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Well, FWIW, I'm planning for a sharp fall in the POG very soon, back to around £890 or the 200 dma (for GBP).

 

Since Dec 08 lows, we have seen 5 up legs, each lasting about 4-5+ months after the 20 dma crosses the 50 dma.

 

The last leg up, or crossover, was in March. Therefore IMO the recent high of c.£1000 was a top and we will see a healthy pullback to test the main primary bull trend.

 

We may see one final push up to £1110-1115, but then the correction.

 

Anyone else care to comment on the duration of the uplegs, and my forecast for a retest of the trend lows?

 

Thx.

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Please tell the decision makers on HPC greetings from their former poster "Goldfinger" (+5,000 posts or so), and please tell them that they are f**king morons. They could have had this 4 years ago. But no, they banned everything related to gold, and in due course lost out on a 200% profit.

 

F**king morons.

 

But I guess the longer this bull market goes, the more of that kind will come to surface.

 

 

 

There were, and still are, astroturf posters over at HPC (scepticus, extra-dry-martini) that wrote very lucidly who always rubbished gold. Too many suckers bought into the consensus. Tne R4 listening Oxbridge loving consensus are gonna pay big time for their inability or unwillingness to think critically. Gerald Celente argues that this will all be good for the gene pool in the long-run. Clearly, not everybody is going to make it.

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But I guess the longer this bull market goes, the more of that kind will come to surface.

 

 

That's going to be an unfortunate part of the deal in the next phase. We'll lose that comfortable feeling being ahead of the herd, and will have to run with it for a while (or for some considerable time, if previously asset craze trends are duplicated).

 

All the shills, chancers, opportunists and liars have been jumping on board for months and it'll only get worse. Listening to them makes me sick, but staying with them will make me money. I'm willing to hold my nose if it'll mean benefiting from a phase 3 bull rally.

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Based on your own commentary below, don't you feel the EU/western debt crisis will somewhat overwhelm the charts at some point? IMO it will and primary trend lines will be out of the window. What I can't be certain of is when, but I think we're close if not at the beginning of something far more cataclysmic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, FWIW, I'm planning for a sharp fall in the POG very soon, back to around £890 or the 200 dma (for GBP).

 

Since Dec 08 lows, we have seen 5 up legs, each lasting about 4-5+ months after the 20 dma crosses the 50 dma.

 

The last leg up, or crossover, was in March. Therefore IMO the recent high of c.£1000 was a top and we will see a healthy pullback to test the main primary bull trend.

 

We may see one final push up to £1110-1115, but then the correction.

 

Anyone else care to comment on the duration of the uplegs, and my forecast for a retest of the trend lows?

 

Thx.

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By giving it its own forum?

 

I could hypothesize that goldbugs have RSI and can't use the scroll wheels on their computer mice, but as a goldbug myself, I know that isn't true.

 

What a shame that at the same time as pinning the thread someone didn't pin that disgrace to moderation, the ranting Banner creature to a tree, terminally!

 

Hi Bart :D

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That's going to be an unfortunate part of the deal in the next phase. We'll lose that comfortable feeling being ahead of the herd, and will have to run with it for a while (or for some considerable time, if previously asset craze trends are duplicated).

 

All the shills, chancers, opportunists and liars have been jumping on board for months and it'll only get worse. Listening to them makes me sick, but staying with them will make me money. I'm willing to hold my nose if it'll mean benefiting from a phase 3 bull rally.

 

This is trully going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard.

 

I have to ask myself am I prepared to ride it up to £1100 then see the drop to £890 ???? Am I staying with the herd or am " I " the herd ??

 

At what point do I exit ?? Maybe I should have answered that question when I entered @ £300......Oh I did.....£500, no hold on longer....£700, no hold on longer.....£800, ok sell some ( only 5 - 10% ) and buy back lower......Dammm it, its still going up..........Ok, sell @ £900, oh missed that, never mind still going up will hang in there.................................... When will this madness end :-)

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This is trully going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard.

 

I have to ask myself am I prepared to ride it up to £1100 then see the drop to £890 ???? Am I staying with the herd or am " I " the herd ??

 

At what point do I exit ?? Maybe I should have answered that question when I entered @ £300......Oh I did.....£500, no hold on longer....£700, no hold on longer.....£800, ok sell some ( only 5 - 10% ) and buy back lower......Dammm it, its still going up..........Ok, sell @ £900, oh missed that, never mind still going up will hang in there.................................... When will this madness end :-)

I think this madness, as you put it, will end when gold become linked to currency again probably via the SDR. So you will only miss maybe 10 or 20% by not selling at the peak. There is no way we will ever see $890 again, too much fiat has been created.

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This is truly going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard.

 

 

 

Where else would anyone go?!

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I think this madness, as you put it, will end when gold become linked to currency again probably via the SDR. So you will only miss maybe 10 or 20% by not selling at the peak. There is no way we will ever see $890 again, too much fiat has been created.

If this is anything to judge by, we are still FAR from any 'par value' for gold vs paper...

 

China urges U.S. to boost confidence in debt, dollar

(Reuters) - China pressed the United States to take "responsible" measures to boost market confidence in the dollar and U.S. government debt on Wednesday, underscoring investor worries that Washington could default on its debt.

...

The currency regulator also argued it cannot invest too much of China's reserves in commodities such as oil, gold and silver these markets are too volatile and small.

 

"Chinese companies and households consume a large amount of gold and crude oil," it said.

 

"If we use much of our foreign exchange reserves to invest in such areas, we could push up market prices, which may affect our people's consumption and economic development."

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Where else would anyone go?!

 

Exactly. I think well I could sell a portion and that would mean the remaining portion is in affect free, but what would I do with the money.

 

I have no other choise but to ride the bull.

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This is trully going to be a testing time for all of us, when the bull starts bucking can we stay aboard.

 

I have to ask myself am I prepared to ride it up to £1100 then see the drop to £890 ???? Am I staying with the herd or am " I " the herd ??

 

At what point do I exit ?? Maybe I should have answered that question when I entered @ £300......Oh I did.....£500, no hold on longer....£700, no hold on longer.....£800, ok sell some ( only 5 - 10% ) and buy back lower......Dammm it, its still going up..........Ok, sell @ £900, oh missed that, never mind still going up will hang in there.................................... When will this madness end :-)

 

 

Not sure what to make of your tone, but there will be much more money made or lost as a result of timing your exit from gold than there ever was entering it. The exit point is years off yet, but regardless of how much I've made (bought in 2003 to give you some idea) I know I'll be sweating on when to jump ship. The exit decision is crucial, much in the same way that jumping out of property too soon cost many smart people tens of thousands of pounds.

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I have just tried to post the graph below to the new HPC gold thread and have realised that I cannot post to it anymore. They really are ahead of the curve. laugh.gif

 

20110720-jcc7e72hhm7m2m12ett94iqxe4.jpg

 

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So you will only miss maybe 10 or 20% by not selling at the peak.

 

I'm not convinced about gold staying permanently that close to the eventual highs, although if I can get within 20% I'll be more than happy. Even if it does plateau there's bound to be more profitable places to park your wealth by that point, otherwise gold would still be rising!

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I have just tried to post the graph below to the new HPC gold thread and have realised that I cannot post to it anymore. They really are ahead of the curve.

 

Relax Pix, Bruce Banner will nick it & claim his financial credentials had previously been kept under wraps because he had to be impartial.

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Not sure what to make of your tone, but there will be much more money made or lost as a result of timing your exit from gold than there ever was entering it. The exit point is years off yet, but regardless of how much I've made (bought in 2003 to give you some idea) I know I'll be sweating on when to jump ship. The exit decision is crucial, much in the same way that jumping out of property too soon cost many smart people tens of thousands of pounds.

 

 

 

The thing that concerns me is that if I had bought property in 1998 and rode the bull all through the heady days of 2006, missed the top and sold today. I would still stand to receive substancial returns. The housing market is like a huge oil tanker and takes years to slow, stop and reverse.

 

What I am not so sure on is the speed that commodity markets slow, stop and reverse. ( yes, yes I know GIM etc )

 

Knowing / planning when to " jump ship " certainly is turning into a burden for me.

 

It would be a shame to join the bull early only to exit just when its getting exciting. Likewise no one wants to ride the wave all the way up and down ( probably adding further to my position on the way down )

 

 

In everyway I agree with all here that the peak is probably years off, but it doesn't stop me questioning my reasoning.

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This is something that also worries me.

 

Just as we build positions over time, then my plan would be to average out over time once i feel we are getting close to the end game

 

Its too easy to think we can pick the exact top, so sell out in stages and leave some profit for the next guy

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This is a question and answer from www.weberglobal.net 15‐July‐2011

Chris Weber has great insight and has been it gold and silver since the start of this bull market. Always worth paying close attention to what he says.

 

Q: Mr. Weber: This may never happen, but what if governments decided to back their

currencies with gold and established a fixed price for gold as it was before the US went off

the gold standard?

Would the price of gold crash to the new price? Would the price go substantially higher

because of the new demand caused by such actions?

 

 

A: I think there is a good chance of this indeed happening, since we have the makings of a global

hyperinflation which will end in a global currency collapse. People are slowly coming to own gold in

their personal portfolios, and central banks are once again accumulating it. If there is to be

restored convertibility, the price would have to be much higher than the current price. It is too soon

to tell now the price range, but I think that $5,000 per ounce would be a starting point, given how

things are today. But that could change.

 

If this happened, your gold would be worth much more in terms of national currencies than it is

now. The chances of gold crashing if governments restored convertibility are so small as to be

zero. They would only be restoring convertibility in the first place because people would be putting

much more value on gold then they do today. Therefore the market price would be much higher,

and the official price would have to be much higher still in order for a fixed price to work.

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This is something that also worries me.

 

Just as we build positions over time, then my plan would be to average out over time once i feel we are getting close to the end game

 

Its too easy to think we can pick the exact top, so sell out in stages and leave some profit for the next guy

Do you really think we are approaching the end game? I don't think this will end until at least 2014, interest rates have gone so far negative now. If you go off the way CPI used to be calculated via John Williams shadow stats figures, the CPI is currently around 10% while base rates in the US are 0.25%.

 

From history gold prices continue to rise until rates go to 2% above the inflation rate, so the gold price has a whole load further to go yet.

 

In the 1970 gold bull run the gold price went from $35 to $850 which is an increase of over 24 times. Things are much worse this time, yet we have only seen an increase of around 6.5 times so far.

 

This bull run is far from over the public still has virtually zero exposure, talk to the average man in the street and they just look at you strangely.

 

 

The chart below shows gold performance compared to real rates (bond rate - CPI) and this is using the official CPI rate, which we all know is cooked. They are currently discussing changing it again to make deficit reductions via reducing social security in the US, I am sure similar will happen here in the UK at some point.

 

 

 

20110704-nhnep1ix3kw9pmcjf2mr37t1in.jpg

 

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I have just tried to post the graph below to the new HPC gold thread and have realised that I cannot post to it anymore. They really are ahead of the curve. laugh.gif

 

20110720-jcc7e72hhm7m2m12ett94iqxe4.jpg

 

Have they banned you too then Pix? Ive been banned for no reason. I had my posting ability censored by the mods as I quoted and linked from here what cgnao said about the fall of the pound v euro and then I was banned when I requested that the restrictions be lifted. The place is a waste of time and pinning a new gold thread in the main discussion area is really an admittion that they made a huge mistake that largely undermines the basis of their website. Yes there will be a huge house price crash, but mainly when priced in gold. They may be able to reverse their mistake but golds double the price and they're three years too late. Its a shame that they may have discouraged some from benefiting from it.

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that really is a great graph pixel8r, and shows just how far away we are from a top.

The truly strange thing about it is I have been doing it since 2007 and it still fits, which is amazing when you notice that the chart is actually a log plot. I once forwarded it onto James Turk and he mentioned that it showed the truly hyperbolic nature of the gold price in GBP.

 

Edit; just realised you way have been talking about the real rates graph, I agree it is but think it would be better if it was done with the shadow stats cpi figures.

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Have they banned you too then Pix? Ive been banned for no reason. I had my posting ability censored by the mods as I quoted and linked from here what cgnao said about the fall of the pound v euro and then I was banned when I requested that the restrictions be lifted. The place is a waste of time and pinning a new gold thread in the main discussion area is really an admittion that they made a huge mistake that largely undermines the basis of their website. Yes there will be a huge house price crash, but mainly when priced in gold. They may be able to reverse their mistake but golds double the price and they're three years too late. Its a shame that they may have discouraged some from benefiting from it.

Yes, I can still log in but nothing I attempt to post actually shows up. I give up on them, bunch of muppets.

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