GOLD

[Carlton]

Your first (deleted) thoughts were better Carlton. Numerology has as much validity as astrology

You're right; I thought I might have gone too far.

[drbubb]

It's been a long time coming, but a good buy window may arrive soon

 

MAJOR BUYS may be coming up this week in Gold and Silver*

 

Charts to follow here (on DrB's Diary)

 

*(when was the last time you heard me say that?)

 

In fact, I did some buying today,

But that was mainly related to shorts from last week, at a higher level.

[G0ldfinger]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/19_KWN_Special__Dollar_Devaluation_Coming,_Gold_to_be_Revalued.html

With continued worries surrounding the metals markets, today King World News spoke with the firm that is calling for $10,000 gold. Paul Brodsky, who co-founded QB Asset Management Company, explains, “We spent twenty odd years as bond traders before deciding there was no value anywhere in the interest rate arena at all. As that background would imply, we like to know what fair value is for things. So we went back and knowing that gold was fundamentally cheap we wanted to find where purchasing power parity would be based on all past monetary inflation.”

...

“We figured you should take the monetary base and divide it by official gold holdings. That would give you the price in terms of monetary inflation that it would be worth today. Coincidentally, after we came up with that theory we went back and looked at what they used to use, the formula for arriving at the Bretton Woods dollar exchange value with gold at $35 and it was the same formula. So if you were to divide base money by official gold holdings today, after QE2, you would come up with a price just north of $10,000 an ounce.”

...

“We may go into a weekend and if confidence continues to erode to the point where global trade really falls off a cliff and commercial exchange drops dramatically because fewer people have confidence in the currencies they are receiving, then I could see the Fed or the Treasury opens the drawer and they take out plan B.

 

This would mean they say, ‘Ok, on Monday the Fed would be tendering all gold at $10,000 an ounce,’ or some number that would cover that debt.

...

 

They tender for gold, using this example, at $10,000 an ounce. The proclamation itself would not be inflationary, but the act of purchasing private sector gold at $10,000 an ounce would demand they print a bunch of money and that would be inflationary. That is how the system would be de-levered.

 

 

That would have good ramifications, even though it’s highly inflationary and it devalues the dollar dramatically, it would have politically expedient benefits to debt holders. So we see that as being the end game.”

[Errol]

Brodsky on Gold - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/brodsky-on-gold/

 

We think we know what to expect: ultimately the Fed will formally devalue the dollar to gold and then it will conduct monetary policy on the much higher dollar/gold exchange rate, just as it has conducted credit policy with interest rates over the last generation.

[romans holiday]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/19_KWN_Special__Dollar_Devaluation_Coming,_Gold_to_be_Revalued.html

...using this example, at $10,000 an ounce

 

 

Brodsky on Gold - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/brodsky-on-gold/

 

We think we know what to expect: ultimately the Fed will formally devalue the dollar to gold and then it will conduct monetary policy on the much higher dollar/gold exchange rate, just as it has conducted credit policy with interest rates over the last generation.

First, give it some time.... "informally" in the market.

 

Gold appreciates against the dollar at 20% odd a year; in 10 years gold will quietly go through 10,000.

 

At this point, central banks can step in and formalize the price, fixing it in a new standard at around 10,000. They may be forced to do this in order to stop capital increasingly flying into it, and out of economies.

 

Edited.

[warpig]

You're being wildly optimistic if you think this crisis can last another 10 years before imploding.

 

 

 

First, give it some time.... "informally" in the market.

 

Gold appreciates against the dollar at 20% odd a year; in 10 years gold will quietly go through 10,000.

 

At this point, central banks can step in and formalize the price, fixing it in a new standard at around 10,000. They may be forced to do this in order to stop capital increasingly flying into it, and out of economies.

 

Edited.

[50sQuiff]

First, give it some time.... "informally" in the market.

 

Gold appreciates against the dollar at 20% odd a year; in 10 years gold will quietly go through 10,000.

 

At this point, central banks can step in and formalize the price, fixing it in a new standard at around 10,000. They may be forced to do this in order to stop capital increasingly flying into it, and out of economies.

 

Edited.

 

That's assuming M2 stays flat for 10 years. Not a chance

[G0ldfinger]

That's assuming M2 stays flat for 10 years. Not a chance

Many fail to grasp the dynamic aspect of this whole downfall. All figures I have ever put out as possible targets for the gold price have been status quo figures. They could easily double, triple, etc. depending on the prevailing insanity of the politicos in power.

[drbubb]

The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today.

MAJOR BUYS may be coming up this week in Gold and Silver*

Charts to look very compelling

...

*(when was the last time you heard me say that?)

I am backing up the truck here, friends.

 

 

Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today.

(And I am not done.)

 

Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades.

 

I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA.

 

Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/

 

(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !

You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

[Manual labourer]

The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today.

 

I am backing up the truck here, friends.

 

 

Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today.

(And I am not done.)

 

Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades.

 

I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA.

 

Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/

 

(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !

You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

 

Hi Doc,

 

I still think we will see 1150-1220 area first before $10.000 area or $2200 area.

 

 

Could you explain why you think it is time to back up the truck,on what reasoning do you make that call?

 

Regards

 

ML.

[romans holiday]

You're being wildly optimistic if you think this crisis can last another 10 years before imploding.

It may seem wildly optimistic.... from a wildly pessimistic perspective. I bracket all assumptions, and extrapolate the current trend into the future.

[drbubb]

Hi Doc,

I still think we will see 1150-1220 area first before $10.000 area or $2200 area.

 

Could you explain why you think it is time to back up the truck,on what reasoning do you make that call?

 

Regards ML.

Please see DrB's Diary for that

[Pixel8r]

(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !

You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

The thing about buy and holders is they add to their holdings as cash becomes available by buying on dips with the money they have earnt.

 

It may be a foreign thing to you, actually working for money, but it is something that most of us do. It means we have regular money coming in which doesn't depend on a gamble coming right.

[azazel]

The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today.

 

I am backing up the truck here, friends.

 

 

Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today.

(And I am not done.)

 

Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades.

 

I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA.

 

Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/

 

(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !

You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

 

Im also adding to my position today, silver looking cheaper than gold here.

[sylvester]

Cheap way to make gold found:

 

Man who tried to turn his faeces into gold is jailed

 

A Northern Ireland man who tried to turn his own faeces into gold by putting it on an electric heater has been jailed for three months.

[frizzers]

The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today.

 

I am backing up the truck here, friends.

 

 

Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today.

(And I am not done.)

 

Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. And some of the Buying was done with some nice profits I made since I exited my last big Gold-related trades.

 

I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d MA.

 

Silver/SLV buys may soon be coming up - Orders are alresdy in on SLV calls/

 

(Here's a KEY POINT for the B&H purists !

You need to have Cash to buy when the opportunities roll along.)

 

Ha. I bought some here too.

[warpig]

It seems wildly optimistic from a realistic perspective too.

 

 

 

It may seem wildly optimistic.... from a wildly pessimistic perspective. I bracket all assumptions, and extrapolate the current trend into the future.

[warpig]

I hope he's on to something, I feel like I have a London Good Delivery Bar on the way...

 

Cheap way to make gold found:

 

Man who tried to turn his faeces into gold is jailed

 

 

[drbubb]

The thing about buy and holders is they add to their holdings as cash becomes available by buying on dips with the money they have earnt.

 

It may be a foreign thing to you, actually working for money, but it is something that most of us do. It means we have regular money coming in which doesn't depend on a gamble coming right.

Well I am glad you have a "real job" that throws off surplus cash flow - that's lucky for you.

Does it throw off enough that you can invest $300K in one go? I hope it does.

 

By contrast, I actually make my money from trading and investing and cannot afford to miss big buying and selling opportunities. I don't get them all right, but I can - and must - beat B&H if I want to stay aheadf of the game.

[drbubb]

Cheap way to make gold found:

 

Man who tried to turn his faeces into gold is jailed

There's a good Irish joke in there somewhere,

But I don't want to poke around in it too much.

[G0ldfinger]

...I actually make my money from trading and investing and cannot afford to miss big buying and selling opportunities. ...

The question is how big "big" has to be. The big buying opp. was gold sub-$600 (or, say, sub-$1000). The big selling opp. will be, who knows, 5-digits or something. So, all the noise inbetween you could comfortably ignore (miss) and go swimming instead.

[Pixel8r]

Well I am glad you have a "real job" that throws off surplus cash flow - that's lucky for you.

Does it throw off enough that you can invest $300K in one go? I hope it does.

 

By contrast, I actually make my money from trading and investing and cannot afford to miss big buying and selling opportunities. I don't get them all right, but I can - and must - beat B&H if I want to stay aheadf of the game.

 

Back to the I have a bigger dick than yours comments, that just makes you sound like a bigger bigger dick to me.

 

You will get on well with the bankers with their giant bonuses paid on fantasy derivative profits, you can all go and live in Shangri-la together while the real world burns around you and the people of the world doing real honest work are left in massive amounts of debt placed on them by those bankers. Soon the banking traders will own everything and nothing will actually be produced anymore for them to spend their worthless fiat currency on.

 

How long before the wbankers get a sense of community where not everything is valued by how much money you have or have won via trading today? There is a massive deficit in the banking community and I am not talking about a financial one, they are seriously missing basic humanity. They exist in a world where they detach themselves from the rest of the world and consider themselves to be above other humans, you display this trait via this website and why people take offence to your approach.

 

BTW luck has nothing to do with the fact that I have a job, it is due to my ability and hard work.

[drbubb]

The question is how big "big" has to be. The big buying opp. was gold sub-$600 (or, say, sub-$1000). The big selling opp. will be, who knows, 5-digits or something. So, all the noise inbetween you could comfortably ignore (miss) and go swimming instead.

Sure - and I owned Gold and Gold shares through those opportunities, and got far above Gold by owning the shares in the early years of the Up Move.

 

Here are some of the real Gold positions I have been holding since my last Big Buy in late 2010 or early 2011:

 

POSITION=== : =TYPE== : EXPIRY : Strike : No : Value : Cost : Valuation

GLD1221A125 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $125 : 32 : 34.25 : 13.34 : 109,600. : +156.7%

GLD1221A130 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $130 : 30 : 29.50 : 11.32 : $88,500. : +160.6%

 

Obviously, those returns of around +156-160% are miles ahead of what Gold has done.

 

(I am only mentioning these, because some here seem to doubt the results that can be achieved through a "trading approach" - even though I now have many months of Beating B&H in the Silver market.)

 

Sure, some of that was hedged "too early", but I wound up making money on some of those hedges, and I also took profits on some other GLD Calls, selling when Gold was around $1900 per ounce.

 

As an example of a "Hedge" position, I sold Jan $160 Calls as follows:

 

POSITION=== : =TYPE== : EXPIRY : Strike : No : Value : Cost : Valuation

GLD1221A160 CALL GLD 01/21/12 : $160 : 5S : $8.07 : 18.64 : -$4,035. :

 

Now I can re-enter new GLD Calls investing those trading and hedging profits.

[drbubb]

 

Back to the I have a bigger dick than yours comments, that just makes you sound like a bigger bigger dick to me.

 

You will get on well with the bankers with their giant bonuses paid on fantasy derivative profits, you can all go and live in Shangri-la together while the real world burns around you and the people of the world doing real honest work are left in massive amounts of debt placed on them by those bankers. Soon the banking traders will own everything and nothing will actually be produced anymore for them to spend their worthless fiat currency on.

 

How long before the wbankers get a sense of community where not everything is valued by how much money you have or have won via trading today? There is a massive deficit in the banking community and I am not talking about a financial one, they are seriously missing basic humanity. They exist in a world where they detach themselves from the rest of the world and consider themselves to be above other humans, you display this trait via this website and why people take offence to your approach.

 

BTW luck has nothing to do with the fact that I have a job, it is due to my ability and hard work.

You are the one who put it in these terms - not me.

 

 

You post loads and loads of times, that "you should not trade Gold positions", and so when I give actual evidence that I am beating Buy and Hold with some consistency, you accuse me of bragging about the size of an organ. (! ??)

 

What do you want me to do? - Let misinformation pass here without showing evidence to the contrary?

 

Why not just say : "Well done. Keep us informed on your trades, maybe I will follow them sometimes."

 

That's what some others here seem to be doing. (And they sometimes share their ideas of Buying and Selling windows, rather than knocking those who have a system that seems to work.)

 

BTW, I cannot claim to always get it right - only the Buy & Hold brigade is always right with their trading strategy. (haha)

 

"BTW luck has nothing to do with the fact that I have a job, it is due to my ability and hard work."

 

(Do you think it is merely "luck" that I am beating Buy and Hold, and making a decent living as a trader and investor? Unlike some others here, I even give away much of "my product" for free.)

[Pixel8r]

(Do you think it is merely "luck" that I am beating Buy and Hold, and making a decent living as a trader and investor? Unlike some others here, I even give away much of "my product" for free.)

The problem I have is with the act of trading not investing, I have only seen you talking about trading recently rather than any investing. I originally started posting on this site because it was called Global Edge Investors (GEI), you should change the name to Global Edge Traders (GET) it seems a lot more descriptive of your purpose. As I have gone into at length previously on here I think that the rise in trading over the last decade is helping to bring the world to the current situation. I have no problem with investing of course , investing is exactly what is missing from the world currently. Bankers are being allowed to make too much money from trading, they are putting the whole financial system at risk and are not being taxed highly enough. The sooner they are disallowed from acting the way they have been the better, the money men should go back to investing in developing the economy for the whole community rather than just trading (gambling) between each other paying themselves giant bonuses while letting their losses be monetised. This all comes down to control, selfishness & greed IMO, bankers have become too powerful and by encouraging trading you are just playing along with their game. Ask yourself when will you ever have enough money and power?

 

I have a good job because of the investment of time and money I have made into it.

 

Answer me this what good does your trading do, or the passing on of your knowledge, do for the humanity as a whole? Do you believe the same as Jamie Dimon that you are 'doing god's work'.