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I am trying a new title: GOLD - "the long term money"

 

Perhaps that will attract more agreement than a mention of B&H

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Yee Gads !

You are putting words in my mouth.

 

A core mission of GEI (who else can decide this?), is to help traders improve their trading capabilities. I do not want to scare off good traders from joining us here by encouraging the assumption that Buy&Hold is the only way.

 

There are people who make their living off trading, and those are the ones that I would especially like to join us. So buying normally requires selling first. If you have a nice healthy income, with surplus cash, then you are lucky. Don't be arrogant enough to assume that everyone else "should be the same."

 

GEI is big enough to cater to both, I reckon.

 

"You and Pixel need to call a truce before the forum degenerates completely. "

? Huh ?

Is it possible you have forgotten who founded this website? As I said, I would like Pixel to stay, since I think his overall contribution here is clearly positive. But he needs to stop abusing traders. Calling them all F**ckers is hardly the sort of name-calling I can tolerate.

== ==

 

Good sensible post, Concrete Jungle

 

 

Fair enough Bubb - your house, your rules. That image is pretty popular around the web so still a harsh ban in my view. And apologies - it's not for me to tell you how to popularise your forum. In any case, I'm glad some of us questioned the wisdom that trading options is the best way for people to better and protect themselves. I hope some good will come of it all.

 

When I heard a veteran like Dan Norcini talking about how the most hardened traders are getting shredded by volatility and market interventions, I had to wonder how wise it was for non-professionals to be stepping into the breach at this point. You were encouraging it in the most unqualified and blasé fashion. I quite like the idea of trading as a potential sideline - I am a former gambler after all. But I freely admit I would be "scared money" in this climate so I steer clear.

 

From a personal perspective, I made the prediction that brokerages may go bankrupt and options accounts could just disappear, with the implication being that corrupt practices are being used to mask insolvency. When this exact scenario came to pass just a few weeks later with MF Global, I was surprised at how you downplayed the situation.

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Fair enough Bubb - your house, your rules. That image is pretty popular around the web so still a harsh ban in my view. And apologies - it's not for me to tell you how to popularise your forum. In any case, I'm glad some of us questioned the wisdom that trading option

s is the best way for people to better and protect themselves. I hope some good will come of it all.

 

Yeah, but put it into context.

The traders on GEI do not deserve that abuse - I have never called BAHAIs here F**ckers, though they do sometimes behave badly IMHO. (The BAHAIs went mad when I posted a cartoon about "Clawing the sky," and gave me much abuse. I never got an apology when the subsequent big drop came.) That cartoon was not as recklessly offensive as calling the founder of this FREE site: a F**cker for being a Trader.

 

When I heard a veteran like Dan Norcini talking about how the most hardened traders are getting shredded by volatility and market interventions, I had to wonder how wise it was for non-professionals to be stepping into the breach at this point. You were encouraging it in the most unqualified and blasé fashion. I quite like the idea of trading as a potential sideline - I am a former gambler after all. But I freely admit I would be "scared money" in this climate so I steer clear.

I am hardly "getting shreaded", and if anything: I am seeing more opportunities for the sort of disciplined Speculations that I undertake here. I am amazed that so few people have tried to really understand what I am doing. It really is not very complicated, and requires nothing more than some basic options knowledge, and a little chart reading. The discipline is the key thing: Like a monkey, don't take your hand off one branch until you are clinging to another.

 

To translate:

You can sell Silver or SLV when it looks toppy and weak, but you'd better soon replace it with something giving you similar upside, if you want to be sure you will not lose out on big price gains in Silver and Gold.

 

Have you ever had Norcini tell you: "There are some disciplined traders out there who are massively outperforming Buy&Hold, but they are using some (simple) options strategies that I think you are too thick to understand." That's an established fact! Why doesn't he tell people? Why don't you and Pixel tell people?

 

From a personal perspective, I made the prediction that brokerages may go bankrupt and options accounts could just disappear, with the implication being that corrupt practices are being used to mask insolvency. When this exact scenario came to pass just a few weeks later with MF Global, I was surprised at how you downplayed the situation.

Okay. It happened once, and it has happened before, over the years - that Rogue firms commit fraud and bring their firms down. That is why there's an SIPC covering accounts up to $500,000 and the CME will move quickly, as it has done - to transfer account to other firms. None of the postings that I saw here, apart from my own, spoke about these important mechanisms that were in place to make the most of a bad situation, and help to minimizse potential losses.

 

BTW: Anyone who replicated my Beating B&H strategies would have been totally unscathed, since everything I do is in a Stock account, rather than a Futures account. MFG clients were nearly all on the futures side, from my understanding.

 

Also: There are (BIG) risks in holding physical silver too, which I NEVER hear about from the BAHAI crowd. Maybe I should be like Pixel, and make half of my postings on GEI about how the BAHAIs are taking risks that they are not discussing, and call them F**ckers for doing that. NO. I will not say that, because I do not believe it. There's plenty of room on GEI for people with different approaches, so long as there is mutual respect.

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Can we remove the thread's subtitle again, in order to keep it free of any spin?

For you, I will -

But some don't like shorter term "trading-related" comments here.

And if we get more good traders joining GEI, I dont want them abused for posting here,

so I will ask you to help discipline those so inclined, as I have had to do today.

 

Agreed?

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For my own sanity I need to stay clear of your & Pixel's eternal squabble.

Maybe it should have a subtitle?

"General investing, valuation models, charts & related news"

If he posts similar, he will be suspended for longer.

There will be no "squabble" or ongoing abuse of traders here.

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I think what would really help this forum would be for every thread to be overrun by petty arguments about trading vs buy and hold. What is the point of the other threads if the noise can't be contained over there? I get the principle of trading gold. I just don't care. I want to talk about long term gold and how world events are shaping up.

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I think what would really help this forum would be for every thread to be overrun by petty arguments about trading vs buy and hold. What is the point of the other threads if the noise can't be contained over there? I get the principle of trading gold. I just don't care. I want to talk about long term gold and how world events are shaping up.

I totally agree.

 

And I am considering a blanket one week or one month suspension for anyone who abuses traders here until I stamp out this nonsense - see my "Important Message" on the DrB's Diary thread.

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I have a feeling like next week we'll go through $1,800 and never ever look back again. :)

It won't happen unless Open Interest starts rising.

 

There are many signs of weakness in Gold and Silver prices, but "anything can happen" of course. And I am long too, albeit with some hedges in place.

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Smart and lucky.

I have met two people who know him, and they both said he was a mediocre Fund manager,

who got lucky borrowing someone else's idea and having Goldman's help.

 

If the Fund goes down, he and the managers own about half the shares, so they can keep some of the GLD shares - but probably not all. Watch for some selling news soon - it may be happening today.

 

 

 

Incredible! Simply incredible.

 

Paulson who made (let me think) 6 BILLION Dollars during the property crash has proved that he is not only better than 99% of traders, but had the conviction to follow up his instinct with a lot of money. He could have lost. But could have, would have, should have have no place in here and now world of trading isn't it bubb? Or perhaps you are not that magnanimous as I thought you are. A bit of humility does go a long long way.

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And I am considering a blanket one week or one month suspension for anyone who abuses traders here until I stamp out this nonsense - see my "Important Message" on the DrB's Diary thread.

Wasn't it supposed to be a good solution that there is not only your own diary (and anyone else's who wishes to), but also the "beat B&H" (does it really work, BTW? :) )? People who write too much about trading in the general GOLD thread then simply need to be aware that they get a little more heat for this. They should automatically wash up in more trading oriented threads.

 

I tend to simply ignore the trader threads and that spares me a lot of headaches I suppose. I think it is very dangerous in these time to throw away physical gold, but every opinion needs its place and I am not the forum owner. So, I just try to make my POV clear every now and then.

 

Given that Pixel has his own forum now, he should possibly let the traders be what they are. After all, he might be able to even get some "Schadenfreude" out of this once it is all said & done. :o

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Incredible! Simply incredible.

 

Paulson who made (let me think) 6 BILLION Dollars during the property crash has proved that he is not only better than 99% of traders, but had the conviction to follow up his instinct with a lot of money. He could have lost. But could have, would have, should have have no place in here and now world of trading isn't it bubb? Or perhaps you are not that magnanimous as I thought you are. A bit of humility does go a long long way.

Dont be silly.

 

Many had the same idea. Peter Schiff had it, and started a small fund that did well. I had it too (just look back at my many posting on HPC about how overvalued those securities were.) Many others, including some on GEI who post little but who I have met, did rather well shorting banks and mortgage lenders in the same period.

 

Paulsen was lucky because he had a fund already in place, and had big help from Goldman's in arranging the trades so that he could go short on such a huge scale. That's how he made billions, not because he spotted an opportunity that no one else saw.

 

I suggest you read the book from Michael Lewis called The Big Short, and you will get a better idea of how that scale was created.

 

Paulsen was down almost 50% on his fund at one stage this year. So his luck may be running out.

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Given that Pixel has his own forum now, he should possibly let the traders be what they are. After all, he might be able to even get some "Schadenfreude" out of this once it is all said & done. :o

Like saying something like: Buy & Hold "Beat the Crap" out of The Traders at GEI?

 

Do you think he might do that (haha)

 

Does my strategy work?

Have a look for yourself: http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

About $175,000 / 50% ahead of B&H is not too bad. Also with much less "risk"*

 

*(By which I mean volatility of returns)

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An excellent interview! (thnx for posting it)

 

Earlier this year (when Gold stocks were higher) he said:

"We've had a big long party. Maybe we should chill it a little bit."

Speaking about mining stocks, especially Juniors.

 

"There's a good chance (now) that we will have a real boom."

 

But "mining stocks can be a lousy investment." And you have to be selective.

 

They make some comments on banks relying "too much on trading activities", which a agree with.

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GDX and GDXJ are a good place to start re. mining stocks (for those who don't have time/inclination to stock-pick).

 

Just make sure you have a core position of physical bullion first - I wouldn't want to put too much money/faith in GDX/GDXJ if/when the crunch comes. It's a calculated gamble, as ever.

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Surprise. Surprise ??

 

Did anyone else laugh when they saw this report?

 

 

The case for Gold is bullish." - says Bloomberg,

and as evidence they mention that "smart stock pickers" like John Paulsen have a Big Position.

 

What Idiocy ! Who do they speak such crap too ???

 

GOLD IS WEAK today, coming out of the Blue.

And the volume has been sluggish in recent days, despite a news environment that favors it.

 

Why?

I reckon their "smart investor" Paulsen may be selling, because he is getting hit with big

redemptions, and will need some cash to cover them. Does he have any choice but to sell GLD?

He will need to make an announcement regarding his fund within a few days.

 

LD - JOHN PAULSEN GETTING OUT

 

The filing has just been made, and was up-to-date as of 45 days ago.

 

Paulsen was the largest holder of GLD, and he has sold 1/3 of his position

 

(This was predicted here some time ago, and may have been behind one of those "big price drops" that we have seen.)

 

Will he sell more? Probably.

Will others follow his lead? Possibly. On the other hand, some may want to step in once it is confirmed he is out, since the "threat of Paulsen selling" will be removed.

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Surprise. Surprise ??

 

 

 

LD - JOHN PAULSEN GETTING OUT

 

The filing has just been made, and was up-to-date as of 45 days ago.

 

Paulsen was the largest holder of GLD, and he has sold 1/3 of his position

 

(This was predicted here some time ago, and may have been behind one of those "big price drops" that we have seen.)

 

Will he sell more? Probably.

Will others follow his lead? Possibly. On the other hand, some may want to step in once it is confirmed he is out, since the "threat of Paulsen selling" will be removed.

 

Perhaps this is for the Fringe section, but it's crossed my mind that the Fed/Treasury may have said to Paulsen "you can keep your ill-gotten gains from the mortgage crisis if you help us out with a little problem, otherwise it's Guantanamo for you my friend".

 

His performance this year has been beyond shocking for an elite hedge fund manager and the timing of these sales is Gordon Brown-esque, just as Europe is falling to pieces.

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