Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Nick Barisheff's book, 'Gold 10,000' is out soon. And he had a couple of podcasts on FS with Jim Puplava.

 

I think a lot of reasonably minded people think official CPI is a load of....

That sort of talk can be worrisome. It reminds me of DOW 36,000 etc. from 2000, or oil $300 from 2008.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't believe gold will necessarily return to the SGS inflation adjusted high, but by now you surely realize the difference (and the general superiority and more accuracy) with the SGS inflation numbers. SGS reverts to an older inflation formula that was more reflective of everyday prices for key products.

I tend to agree that it may be "more reflective", but all these indicies have built in biases, and so none of them is a guaranteed of what future Real value gold will hit at some future point. If enough people follow the Gold-in-Official-CPI measure, then you may have many selling when it hits a Double Top by that measure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is ridiculous, GF

How can I know? IMO, you sometimes act like an agent of the paper pushers and "asset" printers. The assertion that you do that for some evil purpose might be ridiculous, and the same is most likely true for Sinclair IMHO.

 

By the way, your own charts seem to show that some other assets: Houses, Brent, etc are not expensive when measured in Gold. I can find many others (like Natural Gas) that may be at all time lows.

 

Why aren't you recommending these, instead of the not-cheap-on-your-charts Yellow metal?

* I think we carefully have to watch these charts.

* Prices over- and undershoot.

* We have not overshot in any meaningful way yet.

* This is the biggest financial crisis ever. So my guess would be that gold prices will overshoot many estimates, even the bullish ones on here, will look like figures out of a long gone world once we're there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

How many here will be satisfied with their Gold investments if a Gold ounce falls back to its 2001 purchasing power?

 

HI BUBB,

 

Gold is going to fall back to 200$/oz but then there will be no physical on sale. You will have GLD willing to sell you some shares, some gold backed fund willing to invest your money for returns etc. but you shall never see physical gold sold for 200$/oz though the paper price may fall to that price. Physical gold is too valuable to have 200$/oz price tag.

 

Fortunately the super rich and the third world nobodies know this. The rest of us are in the middle of the spectrum. Some of us want to trade and invest our way into brighter future, most want to stick to their day jobs and make the excess savings in gold.

 

Why are you so obsessed with conspiracy theories?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

No one forces you to read any of it.

As the year draws on, you may see more and more so-called conspiracy material intrude into what you consider reality. Just this week the Gold-back bonds have once again popped up in the mainstream news. And now we are seeing a rash of top bankers resigning. Before this year is out, I predict that many hear will be thanking me for opening their eyes, just as I did on HPC to the debt crisis. Remember I bought DebtBubble.com well before anyone thought there was a debt problem. And I bought and still own GoldStock.co.uk. Who else do you know, apart from a Marc Faber or Jim Rogers who saw these things so early? I have now jumped ahead of MF and JR in pointing the way towards "disclosure". I may be wrong on this, but just give it another year or so to see what happens.

 

 

You have been a great trader. Perhaps you could be the best.

 

But extrapolating your insight into reading the financial futures before many people are interested, clearly means the BIG KAHUNA EVENT is very very close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-janjuah-markets-are-so-rigged-policy-makers-i-have-no-meaningful-insights-offer

 

Good article from Bob Janjuah, coming to to much the same conclusions as many on GEI.

 

The big kahuna or the bursting of the latest liquidity driven bubble 'could, be 5 days, 5 weeks, or 5 quarters'. He also says he expects the DOW/Gold ratio to resolve at 7000 in a deflationary credit collapse rather than at 14000 and hyperinflation, because Bernak and Draghi will loose their mandate from the population to print before the public looses faith in the currency.

 

Hmmmm....- I think I got a new catchphrase. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... because Bernak and Draghi will loose their mandate from the population to print before the public looses faith in the currency.

The Bernank has already hyper-inflated and it is only invisible to the sheeple since velocity has dropped all this time. Once it reverses, the game is up, no matter whether the Bernank is in charge at the time. This is politically irreversible. Baked in the cake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not better... it's more honest and I think the reasons are obvious.

 

 

 

That is using the ShadowStats inflation model, I presume.

 

Kindly tell us why it is better than CPI?

 

"Real Gold" by another measure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HI BUBB,

 

Gold is going to fall back to 200$/oz but then there will be no physical on sale. You will have GLD willing to sell you some shares, some gold backed fund willing to invest your money for returns etc. but you shall never see physical gold sold for 200$/oz though the paper price may fall to that price. Physical gold is too valuable to have 200$/oz price tag.

 

Fortunately the super rich and the third world nobodies know this. The rest of us are in the middle of the spectrum. Some of us want to trade and invest our way into brighter future, most want to stick to their day jobs and make the excess savings in gold.

 

Why are you so obsessed with conspiracy theories?

 

Indeed. Chanelling you-know-who for a second, TPTB can't afford paper gold to decouple so badly with physical otherwise real gold will 'go in to hiding'. This will drive the stock-to-flow ratio of gold to infinity, create dollar hyperinflation and destroy the USD Reserve system there and then. This is why we get the managed ascent of paper gold. I suspect the central banks are targeting the minimum paper POG possible to ensure the ongoing flow of physical.

 

I think we're going to smash through the 1980-SGS CPI price in physical gold without breaking sweat. 1980 was just a dress-rehearsal for the end of the USD reserve system, with a superspike that I believe was caused by panic buying in size by the Middle East and some central banks (Iran, ironically enough) bidding for gold in the open market. Where is Volcker this time? Who is willing and able to impose mass poverty on the West with 20% interest rates?

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-janjuah-markets-are-so-rigged-policy-makers-i-have-no-meaningful-insights-offer

 

Good article from Bob Janjuah, coming to to much the same conclusions as many on GEI.

 

The big kahuna or the bursting of the latest liquidity driven bubble 'could, be 5 days, 5 weeks, or 5 quarters'. He also says he expects the DOW/Gold ratio to resolve at 7000 in a deflationary credit collapse rather than at 14000 and hyperinflation, because Bernak and Draghi will loose their mandate from the population to print before the public looses faith in the currency.

 

Hmmmm....- I think I got a new catchphrase. :D

 

Let me give you some interesting reading Malvern :) Once you understand that hyperinflation is a demand side phenomenon and printing is the supply side response, it becomes somewhat clearer. The question of "how do you get the money into people's hands" is practically irrelevant and misleading.

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-gap-in-understanding-weakens.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html

 

And folks, please do drop by the golbu.gs chat room to share your forecasts, charts, pictures of rockets - whatever - as we watch this gold market unfold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we're going to smash through the 1980-SGS CPI price in physical gold without breaking sweat.

Very well possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very well possible.

 

I may have been exaggerating a wee bit to wind up the dollar bugs :) But I feel that when this paper system - the system that enables flow of physical at such low prices - eventually breaks, it's going to break in truly spectacular fashion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Bernank has already hyper-inflated and it is only invisible to the sheeple since velocity has dropped all this time. Once it reverses, the game is up, no matter whether the Bernank is in charge at the time. This is politically irreversible. Baked in the cake.

Yes, already hyper-inflated. But the hyper-inflation was in debt. If it acts like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a duck.

 

What are you baking in your cake? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, already hyper-inflated. But the hyper-inflation was in debt. If it acts like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a duck.

 

What are you baking in your cake? :D

I am going to have crispy baked duck.

 

The monetary base has been hyper-inflated over the past few years because the hyper-inflated debt was threatening to hyper-deflate. With velocity going into hyper-drive again sooner or later, the hyper-inflated money supply will turn into hyper-inflated prices.

 

My duck will be hyper-crispy and it will be eaten at hyper-velocity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am going to have crispy baked duck.

 

The monetary base has been hyper-inflated over the past few years because the hyper-inflated debt was threatening to hyper-deflate. With velocity going into hyper-drive again sooner or later, the hyper-inflated money supply will turn into hyper-inflated prices.

 

My duck will be hyper-crispy and it will be eaten at hyper-velocity.

This is progress... all we need now is 'was' changed to 'is'. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is progress... all we need now is 'was' changed to 'is'. :D

Not anymore with the Bernank and Super-Mario printing as if there was no tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold represents a little less than 1% of the total value of global investments [stocks, bonds, money markets]. Think about what will happen if that percentage moves up to 2 or 3%. In 1968 it was 5%. In 1980 at the last peak in gold it was 3%. - Felix Zulauf, Swiss money manager

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I revisited Larry's clip from 2/20; he had said gold would encounter resistance at $1780, right where the rally stopped on Wednesday. He was saying that the next major move is to the downside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The recent strong moves in gold and oil, they feel like something is up. What about Iran. Do the insiders know exact dates already?

 

Can someone post an image with current location of all US battle groups?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed. Chanelling you-know-who for a second, TPTB can't afford paper gold to decouple so badly with physical otherwise real gold will 'go in to hiding'. This will drive the stock-to-flow ratio of gold to infinity, create dollar hyperinflation and destroy the USD Reserve system there and then. This is why we get the managed ascent of paper gold. I suspect the central banks are targeting the minimum paper POG possible to ensure the ongoing flow of physical.

 

I think we're going to smash through the 1980-SGS CPI price in physical gold without breaking sweat. 1980 was just a dress-rehearsal for the end of the USD reserve system, with a superspike that I believe was caused by panic buying in size by the Middle East and some central banks (Iran, ironically enough) bidding for gold in the open market. Where is Volcker this time? Who is willing and able to impose mass poverty on the West with 20% interest rates?

 

 

 

Let me give you some interesting reading Malvern :) Once you understand that hyperinflation is a demand side phenomenon and printing is the supply side response, it becomes somewhat clearer. The question of "how do you get the money into people's hands" is practically irrelevant and misleading.

 

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-gap-in-understanding-weakens.html

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html

 

And folks, please do drop by the golbu.gs chat room to share your forecasts, charts, pictures of rockets - whatever - as we watch this gold market unfold.

 

Thanks Quiff, will do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×