Plastic Elastic Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 BBC news says gold in bubble: BBC - impoverishing the masses since 1922 [...] "He does not expect the price to fall any time soon, largely due to the weak dollar outlook, but warns that, in the long term, the true price of gold must be linked to the cost of its production, which is much less than $1,500 an ounce." ...just playing devil's advocate here: what if they are right? As for a contravening argument, there is a strong link between the prices of gold and crude oil, and the price of crude (i.e. the price of the energy that is needed to dig the stuff out of the ground) should be somehow linked to the price fo gold. Unfortunately, I cannot find a long-term chart to prove it. Can anybody? EDIT: Here it is. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 BBC news says gold in bubble: BBC - impoverishing the masses since 1922 Everyone sell NOW. Get into property, banking stocks and government bonds before it's too late! Most importantly perhaps, Mr Dewan also argues that gold is now a "crowded trade". In other words, too many people own it - not a characteristic savvy investors look for. How can too many people own it? At any given time, different people own different things. The BBC is doing a series about commodity prices - blaming everything from 'speculators' to UFOs (I made that up). No mention of replacing borrowing with printing... Also, according to this chart, 'property' fell almost to 1999 prices in 2008 did I miss something? Who TF reads and believes this kind of crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Comparing apples and oranges. Is gold a "major asset class", or a major currency? This is the major question. If a currency, you'd expect it to appreciate [in a deflation] as asset prices decline. The chart is a little troubling if you see gold as merely an inflation hedge", and then see that other supposed inflation hedges [assets] have declined in price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Scrap Gold & Silver Trailer Ready For Market/Car Boot. Is this a sign of a bubble and mania stage? Particularly the inclusion of: 2x crowd control barriers! http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Scrap-Gold-Silver-Trailer-Ready-Market-Car-Boot-/300555197140?pt=UK_B_I_Business_for_Sale_CV&hash=item45fa7c5ad4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Scrap Gold & Silver Trailer Ready For Market/Car Boot. Is this a sign of a bubble and mania stage? Particularly the inclusion of: 2x crowd control barriers! http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Scrap-Gold-Silver-Trailer-Ready-Market-Car-Boot-/300555197140?pt=UK_B_I_Business_for_Sale_CV&hash=item45fa7c5ad4 Mania stage will see the public BUYING not selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 "He does not expect the price to fall any time soon, largely due to the weak dollar outlook, but warns that, in the long term, the true price of gold must be linked to the cost of its production, which is much less than $1,500 an ounce." ...just playing devil's advocate here: what if they are right? It's the cost of property with gold underneath it that determines marginal new production cost, (EDIT: and how difficult or expensive it is to mine, of course). Expressed differently, if the price of gold goes up, its production cost goes up because it is getting more expensive to buy property for a gold mine (because it contains expensive gold... feedback loop...). Essentially, the problem with that argument is that there is not that much "value" added digging gold out of the ground. It's not like creating silicon chips out of sand. BUT on the other hand, the annual new supply is very limited (and mining still is expensive). EDIT: So, if demand outstrips supply at a given price level, you can't just increase production arbitrarily. Similar with oil. We hear about $5 oil production cost in Saudi Arabia all the time, and all these reserves. Then why is the price over $100? Because the new stuff is very difficult to get to, somewhere many miles deep in the Gulf of Mexico. And why should the Saudis sell for $5 if they can get $110? They have to bribe their own populace after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Mania stage will see the public BUYING not selling. Interesting to see someone is selling on their cash4gold vehicle. I have heard from folks in this line of business that there is next to no gold coming through from the public at the moment. The general feeling is that most have already sold. I imagine it is therefore very difficult to make a living in the cash4gold game and hence this sale but that's pure speculation on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schaublin Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Interesting to see someone is selling on their cash4gold vehicle. I have heard from folks in this line of business that there is next to no gold coming through from the public at the moment. The general feeling is that most have already sold. I imagine it is therefore very difficult to make a living in the cash4gold game and hence this sale but that's pure speculation on my part. Good point but I imagine there is still some gold left to be mined from the public if we see a significant fiat increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted May 15, 2011 Report Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yogi Dewan, chief executive of Hassium Asset Management, agrees. ... "It's absolutely crazy [for the price] to be at $1,500 - we are clearly in bubble territory." What a nutter! Indeed. He's clearly not smarter than the average bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zebbedee Posted May 16, 2011 Report Share Posted May 16, 2011 BBC news says gold in bubble: BBC - impoverishing the masses since 1922 Everyone sell NOW. Get into property, banking stocks and government bonds before it's too late! I was just about to post that, you cannot take an article seriously (other things aside) which purports the all time high to be 2001 , check out thier graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted May 16, 2011 Report Share Posted May 16, 2011 I was just about to post that, you cannot take an article seriously (other things aside) which purports the all time high to be 2001 , check out thier graph Yeah, I thought that. I'm not sure which chart it is but it isn't the correct one. The article has been written by someone who knows nothing about gold and who thinks things are all about to get back to "normal". Notice that the BBC have failed to even run an article about the US debt ceiling which could lead to a default or more likely QE3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erewhon888 Posted May 16, 2011 Report Share Posted May 16, 2011 What a nutter! Yogi Dewan - Founding PartnerYogi is CEO and Founding Partner of Hassium Asset Management LLP. Yogi has thirteen years of professional investment experience. Prior to founding Hassium Yogi spent nine years as an Executive Director in the Private Wealth Management division at Goldman Sachs in London ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 I know this is off topic but I didnt want to start a new thread for it. What do you make of the story about the IMF chief being charged with sex offenses and now locked up without bail? I suspect there's something going on here, with the Americans punishing him for something other than the sex offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malvern hills Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 I know this is off topic but I didnt want to start a new thread for it. What do you make of the story about the IMF chief being charged with sex offenses and now locked up without bail? I suspect there's something going on here, with the Americans punishing him for something other than the sex offense. Well I'm sure the Amerikans could have made it go away if they so wished,for the next French president no less, so they might be up to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 Soros sold $800M gold recently. He must read too much Bubb or Ker. Paulson is holding on to it, I guess he has done his research. Boosting mining companies holdings: Paulson does what I do right now. I hope Soros won't end up in the poor house in his old age. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/soros-sold-most-of-his-gold-etp-holding-during-first-quarter-filing-shows.html Soros Sells Gold ETPs as Paulson Keeps Bet on Bullion Extending Record Run... Soros Fund Management LLC sold 99 percent of its holding in the bullion-backed SPDR Gold Trust, all 5 million shares in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) and cut stakes in NovaGold Resources Inc. and Kinross Gold Corp., a government filing yesterday showed. Paulson & Co. maintained 31.5 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, and boosted holdings of mining companies including Barrick Gold Corp. and Gold Fields Ltd., its filing showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 That is more than 50% off the High ! (I hope and expect to do better than that.) Jim Dines got out at a higher level that that I believe. Sinclair sold there for his clients because this was the debt equilibrium price. This same equilibrium price is over $16,000 as we speak, but you want people to regularly short PMs. Come on, don't sweat the small stuff! Furthermore, you know that Sinclair himself then shaped the top at $850 (he didn't just "call" it, he CREATED it!). He sold his gold there because he "knew" it was overvalued (by over 80% according to his gold-debt model). http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/External_Debt_Equilibrium_Gold_Price_LOG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 DOUBLE POST And he got "his people" out at $400 (? !) That brilliantly illustrates the problem in LISTENING TO GURUS. This one got himself out at TWICE the price his people exited at. But if they were in from the beginning, they made a 10-bagger. He himself took more risk. It only goes to show that he is a responsible individual. In this market, he promised $1,650. We're almost there! Can gold go to $16,000? Sure, no problem. But despite his model possibly telling him this number, he is not talking much about it (except for him saying that his $1,650 figure will most likely look ridiculously low, on which I agree). If you bought gold when Sinclair did (2001?) and hold it through that bull and even long after a potentially parabolic move and sell-off afterwards, you'll most likely will have kept up with inflation (say, move to $16,000, then sell-off to $10,000, you still made a 33-bagger from $300 or so in 2001). That's the whole point. No reason to frantically go short etc. without a core position. Just buy & hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chartered Surveyor Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 DOUBLE POST But if they were in from the beginning, they made a 10-bagger. He himself took more risk. It only goes to show that he is a responsible individual. In this market, he promised $1,650. We're almost there! Can gold go to $16,000? Sure, no problem. But despite his model possibly telling him this number, he is not talking much about it (except for him saying that his $1,650 figure will most likely look ridiculously low, on which I agree). If you bought gold when Sinclair did (2001?) and hold it through that bull and even long after a potentially parabolic move and sell-off afterwards, you'll most likely will have kept up with inflation (say, move to $16,000, then sell-off to $10,000, you still made a 33-bagger from $300 or so in 2001). That's the whole point. No reason to frantically go short etc. without a core position. Just buy & hold. So those without gold (mr Goldfinger) would you still advocate those late to party still buy and hold even now. My own view is yes as your £ or $ would at least keep up with inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 17, 2011 Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yes, it's not over yet... A conservative estimate would suggest it will at least double from here. Everyone who has a good understanding of gold agrees it will go to at least $3K/t.oz. So those without gold (mr Goldfinger) would you still advocate those late to party still buy and hold even now. My own view is yes as your £ or $ would at least keep up with inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2011 So those without gold (mr Goldfinger) would you still advocate those late to party still buy and hold even now. My own view is yes as your £ or $ would at least keep up with inflation. As I've posted a while back, I only put my SIPP money into gold over the past few months, so my answer would be yes. But it is always a good idea to slowly start getting into a new market. Spread it out, average in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted May 18, 2011 Report Share Posted May 18, 2011 1 Kilo Gold Futures Start Trading On Hong Kong Merc http://www.zerohedge.com/article/1-kilo-gold-futures-start-trading-hong-kong-merc Lets see now how the Comex hikes its gold margins with impunity if it has competition that keeps margins "artificially" low, and provides disgruntled Comex clients with an alternative venue that accepts far less cash collateral to trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted May 18, 2011 Report Share Posted May 18, 2011 Bit quite on the gold thread these days. Boring old gold plodding along,,,, 20% odd appreciation annually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus Posted May 18, 2011 Report Share Posted May 18, 2011 Gold futures are now being traded on HKMEX. Good news for competition and free markets. Bad news for the CME and the dollar. When commodity futures are traded in RMB the dollar's reserve currency status is gone. A gift to the east from the CME. http://www.hkmerc.com/en/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted May 19, 2011 Report Share Posted May 19, 2011 Finally the cartel gold distraction method is starting to backfire as holders swap ETF's to physical bars. Gold investors choose bars over ETFs in Q1 - WGC Investors forsook gold exchange traded funds in the first quarter in favour of coins and bars, the World Gold Council said, with buying of physical investment products helping lift overall bullion demand by 11 percent. The WGC said ETFs recorded their first net quarterly outflow since mid-2007 in the first three months of the year, with overall holdings of the products -- which issue securities backed by physical gold -- falling by 55.9 tonnes. Total coin and bar demand rose by 52 percent or 125.5 tonnes to 366.4 tonnes in the first quarter. Gold investment increased by 26 percent in tonnage terms to 310.5 tonnes, helping raise total bullion demand to 981.3 tonnes from 881 tonnes. Eily Ong, research manager for the industry-funded WGC, said she expected this trend to persist throughout the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2011 Chinese investors bought almost 100 tonnes in the first quarter. More than anyone else (incl. India). http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,763729,00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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