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The point is you will make more money trading, no one disputes this, the point everyone has tried to make is, you won't get out of your trades until it's too late and then you will lose your profits, because you think this endless carousel of money will go around forever, it won't. Hedging wont save you if your brokerage is vaporised like MF Global. When will this get accepted as reality?

 

Oh, nevermind. When does it stop being a fluke, and get accepted as reality?)

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A very interesting post from Turd Ferguson today in which he states that the gold lease rate has gone negative again, exactly as happened in mid September prior to the big precious metals beatdown. Turd is preparing for gold to fall to around 1550 and silver to about 25. I particularly agree with him about silver, the daily chart looks absolutely terrible.

 

"IF 1705 gets taken out overnight or tomorrow (which appears highly likely), buyers will pull bids and gold will rapidly drop toward 1680. IF 1680 fails, gold could fall all the way to 1550."

 

He is also looking at issues to do with the MF-ing Global bankruptcy, and reports that Iran was able to hijack a US drone.

 

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3107/be-wary

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A very interesting post from Turd Ferguson today in which he states that the gold lease rate has gone negative again, exactly as happened in mid September prior to the big precious metals beatdown. Turd is preparing for gold to fall to around 1550 and silver to about 25. I particularly agree with him about silver, the daily chart looks absolutely terrible.

 

"IF 1705 gets taken out overnight or tomorrow (which appears highly likely), buyers will pull bids and gold will rapidly drop toward 1680. IF 1680 fails, gold could fall all the way to 1550."

 

He is also looking at issues to do with the MF-ing Global bankruptcy, and reports that Iran was able to hijack a US drone.

 

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3107/be-wary

 

 

Great. I've got 5 figures waiting for a buy.

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And you should chill out a bit and foster a "live and let live" attitude. :lol:

 

For the non day trader, the chart is abundantly clear that buy and hold has paid off very well.... and with the minimum of time and effort. Give it its dues.

 

I think the "argument" you have is with the 100% "all in" and 100% certain crowd. Actually, the majority that buy gold... and hold, have only put a reasonable percentage of their worth into it... and more often than not hedge that "investment".

I am long gold now, and have been throughout the rally - But I adjust the size of my position up and down to take advantage of buying and selling windows.

 

The BIG DIFFERENCE between my approach and some of the Gold Bugs here is that I take nothing for granted - We can be certain that the Top we have seen is not an important one, because: "Anything can happen."

 

What is ominous now for some of the Bulls is that Open Interest in Gold and Silver continues to shrink, as people DESERT the Gold trade. That's not bullish (yet). The holdings wil need to stabilise before we have a good low.

 

I may buy this DIP in Silver, but I can do so because I took money off the table at higher prices.

 

I am living and Gold-investing on my wits here. I don't have a nice fat salary replenishing my investing capital, which is another important difference from some others here. I am "forced" by that lack of incoming cash flow to take some profits, so I have money to invest at lower profits. If you are lucky enough to have a job that puts investible capital into your bank account, then be grateful you do not need to live on the sharp end. But I suggest you resist the urge to criticise those that do live that way (successfully) and are willing to share their thoughts here, without "something to sell you", or a vested interest in higher gold prices.

 

THE GUYS WHO REALLY NEED DISS-ing

 

The guys who need active shows of disrespect are not people like you and me, who trade around a Core long position. Nor are they individual traders here who may have stayed long gold and silver with the hopes of protecting their wealth. The real villains are those who are out ramping gold, and spreading misinformation and false hopes, especially after a long upwards run. I am thinking of:

 

+ Blackrock : which was telling the public to buy gold, even as they were unloading,

 

+ Pundits like Bob Chapman, who said everyone should hold their silver as it approached a key resistance level at $50 in a parabolic move. Bob has been around a long time and should know better! He said his average cost was $18 per ounce, if he has bought any silver since then, his average may be somewhere near $25. If Silver takes another leg down, he may be underwater on his entire position (!) Do you want to take advice from a guy who thinks and talks like that ??

 

+ Gold enthusiasts like Robert Ian, who famously said: "Never ever ever sell your gold (or silver!)" within pennies of the top.

 

Next time we see blather from people like that in an overheated market, I hope I am not one of a tiny handful here, sounding warning and saying "Beware of rampers!"

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A very interesting post from Turd Ferguson today in which he states that the gold lease rate has gone negative again, exactly as happened in mid September prior to the big precious metals beatdown. Turd is preparing for gold to fall to around 1550 and silver to about 25. I particularly agree with him about silver, the daily chart looks absolutely terrible.

 

"IF 1705 gets taken out overnight or tomorrow (which appears highly likely), buyers will pull bids and gold will rapidly drop toward 1680. IF 1680 fails, gold could fall all the way to 1550."

 

He is also looking at issues to do with the MF-ing Global bankruptcy, and reports that Iran was able to hijack a US drone.

 

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3107/be-wary

I am glad to learn that Turd has finally seen the writing on the wall

 

I haven't boughtback the Gold/GLD/HK2840 short yet - so I am now short 200 GLD shares in the BBH-AP1 portfolio.

At the same time, I have moved down from an aggregate Long position of 10,000 oz/shs to 8,000 oz/shs.

 

So I am now the MOST BEARISH that I have been in some time in this AP1-BBH portfolio.

Thus, I have an interest in this Ratio.

 

UPDATE:

GLD : $169.82 + $0.19 / + 0.11% (hi: $170.80)

SLV : $ 31.65 - $0.208 / - 0.65% (hi: $32.39)

Ratio 5.366 (5.273 on highs, was recently 5.34)

 

Is SLV "abandoning" GLD at its highs... again ? / update : from-Mid-2010

 

slvlog.png

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Bubb

 

I admire and respect you but why do you persist in coming onto this thread and gloating?

 

Very few of us on this thread have the time or the inclination to do what you do for your living - that's the point of a buy and hold strategy.

 

Will you be happy to see us all on the trading thread if you take a big hit one day, chortling about your losses?

 

I really worry that the casualt investor new to this game will be deterred from taking an initial position because of all the noise.

 

Please can you keep the trading banter to the trading thread.

 

Bos.

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I am long gold now, and have been throughout the rally - But I adjust the size of my position up and down to take advantage of buying and selling windows.

 

The BIG DIFFERENCE between my approach and some of the Gold Bugs here is that I take nothing for granted* - We can be certain that the Top we have seen is not an important one, because: "Anything can happen."

 

 

THE GUYS WHO NEED DISS-ing

 

The guys who need active shows of disrespect are not people like you and me, who trade around a Core long position**. Nor are they individual traders here who may have stayed long gold and silver with the hopes of protecting their wealth. The real villains are thos who are out ramping gold, and spreading misinformation and false hopes. I am thinking of:

 

 

*You "take nothing for granted" except that the paper merry-go-round does not stop, and your brokerage survives, and pays you.

**It's a "Core long position" if you can get your hands on it after a financial meltdown. Nothing less is "long gold".

 

You see, Bubb, this is the difference. Gold is not a promise from TDWaterhouse or Saxobank etc.

Trade if you want to, fine. But for sure don't think that trade will be worth anything if gold really does need to be used as an insurance. Ask Gerald Celente about his paper gold.

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Bubb

 

I admire and respect you but why do you persist in coming onto this thread and gloating?

 

Very few of us on this thread have the time or the inclination to do what you do for your living - that's the point of a buy and hold strategy.

 

Will you be happy to see us all on the trading thread if you take a big hit one day, chortling about your losses?

 

I really worry that the casualt investor new to this game will be deterred from taking an initial position because of all the noise.

 

Please can you keep the trading banter to the trading thread.

 

Bos.

I am not gloating !

Have you failed to read my post carefully?

 

I am against :

+ Complacency (and many here still have that !)

+ Ramping Gold at high prices

+ The inability of some to understand some simple options hedging strategies.

 

I think it is time people here move on to a more sophisticated view of the Gold market, and showed that they are less enthralled by a simple-minded Buy and Hold strategy. There's a chance that B&H may fail people in a major way! I saw that happen back in the 1980's after the price spike up in 1980, and I am doing my best here to get people to learn from history, and not repeat the same mistake.

 

Is this so hard to understand?

 

The BBH thread is a testimony to flexibility, so I hope by now people will see there's some wisdom in that approach.

 

What I am hoping for in posting this is to get some to realise that there are selling opportunities that should not be missed (with at least a part of your holdings.) Perhaps one or two could post here that they have learned something from this big decline and will be less tolerant of the bullish nonsense, and more aware of how dangerous it is in the next spike up when they see it in the Gold, Silver, or some other market.

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... Ask Gerald Celente about his paper gold.

Okay.

And ask Bob Chapman about his $18 average price silver !

We have enough history now that we can see how the Hold only strategy works:

(Posted 04 May 2011 - 08:00 AM / DrB's Diary)

The Bob Chapman / Perma-bull WATCH, No.1

bob-chapman-of-the-international-forecaster.jpg

 

I like the guy's thinking often, but I am going to pick on him, because I find he and Chris Walzek just a little "too sure of themselves", and I think they are going to "lead their listeners down the garden path" once again - as they did in 2008.

 

So here goes...

Bob Chapman says: "Buy Silver, and Keep buying... I am long at an average of $18."

 

Let's see how good this advice is. I warned people we might see a top at about $50, and identified selling or swapping windows at about $48. Let's see how that compares with the perma-bull strategy.

 

At an $18 Cost, Bob had a $30 profit at $48...

At Tuesday's low near $40:

His $30 profit, was down to $22 - That's a 26.7% drop !

 

Let's monitor this, as we go. I think silver is headed lower, and you will get a chance soon to buy at $35, perhaps lower. If you want to beat the Perma-Bull, then you would take the $30 profit - on 10,000 ounces, that's $300,000 - an buy back those 10,000 ounces at $35. You would be then locking in a better case situation.

 

You would have received $480,000 when you sold out at the top, and it would cost you $350,000 to re-enter. The $130,000 you have left would be pure and protected profit, which you could then use to buy silver, if it fell even further - beating the Perma-bull strategy by a country mile.

 

His "$18 Average price" is probably now a $25 average price silver by now, if he kept adding along the way.

 

Celente has a decent chance of getting most of his money back, after a historically strange financial disaster.

 

Those who bought Silver at $50, held for a while, and then got stopped out at $40, $35, or maybe $30 may not see their money again. Even if they bought without leverage, they missed a wonderful selling opportunity, that the Silver rampers on shows like Goldseek dismissed, while several folks (not just me) were sounding warnings here.

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I do appreciate Bubb's posts but apart from very few voices I haven't seen any important investor shorting gold. A lot of respectable and successful investors are long on gold like many of us are.

 

I will of course sell if I see a long lasting positive trend appearing in the economic front.

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I do appreciate Bubb's posts but apart from very few voices I haven't seen any important investor shorting gold. A lot of respectable and successful investors are long on gold like many of us are.

 

I will of course sell if I see a long lasting positive trend appearing in the economic front.

G.

I am not short Gold either. I am still net long, with some hedges in place.

Sometimes I wish I had gone flat or net short, but I haven't so far, since the drops (so far) seem to be of short duration.

 

But I do think that a big slide in Gold remains possible - if banks stop lending to each other and pull credit from their customers as they did in 2008.

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I am long gold now, and have been throughout the rally - But I adjust the size of my position up and down to take advantage of buying and selling windows.

 

The BIG DIFFERENCE between my approach and some of the Gold Bugs here is that I take nothing for granted - We can be certain that the Top we have seen is not an important one, because: "Anything can happen."

 

What is ominous now for some of the Bulls is that Open Interest in Gold and Silver continues to shrink, as people DESERT the Gold trade. That's not bullish (yet). The holdings wil need to stabilise before we have a good low.

 

I may buy this DIP in Silver, but I can do so because I took money off the table at higher prices.

 

I am living and Gold-investing on my wits here. I don't have a nice fat salary replenishing my investing capital, which is another important difference from some others here. I am "forced" by that lack of incoming cash flow to take some profits, so I have money to invest at lower profits. If you are lucky enough to have a job that puts investible capital into your bank account, then be grateful you do not need to live on the sharp end. But I suggest you resist the urge to criticise those that do live that way (successfully) and are willing to share their thoughts here, without "something to sell you", or a vested interest in higher gold prices.

 

 

I don't speak much these days.

 

In the past I've traded and faded a few bubbles and busts. Most went well, but some of the VIX extremes / money put/call open interest ratios we've seen in recent years defied taming even under my ultra-flexible stance. Ultimately, as a small investor, in those circumstances, commission eats you alive.

 

So the allure of buy and hold is something I can understand.

 

But I realise also that getting used to "what works" is the ultimate trap. For frequently reminding us of our potential complacency, we should be thankful of the Dr's input, and be grateful he can't be banned from this or any other thread on his site.

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But I do think that a big slide in Gold remains possible - if banks stop lending to each other and pull credit from their customers as they did in 2008.

 

But the policy response can only be one thing, no?

 

An therein lies my cause for concern: Gold for collapse! Gold for bailout! Gold for all seasons! So why are we off the highs? Why has gold started to mirror equity market moves on a short to medium term basis? Recoveries must mean higher rates; hardly bullish for gold, unless inflation outpaces nominal rates in recovery: Gold for recovery!

 

Maybe it is all margin call related? But in the back of my head all I keep hearing is that old chestnut : "When a market fails to rise on good news, it's time to sell."

 

In recent times much of the financial blogoshpere has been given over to the inflation / deflation (and biflation) debate. But now, for gold, it seems to me an new debate is emerging: that of risk-on, risk-off. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, should be part of the risk-off long trade. However, for the past ~3 months, thanks to its inverse dollar relationship, gold has been copying the path of risk-on long assets.

 

So what can make a risk-off asset a risk-on asset? My feeling: price. And that brings me back to that old chestnut.

 

Anybody else worried about these aspects?

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So the allure of buy and hold is something I can understand.

 

But I realise also that getting used to "what works" is the ultimate trap. For frequently reminding us of our potential complacency, we should be thankful of the Dr's input, and be grateful he can't be banned from this or any other thread on his site.

Thanks for those kind words, Sledgehead - And it is great to see you posting again here !

(Where have you been? Do you still read HPC and post there?)

 

It is unfortunate that some folks seem to take offense at my warnings - They are well-meant,

and I know from my own trading that "complacency is an enemy of success in trading & investing."

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But the policy response can only be one thing, no?

 

An therein lies my cause for concern: Gold for collapse! Gold for bailout! Gold for all seasons! So why are we off the highs? Why has gold started to mirror equity market moves on a short to medium term basis? Recoveries must mean higher rates; hardly bullish for gold, unless inflation outpaces nominal rates in recovery: Gold for recovery!

 

Maybe it is all margin call related? But in the back of my head all I keep hearing is that old chestnut : "When a market fails to rise on good news, it's time to sell."

 

In recent times much of the financial blogoshpere has been given over to the inflation / deflation (and biflation) debate. But now, for gold, it seems to me an new debate is emerging: that of risk-on, risk-off. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, should be part of the risk-off long trade. However, for the past ~3 months, thanks to its inverse dollar relationship, gold has been copying the path of risk-on long assets.

 

So what can make a risk-off asset a risk-on asset? My feeling: price. And that brings me back to that old chestnut.

 

Anybody else worried about these aspects?

 

Very interesting post - thanks for sharing your thoughts.

 

Is this happening because of the separation of the Paper gold from the Physical gold?

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It is unfortunate that some folks seem to take offense at my warnings - They are well-meant,

and I know from my own trading that "complacency is an enemy of success in trading & investing."

 

DrB I think that's more a matter of form than anything else, if people take offense.

 

You, in some instances, have "rubbed salt in the wounds" of those applying B&H strictly (i'm thinking of the temporary renaming for the beating B&H thread...). Of course some people would feel hurt by that, don't you think it would make sense?

 

Some in that forum have been B&Hing for so long they can afford quite a massive slump of the price of Au and Ag. Even if it fell down to 25%, I'm sure the long term'ers around here would still come out with a decent profit or at least break even. Or course, for them, the "safety level" is beyond high and do not (want to, or certainly need to) comprehend what you're on about, especially as you're using financial tools that are deemed to be the source of our current woes.

 

So there's this disconnect between them and you. That causes friction...

 

And there's "us others" (that would be me and others) who only have had the opportunity to realise the value of holding Au and Ag in those uncertain times. Thanks to you, we realise the risk of doing so as we will be very strongly affected by violent downwards moves, and I, for one, am currently thinking of implementing "mitigation" strategies to limit my exposure to wild swings.

 

But ultimately, I think we all share the same vision; even though our views differ on the implementation, we should just let these threads resume their "normal activities" for our collective sake (and maybe think about each other's sensitivities??)

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DrB I think that's more a matter of form than anything else, if people take offense.

 

You, in some instances, have "rubbed salt in the wounds" of those applying B&H strictly (i'm thinking of the temporary renaming for the beating B&H thread...). Of course some people would feel hurt by that, don't you think it would make sense?

How do you "fight complacency", without making some clear remarks?

I am willing to risk hurting people's feelings for the sake of an honest appraisal of the B&H technique.

 

Some in that forum have been B&Hing for so long they can afford quite a massive slump of the price of Au and Ag. Even if it fell down to 25%, I'm sure the long term'ers around here would still come out with a decent profit or at least break even. Or course, for them, the "safety level" is beyond high and do not (want to, or certainly need to) comprehend what you're on about, especially as you're using financial tools that are deemed to be the source of our current woes.

25%? I am not sure what you mean? (The drop on GLD, I suppose)

For SLV, at $30, the drop from $50 is 40%. At $25, it would be half.

That's not a trivial opportunity loss.

 

Also, some like Bob Chapman may have GIVEN UP ALL THEIR SILVER PROFITS, it the price falls as low as $18-25. Frankly, that is not a great move, and I hope you can see why.

 

What's the point in seeing a price double, and then watching it fall back and wipe out ALL of one's gains? That is not something to be complacent about, and would suggest that there are better ways of managing ones wealth.

 

People need to be more honest with themselves, more disciplined, and maybe willing to learn some new techniques.

 

You can go to other sites where they will tell you how to stay happy with huge opportunity losses like that. But I put myself in the place of others, and reckon that GEI offers something different: Consistent honesty and integrity : To help others learn the techniques which will help them master the challenges of managing wealth and thriving in what JHK calls a "Long eMergency."

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......I am living and Gold-investing on my wits here. I don't have a nice fat salary replenishing my investing capital, which is another important difference from some others here. I am "forced" by that lack of incoming cash flow to take some profits, so I have money to invest at lower profits. If you are lucky enough to have a job that puts investible capital into your bank account, then be grateful you do not need to live on the sharp end. But I suggest you resist the urge to criticise those that do live that way (successfully) and are willing to share their thoughts here, without "something to sell you", or a vested interest in higher gold prices.

....

Bubb, I really think you need to relax a little. Most here do not criticize your lifestyle... you are free to live how you want to. Those that have criticized your making a living as a trader are a small and vocal minority, and seem to have moved on from this thread of late. No doubt they will be back and very vocal when the market once again moves again in their favor. Then the "boot will be on the other foot once again". Why not rise above the silly polarization created by the "100% certain 100% in" minority? Most buy and holders of gold do not belong to that camp... and your criticism of B&H fails to draw the distinction. Your dire warnings against B&H have been noted, but are starting to sound shrill on this thread, which has a reasonable bias towards B&H. Note, I've often criticized the "100% certain 100% in" minority myself, but have never confused that with B&H. On the contrary, I've always advocated a reasonable purchase of gold with a reasonable portion of your funds. As you well know, I've personally hedged this by taking a different approach with the more volatile silver. The majority of other B&H'ers no doubt hedge and diversify in ways that suit them.

 

Why not live and let live in regard to B&H? Why confuse that with the critical minority that have obviously annoyed you?

 

There are going to be as many different strategies as there as different kinds of people. No one way is right... more like it's this dogmatic attitude that is wrong.

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Interesting ...

 

The Gold "Rehypothecation" Unwind Begins: HSBC Sues MF Global Over Disputed Ownership Of Physical Gold

 

Essentially, this is at the heart of the whole commingling situation: was MF Global using rehypothecated client gold to satisfy liabilities?

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rehypotecation-unwind-begins-hsbc-sues-mf-global-over-disputed-ownership-physical-gold

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My 2p:

 

Gold for me is saving in real money. I'm only trying to preserve the real purchasing power of my savings. Any gain over and above the real rate of inflation is a bonus! I do not have the time to read up on or dedicate part of my free time to attempt to trade any of my pot.

 

No doubt if you know what you are doing and have the time then the trading approach Dr Bubb takes can give better 'paper' gains in the short term. But there is as much chance of an amatuer like me losing money. I also agree with those who have pointed out that the trading approach is great until the system breaks then all your gains plus initial investment are gone. The odds of this happening at any time are in my opinion are quite high and I'm not comfortable risking it.

 

I have read enough to convince myself that the long term buy & hold physical is as good a strategy as any for wealth preservation. Just take a look at the 6 month, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr kitco charts. They dont lie.

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... Your dire warnings against B&H have been noted, but are starting to sound shrill on this thread, which has a reasonable bias towards B&H[/b]. Note, I've often criticized the "100% certain 100% in" minority myself, but have never confused that with B&H. On the contrary, I've always advocated a reasonable purchase of gold with a reasonable portion of your funds. As you well know, I've personally hedged this by taking a different approach with the more volatile silver. The majority of other B&H'ers no doubt hedge and diversify in ways that suit them.

 

Why not live and let live in regard to B&H? Why confuse that with the critical minority that have obviously annoyed you?

 

There are going to be as many different strategies as there as different kinds of people. No one way is right... more like it's this dogmatic attitude that is wrong.

My comments are no more "shrill" than yours are.

I am pointing out the dangers of complacency - what's wrong with that?

 

The main guys who I am criticizing are the loud Gold Rampers (and those who worship them) and, in a much less intense way, those who say "don't worry, precious metals are in a long term bull market so you need not think about price risk". The first crowd are my main target, as you can see here:

 

THE GUYS WHO REALLY NEED DISS-ing

 

The guys who need active shows of disrespect are NOT people like you and me, who trade around a Core long position. NOR are they individual traders here who may have stayed long gold and silver with the hopes of protecting their wealth. The real villains are those who are out ramping gold, and spreading misinformation and false hopes, especially after a long upwards run. I am thinking of:

 

+ Blackrock : which was telling the public to buy gold, even as they were unloading,

 

+ Pundits like Bob Chapman, who said everyone should hold their silver as it approached a key resistance level at $50 in a parabolic move. Bob has been around a long time and should know better! He said his average cost was $18 per ounce, if he has bought any silver since then, his average may be somewhere near $25. If Silver takes another leg down, he may be underwater on his entire position (!) Do you want to take advice from a guy who thinks and talks like that ??

 

+ Gold enthusiasts like Robert Ian, who famously said: "Never ever ever sell your gold (or silver!)" within pennies of the top.

 

Next time we see blather from people like that in an overheated market, I hope I am not one of a tiny handful here, sounding warning and saying "Beware of rampers!"

 

As for the second group : The complacency purveyors, saying "Don't Worry" - Do they need to be criticised at all?

 

Perhaps not. (And they may represent a majority posting recently on this thread. To go on with this thought, I am risking pissing off at least a few of our valued posters here.)

 

GLD WEEKLY ... update : SLV-weekly

goldwk.png

 

Right now, I am expecting something like a repeat of Gold's 2006 pattern

 

=== (IF YOU REALLY ARE COMFORTABLE if Gold falls to $1400, $1200, or $1000 - Please skip what follows) ===

 

But I do wonder, at what point would people start saying to themselves:

Ah oh! Gold has dropped much further than I thought it would, I really wish I had hedged some of (more of?) my price risk. For me, that price level is probably about $1500 in Gold (GLD-$150 on the chart above) and about $25 in Silver, since those are the levels just below where I would have added aggressively to my longs. At levels below that, I would be nursing losses that I could have prevented.

 

Unlike some others here, I actively think about the possibility that "gold will fall further than most people think", and I want to manage my exposure to extreme moves up or down, and think that this is a fair topic for discussion here. It is not something to just be ignored, while people simply hope it will never happen. Or worse yet say: "I am not worried. If prices fall there, I will just buy more."

 

Maybe some will do that (comfortably buy more.) But long experience has taught me that extreme moves are thought of that way until they actually happen. And then when they do come, people instead are filled with fear, and rarely have the courage to pull the trigger. Didn't that happen with many here in 2008? And we could see a bigger percentage move on this drop than we saw back in 2008. I will say one more time : "Anything can happen."

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...there is as much chance of an amatuer like me losing money. I also agree with those who have pointed out that the trading approach is great until the system breaks then all your gains plus initial investment are gone. The odds of this happening at any time are in my opinion are quite high and I'm not comfortable risking it.

 

I have read enough to convince myself that the long term buy & hold physical is as good a strategy as any for wealth preservation. Just take a look at the 6 month, 1yr, 5yr, 10yr kitco charts. They dont lie.

You could study more perhaps, to learn how to hedge in a way that is comfortable for you. Remember, at some point in the future, those 1yr, 5yr, 10yr kitco charts will all show broken trendlines. And if you wait for the break of trend, it may be too late to exit gracefully.

 

BTW This comment:

"trading approach is great until the system breaks then all your gains plus initial investment are gone"

I regard this objection as a red herring.

 

Have you looked at my BBH portfolio? I am less exposed to a "breakdown in the trading system" than you may think.

 

Much of my funds are safely parked in "Core" Silver holdings, and most of that core is Physical silver. When it reaches the point where I have 10,000 oz of physical silver (ie the same as the passive B&H fund holds), then I will be PERMANENTLY better off than B&H. The cash that I will be using for trading, will just be the profit. (I could put myself into that type of "bulletproof" situation at any time, but am now awaiting a further dip in Silver prices.)

 

Also, you can hedge differently than how I do it. I have a friend in HK here who runs a precious metals oriented hedge fund. He parks a good chunk of his fund into silver and gold, and then hedges the price risk using Puts. If the "trading system" blows up, he will have all of his Gold and Silver. He is only risking the money that he has in the puts.

 

"Different strokes for different folks", even when it comes to hedging.

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Well if you are NOT actually holding the precious in your hot little hands your gold could be long gone! Gold may plummet now that confidence is being ripped out. Although you have to give credit where credit is due the goldbugs have been saying you gotta hold the physical in your hot little hands.

 

From GoldSilver.com - "Currently, there is only enough investment-grade gold available on Earth for every living person to have 1/3rd of an ounce." and ".. there is only enough investment-grade silver on Earth for every person to have 1/14th of an ounce."

 

Anyone for cash?

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Those who bought Silver at $50, held for a while, and then got stopped out at $40, $35, or maybe $30 may not see their money again.

Getting "stopped out" is trader think. As a B&H, I have never been stopped out, because there is no stop first place. I watch fundamentals to decide whether I buy or sell. And fundamentals change extremely slowly it seems.

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