Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Sometimes it can be useful to remove the fluctuations in the value of the dollar from an underlying, to get a different view of things.

 

Gold divided by the Dollar Index;

4963a3ba.jpg

 

Compare to a standard gold chart;

 

66a916ff.jpg

 

On the standard chart, gold hasn't conclusively broken through the previous low whereas with the dollar stripped out, it has. So gold is supported despite the stronger dollar. $1500 has to be a very important number, psychologically for gold, if that goes there could be a strong wave of selling, along with sharply lower valuations for the mining equities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In any case, where your bullion is concerned you need more of an accumulation and hold attitude. This is not for technical market timing reasons but because, ultimately, at the infinitesimal point in time at which you need your gold, it will be too late already. T-o-o. L-a-t-e. Let's say you make an excellent call to sell then the price is dropping, as it does. You wake up and that's is. Its all over. They've reset the credit clock,

escheduled the currency in some way whatever it is. Well, despite what looked like a great call, youre screwed now because you dont have the purchasing power you thought you did...

A sudden move to gold as you forecast, will not "come from nowhere"

 

And I have never sold down to zero, I have always had SOME gold.

 

The in and out trading has actually served me rather well. I think I have made monay on every physical Gold, and GLD long trade-

 

and the majority of my GLD options trades.

 

I call the Silver high near $50, and the Gold high near $1900,

and bought the end of 2011 dip, and the current dip.

 

Without wanting to sound big-headed, are you aware of anyone who has called it better?

If so, I want to know who, so I can start paying more attention to them

(I am always happy to learn from other's techniques)

 

I would hope that you would now be willing to join me in ridiculing the Robert Ian attitude.

At Silver-$48, he was saying: "Never ever ever Sell your Silver."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mwuahahahaha!

Good to see you in a good mood, GF !

 

Seems like everyone (here on GEI) is now onboard this little rocketship

 

I have never had a Gold (& Silver) position this large before

(fingers crossed, & knock on wood.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A sudden move to gold as you forecast, will not "come from nowhere"

 

And I have never sold down to zero, I have always had SOME gold.

 

The in and out trading has actually served me rather well. I think I have made monay on every physical Gold, and GLD long trade-

 

and the majority of my GLD options trades.

 

I call the Silver high near $50, and the Gold high near $1900,

and bought the end of 2011 dip, and the current dip.

 

Without wanting to sound big-headed, are you aware of anyone who has called it better?

If so, I want to know who, so I can start paying more attention to them

(I am always happy to learn from other's techniques)

 

I would hope that you would now be willing to join me in ridiculing the Robert Ian attitude.

At Silver-$48, he was saying: "Never ever ever Sell your Silver."

Im not knocking your record of market timing. The problem with the instruments you're using is that you may wind up in the wrong place even at the right time. We know how leveraged the markets are, which guarantees some kind of implosion at some point in the precious metals industry. A run on these markets could very easily take down your options dealer. Then your position is non existant. Where you should have made a profit you make a loss from the cost of the options.

 

Youre a smart feller I'm sure you've thought all this through in the long ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...A run on these markets could very easily take down your options dealer. Then your position is non existant. Where you should have made a profit you make a loss from the cost of the options.

 

Youre a smart feller I'm sure you've thought all this through in the long ago.

Who do you think I am trading options with?

 

My counter-party is the exchange clearing house, and my broker is Canadian.

 

There's a decent chance they will be amongst the last standing. Also, as the market move develops, I will be shifting my risk exposures to protect profits.

 

I have already shifted my deposits (partly away) from one of the Top Global banks, to the a strong "local" HK Bank.

I think this move was early, but it costs me nothing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I call the Silver high near $50, and the Gold high near $1900,

and bought the end of 2011 dip, and the current dip.

 

Without wanting to sound big-headed, are you aware of anyone who has called it better?

If so, I want to know who, so I can start paying more attention to them

(I am always happy to learn from other's techniques)

 

You called the tops but not the run ups to those tops... gold from the 1000 level onwards [perhaps this was part of your discipline as a trader, that is, look for the spikes and corrections]. If I remember correctly you were often expecting gold to pull back when instead it slowly kept on rising. Others [not the bugs of course] called the tops also as they were obvious frothy spikes outside the annual rate of appreciation. For myself, wearing my investor's hat, I called a top/ spike in gold when it broke out of the trend. Wearing my trader's hat with silver, I missed the spike... though I hope to make amends for that in my current trading.

 

Interesting to see gold rise recently and the gold/ silver ratio also rise. Still think we could see the ratio above 60, which would be expected if gold at certain times is perveived more as a safe haven.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You called the tops but not the run ups to those tops... gold from the 1000 level onwards [perhaps this was part of your discipline as a trader, that is, look for the spikes and corrections]. If I remember correctly you were often expecting gold to pull back when instead it slowly kept on rising. Others [not the bugs of course] called the tops also as they were obvious frothy spikes outside the annual rate of appreciation. For myself, wearing my investor's hat, I called a top/ spike in gold when it broke out of the trend. Wearing my trader's hat with silver, I missed the spike... though I hope to make amends for that in my current trading.

 

Interesting to see gold rise recently and the gold/ silver ratio also rise. Still think we could see the ratio above 60, which would be expected if gold at certain times is perveived more as a safe haven.

I sold at various stages on the way up, usually mentioning it as I sold along the way. And then sometimes re-entered, usualy at better levels

 

But I have made Strong and Clear calls of some important bottoms, and important Tops

 

Here are three recent examples:

 

+ Gold Bottom

(I will find my old comments later)

 

+ Gold Top

Posted 31 December 2011 - 12:45 PM / GLD closed that day at $xx

RATIO to CRB ...

May be pointing to Buying Window in Precious Metals

5X level looks important for Gold

goldtocrb.png

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15685&st=80

 

(and just a few days earlier on Dec.16th, I posted THE TRUCK I was backing up)

1476_huge-mining-truck.jpg

 

(...together with this comment):

I sold about half of those Gold positions in the rally after that October low, and have boughtback during the last two days.

 

I am using:

+ GLD and HK's version of it

+ Calls on GLD and UGL (2x Gold), Calls on SLV and AGQ (2x Silver) and some calls on KGC.

 

I hit near the lows (so far) with some of the trades, and was a little early on others.

 

Still, I have only invested about half of what I plan to, and so if it breaks support

at GLD-$150< i will still have some powder available.

 

I do think there is maybe a 30-40% chance that $150-support will be broken, which is why I have not posted the truck image (yet)

(I posted it later, as I bought more gold positions)

/see:

 

+ Silver Top near $50 -signalled with a Thread:

 

$50-ish Peak in Silver Coming? Hunting the Top

Also watch the 1.00 Gold Gram level

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14696

 

Was my recent call of the Gold low near $1550 clear enough for you ?

 

Also, when I was running the Beating Buy & Hold thread, I was showing every trade with the prices, so it should have been clear how my frequent trading style works, scaling in and out, using options - but aiming to get hedged, or "get big" at major turns

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who do you think I am trading options with?

 

My counter-party is the exchange clearing house, and my broker is Canadian.

 

There's a decent chance they will be amongst the last standing. Also, as the market move develops, I will be shifting my risk exposures to protect profits.

 

I have already shifted my deposits (partly away) from one of the Top Global banks, to the a strong "local" HK Bank.

I think this move was early, but it costs me nothing

and.... exchange clearing houses always honour their counterparties' obligations when they go poof... like CME group and MFGlobal?... ;)

 

I honestly think that if there are major issues in the banking sector, even your 'safe' banks amongst the last to stand will be wiped out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Without wanting to sound big-headed, are you aware of anyone who has called it better?

If so, I want to know who, so I can start paying more attention to them

(I am always happy to learn from other's techniques)

 

 

You have called for far too many tops to say the above statement with a straight face

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

I have already shifted my deposits (partly away) from one of the Top Global banks, to the a strong "local" HK Bank.

I think this move was early, but it costs me nothing

 

HSBC to Hang Seng?

I think HSBC are amongst the safest out there of the global banks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was my recent call of the Gold low near $1550 clear enough for you ?

Sure, but a recent call. If I'm not mistaken this thread is primarily about the long term of gold... and gold as an investment, and the point I was making was in reference to the longer term calling of gold.

 

Trading gold in the short/ intermediate term [i prefer to do it with the more volatile silver] will of course identify good buying points for both traders and investors.

 

I wonder whether you have been 'converted' recently to the long term trend of 20% annual appreciation. A trend that has been identified here for a good few years now. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pictures of NZ, tales of a Roman Holiday, and apparently the "Goldbugs" have left?

I haven't been following the charts much recently, I just check occasionally.

Am I the only one who thinks those charts are screaming one thing?

 

If this was Star Trek, Scotty would be screaming "the pressure is too great Capt'n, she's gunna blow" lol :)

Hi Steve, good to see you post again. 'Goldbugs' left? On the next spike up there's a good chance a few will be back.... thats' volatility for you.

 

So, what do you think of the long term log chart? Convinced yet about gold appreciating 20% year on year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updates available: http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html'>http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

 

The gold bulls have been right all the way. It's all falling apart: Europe, UK, US, even China. Even Bubb has given in now and is bullish. :) Pretty quiet here nowadays without the bulls. :(

 

Anyway, we had a bounce over the green line! I still think it will mostly hold.

 

DJIA-Gold-Ratio_LOG_GUESS.png

 

As for houses, a bounce here too, but the line is holding.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

UK_House_Prices_in_Gold_LOG_GUESS.png

 

Sinclair model update: http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price.html

 

What can I say? Gold is just dirt cheap!

 

Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price.png

 

Until next time...

Hi goldfinger... good to see you post updates on the ratios. Any update on the hyper-inflation model? B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Steve, good to see you post again. 'Goldbugs' left? On the next spike up there's a good chance a few will be back.... thats' volatility for you.

 

So, what do you think of the long term log chart? Convinced yet about gold appreciating 20% year on year?

 

Hi Romans :)

I see you're in the same time zone :)

 

A few points from me :)

1. I don't see "gold as an investment". To me, "an investment" is something you go into in order to try and "make money".

I see gold, and to some extent silver, as a way to "not invest", ie to avoid all the speculative investments, whether paper "money", stocks, etc.

 

2. The Gold charts seem to be following the general trend since 2001. It's rather boring. One day that trend will be broken, and the paper currencies will drop much faster than they have been.

 

3. I don't see gold appreciating at all. I do see the paper currencies continuing to fall.

 

I haven't created any new charts for rather a long time now lol.

Wow doesn't time fly when you're busy on other things!

 

GoldUS_20101005b.jpg

 

Looks a bit outdated now doesn't it lol :)

 

It looks like I thought the GoldUS$ rate of change was 23% per year:

 

GoldUS_20110406.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit out of date, but my Gold Index, showing how the basket of major currencies have fallen against gold since 2000:

 

SNGCI_v1_20100914_log.gif

 

I look forward to updating this when a catastrophic change occurs (as in catastrophe theory) :)

 

Gold_Catastrophe_Theory_Cusp.gif

 

I still think this is quite likely :)

 

GoldUS_20101002_15kpred.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Romans :)

I see you're in the same time zone :)

 

A few points from me :)

1. I don't see "gold as an investment". To me, "an investment" is something you go into in order to try and "make money".

I see gold, and to some extent silver, as a way to "not invest", ie to avoid all the speculative investments, whether paper "money", stocks, etc.

Sure, strictly speaking, I don't think it's an investment either. I see it as a 'non-sovereign' form of liquidity. Roughly speaking, I call it an 'investment' though...in so far as it is something that can be held over the medium/ long term.

 

2. The Gold charts seem to be following the general trend since 2001. It's rather boring. One day that trend will be broken, and the paper currencies will drop much faster than they have been.

Sure, but I reckon people will get excited when it goes through 2000, just like they did when it went through 1000.

 

3. I don't see gold appreciating at all. I do see the paper currencies continuing to fall.

It's all relative isn't it. If gold is falling/ depreciating against gold, then gold is rising/ appreciatng against 'paper'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's all relative isn't it.

 

It is lol :)

 

But measuring anything against a varying/flexible metric is bound to make things tricky and is liable to be unreliable and give a false picture :)

 

A good metric doesn't have to be gold, it could be a basket of commodities, time averaged to remove short term market variability.

 

I like to watch the price of tins of pineapples lol

 

99c, then $1.39, then $1.49, now back to $1.39, all in the last few years in Countdown :)

 

Likewise cheese, was $5, got to about $12.99, now back at around $9.99.

 

So prices have doubled in the past 6 years?!

Or more accurately, the purchasing power of the NZ$ has halved?!

 

If the doubling time is 6 years, 70/6 gives 12% per year. Seems a little higher than the official CPI increases lol :)

 

If "gold has gone up by 23% per year", that's a purchasing power increase of more like 11% per year.

Not very much during such a turbulent and dangerous economic period.

Methinks there's a lot of catching up to do :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did Bob Chapman die?

 

I was listening to Robby Noel on RBN and he said something that I didn't hear John Stadtmiller say. He said Bob Chapman finally died from his illness.

 

No wonder that he mention the Elysium Fields months ago. He knew that his time was short.

 

Fair well, good friend to all, on your journey to the Elysium Fields.

 

/link: http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1889408/pg1

 

It says he might have had pancreatic cancer.

If indeed he did pass it is sad news, and a tough way to go.

 

RIP, Bob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and.... exchange clearing houses always honour their counterparties' obligations when they go poof... like CME group and MFGlobal?... ;)

I honestly think that if there are major issues in the banking sector, even your 'safe' banks amongst the last to stand will be wiped out.

I think you will find that all the MFG customers will get their money back in the end.

But this long legal process has been unnecessary and confidence-destroying.

 

I am not a superficial guy, like those who plaster all the scare stories all around the web. I try to look at things more deeply. Dealing with a capital-short firm that speculates with its own capital (and also its customers' capital, it turns out), carries a higher degree of risk than trading carefully with more conservative firms, as I am doing.

 

Poor Bob Chapman said he would "never sell his gold and silver", and it now looks like that may have been sadly true. And his gold and silver longs outlived him. I don't want to be that way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit out of date, but my Gold Index, showing how the basket of major currencies have fallen against gold since 2000:

 

SNGCI_v1_20100914_log.gif

Interesting.

Out of curiousity, what is the latest figure?

 

Like you,

I like looking at Precious Metals prices in relation to other metrics.

 

For instance, Silver-in-CRB charts well, and here's an update chart

 

92170121.png

 

This chart is now at a key level. A flag pattern may be complete, and about to shoot higher.

But if it fails here-and-now, then it may retest the downside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If "gold has gone up by 23% per year", that's a purchasing power increase of more like 11% per year.

Not very much during such a turbulent and dangerous economic period.

Methinks there's a lot of catching up to do :)

Yes.... against your real bread and butter stuff. But against over inflated asset prices it's quite another story... potentially. If/ when property prices come off, gold relative to them could appreciate that 23% yearly. And then if commodities continue to be unstable [and the kiwi dollar with it] then the cost of real stuff could even fall by that much. Over say the next six years, in this deflationary* environment, the purchasing power of gold could easily double against everything.

 

*'hyper-deflation' where everything, currency included, deflates/ depreciates relative to gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like I thought the GoldUS$ rate of change was 23% per year:

 

GoldUS_20110406.gif

MUCH MORE than an inflation hedge

 

Gold has been a way to increase real wealth, (after years of depleting it)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×