GOLD

[drbubb]

Here's the same chart, updated;

Looks like a "throw-over."

After a test of the highs, these often signal a big reversal ahead

[drbubb]

Have to say, you're continuing to compare apples and oranges here. Trading gold and investing in gold [or disinvesting] are two very distinct activities. It's not a competition. Don't let the few anti-trading purists color your view of "B&H". Live and let live.

You are on potentially dangerous ground here.

 

You are taking for granted that New Higher Highs on Gold are ahead, and so it is safe to be an "investor" rather than a "Trader." I believe so too, but I take NOTHING for granted - long experience has taught me so.

 

For this reason, I am happy to replace some of my longs with: Cash-plus-in-the-money-Calls.

 

This is not because I am a "Trader", but rather because I want some protection from Price Risk at such times. In fact, this policy allows me to stay with the long term trend, and remain safe, if it surprises me and breaks down.

 

Instead of knocking it, try understanding the strategy. It may save your wealth someday.

[PricedOutNative]

Hang on…..

 

I’ve just visited a couple of websites that sell gold coins and there seems to be no problem buying…???

I’d have thought that considering we are constantly being told by the media that we are ‘standing on the precipice’ etc… that there would be a massive shortage of physical gold and you’d have to sign up on waiting lists etc… Gold is being talked about more now than at any time I can remember but still there seems to be an abundant supply…

[G0ldfinger]

Gold is being talked about more now than at any time I can remember but still there seems to be an abundant supply…

Many do the talk, that's right.

[50sQuiff]

Hang on…..

 

I’ve just visited a couple of websites that sell gold coins and there seems to be no problem buying…???

I’d have thought that considering we are constantly being told by the media that we are ‘standing on the precipice’ etc… that there would be a massive shortage of physical gold and you’d have to sign up on waiting lists etc… Gold is being talked about more now than at any time I can remember but still there seems to be an abundant supply…

 

I wonder if the Russian or Chinese central bank would agree with you? Shrimps like us can pick up our bullion for a while longer yet, but the giants of the world have to accumulate slowly or the price will run and gold will go into hiding.

[Concrete Jungle]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-mcWbntuqc

[romans holiday]

You are on potentially dangerous ground here.

?

How so? Surely you're not lumping me in with the "all in buy and hold 100% certain" crowd?? Me, a deflationist, a hedger.

 

You are taking for granted that New Higher Highs on Gold are ahead, and so it is safe to be an "investor" rather than a "Trader." I believe so too, but I take NOTHING for granted - long experience has taught me so.

 

For this reason, I am happy to replace some of my longs with: Cash-plus-in-the-money-Calls.

 

This is not because I am a "Trader", but rather because I want some protection from Price Risk at such times. In fact, this policy allows me to stay with the long term trend, and remain safe, if it surprises me and breaks down.

 

Instead of knocking it, try understanding the strategy. It may save your wealth someday

I'm not knocking anything. My point was that nobody should be knocking anyone. OK, so there are a few gold purists that do knock others.... who also tend to be in 100% because they are 100% certain. But these are only a small minority, and then why identify "B&H" with that minority?

 

Most "buy and holders" have a lesser percentage of their wealth in gold, even though that percentage might be well above the conventional 5-10%. These have done extremely well to have bought and held.... no denying that.

 

If you want to trade gold, fine. If you want to buy and hold, fine. If you want to buy and hold, hedge, and trade, fine also. I think it's only the "all in buy and hold" minority you have an argument with who also tend to be anti-trading.

 

Instead of knocking it, try understanding the strategy. It may save your wealth one day

My own strategy has suited me very well thankyou, having a few years back bought and held gold with 50% of my liquid worth. This is well hedged. I may even get a good trade in. So there are different ways to skin a cat. Also, there are more important things than wealth. Your strategy involves a large sacrifice of time to increase or maintain your wealth. Fine for you, but surely you recognize that yours is quite an exceptional activity and not for everyone. It might suit most to just buy a bit of gold and be done with it.

[drbubb]

?

How so? Surely you're not lumping me in with the "all in buy and hold 100% certain" crowd?? Me, a deflationist, a hedger.

 

 

I'm not knocking anything. My point was that nobody should be knocking anyone. OK, so there are a few gold purists that do knock others.... who also tend to be in 100% because they are 100% certain. But these are only a small minority, and then why identify "B&H" with that minority?

 

Most "buy and holders" have a lesser percentage of their wealth in gold, even though that percentage might be well above the conventional 5-10%. These have done extremely well to have bought and held.... no denying that.

 

If you want to trade gold, fine. If you want to buy and hold, fine. If you want to buy and hold, hedge, and trade, fine also. I think it's only the "all in buy and hold" minority you have an argument with who also tend to be anti-trading.

 

 

My own strategy has suited me very well thankyou, having a few years back bought and held gold with 50% of my liquid worth. This is well hedged. I may even get a good trade in. So there are different ways to skin a cat. Also, there are more important things than wealth. Your strategy involves a large sacrifice of time to increase or maintain your wealth. Fine for you, but surely you recognize that yours is quite an exceptional activity and not for everyone. It might suit most to just buy a bit of gold and be done with it.

Yeah.

I get your point.

But here's the logic that I think is dangerous:

 

"Gold is only going to rise in the long term. I am a long term INVESTOR in gold.

Therefore, I will be fine in the long term, no matter when I buy gold. And no matter what I pay."

 

I mostly agree that gold will rise from here. But it is dangerous thinking.

People who bought gold at $800 in 1980 could have said that too.

And they would have been "right" so far, but with a rather huge drawdown to $252 along the way.

 

It wasn't long ago that firms like Merrill Lynch were out pushing the idea that it was fine to INVEST in stocks for the long term, and that people could build a safe pension fund investing in blue chip stocks. That notion may have died in 2008.

[romans holiday]

Yeah.

I get your point.

But here's the logic that I think is dangerous:

 

"Gold is only going to rise in the long term. I am a long term INVESTOR in gold.

Therefore, I will be fine in the long term, no matter when I buy gold. And no matter what I pay."

Well, that's not my logic. Nor is it the logic of most "buy and holders". I think it may instead be the logic of the "all in buy and holders".... the 100% certain, and 100% in crowd. Don't you agree? And if so, why not use that distinguishing term..."all in" rather than simply paint all "buy and holders" with the same brush?

 

I mostly agree that gold will rise from here. But it is dangerous thinking.

People who bought gold at $800 in 1980 could have said that too.

And they would have been "right" so far, but with a rather huge drawdown to $252 along the way.

 

Yes, there are no certainties, which is why hedges are a good idea.

 

It wasn't long ago that firms like Merrill Lynch were out pushing the idea that it was fine to INVEST in stocks for the long term, and that people could build a safe pension fund investing in blue chip stocks. That notion may have died in 2008

Yes, which is why investors may increasingly sell assets and become increasingly liquid on the sidelines. Gold buying deflationists are open to considering gold as a form of liquidity as opposed to the conventional idea of it being just an investment. This would make the above irrelevant.

 

To repeat, why not use that distiguishing term..."all in" rather than simply paint all "buy and holders" with the same brush. It starts to look a bit silly when you criticize, without distinctions, those who have bought and held gold when obviously that has shown to be, on the face of it, a good option. I mean, you wouldn't want to discourage the average Joe from buying a bit of gold would you?

[drbubb]

ARE YOU A BAHAI ?

 

To repeat, why not use that distiguishing term..."all in" rather than simply paint all "buy and holders" with the same brush. It starts to look a bit silly when you criticize, without distinctions, those who have bought and held gold when obviously that has shown to be, on the face of it, a good option. I mean, you wouldn't want to discourage the average Joe from buying a bit of gold would you?

Well, I think we are in basic agreement.

 

My main point is:

+ Buy & Hold is (probably) Dead in the stock market

+ Buy & Hold is alive and well in the Gold market, because must who B&H think it is GUARANTEED that gold is going up in the long run.

 

My view is: that is very possible, even likely, but NOT guaranteed gold will go on rising for sometime more... for a long list of reasons.

 

If you wanted to call yourself a Buy-And-Hold-And-Hedge-Sometimes (BAHAHS) investor in Gold, I would agree that is a smarter way to play it, if you have some useful timing tools, than pure Buy-And-Hold-Only (BAHO)* which I reckon will someday "run off a cliff", but maybe not until Gold-$3000, Gold-$5000, or some higher figure.

 

 

BAHO's will go Boo-Hoo someday IMHO. Road Runners hedge and trade around a core Long position, but are not doctrinaire: "Mee-Beep !".

 

*alternatively: Buy-And-Hold-All-In (BAHAI), not to be confused with Bob Hoye ("Ba-Hoi" in chinese)

[romans holiday]

ARE YOU A BAHAI ?

 

 

Well, I think we are in basic agreement.

 

My main point is:

+ Buy & Hold is (probably) Dead in the stock market

+ Buy & Hold is alive and well in the Gold market, because must who B&H think it is GUARANTEED that gold is going up in the long run.

 

My view is: that is very possible, even likely, but NOT guaranteed gold will go on rising for sometime more... for a long list of reasons.

 

If you wanted to call yourself a Buy-And-Hold-And-Hedge-Sometimes (BAHAHS) investor in Gold, I would agree that is a smarter way to play it, if you have some useful timing tools, than pure Buy-And-Hold-Only (BAHO)* which I reckon will someday "run off a cliff", but maybe not until Gold-$3000, Gold-$5000, or some higher figure.

 

 

BAHO's will go Boo-Hoo someday IMHO. Road Runners hedge and trade around a core Long position, but are not doctrinaire: "Mee-Beep !".

 

*alternatively: Buy-And-Hold-All-In (BAHAI), not to be confused with Bob Hoye ("Ba-Hoi" in chinese)

Some good options to choose from there.

 

The best one has to be: "Buy-And-Hold-All-In (BAHAI), not to be confused with Bob Hoye ("Ba-Hoi" in chinese)".

 

... because you have here the "all in" element. Also, the bahai "faith" comes to mind. But then that has to be just a euphemism for another term, right?

[drbubb]

Some good options to choose from there.

The best one has to be: "Buy-And-Hold-All-In (BAHAI), not to be confused with Bob Hoye ("Ba-Hoi" in chinese)".

... because you have here the "all in" element. Also, the bahai "faith" comes to mind.

Yeah.

It takes FAITH to be a true BAHAI

 

....

"The Golden Path leads to Heaven."

 

"...the Bahá'í Faith is today among the fastest-growing of the world's religions.

With more than five million followers..."

/see: http://www.bahai.org/faq/facts/bahai_faith

[drbubb]

Did anyone else laugh when they saw this report?

"The case for Gold is bullish." - says Bloomberg,

and as evidence they mention that "smart stock pickers" like John Paulsen have a Big Position.

 

What Idiocy ! Who do they speak such crap too ???

 

GOLD IS WEAK today, coming out of the Blue.

And the volume has been sluggish in recent days, despite a news environment that favors it.

 

Why?

I reckon their "smart investor" Paulsen may be selling, because he is getting hit with big

redemptions, and will need some cash to cover them. Does he have any choice but to sell GLD?

He will need to make an announcement regarding his fund within a few days.

 

America's Employment plan - per JSmineset (right on, Jim !)

 

 

Unfortunately, there seem to be quite a few Warmongers running for high office

[G0ldfinger]

Did anyone else laugh when they saw this report?

Paulson is smart, and I am pretty sure he will keep his personal gold. As a fund manager, however, he is exposed to the will of traders and weak hands who (absurdly) want to throw their gold away every time the fiat money system is imploding a little more. Funny world.

 

The case for gold has never been more obviously bullish than now.

[drbubb]

Paulson is smart, and I am pretty sure he will keep his personal gold. As a fund manager, however, he is exposed to the will of traders and weak hands who (absurdly) want throw their gold away every time the fiat money system is imploding a little more. Funny world.

 

The case for gold has never been more obviously bullish than now.

Smart and lucky.

I have met two people who know him, and they both said he was a mediocre Fund manager,

who got lucky borrowing someone else's idea and having Goldman's help.

 

If the Fund goes down, he and the managers own about half the shares, so they can keep some of the GLD shares - but probably not all. Watch for some selling news soon - it may be happening today.

[romans holiday]

Did anyone else laugh when they saw this report?

 

 

The case for Gold is bullish." - says Bloomberg,

and as evidence they mention that "smart stock pickers" like John Paulsen have a Big Position.

 

What Idiocy ! Who do they speak such crap too ???

 

GOLD IS WEAK today, coming out of the Blue.

And the volume has been sluggish in recent days, despite a news environment that favors it.

 

Why?

I reckon their "smart investor" Paulsen may be selling, because he is getting hit with big

redemptions, and will need some cash to cover them. Does he have any choice but to sell GLD?

He will need to make an announcement regarding his fund within a few days.

 

Where are the distinctions? Sure, in the immediate short term gold could easily consolidate to its long term trend, which would be around 1650-1700. But that doesn't mean gold is "bearish", it means gold is indeed bullish. Keep in mind that this thread is mainly for the "buy and hold" type [or those thinking of buying] not the short term trader, and it seems very odd to state that gold is not bullish. Of course it wouldn't be odd if that was stated on a trading thread.

[drbubb]

...Keep in mind that this thread is mainly for the "buy and hold" type [or those thinking of buying] not the short term trader,

and it seems very odd to state that gold is not bullish. Of course it wouldn't be odd if that was stated on a trading thread.

Okay.

I changed the title to :

 

"GOLD - with a Buy & Hold emphasis"

 

Any objections?

What should the subtitle be? (if anything)

"Occasional Trading ideas welcome" ?

"Identifying top-up points" ?

"Keeping the confidence, Staying the course" ?

 

This old chart from page 1, is still relevant, isn't it:

 

Welcome GF

Can I start off the discussion by asking you whether you have any other predictions for the price of gold.

IMO the best two so far that I have read are from Jim Sinclair and Krassimir Petrov.

Both of which I put on this chart:

 

 

I thought this morning, it would be nice to add more predictions to it, and see how they all compare.

 

I feel like the BAHAIs and BAHAHs might both be happier now that I have re-titled the other thread:

 

"Beating Buy&Hold - thru Disciplined Speculation"

 

I think everyone here should be statisfied with that Title, and not feel like they have to Jump in every time I post something to try and tell people that "Buy and Hold could be better for the average person, who may not be a discipline speculator."

[chazza]

Okay.

I changed the title to :

 

"GOLD - with a Buy & Hold emphasis"

 

Any objections?

What should the subtitle be? (if anything)

"Occasional Trading ideas welcome" ?

"Identifying top-up points" ?

"Keeping the confidence, Staying the course" ?

 

This old chart from page 1, is still relevant, isn't it:

 

 

 

I feel like the BAHAIs and BAHAHs might both be happier now that I have re-titled the other thread:

 

"Beating Buy&Hold - thru Disciplined Speculation"

 

I think everyone here should be statisfied with that Title, and not feel like they have to Jump in every time I post something to try and tell people that "Buy and Hold could be better for the average person, who may not be a discipline speculator."

 

 

i think "Gold" was the best title

[drbubb]

i think "Gold" was the best title

Ah yeah,

But some here object to negative comments warning about a short term dip.

 

There have been many such moments, and they help create buying opportunities.

But some Gold purists worry that such comments will "scare people off the bandwagon."

[Pixel8r]

Ah yeah,

But some here object to negative comments warning about a short term dip.

 

There have been many such moments, and they help create buying opportunities.

But some Gold purists worry that such comments will "scare people off the bandwagon."

You are talking poppy cock as usual, we welcome dips and also treat them as buying opportunities.

 

Everyone remembers the "gold may be done here, be careful' thread when gold was below $1000. In that thread you weren't encouraging people to buy during the resistance to $1000, you were trying to stoke fear that the gold bull might be over.

 

Now I am being described as a gold purists and am into 100% buy & hold. The truth actually is that I have around 35% of my assets in PM's, the rest of my equity is in real world investments producing real world things via my business. I have always laid things out exactly as they are for me, I am only not 100% into my real world business currently because of this financial crisis.

 

I am getting very bored with the constant insults to my intelligence that are being thrown at me by the traders and their sidekicks on this website. I am not ever going to change my mind on preferring trading to doing real productive business however many insults are thrown at me, all you are doing is showing me more of the reason why.

 

[drbubb]

Okay, Pixel, that does it !

 

I have just suspended you for 24 Hours for an inappropriate posting (just above)

 

I warned you 2-3 days ago, and now you make a post like that. I do not consider this sort of post appropriate for the sort of respectful community that I want to build on GEI.

 

I will ask others who may read the Gambling/Trading thread ( Post#73 ) how long I should suspend next time if/when you return and make a similar posting here.

[signofthetimes]

Bit harsh imo..

 

Pix is one of the more sane posters on here who has a good handle on what's going on.

 

That picture sums up where we are today, even if the language is a bit colourful.

[50sQuiff]

Okay, Pixel, that does it !

 

I have just suspended you for 24 Hours for an inappropriate posting (just above)

 

I warned you 2-3 days ago, and now you make a post like that. I do not consider this sort of post appropriate for the sort of respectful community that I want to build on GEI.

 

I will ask others who may read the Gambling/Trading thread ( Post#73 ) how long I should suspend next time if/when you return and make a similar posting here.

 

Completely unjustified. Not only is the image he posted perfectly accurate, you goaded him into it by - once again - mischaracterising "buy and holders" as idiots with no cash who refuse to countenance any dips in price. Not only do I welcome these buying opportunities, I also waited patiently for it for several months. I have cash flow and consider gold a savings vehicle, rather than an investment or trade. Hence the "buy and hold" approach.

 

This thread should be for general gold commentary, so it doesn't need the "buy and hold" subtitle. You and Pixel need to call a truce before the forum degenerates completely. Difficult times are ahead and this is a forum has role to play. It's full of interesting people and it also caters to a certain type of HPC poster that doesn't hate every private sector business or profession. I'm glad I came across it and you need to welcome more people looking for something beyond HPC.

 

For what it's worth, I think you would do better to place less emphasis on trading options and more on the macro investment themes, politics, philosophy and longer-term investment opportunities and so on. GlobalEdgeTraders.com would attract a very different crowd, and therein lies your problem. Posting about "kicking the crap" out of long-term investors with your options strategies, on a forum called GlobalEdgeInvestors, seems really likely to put people off. The dangerous part is that a new reader, somewhat new to financial markets like I was a few years ago, would actually get the idea from this forum that he should be shorting gold as a strategy, based on your posts.

[Concrete Jungle]

I don't know why you can't all just get along and cut out the distracting petty squabbles and tit for tat name calling, posts and thread titles. That goes for everyone. I imagine we are all here for the same broad reasons. I.E. mistrust of mainstream economists, politicians, central banks, central bankers, banks, bankers, hedge funds and the current monetary / financial system. Trying to minimise the impact of the aforementioned on your wealth, purchasing power, financial security, stability and family.

 

If you buy and hold gold / silver as part of your strategy, it works for you and you are happy with it fine. If you buy and hold miners as part of your strategy, it works for you and you are happy with it fine. If you buy and hold more exotic / complicated instruments as part of your strategy, it works for you and you are happy with it fine. Now substitute the words buy and hold for the words trade and speculate and the same still applies. It is your money, your choice, your risk and your life. Grow up and stop belittling the decisions other people have made, it is their money, their choice, their risk and their life.

[drbubb]

Completely unjustified. Not only is the image he posted perfectly accurate, you goaded him into it by - once again - mischaracterising "buy and holders" as idiots with no cash who refuse to countenance any dips in price. Not only do I welcome these buying opportunities, I also waited patiently for it for several months. I have cash flow and consider gold a savings vehicle, rather than an investment or trade. Hence the "buy and hold" approach.

Yee Gads !

You are putting words in my mouth.

 

A core mission of GEI (who else can decide this?), is to help traders improve their trading capabilities. I do not want to scare off good traders from joining us here by encouraging the assumption that Buy&Hold is the only way.

 

There are people who make their living off trading, and those are the ones that I would especially like to join us. So buying normally requires selling first. If you have a nice healthy income, with surplus cash, then you are lucky. Don't be arrogant enough to assume that everyone else "should be the same."

 

GEI is big enough to cater to both, I reckon.

 

"You and Pixel need to call a truce before the forum degenerates completely. "

? Huh ?

Is it possible you have forgotten who founded this website? As I said, I would like Pixel to stay, since I think his overall contribution here is clearly positive. But he needs to stop abusing traders. Calling them all F**ckers is hardly the sort of name-calling I can tolerate.

== ==

 

Good sensible post, Concrete Jungle