GOLD

[drbubb]

... from the Silver - Beating B&H thread ...

 

Sometimes, I may ease into an expected market shift through small changes... as a I have been doing recently near SLV-$37.

 

CHART : SLV-chart

EXAMPLE:

The present market with SLV approaching $38, looks like a good selling point, since that is the area where the first post-crash rally peaked. But I may do little here, since I have already done some shifts (buying $37 puts, swapping from SLV into calls) that already puts me in a position to benefit from a slide in SLV, if we see one.

SLV / USDISHARES SILVER TRUST - Big drop

Last [Tick] $35.75[+]

Change $-1.85

% Change -4.92%

 

By only pennies, I missed buying Puts on GLD when it was near its High of the Day, and SLV was already negative.

 

 

Oddly, Gold was levitating yesterday while SPY was down, and CU and SLV were down too.

 

Perhaps China was topping up?

 

(note: Guys, I am not short Gold or Silver. I remain net long - but I am harvesting a bit,

as you can see on the Silver B&H thread.)

[romans holiday]

Indians certainly love their gold. Picked up a bit of casual work picking kiwifruit with an Indian gang for the past few weeks. On the last day, the topic turned to gold. After pulling out all the gold chain necklaces and flashing the gold rings, they stared at me as if to say "well, show us what you got". I pulled out my vial full of gold flakes from the South Island rivers. Expression, priceless.

[Errol]

Pushing for a return to the gold standard - http://www.latimes.com/la-fi-gold-standard-20110603,0,7289166.story

The idea to make the precious metal legal tender has gained currency in more than a dozen state capitals, aided by Tea Party support and other efforts to rein in federal power.

[Twopper]

Can anyone offer a bit of advice to a total novice.

 

I have enjoyed holding my gold but need to sell now (mainly Krugs and a couple of Pandas) can anyone advise the best way to sell, who will offer best price and what sort of commission rates I can expect.

[kkeegan123]

Can anyone offer a bit of advice to a total novice.

 

I have enjoyed holding my gold but need to sell now (mainly Krugs and a couple of Pandas) can anyone advise the best way to sell, who will offer best price and what sort of commission rates I can expect.

 

Hi Twopper,

This recent thread may offer some advice.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14864

 

JL

[pjohnp]

This recent thread may offer some advice.

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14864

 

But I'm not convinced of its accuracy. Hatton, for example, are actually paying 4% below spot for sovereigns. I use Chards, who are currently paying just 2% below.

[frizzers]

Does anyone know of a pound denominated junior gold mining ETF or similar?

 

Is that T1PS fund the only thing out there of this type?

[jinbal]

Does anyone know of a pound denominated junior gold mining ETF or similar?

 

Is that T1PS fund the only thing out there of this type?

 

What I'd like to know is if there is a product similar to GDXJ that is allowed in my ISA (I know some of the individual companies are but I don't have time for dud diligence on each one).

 

I guess I should compare the holdings and management fees of T1PS to GDXJ to see how similar they are?

[carbon junkie]

What I'd like to know is if there is a product similar to GDXJ that is allowed in my ISA (I know some of the individual companies are but I don't have time for dud diligence on each one).

 

I guess I should compare the holdings and management fees of T1PS to GDXJ to see how similar they are?

I spread bet GDX & GDXJ through IGindex as its tax free (yeah I know I know its risky but I do also have a number of long term buy and hold positions).

 

Basically its the only way I know of making tax free money out of those two!

 

I have tripled my spread betting account in the last two years and if I can nail GDX and GDXJ over the next two years I should end up with enough to buy a plot of building land at a knock down price tax free. The rest of my STR fund will be used to invest in new business opportunities once we see alight at the ned of the tunnel.

[sash777]

£945 is out - touching £949. £1000 by the end of June?

[callmejoe]

Has this been posted already?

 

FED lawyer say the FED has NO gold

http://goldnews.com/2011/06/02/fed-lawyer-alvarez-the-federal-reserve-does-not-own-any-gold-at-all/

[Carlton]

Thats right. The Fed owns NO gold. Zero, zip, ziltch.

 

Which is the way it should be. The US Treasury (i.e., the public) owns the gold.

[Errol]

Russia working towards some kind of gold-backed rouble ...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/about-gold-backed-russian-roubles-and-eurobonds%E2%80%A6

[Errol]

Gold Rises To Record £950.81 British Pounds An Ounce - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sterling-and-euro-fall-economic-concerns-gold-rises-record-%C2%A395081-british-pounds-ounce

[alexreeve]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kitco-charged-massive-tax-fraud-scheme-business-viability-question

 

Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme, Business Viability In Question

One of the targeted sites was the downtown Montreal location of Kitco, a major buyer and seller of gold. A note on the floor of its office on Thursday said that “operational constraints” had forced the service counter to close this week." It is unclear if this alleged tax fraud bust means Kitco could be out of business shortly

I'm sure there will be plenty of interest in aquiring the company's talent; Jon Nadler for example...

[azazel]

Gold Rises To Record £950.81 British Pounds An Ounce - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sterling-and-euro-fall-economic-concerns-gold-rises-record-%C2%A395081-british-pounds-ounce

 

I liked these bits

 

 

The Titanic analogy grows increasingly apt. The various major currencies all face real challenges and are like various floors on the Titanic. The massive ship is holed and water is flowing into it, gradually affecting all floors of the boat.

 

Gold represents the lifeboat.

 

When the passengers on the various currency floors(the dollar, euro and pound floors) realize that the ship is going down there will be a scramble to get into the golden lifeboat.

 

Gold and silver bullion remain tiny markets vis-à-vis equity, bond and currency markets and are thus like lifeboats which can only fit so many passengers.

 

As the ship of the international monetary system flounders and denial is replaced by a realization that the ship is going down, investors and savers (retail and institutional) and central banks, will “pile” into gold.

 

Gold bullion remains owned by a tiny percentage of retail and institutional investors and there has not been any “piling into gold” yet - contrary to some sensationalist reporting. The risks posed to all fiat currencies and the real risk of an international monetary crisis will likely lead to a gold mania phase when investors and savers do actually pile into gold.

 

This is when gold will likely go parabolic in price as it did in the 1970’s when it rose 24 times in 9 years.

 

Gold’s gradual rise in recent years is in stark contrast to its parabolic rise in the 1970’s – particularly in 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1979.

 

 

Gold surged by 49.7% in 1972, 73.5% in 1973 and by 60.1% in 1974. In the final phase of the bull market in 1979, gold surged 140% in one year. Gold’s recent rise has been tame in comparison with the animal spirits remaining subdued and media coverage remaining very limited and skeptical – especially in the UK and Ireland.

[50sQuiff]

Sterling gold holding the 50DMA but running out of time in the rising wedge:

 

 

Pattern recognition edition calls for a top on June 10 or so, with a bottom first week in August:

 

 

June 10 working out well so far. Now to remain patient and BTFD in early August.

[DoctorSolar]

June 10 working out well so far. Now to remain patient and BTFD in early August.

 

Nice charts. If I am following the stair stepping pattern correctly then the forecasted August low should be approx £100 higher than the Feb low. The Feb low was £825 so the forthcoming August low would be projected as £925. Thats a tiny 2% drop from here.

 

Is this how you are interpreting it? If not why not?

 

Is it the rising wedge that is of concern?

 

Cheers

[jsr]

Would anyone like to counter this argument?

 

A break of support would give a measured move to 400-420 area.

 

[romans holiday]

Gold bullion remains owned by a tiny percentage of retail and institutional investors and there has not been any piling into gold yet - contrary to some sensationalist reporting. The risks posed to all fiat currencies and the real risk of an international monetary crisis will likely lead to a gold mania phase when investors and savers do actually pile into gold.

 

This is when gold will likely go parabolic in price as it did in the 1970s when it rose 24 times in 9 years.

 

Golds gradual rise in recent years is in stark contrast to its parabolic rise in the 1970s particularly in 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1979.

 

 

Gold surged by 49.7% in 1972, 73.5% in 1973 and by 60.1% in 1974. In the final phase of the bull market in 1979, gold surged 140% in one year. Golds recent rise has been tame in comparison with the animal spirits remaining subdued and media coverage remaining very limited and skeptical especially in the UK and Ireland.

It's possible that gold could explode out of its long term trend. But today could be quite different to the 70s, where there were not so many deflationary pressures. If the trend continues at its present rate of around 20% appreciation anually, then the gold price, in US dollars will be around 1800 next year.... and then around 2160 the following year.

 

Pretty good, don't you think?

 

[electroweak]

Real Gold Bugs

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/-demon-of-underworld-worm-found-in-deep-dark-gold-mines-nature-reports.html

‘Demon of Underworld’ Worm Found in Deep, Dark, Gold Mines, Nature Reports

 

Scientists found four species of roundworms in South African gold mines in the first discovery of multi-celled organisms in the deep, dark and hot areas, Nature reported, citing Tullis Onstott, a geo-microbiologist at Princeton University in New Jersey.

 

One of the worms, found 1.3 kilometers (0.8 miles) below the ground at Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)’s Beatrix mine, was named Halicephalobus mephisto

[Manual labourer]

I liked these bits

 

 

The Titanic analogy grows increasingly apt. The various major currencies all face real challenges and are like various floors on the Titanic. The massive ship is holed and water is flowing into it, gradually affecting all floors of the boat.

 

Gold represents the lifeboat.

 

When the passengers on the various currency floors(the dollar, euro and pound floors) realize that the ship is going down there will be a scramble to get into the golden lifeboat.

 

Gold and silver bullion remain tiny markets vis-à-vis equity, bond and currency markets and are thus like lifeboats which can only fit so many passengers.

 

As the ship of the international monetary system flounders and denial is replaced by a realization that the ship is going down, investors and savers (retail and institutional) and central banks, will “pile” into gold.

 

Gold bullion remains owned by a tiny percentage of retail and institutional investors and there has not been any “piling into gold” yet - contrary to some sensationalist reporting. The risks posed to all fiat currencies and the real risk of an international monetary crisis will likely lead to a gold mania phase when investors and savers do actually pile into gold.

 

This is when gold will likely go parabolic in price as it did in the 1970’s when it rose 24 times in 9 years.

 

Gold’s gradual rise in recent years is in stark contrast to its parabolic rise in the 1970’s – particularly in 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1979.

 

 

Gold surged by 49.7% in 1972, 73.5% in 1973 and by 60.1% in 1974. In the final phase of the bull market in 1979, gold surged 140% in one year. Gold’s recent rise has been tame in comparison with the animal spirits remaining subdued and media coverage remaining very limited and skeptical – especially in the UK and Ireland.

 

Wow!

 

Great Post,

That really does put the recent price rise into perspective!!

Regards

ML.

[Manual labourer]

It's possible that gold could explode out of its long term trend. But today could be quite different to the 70s, where there were not so many deflationary pressures. If the trend continues at its present rate of around 20% appreciation anually, then the gold price, in US dollars will be around 1800 next year.... and then around 2160 the following year.

 

Pretty good, don't you think?

 

 

 

Hi RH,

How are things going ?

 

I am not a well educated man, but how can we have deflationary pressure when we have millions of new people moving from poverty in China and across Asia all spending billions of QE dollars printed by the Fed and pumped into the emerging world markets for goods and commodities?

 

Surely increased demand, and increased buying power created by un-backed delusionary fiat money, chasing a limited supply of oil especially, not create strong worldwide high inflation!

 

The west is like a heroin addict who has a dollar printing press to pay for his bad habit?

 

The dealer cranks the price due to shortage of goods due to increase demand from other new users, the addict prints the Dollars vicious circle till the dealer realizes the dollars are nothing but paper, the oil and goods supplied have been consumed too late.

 

Solution let's rebase and start again with a pre Nixon floated Dollar ?

 

I know I am punching way above my weight here with you intellectual guys, but in simple terms if I owed a dealer a sh*t load of money and I thought I could engineer a hyper inflated solution to my debt problems over a number of years, and I HAD THE KEYS FOR THE PRINT ROOM I would print as much as I could for as long as I could?

 

That’s how I see the west debt addicts and oil addicts, who have gone past the point of redemption, their spending is now out of control?

 

Regards

 

ML.

[Carlton]

Would anyone like to counter this argument?

 

A break of support would give a measured move to 400-420 area.

 

 

That 29% decline followed an inverse head-and-shoulders; that is not the current situation. We could see a significant correction, but the technical set up is very different, to my eyes.

 

I prefer to own gold shares and also have puts on the GDX and/or SPY.

[romans holiday]

Hi RH,

How are things going ?

 

I am not a well educated man, but how can we have deflationary pressure when we have millions of new people moving from poverty in China and across Asia all spending billions of QE dollars printed by the Fed and pumped into the emerging world markets for goods and commodities?

 

Surely increased demand, and increased buying power created by un-backed delusionary fiat money, chasing a limited supply of oil especially, not create strong worldwide high inflation!

 

The west is like a heroin addict who has a dollar printing press to pay for his bad habit?

 

The dealer cranks the price due to shortage of goods due to increase demand from other new users, the addict prints the Dollars vicious circle till the dealer realizes the dollars are nothing but paper, the oil and goods supplied have been consumed too late.

 

Solution let's rebase and start again with a pre Nixon floated Dollar ?

 

I know I am punching way above my weight here with you intellectual guys, but in simple terms if I owed a dealer a sh*t load of money and I thought I could engineer a hyper inflated solution to my debt problems over a number of years, and I HAD THE KEYS FOR THE PRINT ROOM I would print as much as I could for as long as I could?

 

That’s how I see the west debt addicts and oil addicts, who have gone past the point of redemption, their spending is now out of control?

 

Regards

 

ML.

Hi ML, I'm good at the mo enjoying a life of leisure.... though will start manual labouring myself on a long time acquaintance's orchard next week for a month or so. Funds earned will go into a pretty flash metal [gold] detector, which will be put to work in the Central Otago/ Queenstown area this summer. Bring it on.

 

All you say in regard to "printing" I see as part of the equation. Other aspects such as the deflation of asset prices, and then currencies against gold, bring me to a novel view of things which seeks to accomodate both inflationary and deflationary aspects. The crucial point is that "money printing" will not lead simply to more money chasing goods and assets, and hence conventional inflation. Rather, QE adds to the debt burden on currencies/ economies, this in turn weakens currencies against gold [now being effectively monetized]. This at the international level. At the national level, continued debt deflation leads to the possiblity of fiat currencies appreciating against local assets [even as both depreciate against gold... assets doubly so]. Within this context, commodity prices could remain volatile, where they first spike on speculation [inflation expectations], and come off again with moments of deleveraging/ short-covering [deflation expectations].

 

The solution could be a matter of gold slowly and steadily rising to a market price where it effectively "recapitalizes" economies... and where it also becomes more economical to mine.

 

It's all relative, and depends on your perpective. I could [and do] say everything deflates against gold. Or, you could say the price of gold must inflate. But I think it's problematic to say that the price of everything must inflate [hyper-inflation]. This would involve saying asset prices [property/ stocks] etc will "go to the moon" [along with gold] which I think is highly dubious.

 

I think the current trend of these past few years will continue into the future, which makes gold even a good buy here for those that haven't yet bought.