drbubb Posted March 9, 2012 Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA BTW, if you havent bothered to look, the 144d.MA is just under GLD-$167, and the top level of today's session (so far) is right on/near it. (GLD-$166.56) So by mty own measure, I am batting close to 1,000, if that makes the day's high, and Gold heads down next week. But i am not ruling out a rally into next week. No big positions on at the mo'. I am waiting for the market to tell me what to do. I have a slightly higher expectation of a downwards bias. But no great conviction yet. Do any of you guys trade here ? I don't hear the sort of things I would expect from experienced traders. I know quite a few, and the often will say something similar to what I have posted. But maybe you guys are a different breed. (??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosworth Posted March 9, 2012 Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 BTW, if you havent bothered to look, the 144d.MA is just under GLD-$167, and the top level of today's session (so far) is right on/near it. (GLD-$166.56) So by mty own measure, I am batting close to 1,000, if that makes the day's high, and Gold heads down next week. But i am not ruling out a rally into next week. No big positions on at the mo'. I am waiting for the market to tell me what to do. I have a slightly higher expectation of a downwards bias. But no great conviction yet. Do any of you guys trade here ? I don't hear the sort of things I would expect from experienced traders. I know quite a few, and the often will say something similar to what I have posted. But maybe you guys are a different breed. (??) I don't trade. I have 2 kids under 3 and a third on the way an I work very hard for an investment bank. Spare time is for my family. If I am convinced of a change in Market direction I will offset risk with a spreadbetting based hedge but that us the limit of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyb Posted March 9, 2012 Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 I made a 6 figure profit last May selling silver and gold stocks. But I bought back early and missed the December lows. That was my first big commitment, since I have not much experience in trading. My logical conclusion from following the market since 2005, is that it is best to trade only when there is a clear spike of the price well above the 200DMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 I made a 6 figure profit last May selling silver and gold stocks. But I bought back early and missed the December lows. That was my first big commitment, since I have not much experience in trading. My logical conclusion from following the market since 2005, is that it is best to trade only when there is a clear spike of the price well above the 200DMA. Okay. Here's what I am looking at: update The next drop could be (not: "must be") imminent. A further quick rally to GLD-$168 would not invalidate the Bearish view, and there are Bearish and Bullish scenarios beyond that. As frequent traders will know, the market situation is rarely clear-cut. I don't hold substantial trading positions in Gold now. (I do have some core Longs though.) I slimmed down in the rally beyond $1700, and am awaiting the next Big Buying opportunity, but shall probably take longs in Gold stocks, as well as Gold. If Gold quickly shoots up to $1900 and beyond, will have missed something, unless I find another entry. But I do NOT expect that. Does anyone else here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Okay. Here's what I am looking at: update The next drop could be (not: "must be") imminent. A further quick rally to GLD-$168 would not invalidate the Bearish view, and there are Bearish and Bullish scenarios beyond that. As frequent traders will know, the market situation is rarely clear-cut. I don't hold substantial trading positions in Gold now. (I do have some core Longs though.) I slimmed down in the rally beyond $1700, and am awaiting the next Big Buying opportunity, but shall probably take longs in Gold stocks, as well as Gold. If Gold quickly shoots up to $1900 and beyond, will have missed something, unless I find another entry. But I do NOT expect that. Does anyone else here? Gold has been consolidating well for a good few months after the spike to 1900. If you take the 50 week moving average as a rough base-line then it wouldn't come as too much a surprise to see gold spike through 1900/ 2000 odd with the coming months. The chart you are using looks too short term if you're also thinking about what gold will do in the next few months [ie, will it spike to 1900]. If you're thinking about whre gold will be in the next 3 - 6 months, why not 'stand back a bit' and look at the wider trend? Surely the trend is obvious to the unbiased observer. And just to add, saying there is an obvious trend does not entail a 100% certitude. Rational investors looks for trends and take calculated risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Im sory that he has gone. But its really upto him. The last few weeks he has not been posting as much as normal. I think he needed a break or somthing. I hope that he comes back. I got a lot out of his posts and if he reads this. Im very thankfull to him for them posts. If he wanted his own section here - he could have it. I could call it the Goldfinger thread, or something like that. It could be an OpenBlog, But not always pinned on the Main board. Anyway, as I said elsewhere, the circus seems to have moved on now. And we may be back to where we were before the circus came to town some years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 I look at Gold over various time horizons. For my next possible entry, I like to look within a 6 months window, and maybe 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 I look at Gold over various time horizons. For my next possible entry, I like to look within a 6 months window, and maybe 3 months If you look at the longer term chart, around now looks like a reasonable entry point don't you think? It shows gold well consolidated to its 'base line'. Gold is never an easy buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 I'd rather wait for GLD-$160 or lower - which I think we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 I'd rather wait for GLD-$160 or lower - which I think we will see Yes, likely that gold and silver will come off a bit more here. But think the lows are in with just more consolidation [higher lows] before the upward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yes, likely that gold and silver will come off a bit more here. But think the lows are in with just more consolidation [higher lows] before the upward trend continues. Let's see what happens at GLD-$160, and on a retest of the lows, if it comes. I don't want to prejudge, but would rather let the volume and price movement tell me its own story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 On every consolidation so far as RH's figure clearly shows, the size of the drops gradually diminishes until a new upwards move is established. As RH and myself have already pointed out, the present consolidation since September is already 6 months long, I do not expect a significant drop below 1650$ at this stage, I believe the chances are we will revisit the region 1800-1850 sometime in the next 3 months. That's my guess anyway. It is time to establish a long position. Physical demand has recently been strong at the level 1670$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 ... I do not expect a significant drop below 1650$ at this stage Gold-$1650 = GLD-$160, so I think we are in basic agreement. I am just waiting for the charts to tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Never really commented on gold before, but looks like it might just fall from those charts DONT SHOOT.... DONT SHOOT! I could be wrong!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 No one will shoot you mate, Most of the die hard Gold bugs have now left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 No one will shoot you mate, Most of the die hard Gold bugs have now left. Now that most of the Circus entourage is gone, you can try a daring feat like: walking a tightrope (using options), or sticking your head in the mouth of a lion ( by purchasing a Gld etf.) By you may be doing it in front of a smaller audience. Actually, I wish GF and his entourage success in their ventures. There's no reason for me to wish them ill. But the site may change more in the next 3-6 months, than it did in 3 years. Or we may go back to the chaotic days, when the Gold thread returns from holiday. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Now that most of the Circus entourage is gone, you can try a daring feat like: walking a tightrope (using options), or sticking your head in the mouth of a lion ( by purchasing a Gld etf.) By you may be doing it in front of a smaller audience. Actually, I wish GF and his entourage success in their ventures. There's no reason for me to wish ill to them. But the site may change more in the next 3-6 months, than it did in 3 years. We shall see... I do think Goldfinger,50s qiff and the others are right. They will make money on the deals that they do with gold. Well, I hope so anyway as im buying and holding gold too! And yes you are also right in the way to deal in gold. As you have said in the past, you have a core holding of gold. But you also trade gold too. You take advantage of volatility of gold. And use that to make money. The difference between you and core Gold bugs is that you trade for a living its how you pay your bills and put food on the table. With the core Gold bugs they use Gold and other buy and hold investments as savings. It's their nest egg that they hope will make them money and also other them some safety on what might come. I include myself self in this too. As i have a full time job all my investments are savings. There would be no point in putting all your money into Gold. If you did how would you pay your bills ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Dr B , You are right. The site will change. All sites do over time. Look back to when you first set the site up. The site is now nothing like it was. When i look at the sats when im on at night. There normally 10s of people lurking on the site. We need to find ways to get these members to join in and get more out of the site. Some of them may have great things to offer us. That in-turn will enrich the us and the site. Some may come here because of FB&Bs. Could we change one of the boards have have that as a FB&Bs podcast chat bored were people can take about Doms podcasts and the work he dose ? Its Just an idea. Im not saying it will work. But might be worth a try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halight Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yes, we are now starting the claw our way back up. But I do think we are going to be in for a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 DONT SHOOT.... DONT SHOOT! I could be wrong!!! Is that a typo? Don't you mean DON'T SHORT! DON'T SHORT!? Hate anyone to think that that's my attempt to 'ramp'..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Is that a typo? Don't you mean DON'T SHORT! DON'T SHORT!? Hate anyone to think that that's my attempt to 'ramp'..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted March 11, 2012 Report Share Posted March 11, 2012 Assuming you want to add to your longs [not just day trade], why use a daily chart? Why not the weekly chart? Don't you think that the weekly chart is more predictable if you were looking for 'waves' etc? The trend lines are too easily broken on the daily... way more erratic and unpredictable. Wonder if it's an attention span thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 11, 2012 Report Share Posted March 11, 2012 When i look at the sats when im on at night. There normally 10s of people lurking on the site. We need to find ways to get these members to join in and get more out of the site. And sometimes far more than that. I suppose they do not join, because they have nothing to say, which seems a pity. I do think one change may be far less mud will be slung here. I do not abuse B&H folk, apart from a certain Mr JS Gold. And if the purists are not flinging mud at the traders, we might actually get some more interesting discussions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 11, 2012 Report Share Posted March 11, 2012 Assuming you want to add to your longs [not just day trade], why use a daily chart? Why not the weekly chart? Don't you think that the weekly chart is more predictable if you were looking for 'waves' etc? The trend lines are too easily broken on the daily... way more erratic and unpredictable. Wonder if it's an attention span thing? The way I trade is: First, I form a big picture view. And then zoom in on a Daily or Intraday chart to place the actual Trade. Here's the Weekly view, and I have featured the 76d.MA= 18wk, and 144d.MA= 30wk.MA ... update What do you see here? I am interested in two main things: + Where the 18wk. Crosses the 30wk. MA : to the Downside in Red, and to the upside in Blue. + Where 30wk MA "rolls over" and starts moving lower. The first indicator has given three SELL signals, and we are on the Third one now. We are close to a BLUE "BUY" signal, but it has not yet been flashed. For that to happen, the GLD price needs to climb back over the 30wk=144d MA, and the 18wk=76d MA does too. GLD-Weekly-Closeup-chart Let's see if that will happen soon. The 30wk.ma is now close to rolling over, which might signal a deeper correction. Methinks we have a critical week or two ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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