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Loving this steady stream of bearish articles HG. Lets dig a little deeper in to the actual content...

 

I still expect a move to $1260 for gold. We have made further progress towards my target this week and I have bought all the way down.

 

So have I 834, 824 and right in to the most recent low...

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Following on from the US$43 gold per person per day with a million signups at ICBC, gold is so accessible to your average person in China (and Hong Kong) through all the banks:

 

http://www.icbc.com.cn/icbc/personal%20ban...gold%20trading/

 

Compare that to trying to buy gold in a Western high-street bank...

 

yebut isnt that paper? who has the physical to back it?

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G0ldfinger you are going to love this from Prechter's January newsletter. To summarise: a 6 year bear market in gold taking us all the way back to $35 per oz.

 

the recent price above $1400/oz. may have provided us a historic opportunity on the short side

 

..........

 

The November 10 Interim Report recommended that speculators sell gold short above $1400 with a stop at

$1490. Now that gold has slipped $90, we can lower the stop to $1399, which guarantees no loss on the position.

Gold and silver still might jump again to meet their resistance lines a second time; it’s happened before. But if we

don’t get stopped out, I expect to hold this position for six years.

 

.........

 

Where are the metals going? If I am right about deflation, the metals will fall further than anyone imagines.

Gold has five waves up since 1932 and is therefore facing a correction of that entire advance.

 

Excerpts from a post at: http://24knews.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t...art=1180#p10340

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He's such a waste of bandwidth.

A different tale (and I am not hoping for a collapsing gold price) but back in 1989 some people said the same thing about detractors of the Nikkei bubble. Subsequently it went from 39000 to 7400 recently causing a few tears.

Istill think it is too early to call the GrandSupercycle a load of old cobblers. Sure, Prechter looks like a dunce right now but how that could turn on a Dime and he be a "genius" if the game goes his way. I'll give his reputation another 12 months, markets cam stay irrational etcetera...

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Recognising a bubble is relatively trivial, we all saw the housing bubble from 2005 onwards.

 

I can't remember how many times his predictions have failed over the last couple of years, but it's more than 3. I got tired of listening to him to be honest.

 

A different tale (and I am not hoping for a collapsing gold price) but back in 1989 some people said the same thing about detractors of the Nikkei bubble. Subsequently it went from 39000 to 7400 recently causing a few tears.

Istill think it is too early to call the GrandSupercycle a load of old cobblers. Sure, Prechter looks like a dunce right now but how that could turn on a Dime and he be a "genius" if the game goes his way. I'll give his reputation another 12 months, markets cam stay irrational etcetera...

 

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Sorry for not being PC, but IMO this is borderline retarded.

I think you are being too kind to the bloke.

 

The units he is measuring his gold price in are simply not comparable to the units in 1932 only the name is the same.

 

I really wish these fools would stop looking at nominal charts and start looking at things in real terms.

 

I have made the above point time and time again to defationists and get ignored every time simply because they do not have an answer.

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Recognising a bubble is relatively trivial, we all saw the housing bubble from 2005 onwards.

 

I can't remember how many times his predictions have failed over the last couple of years, but it's more than 3. I got tired of listening to him to be honest.

''Time has eluded me'' R Prechter. There's one statement you can agree with Prechter on! ''EW is more of an art than a science''-Dr Bubb.

 

I do sometimes wonder why they try to time the markets when they KNOW that timing is the hardest to pin down. But they do! And folks (like many on here) serve it back to them with a vengeance.

I still maintain though that the body of work will be borne out (here we go) EVENTUALLY. (not sure on physical 'metals' though!) His work is by no means 'retarded'...though some predictions at certain stages of the wave (wave 2-like now) may seem so.

 

If it was just one man making silly predictions, then I could see the 'delusion' and recognize it for what it was. But it isn't one nutter. There are many clever, experienced minds out there and they are not all a bunch of nutters.

 

Bearing in mind all that has been done in this wave 2-the most devious of waves btw-by the governments and CB's of the world is it any surprise that the culminating topping process is taking excruciatingly long to fruit?...meanwhile sucking in everyone along the way. Be patient and mindful of the devastation that may come to pass when/if this volcano erupts. EW'ers would have you believe that the eruption will come when everyone is satisfied that it won't. Bang. Until then it is simply 'jam tomorrow'.

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This is the problem with EW fans, they're not wrong when their timescales slip, they're just not right yet... In my book unless they can tell me when something's going to happen, I can't work with it, it's a big fat fail.

 

''Time has eluded me'' R Prechter. There's one statement you can agree with Prechter on! ''EW is more of an art than a science''-Dr Bubb.

 

I do sometimes wonder why they try to time the markets when they KNOW that timing is the hardest to pin down. But they do! And folks (like many on here) serve it back to them with a vengeance.

I still maintain though that the body of work will be borne out (here we go) EVENTUALLY. (not sure on physical 'metals' though!) His work is by no means 'retarded'...though some predictions at certain stages of the wave (wave 2-like now) may seem so.

 

If it was just one man making silly predictions, then I could see the 'delusion' and recognize it for what it was. But it isn't one nutter. There are many clever, experienced minds out there and they are not all a bunch of nutters.

 

Bearing in mind all that has been done in this wave 2-the most devious of waves btw-by the governments and CB's of the world is it any surprise that the culminating topping process is taking excruciatingly long to fruit?...meanwhile sucking in everyone along the way. Be patient and mindful of the devastation that may come to pass when/if this volcano erupts. EW'ers would have you believe that the eruption will come when everyone is satisfied that it won't. Bang. Until then it is simply 'jam tomorrow'.

 

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This is the problem with EW fans, they're not wrong when their timescales slip, they're just not right yet... In my book unless they can tell me when something's going to happen, I can't work with it, it's a big fat fail.

Well they had it right in 2008 on the crash and 2009 on the bounce. Now they are saying we are 'topping' and then have another fall. (since may 2010). I think lots of people have been 'wrong' in 2010.

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We all knew it would crash in 2008 we watched it unfold in Q4 2007. Did Prechter predict the bounce at the right level/time in 2009 (March from memory)? I don't specifically recall him predicting the government would step in to save the banking system and I don't recall him suggesting the FED would support the treasury market either... So if he's expecting a crash, then he's saying QE3 won't happen. I think it will.

 

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!

 

Well they had it right in 2008 on the crash and 2009 on the bounce. Now they are saying we are 'topping' and then have another fall. (since may 2010). I think lots of people have been 'wrong' in 2010.

 

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We all knew it would crash in 2008 we watched it unfold in Q4 2007. Did Prechter predict the bounce at the right level/time in 2009 (March from memory)? I don't specifically recall him predicting the government would step in to save the banking system and I don't recall him suggesting the FED would support the treasury market either... So if he's expecting a crash, then he's saying QE3 won't happen. I think it will.

 

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!

End of February he said the Dow would go back to 10,000. I think you are right though. He did not expect the Fed to go as far as it has. But it has. And he expected the crash to start in 2010. It didn't. But he still thinks the Fed will be stopped eventually-or 'overwhelmed' as he says.

 

''we'll see what happens'' as he is fond of saying.

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Well the DJIA hit 10,000 in Oct 2009, that was a long time ago. People that can't admit they're wrong really wind me up, he's one of them. He's basically right, it will all come crashing down at some point, but the FED won't go down without a fight and they will print as much as they need before they're overwhelmed. He should concede `not being right yet` is not being right. Timing is everything when it comes to investments.

 

End of February he said the Dow would go back to 10,000. I think you are right though. He did not expect the Fed to go as far as it has. But it has. And he expected the crash to start in 2010. It didn't. But he still thinks the Fed will be stopped eventually-or 'overwhelmed' as he says.

 

''we'll see what happens'' as he is fond of saying.

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I think you are right though. He did not expect the Fed to go as far as it has. But it has.

All he had to do was read helicopter Bens various diatribes over the years and he would not have made such a fundamental mistake.

 

Epic fail right there IMO but he compounds it by not taking into account the supply of units he measures in.

 

BTW in real terms as we all know the Dow never did much of a dead cat bounce.

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... But he still thinks the Fed will be stopped eventually-or 'overwhelmed' as he says. ...

:rolleyes: I'd rather believe in the Zulauf scenario than in the Fed being "overwhelmed" by some mysterious dark force.

 

EDIT: The only real scenario that could create a sharp gold sell-off would be Palin getting elected 2012 and Ron Paul being made Fed governor. I might start an own thread on this scenario (better don't laugh, it MIGHT happen).

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from fwiw over at 24K

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-come...on-fund-sell-it

 

Perhaps the most stunning example of what may be in store for asset managers and pension funds (and possibly retail holders) who dare to challenge central bank monetary authority comes from the Netherlands, where we have just witnessed the 21st century equivalent of Executive Order 6102. The story in a nutshell (and as translated loosely from the primary source presented below): the glassworkers pension fund (SPVG) was ordered by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB, or the equivalent of the Dutch central bank), that it has to sell the bulk of its gold assets. After the SPVG refused to comply with the order, the DNB went to court and the decision has come out, siding with the central bank, ordering the SPVG to sell the required gold within two months. The pension fund, which invests for 1142 employees, in late 2009 had gold bars worth 34.6 million euros, or about 1400 kilograms. The total fund assets amounted to 288 million euros at that time. The DNB argued gold is a commodity and holding 13 percent was overweight in comparison to the 2.7% average that pension funds are invested in commodities. DNB has found that such a large proportion of gold is inconsistent with the interests of the participants. SPVG sees gold as a medium of exchange, such as euros, but DNB believes that the price of gold fluctuates too much for it to be classified as an investment. Translation of the translation: the central bank has now directly ordered a fund how to allocate its gold assets, because it explicitly disagreed with the fund's statement that gold is money, claiming instead that it is nothing but a very volatile commodity. Very soon no pension funds in the Netherlands will be allowed to hold any amount of gold more than the merely nominal. This latest gold confiscation equivalent event is most certainly coming to a banana republic near you.
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