Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I am slightly disappointed that so few here have been plugged into this story as it has rolled out. Too many here just repeat the nonsense that comes from the Gold-ramping sites, and have had trouble seeing the bigger picture.

 

Have those constantly spewing out targets like $2500 Gold or $100 Silver really served anyone, apart from their own interests?

 

Hey, you are a clever guy, you correctly warned against the over enthusiasm of the gold bugs earlier this year and I hope that you have made a lot of money from being correct and that others have followed your advice and made/not lost money. There are a lot of extremely clever and open-minded people on this site, but I don't think anyone else has taken these claims seriously, and quite a few have gently mocked them. Does that not say anything?

 

 

Look, here is another Wilcock claim that is completely ridiculous.

 

If you're not paying attention in American history class, you could easily miss that one day where your teacher talks about how Chinese "slaves" were largely responsible for building the first transcontinental railroad between 1863 and 1869.

 

The slang name for these laborers was the "Coolies". Apparently they were the best at shimmying down ropes, planting dynamite in holes cut in the rock, lighting the dynamite and climbing back up the ropes fast enough to avoid getting blown up.

 

The reality is very different. The "Coolies" were not slaves at all. They were highly-skilled professional builders sent over from Asia. The Chinese didn't trust Americans to do the job. They sent over their own people to make sure everything went smoothly.

 

Apparently the Chinese rulers were dedicated to building railways throughout the US in the 1860's and sent their best railway builders to manage it. I have to wonder firstly, why they didn't actually build any railways in China beforehand, the first railway in China opening in 1876. And secondly, given that their were no railways in China, where did all the skilled Chinese railway engineers come from?

 

Call me closed minded if you like, but I would rather follow documented proof and history, rather than someone making up unsubstantiated, logically ridiculous and easily proven false claims. I shan't write any more on this subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything that needs to be said about gold has been said. Everything that needs to be written has already been written.

 

Sometimes the best you can do is just wait.

 

A farmer tills his land, sows his seeds, irrigates the land and then he waits. Thats where we are today.

 

Why discuss the physical gold market ad nauseum and explain the same things.

 

Its getting boring and tiresome to explain to bUBB this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently the Chinese rulers were dedicated to building railways throughout the US in the 1860's and sent their best railway builders to manage it. I have to wonder firstly, why they didn't actually build any railways in China beforehand, the first railway in China opening in 1876. And secondly, given that their were no railways in China, where did all the skilled Chinese railway engineers come from?

 

Call me closed minded if you like, but I would rather follow documented proof and history, rather than someone making up unsubstantiated, logically ridiculous and easily proven false claims. I shan't write any more on this subject.

I don't think the Chinese sent "their best railroad builders" - since they weren't yet building rail networks across China. But they did send over effective labor. They obviously had loads of people seeking jobs - and they still do. The Coolie work teams were mostly under the management of the Chinese, who were seen to handle them more effectively than foreigners who did not speak their language.

 

I don't know where Wilcock got some of his strange ideas about the quality of the Chinesework force, but he may be right about their being more of a story here than simply slave labor. Perhaps you should look into it a bit more closely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything that needs to be said about gold has been said. Everything that needs to be written has already been written.

 

Sometimes the best you can do is just wait.

 

A farmer tills his land, sows his seeds, irrigates the land and then he waits. Thats where we are today.

 

Why discuss the physical gold market ad nauseum and explain the same things.

 

Its getting boring and tiresome to explain to bUBB this.

I dont see explanations, only excuses for Gold's poor performance.

Meantime, I am happy to buy Gold calls with Gold below $1600, leaving some powder dry for lower prices, in case we see them. The permabulls have been shouting "buying opportunity" all the way down, with me asking: "Why what?" while I have shown how you can be patient and keep your powder dry, and generate cash from trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont see explanations, only excuses for Gold's poor performance.

(1) The shorts trying to manipulate a thin market during the holidays.

(2) The manic traders throwing their only financial insurance away for "technical" reasons.

(3) The US Dollar appearing "strong" given the Euro mess.

(4) People preferring to believe truly absurd stories about Chinese railway experts and huge hidden amounts of gold rather than looking at simple economic and monetary facts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I never gave a timeframe, which i s why I am sure $2500 will come (see the FED devaluing the dollar?)-- but I believe $100/Oz silver will come [$100 in today's money] because there simply isn't the incentive to recycle it otherwise.

 

Without a timeframe isn't the prediction just meaningless? Over time what doesn't increase in price? I predict a loaf of bread will cost £5 but I cannot say when, does that make me a guru?

 

Re the decrease in purchasing power of the dollar isn't that partly reflected in the increase in wages? People don't earn now what they did in 1930 they earn more of those dollars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold laughing into the face of the army of naysayers.

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/31_Richard_Russell_-_We_are_Watching_Market_History_in_Gold.html

Below are the last day of the year quotes for gold.

 

 

2000 -- $273.60

 

2001 -- $279.00

 

2002 -- $348.20

 

2003 -- $416.10

 

2004 -- $438.40

 

2005 -- $518.90

 

2006 -- $638.00

 

2007 -- $838.00

 

2008 -- $889.00

 

2009 -- $1096.50

 

2010 -- $1421.40

 

2011 -- $1566.80

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(4) People preferring to believe truly absurd stories about Chinese railway experts and huge hidden amounts of gold rather than looking at simple economic and monetary facts.

LOL.

I don't think that one has impacted the market.

At least not yet.

 

The fringe community interested in Wilcock, doesn't (yet) much overlap with the Gold Bug community,

except a bit on GEI.

 

That may change as the new year draws on.

 

Meantime, I have turned bullish (on Gold and Silver) as the world seems to have turned Bearish. But I remain cautious enough to want to "play it with options", keeping some big powder dry.

=== ===

 

Looking back at 2011.

Only one of FBB's forecasters mentioned "Earth Changes" in his forecast for 2011.

 

How did CBS News sum up the year just gone?:

"World rings in 2012 and bids adieu to a tough year

CBS News - ‎19 minutes ago‎

(AP) PARIS - With glittering fireworks and celebrations from New Zealand to Times Square, the world eagerly welcomed a new year and hope for a better future Saturday, saying goodbye to a year of hurricanes, tsunamis and economic turmoil that many would rather forget."

/see: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57350627/world-rings-in-2012-and-bids-adieu-to-a-tough-year/

 

Perhaps one could take my "crazy forecast" for 2012 at least a little bit seriously.

 

Even so, as I said on the Happy New Year thread:

"I certainly hope my more dire forecasts for 2012 are wrong.

And I would rather be teased for being silly than be right.

But I could not allow the year to start without some sort of warnings

of some events which I truly believe can happen. "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winners and Losers in 2011

 

Some famous folk got it wrong in 2011

Of course, there's John Paulsen... and many other Gold bugs.

 

 

Here's a forecast from a guy I still respect greatly.

This one looks a tad underwater at year end, but in fact was well timed.

 

Marc Faber says QE3, More Inflation Coming and Advises Buying Gold Now (originally aired 07/15/11)

Faber: Ben Bernanke doesn’t understand international economics

 

MP3 : http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-1223-1.mp3

Dr. Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report joins Jim Puplava on Financial Sense Newshour in a wide-ranging interview to discuss Ben Bernanke, QE3, inflation, gold and much more.

 

On 07/15/11, GLD closed at: $155.20 , and Gold (10.31x GLD): $1,600

 

The subsequent parabolic move was to GLD-$184.59 on 8/22, and it only took a few weeks.

 

So I have to regard Faber as a Winning forecaster for Gold in 2012.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont see explanations, only excuses for Gold's poor performance.

Meantime, I am happy to buy Gold calls with Gold below $1600, leaving some powder dry for lower prices, in case we see them. The permabulls have been shouting "buying opportunity" all the way down, with me asking: "Why what?" while I have shown how you can be patient and keep your powder dry, and generate cash from trading.

 

Gold has had a 12 year bull market. Gold has outperformed every asset class. So I do not get your 'excuse' for gold's poor performance.

 

I generate cash by making dentures, doing root fillings, placing implants, fabricating veneers etc etc. I do not need to trade, and neither do 95% of homo sapiens. My dry powder is spent on eating out, purchasing music, travelling when ever the tiny one allows us etc. etc. and whatever is left goes into physical gold.

 

I tell you its a winning strategy without any stress associated with trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold has had a 12 year bull market. Gold has outperformed every asset class. So I do not get your 'excuse' for gold's poor performance.

. . .

I tell you its a winning strategy without any stress associated with trading.

We've been over this ground (trading versus Buy&Hold) loads of times.

Sadly, I now see B&H folk who are underwater on the average price of their holdings of Silver,

and even on gold.

 

If you think "that is fine, because they can hold it for the long term", then I really have nothing to say,

since you will probably be right in the long term. But you know what Keynes said about the long term...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We've been over this ground (trading versus Buy&Hold) loads of times.

Sadly, I now see B&H folk who are underwater on the average price of their holdings of Silver,

and even on gold.

 

If you think "that is fine, because they can hold it for the long term", then I really have nothing to say,

since you will probably be right in the long term. But you know what Keynes said about the long term...

 

If we have monetary deflation (the leverage is removed from the system) then I guess the price of Gold and Silver has to go down along with everything else.

 

The question would be how much do they go down with respect to other assets and comsumables.

 

As far as Buy and Hold verus trading goes I would love to be able to do this to protect my profits and then reinvest once the price has fallen unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball.

 

Also I know it's been covered 1000 times on here before but why assume we won't have hyperinflation and the currency be printed to destruction, surely that's the pattern of history, why will it be different this time, because the dollar is the global reserve?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The question would be how much do they go down with respect to other assets and comsumables.

 

As far as Buy and Hold verus trading goes I would love to be able to do this to protect my profits and then reinvest once the price has fallen unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball.

 

Also I know it's been covered 1000 times on here before but why assume we won't have hyperinflation and the currency be printed to destruction, surely that's the pattern of history, why will it be different this time, because the dollar is the global reserve?

Yes.

They are what they are - a form of money, and will remain so, I reckon, even if we have deflation or hyperinflation.

Why not assume that Hyperinfation can be prevented? Anything can happen. (Including natural disasters, destroying demand, and/or a currency backed by other commodities along with gold, or besides Gold.) So hyperinflation is not guaranteed.

 

As I have said elsewhere, there may be far more gold than many think -

And if it gets sold or used in some way, it could be a game-changer.

 

Also, my intuition somehow tells me (don't laugh please!) than Gold bulls are susceptible to manipulation by people who may be holding onto some of those vast "secret" Gold reserve. (I have had this information from a source, which is not David Wilcock, months ago. It may be misinformation, but it has been fascinating to see this strange tale being developed by Wilcock into such a bizarre and fascinating story AFTER I started worrying about the amount of Gold in the world.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Assuming you are correct and there is many multiples of gold out there

than we have been told , is the same also true for silver ?

Considering that the ratio in ground is 10-1 that would make for

so much silver that we couldnt even refer to it as a PM

Now its always good to be open minded about all possibilities

and should a gold standard be re introduced it allows the ptb the ability

to QE the gold market .

Are you convinced enough as to the non PM status of gold to stop buying it

you have said you will buy at sub $1600 which I dont understand

or are you hedging your bets on what may or may not be factual.

For me its just an insurance policy against collapse

10-15% in PMs may save me if it all goes t*ts up but it wont bust me

if it collapses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the questions

Assuming you are correct and there is many multiples of gold out there

than we have been told , is the same also true for silver ?

I have no idea. Perhaps not

 

Considering that the ratio in ground is 10-1 that would make for

so much silver that we couldnt even refer to it as a PM

People may see the ratio differently, if there are 2mn MT of Gold, rather than 160,000 MT

 

Now its always good to be open minded about all possibilities and should a gold standard be re introduced it allows the ptb the ability to QE the gold market .

Nope. Gold should not be sole backing. Bill Still came to the same conclusion, and perhaps for the same reason. although he has never expressed it, as far as I know.

 

Are you convinced enough as to the non PM status of gold to stop buying it you have said you will buy at sub $1600 which I dont understand

I have bought already - though I bought mainly calls on GLD, SLV, and SLW

 

or are you hedging your bets on what may or may not be factual.

The calls were not only for this reason - The charts are less bullish than they might have been

 

For me its just an insurance policy against collapse 10-15% in PMs may save me if it all goes t*ts up but it wont bust me if it collapses.

Makes sense

See my comments within the quotes, after the questions

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have put up with ENORMOUS resistance here and elsewhere in trying to get a more open minded message out. I should have thought that at least a few people would have now seen some value in examining other ideas rather than following the lemmings repeating mindless mantras about $2500 Gold coming within weeks or months.

Agree with "the weeks". Disagree with "the months". Gold looks now, around 1550, to have consolidated to the long term trend [20% odd annual appreciation]. 2012 would put the trend at 1900, with 2013 at 2300. So, by the charts, gold could easily spike through 2500 in another 12 months or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont see explanations, only excuses for Gold's poor performance.

I've been predicting, on this thread, the actual performance of gold for a few years now: 20% odd annual appreciation against the dollar. All to the chagrin of a certain sector of the gold community. When gold went through 1650, I predicted it would waver through that mark a few times for quite a few months. When gold spiked to 1900, I predicted it would come back and consolidate to the trend. Predictions have been well corroborated. The explanation, or theory for it [for those into theory], was gold would be monetized in a deflationary environment.

 

Note: a theory does not have to be strictly speaking true [how can it]. It just has to work. Mine has worked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been predicting, on this thread, the actual performance of gold for a few years now: 20% odd annual appreciation against the dollar. All to the chagrin of a certain sector of the gold community. When gold went through 1650, I predicted it would waver through that mark a few times for quite a few months. When gold spiked to 1900, I predicted it would come back and consolidate to the trend. Predictions have been well corroborated. The explanation, or theory for it [for those into theory], was gold would be monetized in a deflationary environment.

 

Note: a theory does not have to be strictly speaking true [how can it]. It just has to work. Mine has worked.

Yeah, and that might offer a decent basis for some trading around a core position.

(For example, by trading when Gold is at one side or the other of a channel, but keeping in mind that a major breakout may be most likely on the upside of the channel, if we move into Global hyperinflation.

 

I also think you need to look at Gold in other currencies.

 

Here's Gold-in-Sterling (using FXB)

goldinfxb.png

 

Here's Gold-in-Euros (using FXE)

goldinfxe.png

 

Here's Gold-in-Yen (using FXY)

goldinfxf2.png

 

The most likely further falls look to be: Gold-in-Euros, and Gold-in-FXF

 

Here's Gold-in-Swiss Franc (using FXF)

goldinfxb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, and that might offer a decent basis for some trading around a core position.

 

I also think you need to look at Gold in other currencies.

From my perspective, the dollar is the next best currency after gold. It makes more sense to trade the more volatile silver than gold, keeping gold as core.

 

It is better to trade silver against the dollar, as when the risk off trade is on the other currencies tend to weaken with silver [Yen might be the exception to this]. Silver/ Dollar is a good contrary trading pair.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite right and well said. Why anyone would perpetuate anything that Wilcox says is frightening, the man's a conspiracy loon.

 

 

 

Now I am fairly open minded, I am aware of the voyages of Zheng He and his mighty fleet, I am prepared to accept that the Chinese might have "discovered" the US before the Europeans.

 

I am sorry but I just find that completely implausible. The idea of huge fleets of Chinese junks, and they would need to be literally hundreds of ships to carry that much gold, the provisions and soldiers and warships needed to protect such a treasure, sailing all the way across the pacific ocean, around the south tip of Argentina and then through the pirate infested waters of the Caribbean to the US without a single mention of it any history book or contemporary source and without the Pirates, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Portuguese or the British trying to attack it is just ridiculous. The number of ships and men lost, operating thousands of miles away from friendly bases, and in just about the most dangerous part of the world for sailing ships without accurate navigation and maps and exposed to all kind of new and dangerous diseases would be appalling. Even in the early twentieth century such a voyage would be somewhat dangerous, look at the journey of the Russian fleet to participate in the Russo-Japanese war. And then these kind of trips were apparently done multiple times, by Asian rulers who are happily giving away colossal amounts of money and power with no apparent benefit to themselves apart from the secure knowledge that they would be playing a great part in influencing the global geopolitical situation in two or three hundred years time?

 

Can you see how absurd it looks to someone without such an open mind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good post! My sentiments exactly!

 

 

 

Everything that needs to be said about gold has been said. Everything that needs to be written has already been written.

 

Sometimes the best you can do is just wait.

 

A farmer tills his land, sows his seeds, irrigates the land and then he waits. Thats where we are today.

 

Why discuss the physical gold market ad nauseum and explain the same things.

 

Its getting boring and tiresome to explain to bUBB this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite right and well said. Why anyone would perpetuate anything that Wilcox says is frightening, the man's a conspiracy loon.

You need not believe anything that David Wilcock says, and then you would still be left with the strong possibility that there is far more Gold than the mainstream estimate of 160,000 MT. Here's another source for a much higher estimate:

 

xx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indian gold imports plunge in Q4, seen down in Q1

 

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Gold imports by India, the world's top consumer, plunged 56 percent to 125 tonnes in the fourth quarter, cutting full-year imports by 8.4 percent as record high prices and high interest rates hit demand, the head of India's leading bullion body said.

 

India, whose appetite for gold dates back centuries, imported about 878 tonnes of gold in 2011, down from 958 tonnes in 2010, Bombay Bullion Association President Prithviraj Kothari said in an interview on Monday.

 

The World Gold Council said in November that for the fourth quarter it expected the world's second most populous country to buy more than the 281 tonnes it bought in the same period a year ago, taking total imports over 1,000 tonnes.

 

The October-December quarter covers the peak festival and wedding season, when Indians traditionally splurge on gold jewellery and investments. It is rare for gold demand in the last quarter to remain below third quarter consumption.

 

"Imports were very bad in October to December, compared with last year, compared with Q3 of this year," Kothari said.

 

"People were even selling gold in November. For them it was an investment," he added.

 

Indian gold prices hit a record high of 29,516 rupees per 10 grams on November 15. International gold prices touched an all-time high of $1,920.3 per ounce in September.

 

In local currency terms, the price of gold jumped 32 percent in 2011, tracking firmness in the world market and taking into account a 16 percent drop in the value of the rupee.

 

One reason behind the weak demand in the last quarter of the year was the increase in purchases during the first nine months, when many Indians snapped up gold bars and coins, hoping that prices would rally further, Kothari said.

 

In the first nine months of 2011, investment demand for gold in India rose 22.5 percent from a year earlier to 272.1 tonnes, data from the WGC showed.

 

But the rise in investment interest during 2011 was not sufficient to overcome a sharp drop in jewellery demand, Kothari said.

 

"Jewellery sales were very low. Investment demand rose in 2011. People were interested in coins and bars. The share of investment demand in total demand has risen to 35 percent in 2011," Kothari said.

 

Investment demand accounted for about 22.6 percent of total demand in 2010, WGC data showed.

 

India imports almost all of its gold requirements.

 

DEMAND WORRIES TO STAY

 

The factors that eroded demand and imports in the fourth quarter are likely to hurt demand in the first quarter of 2012, Kothari said.

 

"Still prices are high. Interest rates are high. Liquidity is tight. I think imports in the first quarter of 2012 will be 50 percent lower than last year," he said.

 

India imported 286 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2011, WGC data shows.

 

Gold prices in India are likely to move between 24,000 and 35,000 rupees per 10 grams in 2012, while the world price could range between $1,430 and $2,000 per ounce, Kothari said.

 

The most-active gold futures contract for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange was trading down 0.1 percent at 27,303 rupees per 10 grams by 1000 GMT.

 

In the world market, gold was trading at $1,565.31 per ounce.

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-gold-imports-plunge-q4-102109225.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold, Silver Gain After Reports That Iran Made First Nuclear Rod

 

January 02, 2012, 1:01 PM EST

 

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver gained after reports that Iran produced its first nuclear fuel rod, spurring investors to buy the precious metal as a haven.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-02/gold-silver-gain-after-reports-that-iran-made-first-nuclear-rod.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

David Wilcocks claims there is an additional 1,880,000+ MT of gold held out of the markets by the BIS & the FED to protect the fiat (non-gold backed) system and the Chinese want it back. He goes further and says he was told there is a hall, a mile long with rooms either side of the hall, the size of basket ball gymnasiums, stacked floor to ceiling with gold bricks. This is classic unified conspiracy nonsense, where every [suspicious|unprovable] activity for the last 66 years is connected to the story, to include JFK's assassination, September 11th and the collapse of building 7. To top it all off, David Wilcock's source in all of this is the insane Benjamin Fulford. You couldn't make this up... actually they did.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FQKn8fcpAM

 

You need not believe anything that David Wilcock says, and then you would still be left with the strong possibility that there is far more Gold than the mainstream estimate of 160,000 MT. Here's another source for a much higher estimate:

 

xx

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×