI indicates enough momentum! Great news for Gold bulls in £ terms. I find horizontal trading range support and resistance lines are obeyed, and I can't ever get slanting lines to work.

 

hpcjan.PNG

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A couple of interesting articles from Ambrose Evans Pritchard related to the recent price moves.

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022953/golds-death-cross-is-a-buy-signal-for-china/

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9891082/Trade-protectionism-looms-next-as-central-banks-exhaust-QE.html

 

 

If I understand correctly he is saying that the price falls are due to mutterings from the fed about QE being restricted or being brought to an end.

 

Pritchard makes the point that this will be very difficult to do.

 

The idea that QE will lead to inflation seems to be going mainstream.

 

 

My hope is that the price falls are a market over reaction to weak comments from the Fed about restricting QE and that Gold and Silver's upward trajectory will be resumed.

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One of the few people worth listening to is Andrew Maguire, who was interviewed on www.kingworldnews.com at the weekend;

 

Link to interview page on King World News

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/2/24_Andrew_Maguire.html

 

MP3 : http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/2/24_Andrew_Maguire_files/Andrew%20Maguire%202%3A24%3A2013.mp3

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A couple of interesting articles from Ambrose Evans Pritchard related to the recent price moves.

 

http://blogs.telegra...gnal-for-china/

 

http://www.telegraph...exhaust-QE.html

 

 

If I understand correctly he is saying that the price falls are due to mutterings from the fed about QE being restricted or being brought to an end.

 

Pritchard makes the point that this will be very difficult to do.

 

The idea that QE will lead to inflation seems to be going mainstream.

 

 

My hope is that the price falls are a market over reaction to weak comments from the Fed about restricting QE and that Gold and Silver's upward trajectory will be resumed.

 

Sinclair responded to Pritchard - see thread regarding Sinclair's Jsmineset

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maybe to do with the speech Bernanke is giving today?

 

Must be...

 

 

"Bernanke: QE benefits clear, risks manageable

 

 

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a strong signal Tuesday that he backed the continuation of the central bank’s $85 billion bond-buying program.

 

“In the current economic environment, the benefits of asset purchases […] are clear,” Bernanke said in remarks to the Senate Banking Committee. See MarketWatch’s live blog on Bernanke’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.

 

“The bottom line is that it is QE3 until the job markets improve substantially,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets."

 

 

 

Oh my god, we could be waiting some time.

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If you want to trade this, you want to kiss the apex on the corner sweetly like an F1 driver, or pull the trigger when you see the whites of the enemies eye. One could buy close to $1500 as you dare, and your stop isn't far away at $1490 so your downside immediately mitigates your loss, and you have a target 2x your risk.

 

I don't do bottom fishing in a trading range, as it isn't my style, but that is how you could play it.

 

hpcjan.PNG

Bottom fishing this time got a bite.

tarpon_fishing_001-1a.jpg

 

hpcjan.PNG

See how we took that corner on the RSI. - The extended target would be the moving average if we got lucky - and we did at $1600 (not updated yet on the daily chart). No slanting technical analysis lines required.

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GLD never got to trade in the $1600 area at the open, perhaps that is why we're pretty lucky over here in the UK to trade the hours that we do, and it has significantly backed off that price level, so one had to be in and out real quick.

 

hpcjan.PNG

 

^We've zoomed in here on the daily chart.

 

 

We will probably retest the red line area once more.

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Can you overlay that over the price?

 

Okay - Here you go:

 

gldspecshorts.jpg

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Thank you. It looks to me like a good contra-indicator ... as one might have expected!

LOL.

You aren't implying that I am a contrarian sort of guy, are you?

Well, perhaps I am.

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People in the south of Europe are selling their jewellry. Scrap worldwide has increased from a normal 15% of gold supply to the current 40%. This increase keeps gold prices at bay. I was told that all the thousands of pawnshops buying gold for cash will close down next year, as people's gold jewellry is exhausted.

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... all the thousands of pawnshops buying gold for cash will close down next year, as people's gold jewellry is exhausted.

 

Sweet & tragic at the same time.

 

I just wanted to point out that in terms of the U.S. MZM money supply, gold is momentarily as cheap as in the early to mid nineties. In terms of external debt, it is even cheaper (late nineties / close to Brown Brottom). To sum it up: gold is insanely cheap given the state of the financial world.

 

http://gold.approxim...m_Price_LOG.png

Gold_Price_to_MZM_Equilibrium_Price_LOG.png

http://gold.approxim...m_Price_LOG.png

Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price_LOG.png

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