GOLD

[50sQuiff]

Interesting things are happening. This is a shameless plug, but on goldbu.gs we're currently watching premiums spike in real-time at a major European coin dealer. This is very unusual.

 

This decline in gold is not being completely passed on from the dealer in question. Either MF Global has damaged physical dealer hedging strategies and we will have higher spreads going forward, or there is pressure on physical.

[signofthetimes]

I wish they'd stop p1ssing about........come on you tossers, sell, sell sell ALL your paper NOW, crash the spot price to <$1000. Pat yourselves on the back and deposit your fiat.

[Kapouillax]

25%? I am not sure what you mean? (The drop on GLD, I suppose)

For SLV, at $30, the drop from $50 is 40%. At $25, it would be half.

That's not a trivial opportunity loss.

 

Also, some like Bob Chapman may have GIVEN UP ALL THEIR SILVER PROFITS, it the price falls as low as $18-25. Frankly, that is not a great move, and I hope you can see why.

 

What's the point in seeing a price double, and then watching it fall back and wipe out ALL of one's gains? That is not something to be complacent about, and would suggest that there are better ways of managing ones wealth.

 

People need to be more honest with themselves, more disciplined, and maybe willing to learn some new techniques.

 

You can go to other sites where they will tell you how to stay happy with huge opportunity losses like that. But I put myself in the place of others, and reckon that GEI offers something different: Consistent honesty and integrity : To help others learn the techniques which will help them master the challenges of managing wealth and thriving in what JHK calls a "Long eMergency."

 

Actually I was hypothesing the (probably impossible) loss to physical gold down to, say, 500$... Some long term B&H might still be in the money...

 

I completely agree with you about how crazy one would be to see one's profit disappear without acting, but I was just pointing out that it might not matter so much to some long term b&h'ers who may also view it purely as an "insurance fund" for if/when the financial system collapses.

 

I suppose that, it depends also on what use you have of it. In your case, it's your main source of income (trading, in general, i'm assuming), for others, it's a lump of money they save "in case the excrements hit the propeller". I can understand both views. I'm personally sitting in-between as I have some medium term goals for the money (so, I have to maximise its value), but I also want to keep a proportion of physical as core holding.

 

I don't see both views as mutually exclusive, and, in fact, I split my holdings in two chunks, one purely B&H, and the other where I try to follow your "beating B&H" advice strategy (or, at least, a UK-tax-and-currency-friendly proxy equivalent).

 

(going 100% certain 100% hardcore B&H sound crazy to me, but who am I to know )

[50sQuiff]

Actually I was hypothesing the (probably impossible) loss to physical gold down to, say, 500$... Some long term B&H might still be in the money...

 

I completely agree with you about how crazy one would be to see one's profit disappear without acting, but I was just pointing out that it might not matter so much to some long term b&h'ers who may also view it purely as an "insurance fund" for if/when the financial system collapses.

 

I suppose that, it depends also on what use you have of it. In your case, it's your main source of income (trading, in general, i'm assuming), for others, it's a lump of money they save "in case the excrements hit the propeller". I can understand both views. I'm personally sitting in-between as I have some medium term goals for the money (so, I have to maximise its value), but I also want to keep a proportion of physical as core holding.

 

I don't see both views as mutually exclusive, and, in fact, I split my holdings in two chunks, one purely B&H, and the other where I try to follow your "beating B&H" advice strategy (or, at least, a UK-tax-and-currency-friendly proxy equivalent).

 

(going 100% certain 100% hardcore B&H sound crazy to me, but who am I to know )

 

Kap, my gold is my house fund and on that basis I buy with a 5-year horizon. Do you think it's worth hedging with such a timescale in mind or would you prefer a disciplined accumulation approach (buying weakness)?

 

I'm just interested in what your view of medium-term is and your perspective in general.

[Manual labourer]

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-31/markets/30341162_1_gold-holdings-john-paulson-twitterer

 

I posted a few weeks ago Gold COULD GET BACK DOWN TO 12OO area, think of it as a buying chance.

 

 

If everybody was buying gold I would be worried they are not. See link above.

 

 

 

Take the chance to buy more at lower prices! The Sales wont last for ever.

 

Regards

 

ML

[Kapouillax]

Kap, my gold is my house fund and on that basis I buy with a 5-year horizon. Do you think it's worth hedging with such a timescale in mind or would you prefer a disciplined accumulation approach (buying weakness)?

 

I'm just interested in what your view of medium-term is and your perspective in general.

 

Take this with a pinch of salt as I clearly don't claim to be an expert, but:

- Short term timescale : in the next weeks, after the Euro zone finds a (temporary) resolve. I'm hoping for a nice big chunk of money print... Well, hoping, and not. Hoping for the immediate sake of Gold's price, not hoping for the actual medium term (economic) consequences.

- Medium term timescale : in the next year to 2 years. Depending on what will be decided in the next days/weeks, what will happen? I expect, if more printing, we'll have another big bounce for Au (and Ag), possibly leading to the final exponential blowout. Otherwise, I expect we'll have a strong(er) risk of entering a bear market for gold (so I'll be watching out for that and change my investing strategy...).

- Long term, is 20-30 years time, who knows, but I expect Au will have appreciated. That said, earth might be a barren rock by then, so we'd have maybe other things to worry about

 

But for the timescale you consider (5 years), I have the vague intuition that the actual price of Au at that time will be down from where we are now (re: my medium term view).

 

Now, that's considering we somehow keep the current economic system we have now, hence why I also have a safeguarding proportion of physical Au that I try to grow.

 

So that's why I've split up my pool of money, attributing the proportions of each to the chance I see scenario X happening.

[dunker1]

http://citywire.co.uk/money/chart-of-the-day-gold-not-living-up-to-safe-haven-status/a552283?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list

[50sQuiff]

Quite the smash today but gold is off 35% less in sterling terms last time I checked.

 

Here's a few possible lines in the sand. Take your pick:

 

[romans holiday]

.......No point bashing the buy and holders when they have done well to buy and hold over the past few years. Keep in mind also that many buy and holder types have their own forms of hedging. Spikes and consolidations were always a part of the game. If you can trade gold and make more of a profit, well done to you too.

 

Gold has predictably corrected to the long term trend after a spike up. If it trades sideways from here for a few months at around 1600-1650.... that still represents an annually compounding appreciation of around 20% odd.... which has also been predictable.

 

Why get so excited about spikes or corrections when it's the long term trend that's of importance to the [dis]invester?

Gold down? This from near 3 months ago.

 

The best thing to do with gold is just buy some then walk away from it. Right, back to the vege garden.

[drbubb]

I completely agree with you about how crazy one would be to see one's profit disappear without acting, but I was just pointing out that it might not matter so much to some long term b&h'ers who may also view it purely as an "insurance fund" for if/when the financial system collapses.

 

I suppose that, it depends also on what use you have of it. In your case, it's your main source of income (trading, in general, i'm assuming), for others, it's a lump of money they save "in case the excrements hit the propeller"...

Yeah, I get the idea of an "Insurance Fund".

 

But I think many Gold Bigs are ASKING TOO MUCH OF GOLD -

There are some Big Risks that Gold does not hedge.

 

 

I had this conversation with Dominic not many days ago. He was concerned that I did not hold enough Gold, to get me through the Hard Times that are ahead. And I wondered what is the right amount: 3 months, 12 months, 10 years of expenditures?

 

I think that Caitlin Harris put it well on her FS interview: Some people imagine that they will be able to take their Gold and go somewhere and buy groceries when need them.

 

She said: "Well, you might be able to do that once."

 

JP said, "Why, because the shelves would be empty after that?"

 

Her answer may have surprised him: "No. Because someone may see you at the store using your Gold and then follow you home to take the Gold you are saving."

 

I think the BIGGEST RISK in a very hard times may be : WHERE YOU LIVE.

 

 

And then after that: Who are your neighbors and how well off are they. If they are all starving and hungry, then holding vast amounts of gold may simply INCREASE the risk to your personal safety and to that of your neighbors.

[G0ldfinger]

...

I think that Caitlin Harris put it well on her FS interview: Some people imagine that they will be able to take their Gold and go somewhere and buy groceries when need them.

...

Her answer may have surprised him: "No. Because someone may see you at the store using your Gold and then follow you home to take the Gold you are saving."

I guess she has not heard of GoldMoney and online gold payments yet? What's the difference to a portfolio of shares or cash then? Oh, yes, I forgot: some MF might not even hold your money or shares.

[Manual labourer]

Yeah, I get the idea of an "Insurance Fund".

 

But I think many Gold Bigs are ASKING TOO MUCH OF GOLD -

There are some Big Risks that Gold does not hedge.

 

I had this conversation with Dominic not many days ago. He was concerned that I did not hold enough Gold, to get me through the Hard Times that are ahead. And I wondered what is the right amount: 3 months, 12 months, 10 years of expenditures?

 

I think that Caitlin Harris put it well on her FS interview: Some people imagine that they will be able to take their Gold and go somewhere and buy groceries when need them.

 

She said: "Well, you might be able to do that once."

 

JP said, "Why, because the shelves would be empty after that?"

 

Her answer may have surprised him: "No. Because someone may see you at the store using your Gold and then follow you home to take the Gold you are saving."

 

I think the BIGGEST RISK in a very hard times may be : WHERE YOU LIVE.

 

And then after that: Who are your neighbors and how well off are they. If they are all starving and hungry, then holding vast amounts of gold may simply INCREASE the risk to your personal safety and to that of your neighbors.

 

Yep or you buy the LOCAL farm with it!

 

Did everybody who was wise enough to hold gold in Weimar era get robbed?

 

Regards

 

ML

[drbubb]

Yep or you buy the LOCAL farm with it!

Did everybody who was wise enough to hold gold in Weimar era get robbed?

Regards, ML

Some did, obviously. I cannot tell you any tales of that.

But I did read that one sort of "tangible asset" did not fare too well: Property.

Landlords had huge trouble raising rents, and even those who could had to worry about tenants (and non-tenants) doing things like stealing the copper pipes within their flats, and others removing doorknobs and other brass fixtures.

[Manual labourer]

Some did, obviously. I cannot tell you any tales of that.

But I did read that one sort of "tangible asset" did not fare too well: Property.

Landlords had huge trouble raising rents, and even those who could had to worry about tenants (and non-tenants) doing things like stealing the copper pipes within their flats, and others removing doorknobs and other brass fixtures.

 

 

Leveraged Landlords (on fixed rate interrest period loans)most are on 5yr terms why else do you think the CB banks are holding back the crash, most sheeple on 2/3/5 year fixed rates are coming off higher fixed rates onto lower variable rates,the property owners who have the sense to refix now on 5/10year rates will do very very well!!

 

As debts are hyperinflated away from the end of 2012, most b2let people will have remortgaged since 2007!

 

That will be the time the CB raise rates and fry people Hyperinflation will set in debts will be devalued we all start again!!

 

re copper etc being pinched that has always happened!

 

 

 

In the news today a hospital has had to close because some 2hat HAS STOLEN THE COPPER FEED WIRES TO THE BACK UP GENNY!!!!!!!!!

 

Regards

 

ML

[drbubb]

Fulford/Wilcock mp3 available

http://divinecosmos.com/podcasts/Wilcock_Fulford_2011-12-02.mp3

Just under halfway into this, BF talks about how "official estimates" of how much Gold is in existence are wrong. He says the actual amount may be 9-10 times as much (!)

 

If he is right, and the Illuminati hold much of the Gold, then maybe the Gold bugs are being "played" by some well-known Gold gurus, who are doing their best to create buyers for Illuminati Gold when (at some future day) they choose to unload.

 

Worst of all might be a Gold-backed currency, so that these illuminati villains (if they exist, and if they hold vast amounts of gold) would be able to unload all their Gold at a high fixed price, and then convert it into cheap earning assets.

 

(I have expressed this point of view here before, and it has been ridiculed by some, but I think BF's comments and the lawsuit he has been reporting on, shows there may be something to my warnings.)

[drbubb]

Leveraged Landlords (on fixed rate interest period loans) most are on 5yr terms why else do you think the CB banks are holding back the crash, most sheeple on 2/3/5 year fixed rates are coming off higher fixed rates onto lower variable rates, the property owners who have the sense to refix now on 5/10year rates will do very very well!!

 

As debts are hyperinflated away from the end of 2012, most b2let people will have remortgaged since 2007!

Nothing is certain.

There's a risk that rents will fall, and tenants will be unable to pay...

If the UK heads into a deflationary collapse in the UK economy and jobs.

[Van]

Spot gold just briefly dipped below the 200dma @ 1614. Went as low as 1605.

There should be a lot of technical support here; it it goes, it will head much lower.

[drbubb]

Spot gold just briefly dipped below the 200dma @ 1614. Went as low as 1605.

There should be a lot of technical support here; it it goes, it will head much lower.

My current target is about GLD-$152... But no guarantee it will go that hold,

or hold my target price (which I have derived from the 252d/1year MA)

[Kapouillax]

Yeah, I get the idea of an "Insurance Fund".

 

I thought you'd do

I'm merely just putting things into balance. I think you guys are all (mostly) right in your own way, and have different goals.

 

I had this conversation with Dominic not many days ago. He was concerned that I did not hold enough Gold, to get me through the Hard Times that are ahead. And I wondered what is the right amount: 3 months, 12 months, 10 years of expenditures?

And then after that: Who are your neighbors and how well off are they. If they are all starving and hungry, then holding vast amounts of gold may simply INCREASE the risk to your personal safety and to that of your neighbors.

 

All bets are off as to what happens if the whole system collapses.

I don't physically hold my physical gold/silver and let GM/BV do the risky work for me. I understand there are risks with that as well.

I have some cash, in various currencies, in different countries, as well.

I don't own a house (yet... resisting as long as I can my wife's constant pressure), so I can move (and probably will).

 

There's certainly more I can do, I'm sure. I can certainly spend my whole life planning survival strategies.

 

In the meantime, I'll try to implement various strategies with your guidance, DrBubb, and others' on this forum.

I have to reiterate how grateful I am for the advice, by the way.

[drbubb]

All bets are off as to what happens if the whole system collapses.

I don't physically hold my physical gold/silver and let GM/BV do the risky work for me. I understand there are risks with that as well.

I have some cash, in various currencies, in different countries, as well.

I don't own a house (yet... resisting as long as I can my wife's constant pressure), so I can move (and probably will).

 

There's certainly more I can do, I'm sure. I can certainly spend my whole life planning survival strategies.

 

In the meantime, I'll try to implement various strategies with your guidance, DrBubb, and others' on this forum.

I have to reiterate how grateful I am for the advice, by the way.

"All bets are off"... "if the system collapses"?

 

I would have thought that is EXACTLY when you will want your hedges and insurance.

Isn't that precisely the purpose, to have some sort of protection in the event

"the system collapses"?

 

Getting the family onboard with these actions is obviously critical.

That is why you may want to view the film THRIVE with your partner:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15644

 

It is best if you can see eye-to-eye with your partner about the

world, and how it works.

[50sQuiff]

Premiums on Krugerands at a "major dealer" are currently up 52% on the day.

[Indium]

Ouch!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[signofthetimes]

Ouch!

 

 

 

 

 

paper holders feeling the pain today, seems their gold might not be thwere after all?

[drbubb]

Ouch!

That's how you spell:

 

Opportunity

Under

Careful

H--- ? (something with an H?)

[drbubb]

GOLD : now bloomberg is talking about today's "big plunge in Gold"

 

We have hit my target (near GLD-$152) and so I am buying more aggressively.

Do you remember this chart? We have completed, or nearly completed the historical pattern:

 

GLD WEEKLY ... update : SLV-weekly

 

Right now, I am expecting something like a repeat of Gold's 2006 pattern

Today, I have bought:

+ AGQ Calls (2x Silver)

+ SLW Calls

+ UGL Calls (2x Gold)

 

I like responding to opportunity (as shown in my charts) rather than following the rampers on mainstream media, who love to promote investing in Gold when the price is high.