GOLD

[Manual labourer]

I think it's more pertinant to think of how many calls there are on all of this gold.

How many owners 'own' an ounce in the vault?

 

If you don't hold it.... you.. are... gonna.. be.... toast...

 

 

 

Sorry to seem a bit thick here but how do you lease gold out and what are the ramifications of it?

 

Who do you lease it to, do you maintain control of it or does somebody give you an IOU?

 

I.e. what has the Belgium government actually done with its gold?

 

Regards

 

ML

[Schaublin]

 

Sorry to seem a bit thick here but how do you lease gold out and what are the ramifications of it?

 

Who do you lease it to, do you maintain control of it or does somebody give you an IOU?

 

I.e. what has the Belgium government actually done with its gold?

 

Regards

 

ML

 

The only reason that gold is rented or leased is so that the lease holder can sell it and gamble with the money. Back in the day, it was a great trade as the POG was driven lower each year - partly by the gold being sold! My guess about the Belgian gold is that the renters just keep paying the rent on it - but almost certainly are unable to buy back in and return it. In other words, it has gone - much like most other leased gold I suspect. It will all come out one day and there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth

[warpig]

The "lease holders" are the bullion banks, who then sell it to 'all and sundry.' The bullion is expected to be returned at some point in the future, however in the meantime, the "lease holder" will pay the "lease rate" on the metal. They aren't concerned with specific serial numbered bars being returned to them, just as long as the same number of troy ounces are returned. So the metal leaves the CB and is deposited in the bullion bank's vault, the CB lose control but receive an IOU plus a yield from the "lease holder". The reason they do it, "so they say...." is because gold produces no income and so they put it to work, however as chris ct says, possession is 9/10th of the law and as Schaublin says, a prerequisite is a gold bear market...

 

 

Sorry to seem a bit thick here but how do you lease gold out and what are the ramifications of it?

 

Who do you lease it to, do you maintain control of it or does somebody give you an IOU?

 

I.e. what has the Belgium government actually done with its gold?

 

Regards

 

ML

[Manual labourer]

The "lease holders" are the bullion banks, who then sell it to 'all and sundry.' The bullion is expected to be returned at some point in the future, however in the meantime, the "lease holder" will pay the "lease rate" on the metal. They aren't concerned with specific serial numbered bars being returned to them, just as long as the same number of troy ounces are returned. So the metal leaves the CB and is deposited in the bullion bank's vault, the CB lose control but receive an IOU plus a yield from the "lease holder". The reason they do it, "so they say...." is because gold produces no income and so they put it to work, however as chris ct says, possession is 9/10th of the law and as Schaublin says, a prerequisite is a gold bear market...

 

Thanks for the replies guys!

 

 

How dumb is that, here is my insurance policy, I will lease it to you FOR NOW if the SHTF SENARIO HAPPENS, I expect you to give it me back?

 

Ha Ha Ha!!!

 

http://info.goldavenue.com/info_site/in_mark/in_offgold_lease.htm

 

 

Initially, leasing often came from central banks in developing countries, eager for some return on gold but, increasingly, major European central banks, including the Austrian, Belgian, Netherlands, German and UK central banks, came to participate. Even the Swiss National Bank joined in. GFMS estimate that between 1995 and 1999 over 60% of new leasing came from European central banks.

[Carlton]

^^ You guys are speaking as if the central banks surrender physical control of the gold. I don't think that's ever been confirmed.

[Carlton]

From Lorimer Wilson:

 

3 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011!

 

Bob Kirtley: $10,000;

Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000;

Taran Marwah: $3,000;

 

10 Analysts See Gold Reaching its Peak By the End of 2012

 

Arnold Bock: $10,000;

Porter Stansberry: $10,000;

Taran Marwah: $6,000+;

Greg McCoach: $5,000+;

Robert McEwen: $5,000;

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000;

John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000;

Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000;

Peter Hambro: $2,500;

Charles Nenner: $2,500

 

These 11 Analysts See Gold Going Parabolic to +$10,000

 

DoctoRX: $20,000 (by 2020);

Mike Maloney: $15,000;

Ben Davies: $10,000 – $15,000;

Howard Katz: $14,000;

Jeffrey Lewis: $7,000 – $14,000;

Jim Sinclair: $12,455;

Goldrunner: $10,000 – $12,000;

Martin Armstrong: $5,000 – $12,000 (by 2015/16);

Robin Griffiths: $3,000 – $12,000 (by 2015);

Jim Rickards: $4,000 – $11,000;

Roland Watson: $10,800;

 

These 46 Analysts See Gold Price Peaking Between $5,001 and $10,000

 

Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (by 2011);

Arnold Bock: $10,000 (by 2012);

Porter Stansberry: $10,000 (by 2012);

Peter George: $10,000 (by 2015);

Tom Fischer: $10,000;

Shayne McGuire: $10,000;

Eric Hommelberg: $10,000;

David Petch: $6,000 – $10,000;

Gerald Celente: $6,000 – $10,000;

Egon von Greyerz: $6,000 – $10,000;

Peter Schiff: $5,000 – $10,000 (in 5 to 10 years);

Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000 (by 2011);

Peter Millar: $5,000 – $10,000;

Roger Wiegand: $5,000 – $10,000;

Alf Field: $4,250 – $10,000;

Jeff Nielson: $3,000 – $10,000;

Dennis van Ek: $9,000 (by 2015);

Dominic Frisby: $8,000;

Paul Brodsky: $8,000;

James Turk: $8,000 (by 2015);

Joseph Russo: $7,000 – $8,000;

Bob Chapman: $7,700;

Michael Rozeff: $2,865 – $7,151;

Jim Willie: $7,000;

Greg McCoach: $6,500;

Dylan Grice: $6,300;

Chris Mack: $6,241.64 (by 2015);

Chuck DiFalco: $6,214 (by 2018);

Jeff Clark: $6,214;

Aubie Baltin: $6,200 (by 2017);

Murray Sabrin: $6,153;

Adam Hamilton: $6,000+;

Samuel “Bud” Kress: $6,000 (by 2014);

Robert Kientz: $6,000;

Harry Schultz: $6,000;

John Bougearel: $6,000;

David Tice: $5,000 – $6,000;

Laurence Hunt: $5,000 – $6,000 (by 2019);

Taran Marwah: $3,000 – $6,000+ (by Dec. 2011 and Dec.2012, respectively);

Martin Hutchinson: $3,100 – $5,700;

Stephen Leeb: $5,500 (by 2015);

Louise Yamada: $5,200;

Jeremy Charlesworth: $5,000+;

Przemyslaw Radomski: $5,000+;

Jason Hamlin: $5,000+;

David McAlvany: $5,000+

 

Cumulative sub-total: 57

 

These 33 Analysts Believe Gold Price Could Go As High As $5,000

 

David Rosenberg: $5,000;

James West: $5,000;

Doug Casey: $5,000;

Peter Cooper: $5,000;

Robert McEwen: $5,000 (by 2012 – 2014);

Peter Krauth: $5,000;

Tim Iacono: $5,000 (by 2017);

Christopher Wyke: $5,000;

Frank Barbera: $5,000;

John Lee: $5,000;

Barry Dawes: $5,000;

Bob Lenzer: $5,000 (by 2015);

Steve Betts: $5,000;

Stewart Thomson: $5,000;

Charles Morris: $5,000 (by 2015);

Marvin Clark: $5,000 (by 2015);

Eric Sprott: $5,000;

Nathan Narusis: $5,000;

Bud Conrad: $4,000 – $5,000;

Paul Mylchreest: $4,000 – $5,000;

Pierre Lassonde: $4,000 – $5,000;

Willem Middelkoop: $4,000 – $5,000;

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000 (by February 2012);

James Dines: $3,000 – $5,000;

Bill Murphy: $3,000 – $5,000;

Bill Bonner: $3,000 – $5,000;

Peter Degraaf: $2,500 – $5,000;

Eric Janszen: $2,500 – $5,000;

Larry Jeddeloh: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2013);

Larry Edelson: $2,300 – $5,000 (by 2015);

Luke Burgess: $2,000 – $5,000;

Marc Faber: $1,500 – $5,000;

Robert Lloyd-George: $5,000 (by 2014)

 

Cumulative sub-total: 90

 

31 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Up to Between $3,000 and $4,999

 

1. David Moenning: $4,525;

 

2. Larry Reaugh: $4,000+;

 

3. Ernest Kepper: $4,000;

 

4. Mike Knowles: $4,000;

 

5. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston: $4,000;

 

6. Barry Elias: $4,000; (by 2020);

 

7. Jay Taylor: $3,000 – $4,000;

 

8. Christian Barnard: $2,500 – $4,000;

 

9. John Paulson: $2,400 – $4,000 (by 2012);

 

10. Paul Tustain: $3,844;

 

11. Myles Zyblock: $3,800;

 

12. Eric Roseman: $2,500 – $3,500 (by 2015);

 

13. Christopher Wood: $3,360;

 

14. Franklin Sanders: $3,130;

 

15. John Henderson: $3,000+ (by 2015 – 17);

 

16. Michael Berry: $3,000+ (by 2015);

 

17. Hans Goetti: $3,000;

 

18. Michael Yorba: $3,000;

 

19. David Urban; $3,000;

 

20. Mitchell Langbert: $3,000;

 

21. Brett Arends: $3,000;

 

22. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: $3,000;

 

23. John Williams: $3,000;

 

24. Byron King: $3,000;

 

25. Ron Paul: $3,000 (by 2020);

 

26. Chris Weber: $3,000 (by 2020);

 

27. Mark Leibovit: $3,000;

 

28. Mark O’Byrne: $3,000;

 

29. Kevin Kerr: $3,000;

 

30. Frank Holmes: $3,000;

 

31. Shamik Bhose: $3,000 (by 2014)

 

Cumulative sub-total: 121

 

These 12 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go to Between $2,500 and $3,000

 

Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000 (by 2012);

Jeff Nichols: $2,000 – $3,000;

Graham French: $2,000 – $3,000;

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: $2,000 – $3,000;

Joe Foster: $2,000 – $3,000 (by 2019);

David Morgan: $2,900;

Sascha Opel: $2,500+;

Rick Rule: $2,500 (by 2013);

Daniel Brebner: $2,500;

James DiGeorgia: $2,500;

Peter Hambro: $2,500 (by 2012);

Charles Nenner: $2,500 (by 2012 – 13)

 

Grand Total: 133

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1308463740.php

[Pixel8r]

It seems a bit daft to try and put a final price that gold will go to and when to me. Gold is going up but the amount it goes to and the time it takes is dependant on how much currency is created from thin air. That is virtually impossible to put a number on. For instance with the Greek situation currently it was first said that that it could cost the UK £2.5 billion, but now it has been released that it could be as high as £336 billion.

 

Rather than trying to guess how high gold will go when valued in a flawed fiat currency, I think it is better to think about what you will be able to exchange your gold for and when. Who knows if the dollar will even still be around by 2020. I think looking at the great charts over at approximity give a lot better valuation to where gold will go, like the dow/gold ratio and the house/gold ratio charts.

[romans holiday]

Gold price trend is pretty clear, 20% odd appreciation annually against the reserve currency. Factoring in also the depreciation of assets [against the dollar], and you have an even greater relative appreciation of gold in real terms.

 

[Pixel8r]

Gold price trend is pretty clear, 20% odd appreciation annually against the reserve currency. Factoring in also the depreciation of assets [against the dollar], and you have an even greater relative appreciation of gold in real terms.

 

Same conversation we have had before, but needs to be had again by the looks of things.

 

The trend in gold prices will and is accelerating as time goes on, each amount of printed money has less effect therefore causing more to be printed and leading to higher prices. The trend line since October 2008 is at more at a 42% rate of increase, until that line breaks why call it 20% when it has been in place for over 2 years?

 

There seems little point to keep reposting the flawed analysis.

 

 

 

[Errol]

Is Gold Flying Under the Radar? - http://expectedreturnsblog.com/is-gold-flying-under-the-radar/

[electroweak]

Where do people turn when TSHTF? ....

 

 

Greek savers rush for gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c986823e-9bf8-11e0-bef9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Q0JnZzgG

By Kerin Hope in Athens

 

Published: June 21 2011 13:50 | Last updated: June 21 2011 22:34

 

Greek citizens are emptying savings accounts and buying gold as they brace themselves for the possibility of a sovereign default and a run on the banks.

 

Pledges by socialist prime minister George Papandreou that his government would “save the country” have been widely discounted by the public.

 

Sales of gold coins have soared as savers seek a safer and fungible source of value.

 

“When the global financial crisis started, our sales of coins to investors overtook bullion for the first time,” said Harry Krinakis, at Sepheriades, a Greek precious metals trader. “Now the sales ratio has reached five to one.”

 

Tomas, a computer technician, has exchanged his euro savings for gold coins: “I keep them at home just like my grandmother did in the second world war.”

 

....

 

Monthly bank withdrawals were running at €1.5bn-€2bn (£1.3bn-£1.8bn) in the first quarter. Last year, depositors withdrew €30bn, equivalent to 12.3 per cent of total savings, according to the central bank. Greek deposits worth an estimated €8bn were transferred to banks in Cyprus in 2010. But the flow has dried up this year amid fears that Cypriot banks could suffer contagion.

 

 

New high in GBP gold today...

Gold:

£957.60/oz

£30.7888/g

 

Real Gold for retail well over £1000 /Oz.

http://www.coininvestdirect.com/en/gold_coins/

Maple Leaf 2011, 1oz Gold 31.10g £1007.58

[shawth]

It seems a bit daft to try and put a final price that gold will go to and when to me. Gold is going up but the amount it goes to and the time it takes is dependant on how much currency is created from thin air. That is virtually impossible to put a number on. For instance with the Greek situation currently it was first said that that it could cost the UK £2.5 billion, but now it has been released that it could be as high as £336 billion.

 

Rather than trying to guess how high gold will go when valued in a flawed fiat currency, I think it is better to think about what you will be able to exchange your gold for and when. Who knows if the dollar will even still be around by 2020. I think looking at the great charts over at approximity give a lot better valuation to where gold will go, like the dow/gold ratio and the house/gold ratio charts.

 

Agreed. For what its worth, here is the article for the $20k forecast which is to date the highest. I think it is credible, but as pix pointed out, it depends entirely on how much currency needs to be created to pay down the total liabilities of the US.

 

$20k gold forecast

[Pixel8r]

Agreed. For what its worth, here is the article for the $20k forecast which is to date the highest. I think it is credible, but as pix pointed out, it depends entirely on how much currency needs to be created to pay down the total liabilities of the US.

 

$20k gold forecast

Bix Weir has been saying that 'Silver Can Go Below $0 or to $1,000,000 In A Nanosecond'

[shawth]

Bix Weir has been saying that 'Silver Can Go Below $0 or to $1,000,000 In A Nanosecond'

 

How can it go below $0?

 

I take your point, but I think these estimates based on gold as a % of total wealth and also total outstanding debt / the amount of above ground gold is a credible way to value gold at the present time given what we know of best estimates of above ground gold and best estimates of total outstanding liabilities, both on and off book.

 

Therefore saying it could go below 0 and to 1,000,000 is theorectically true but doesn't add anything to an investor trying to work out potential tops and if we are anywhere near them.

[Errol]

Greeks Turn Savings To Gold And Perth Mint Silver Coin Sales Surge To Record On Safe Haven Demand

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greeks-turn-savings-gold-and-perth-mint-silver-coin-sales-surge-record-safe-haven-demand

[lyb]

I am one of them. I recently changed tactics and are bying gold every week, regardless of price,

instead of restricting purchaces during the slow summer period.

 

No queues, however, or lack of physical. The article is exaggerating.

[romans holiday]

Same conversation we have had before, but needs to be had again by the looks of things.

 

The trend in gold prices will and is accelerating as time goes on, each amount of printed money has less effect therefore causing more to be printed and leading to higher prices. The trend line since October 2008 is at more at a 42% rate of increase, until that line breaks why call it 20% when it has been in place for over 2 years?

 

There seems little point to keep reposting the flawed analysis.

 

Time will tell. The longer term trend is more significant imo... it also gives you more room to the downside if another correction comes. If you take the latest short/ medium term trend of "42%" as your guide [from the heavy correcting spike down in 2008, which seems an odd point to take as bullion always over-corrects], that would put gold at over 2100 this time next year. Could be, but more likely the price will be around 1700/ 1800 based on the long trend. Why not be a bit less patronizing to other views....a definitive answer could only be found by re-visiting it in a year or so's time. Or again, look at what has been predicted a year or so ago. I've been predicting a slow and steady increase in POG for quite some time... in contrast to the moon rockets, a rare sight these days.

[romans holiday]

I am one of them. I recently changed tactics and are bying gold every week, regardless of price,

instead of restricting purchaces during the slow summer period.

 

No queues, however, or lack of physical. The article is exaggerating.

Makes sense if one is building a core in bullion. But then I wonder, if the trend is clear, why not just pile in 50% or your liquid worth or so... and hold back with some funds if concerned about a large correction, or if concerned you might be being deceived by some evil genius.

[lyb]

Makes sense if one is building a core in bullion. But then I wonder, if the trend is clear, why not just pile in 50% or your liquid worth or so... and hold back with some funds if concerned about a large correction, or if concerned you might be being deceived by some evil genius.

 

I am about 90% invested in PM, started in 2005. Purchases are made with profits from selling silver in May. What is interesting,is that trading is difficult, if you have to worry about the stability of your bank, while you are waiting

for the next buying opportunity. You may share this experience in the future when this crisis spreads.

I am now convinced that physical in your possession is best protection rather than gold shares and am trying to

increase the former as much as I can. Bank of Greece stopped selling gold coins and Bank of Piraeus has now

restricted sales to 5 coins per customer per week (with 10% premium).

[Pixel8r]

Time will tell. The longer term trend is more significant imo... it also gives you more room to the downside if another correction comes. If you take the latest short/ medium term trend of "42%" as your guide [from the heavy correcting spike down in 2008, which seems an odd point to take as bullion always over-corrects], that would put gold at over 2100 this time next year. Could be, but more likely the price will be around 1700/ 1800 based on the long trend. Why not be a bit less patronizing to other views....a definitive answer could only be found by re-visiting it in a year or so's time. Or again, look at what has been predicted a year or so ago. I've been predicting a slow and steady increase in POG for quite some time... in contrast to the moon rockets, a rare sight these days.

The thing is time has already told, we have been having this same conversation for years! I expect gold to be at least $2100 by June 2012, if not higher and the rate of increase steepened further. I remember arguing with you that when gold was around $950 that they next time it went through $1000 it wouldn't look back, at the time you were still saying it was going to be correcting. Look where we are now at $1550 which doesn't seem that slow and stable to me.

 

Here's my hyperbolic curve on a log graph of gold in pounds again, which clearly shows that increasing rate of change.

 

[Pixel8r]

How can it go below $0?

 

I take your point, but I think these estimates based on gold as a % of total wealth and also total outstanding debt / the amount of above ground gold is a credible way to value gold at the present time given what we know of best estimates of above ground gold and best estimates of total outstanding liabilities, both on and off book.

 

Therefore saying it could go below 0 and to 1,000,000 is theorectically true but doesn't add anything to an investor trying to work out potential tops and if we are anywhere near them.

Sorry I am not sure what he said about it as I don't subscribe to his service, just caught the headline.

 

The thing with using outstanding liabilities to calculate the gold price is that they are always changing at an increasing rate, what works today is out of date tomorrow. I think it is much better to value gold against other things rather than a flawed fiat currency. As I said above I find it much better to try and use the ratios to other assets to work out potential tops. How could you have worked out a potential top for gold in Zimbabwe dollars a few years back, a gold to food, share, oil or property ratio would have been much better?

 

 

[Carlton]

 

We use a 200-day moving average to smooth out the volatility. In the summer of 2008, the 200-day MA of the Gold/Oil ratio was about 8. Its presently at 15 which aside from early 2009, is at a 10-year high. The Gold/Industrial Metals ratio in the summer of 2008 was at 2.0. It’s now at 3.11. In 2007-2008, the ratios were near four-year lows and that was reflected in the weak relative performance of gold stocks. Note that the ratios began rising in summer 2008 and then a few months later, gold stocks rocketed higher in nominal terms and relative to Gold. These ratios have been rising for several months and if it continues, we should expect gold stocks to strengthen against Gold.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1308749678.php

[warpig]

John Embry - Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, doesn't think they have it either. I doubt it will ever be confirmed.

 

Embry - Western Central Banks Don’t Have 30,000 Tons of Gold

 

When asked if he was surprised by the admission that the Belgian central bank had leased out 41% of its gold Embry replied, “It caught me a bit by surprise because I have been one of those individuals who has been adamant that the western central banks collectively have leased out or swapped a significant portion of their gold.

 

When they (western central banks) report having 30,000+ tons, that is not true. They may say they still maintain ownership, but they do not have it and they will never get it back. It’s been sold, it’s gone into the market and it’s gone. Ultimately I assume that gets settled up with cash, but for Belgium to admit it the other day, yeah I was taken a bit by surprise because it confirmed my thoughts on the subject.”

 

 

 

^^ You guys are speaking as if the central banks surrender physical control of the gold. I don't think that's ever been confirmed.

[warpig]

Another Exchange Halts Levered OTC Gold And Silver Trading

 

 

 

 

Trading Of Over The Counter Gold And Silver To Be Illegal Beginning July 15

 

The details are too vague to really anticipate how this will play out... Any thoughts?

 

 

 

http://www.zerohedge...ginning-july-15

[Carlton]

^^ Thanks for those links, Warpig.