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Nice charts Goldfinger. I was reading your comments at the start of the gold thread over at HPC. I wonder what your thoughts are today on this post of yours back in march 2007.

 

"I would not sell below USD 1200, which is in my opinion the equilibrium price today.

But I expect it to go much higher, since markets are not rational. Just look at house

prices - another case where it's difficult to call the max. Inflation adjusted maximum

prices for gold in 1980 were around USD 2000/ GBP 900 per ounce. That might give

you an idea. Gold would have to triple from where it is now. But 1980 was not Armageddon."

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=43821&st=15

 

BTW, your in box is full.

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Nice charts Goldfinger. I was reading your comments at the start of the gold thread over at HPC. I wonder what your thoughts are today on this post of yours back in march 2007.

 

"I would not sell below USD 1200, which is in my opinion the equilibrium price today.

But I expect it to go much higher, since markets are not rational. Just look at house

prices - another case where it's difficult to call the max. Inflation adjusted maximum

prices for gold in 1980 were around USD 2000/ GBP 900 per ounce. That might give

you an idea. Gold would have to triple from where it is now. But 1980 was not Armageddon."

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=43821&st=15

 

BTW, your in box is full.

My thoughts are that they have really moved the goal posts by printing shed loads of money. Just look at how the Fed's balance sheet has changed since then, e.g. take the $1,200 and multiply with the factor the balance sheet of the Fed has increased since then (where would we be, $3,000?). Then try to figure how it WILL change from here... I also paid less attention to money supply and velocity at the time. Had I done so, I'd most likely not called $1,200 an equilibrium (I was a little too much influenced by van Eeden's model back then). Also note that I used government CPI in that statement. I am still on a learning curve, and was all that time, like hopefully everyone. That possibly explains why I was more happy to write about much higher potential gold prices over time, when I moved my focus more to the monetary models for the gold price. As for the overshooting part, yes, I think this will happen again. It's most likely going to be maniac, so we haven't seen any of this yet.

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My thoughts are that they have really moved the goal posts by printing shed loads of money. Just look at how the Fed's balance sheet has changed since then, e.g. take the $1,200 and multiply with the factor the balance sheet of the Fed has increased since then (where would we be, $3,000?). Then try to figure how it WILL change from here... I also paid less attention to money supply and velocity at the time. Had I done so, I'd most likely not called $1,200 an equilibrium (I was a little too much influenced by van Eeden's model back then). Also note that I used government CPI in that statement. I am still on a learning curve, and was all that time, like hopefully everyone. That possibly explains why I was more happy to write about much higher potential gold prices over time, when I moved my focus more to the monetary models for the gold price. As for the overshooting part, yes, I think this will happen again. It's most likely going to be maniac, so we haven't seen any of this yet.

 

Thanks, I thought this would be your view, but its nice to hear it and Im sure others will agree.

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Hey guys, which one is the 5 million oz gold, $200 million cash late-stage developer at $100 million market cap that Jim Puplava recently referred to in his interview with John Ing?

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Hey guys, which one is the 5 million oz gold, $200 million cash late-stage developer at $100 million market cap that Jim Puplava recently referred to in his interview with John Ing?

 

Hi GF,

 

Seen discussed elsewhere, best guess - Keegan Resources Inc?

 

Hope this helps.

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Hi GF,

 

Seen discussed elsewhere, best guess - Keegan Resources Inc?

 

Hope this helps.

Hmm, I thought he had said $100M market cap, while Keegan have $300M at the moment. But I have no better guess myself really.

 

BTW, I wanted to start a thread on completely unhedged, debt-free, but dividend paying producers/developers. Are there any pure gold or silver plays anyhow that tick all these boxes? I don't mean royalties/streamers, because they have counterparty risk too. Anyway, just an idea.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/china-s-gold-imports-from-hong-kong-climb-to-record-on-investment-demand.html

China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Climb to Record on Investment Demand

...

China’s gold imports from Hong Kong surged to a record in November as consumers bought the metal before the Lunar New Year this month and investors sought to hedge against turmoil in financial markets.

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Hmm, I thought he had said $100M market cap, while Keegan have $300M at the moment. But I have no better guess myself really.

 

BTW, I wanted to start a thread on completely unhedged, debt-free, but dividend paying producers/developers. Are there any pure gold or silver plays anyhow that tick all these boxes? I don't mean royalties/streamers, because they have counterparty risk too. Anyway, just an idea.

 

I listened to this one too.. He said mkt cap was $300m, Cash in bank was $200m. He mentioned that you'd be buying the 5m oz for $100m.. Its Keegan alright. They need at least$500m to get into production and their properties are in Africa.

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I listened to this one too.. He said mkt cap was $300m, Cash in bank was $200m. He mentioned that you'd be buying the 5m oz for $100m.. Its Keegan alright.

Agreed. My mistake.

 

They need at least$500m to get into production and their properties are in Africa.

Yes, what Puplava said sounded a little like a "Milchmädchenrechnung" to me.

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BTW, I wanted to start a thread on completely unhedged, debt-free, but dividend paying producers/developers. Are there any pure gold or silver plays anyhow that tick all these boxes? I don't mean royalties/streamers, because they have counterparty risk too. Anyway, just an idea.

 

Are you going to do the miner's thread in this section or is it buried somewhere else?

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Thanks for mentioning Medusa. I have never had a closer look at them, but I will.

 

I guess I should move some of this into a new thread?

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Technician John Bollinger: Gold Bull Market Has Ended

 

From Financial Sense Newshour:

 

From 07:00, any comments?

 

*shrug* Who knows? There's no real counter-argument to a point that says "the chart looks like X so the price will do Y". There's no rationality, reasoning or evidence behind it. I suspect such "technical analysis", that is really only a product of the last 40 years, will be discredited completely by the end of this financial crisis.

 

They have managed to paint a pretty bearish-looking descending triangle on the charts though. I can't say I'm selling my gold and awaiting the coming bull market in banker paper with baited breath.

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Technician John Bollinger: Gold Bull Market Has Ended

...

From 07:00, any comments?

That's what happens if you do some stats without using the brain.

 

There's no real counter-argument to a point that says "the chart looks like X so the price will do Y". There's no rationality, reasoning or evidence behind it.

His newest software even enables you to make up your own crudo. ;)

 

I suspect such "technical analysis", that is really only a product of the last 40 years, will be discredited completely by the end of this financial crisis.

One would hope so. But somehow I fear there will always be people who believe in it, just like the Lizzard Men or similar. People want and tend to be irrational. It's the animal in us. It's hard to overcome.

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Technician John Bollinger: Gold Bull Market Has Ended

He would have said exactly the same at the tops in 06 and 08 based on those technical signals. :rolleyes:

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Is this because there had been an increase in investment metal?

 

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India has changed the import duty on gold to two percent of value from the earlier flat 300 rupees per 10 grams, sending the shares of jewellery makers lower.

 

The world's biggest importer of bullion has also altered silver import duty to six percent of value from the earlier 1,500 rupees per kilogram, the government said in a statement.

 

Shares of Rajesh Exports (REXP.NS) fell nearly three percent after the announcement.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/india-changes-import-duty-gold-084809110.html

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Gold is at an interesting point technically, with the 50/200 DMA about to cross, spot gold just leapt above both.

goldcross.jpg

 

 

 

Just 10 more dollars, it could explode upwards. Not over yet though, methinks.

gold1h.jpg

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