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Huh..............

 

It is my understanding any capital gains made on investments held in an ISA are exempt from capital gains tax and

the income from ISA investments is exempt from income tax, however the tax credits on any dividends are not reclaimable.

ISA's seem a reasonable way to buy shares or ETF's.

 

Where does the 28% loss come from ?

 

EDIT :- Don't get me worng, buying soverigns has big advantages as well !

 

yes fair enough i'm sure your right on this. but your limited to how much you can invest into an isa each year. so if you have a reasonable amount to invest then you can't.. and isa's just trap you into the "owning paper" road. Once you build up an ISA share fund you'll never want to take money out of it because it takes you so long to build it up again. I wouldn't recomend paper anything. physical only, thats my destiny

 

The 28% loss i'm talking about is on shares bought outside the isa scheme

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Huh..............

 

It is my understanding any capital gains made on investments held in an ISA are exempt from capital gains tax and

the income from ISA investments is exempt from income tax, however the tax credits on any dividends are not reclaimable.

ISA's seem a reasonable way to buy shares or ETF's.

 

Where does the 28% loss come from ?

 

EDIT :- Don't get me worng, buying soverigns has big advantages as well !

 

An ISA is tax free, no CGT to pay on any profit, yearly limit is restrictive but with good gains you can keep it all shielded.

 

SafeBetter

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Gold Bug Alert:

 

Chartists infest gold market

 

Published: February 3 2011 23:40 | Last updated: February 3 2011 23:40

 

Psychologists have a rich seam in the overlap between gold bugs, chartists and conspiracy theorists. That overlap is causing problems right now for many hard-core gold investors. Their tendency to believe in the power of charts to predict prices – technical analysis, as its followers call it – suggests the gold price should fall.

 

Supposedly one of the most powerful signs that prices will fall is a “triple top”, three equal price spikes. This pattern appeared for gold last month, and was followed last week by another chartist sell signal: the 30-day moving average price dropped below the 50-day average. When this happened a year ago, gold fell $75.

 

The view of believers in efficient markets was neatly summed up by Burton Malkiel in A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Reading charts, he said, was no better than alchemy.

 

If the chartists are right, gold should go down another 3 per cent, to reach the 200-day moving average: the “support level”. If that is broken, gold can keep dropping; if it holds, then the charts will suggest the decade-long gold bull market remains in place.

 

The more investors believe in charts, the better they will work – hence the focus on obscure patterns in foreign exchange, where there are no short-term fundamentals. The gold market, too, is infested with chartists. They must be hoping the charts are wrong.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fca334de-2fe5-11...l#axzz1D1cOWBM2

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I trust you are selling then?

 

Gold Bug Alert:

 

Chartists infest gold market

 

Published: February 3 2011 23:40 | Last updated: February 3 2011 23:40

 

Psychologists have a rich seam in the overlap between gold bugs, chartists and conspiracy theorists. That overlap is causing problems right now for many hard-core gold investors. Their tendency to believe in the power of charts to predict prices – technical analysis, as its followers call it – suggests the gold price should fall.

 

Supposedly one of the most powerful signs that prices will fall is a “triple top”, three equal price spikes. This pattern appeared for gold last month, and was followed last week by another chartist sell signal: the 30-day moving average price dropped below the 50-day average. When this happened a year ago, gold fell $75.

 

The view of believers in efficient markets was neatly summed up by Burton Malkiel in A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Reading charts, he said, was no better than alchemy.

 

If the chartists are right, gold should go down another 3 per cent, to reach the 200-day moving average: the “support level”. If that is broken, gold can keep dropping; if it holds, then the charts will suggest the decade-long gold bull market remains in place.

 

The more investors believe in charts, the better they will work – hence the focus on obscure patterns in foreign exchange, where there are no short-term fundamentals. The gold market, too, is infested with chartists. They must be hoping the charts are wrong.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fca334de-2fe5-11...l#axzz1D1cOWBM2

 

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You have been painting a pessimistic picture with all of the negative G&S articles recently, I assumed you thought the price would fall further.

The bearish articles might considered by some to be bullish and vice versa. Very much depends on the reader. I think the price could fall further as more of the weaker hands are finally shaken out.

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Gold Forecast $3,424 and Silver $86.50 in January 2011

 

Of course this never happened.

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21126.html

 

"Most of mainstream macroeconomics is dead. It's a zombie. They don't know they're dead yet, but they're dead." ~ L. Randall Wray, Bloomberg Businessweek, 17 January 2011.

 

Sums up all the chatter on the internet by so called experts.

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You don't think there will be mania just before the hyperinflation starts as it becomes more and more obvious what is going to happen, I do. True in the final stages of hyperinflation you won't be able to buy it, but I think the mania will start before then.

 

 

Hi Pixel,

 

Hyperinflation has already started. And we are at the moment of the mainstream mania phase. Bear with me.

 

Credibility Inflation

First of all I would like to clear up probably the most common misconception about hyperinflation. What most people believe is that massive printing of base money (new cash) leads to hyperinflation. No, it's the other way around. Hyperinflation leads to the massive printing of base money (new cash).

 

 

Hyperinflation, in most people minds, conjures images of trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes. But this image is simply the government's reflexive response to the onset of hyperinflation, which is actually the loss of confidence in the currency. First comes the loss of confidence (hyperinflation), then, and only then, comes the massive printing to keep the government and its obligations afloat.

 

And what sets the stage for hyperinflation is a period of high credibility inflation followed by the loss of credibility. During our period of high credibility inflation the dollar was invisibly hyperinflated in a near-monetary sense. This has already happened. We are already there.

 

When I say the dollar has already hyperinflated in a near-monetary sense, I am talking about the number of dollars people, entities and even foreign nations think they have in reserve. Not in a shoebox, but in contractual promises of dollars to be delivered more or less on demand by somebody else. Claims denominated in dollars. This is how the vast majority of "dollars" are held; as promises to deliver more dollars. And this is why they are held this way. Because of the more in "more dollars." "Let me spend your dollars today and I will give you more dollars tomorrow!"

 

We don't need the helicopter drop to spark hyperinflation. Zimbabwe didn't have billion dollar notes when hyperinflation started. They only had Z$100 notes just like the US. The million and billion dollar notes followed the onset of confidence collapse as the government printed to survive.

 

ZimbabweExchangeRate.jpg

 

There wont be any mania phase per se in physical gold. The mania phase we encouter will be called freegold or Reference Point Gold as it is nowdays called.

 

The credit (or debt) money is deflating and the fed is making this good by printing thus contributing to the base money. Base money is the cause of hyperinflation. Not credit (debt) money. And there is more base money now.

 

Presently the debt money to GDP ratio is 355%.

 

Total-Credit-Market-Debt-to-GDP.jpg

 

When that is monetised, we will see the notes of larger denomination.

 

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Do you know of any retrospectve tax laws? The current law is that any gold that is UK currency at the time of sale or purchase (i.e sovs or brits) is exempt from CGT at the point of sale. Would have to be very retrospective to catch people who already have those coins in their possession. Do you see that change happening realistically ?

 

Do you know of any retrospectve tax laws?
YES

 

CGT is payable on the sale of the asset if any equity is realised in the transaction.So if you purchase anything there is never any liability for CGT on the 'purchaser' the CGT is only ever realised on the subsequent sale.So if you ALREADY HAVE COINS IN YOUR POSESSION you will not have needed to consider CGT on your purchase.Now my point is EVEN if you 'purchased 'your coins which under current legislation are CGT exempt and you purchased them with the fact/knowledge/benefit that the NO CGT on the potential subsequent sale offered you,it would be rather annoying to find that the legislation had been changed to remove the exemption of CGT from the coins.But you would argue that you had 'purchased' the coins when the legislation stated that they were CGT exempt but they then RETROSPECTIVELY apply that it does'nt make any difference and you will have to pay the CGT anyway.

 

YES I SEE THIS CHANGE AS ALMOST GURANTEED NEVER MIND REALISTIC.

 

 

Have a listen to Aaron Russo's direct experience with retrospective (retroactive) tax legislation with regards to his Gold and silver dealings.

Listen from 11.22

From:

 

 

This is the type of sleight of hand/deception that is/will be used with reference to the above.

 

From:

 

Another side effect from ObamaCare exposed. Not only was ObamaCare sold on falsehoods and outright lies, now we learn, after the bill was signed into law, that there is a secret gold coin tax buried in the thousand of pages health care law.

 

The tax comes in an obscure section of the tax code that deals with purchases by self-employed people and small businesses.

 

Starting Jan. 1, 2012, small businesses and self-employed people will have to issue 1099 forms, which are used to track and report the miscellaneous income associated with services rendered by independent contractors or self-employed individuals, for every vendor with whom they do more than $600 business in a calendar year.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8496921.stm

 

Will retrospective taxes affect us all?

 

The Revenue has just won a landmark court case which allowed the backdating of tax law.

 

New legislation normally applies to the future, not the past.

 

 

But the case of Robert Huitson may change all that.

 

In 2001 Mr Huitson began using an artificial scheme to reduce his taxes.

 

He thought the scheme was legal, and so did his advisers.

 

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) did not agree.

 

So far, so commonplace: HMRC frequently disagrees with taxpayers.

 

If these disputes cannot be settled, both parties often end up in court, where each side puts forward their argument.

 

Sometimes HMRC wins, sometimes the taxpayer..............................................................

 

But the Huitson case is nevertheless worrying.

 

Is it the thin end of a very dangerous wedge, allowing HMRC to get its own way without bothering to argue its case in the courts?

 

Or will retrospection be used only exceptionally, most commonly in response to artificial tax planning schemes?

 

What is certain is that backdating legislation is a cheap, quick and certain way of closing a tax loophole, and it may be irresistibly tempting for the government to use the same method again.

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YES

 

This is the type of sleight of hand/deception that is/will be used with reference to the above.

 

From:

 

Another side effect from ObamaCare exposed. Not only was ObamaCare sold on falsehoods and outright lies, now we learn, after the bill was signed into law, that there is a secret gold coin tax buried in the thousand of pages health care law.

 

The tax comes in an obscure section of the tax code that deals with purchases by self-employed people and small businesses.

It was the opponents of "ObamaCare" that did most of the lying, talking about death panels and such.

 

Also, there is no new coin tax in the Act. The Act contains a new reporting requirement; the tax is not new, you were obliged to (self)report and pay the tax previously.

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Understanding Derivatives

 

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit . She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

 

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit .

 

By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively.

 

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

 

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These securities then are bundled and traded on international securities markets.

 

Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.

 

One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.

 

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.

 

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

 

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Heidi's bar.

 

Now do you understand?

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Good find. They clearly anticipate tight supply in the future.

 

Jim Willie said on his recent podcast, that the Chinese were offering to financially assist the "PIIGS" EU states using gold as collateral. That's a very covert way of hoovering up remaining supply if you ask me...

 

Given the current monetary, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk gold is an attractive alternative to debt, equities or other paper assets as collateral.

 

JP Morgan announced today that from now on they will accept physical gold bullion as collateral.

 

They will not accept ETF trust gold as collateral.

 

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/re...k0DDATlX7E_4%3D

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$2,000 Gold And 10 More Surprising Predictions From Credit Suisse

 

You're not going to make money betting on the consensus. So if you're looking for contrarian investments, Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite has picked out 11 economic events that are more likely than anyone thinks.

 

 

Surprise scenarios include $2,000 gold by year-end. Several factors support this "surprise" including:

Gold goes up when real Fed fund rates are negative -- and they are

Excess leverage leads to money printing or default

China and Japan haven't started buying gold yet

Gold does not display characteristics of a bubble

The inflation-adjusted gold price is still well-below peak

 

Credit Suisse is keeping an official target of $1,500 for gold, but it admits that these factors could drive a major surprise to the upside.

 

Garthwaite also names a booming U.S. economy as a viable scenario. Here are the rest of the surprises:

 

chart.gif

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Perhaps this should be in the Fringe forum but still....

 

I've just listened to Cliff High from halfpasthuman(dot)com. For those who don't know, he's the creator of a web-crawling software that scans the internet for specific liguistics to try and make a prediction about the future. Anyways, he recently stated that the global OTC derivatives system will DEFINATELY blow-up and the cause of this will be gold. This will involve some institution (not necesarily a bank) failing to deliver gold on demand to some very very influential clients. Could be a sovereign state or a billionare, he didn't say. This will lead to a mass panic and a run on all paper within hours. In fact it will happen so fast that it will be too late to the average joe to buy some krugs at his/her local coin dealer. Also this will happen in London, not in New York (could be LBMA?). Cliff didn't give a specific dates but he said it will come.

 

Just though I'd just throw it out there. Interesting rumours and all that. Ties in with what Jim Willie has been saying for a while now.

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The inflation-adjusted gold price is still well-below peak

 

Now this has been the case since 1980!!

 

Therefore Gold is not really a very good hedge against inflation is it?

if it was then The inflation-adjusted gold price would be well above peak.

 

In the past I was always told that buy gold as a hedge against inflation but really it has not proved to be that good in that regard.

 

 

There are lots of other reasons why buying gold is a good idea. but it hasn't performed well as an inflation hedge has it?

 

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The inflation-adjusted gold price is still well-below peak

 

Now this has been the case since 1980!!

 

Therefore Gold is not really a very good hedge against inflation is it?

if it was then The inflation-adjusted gold price would be well above peak.

 

In the past I was always told that buy gold as a hedge against inflation but really it has not proved to be that good in that regard.

 

There are lots of other reasons why buying gold is a good idea. but it hasn't performed well as an inflation hedge has it?

For the 20 year period between 1980 and 2000, no. However, this time period seems to be an anomaly in gold's 4000+ years of history.

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Think of it as a barometer for inflation, i.e. gold highlights problems with inflated currencies. You also have to remember that the price of gold [has|is] `managed` (cough, cough). Gold does perform under inflation, but it performs much better under a deflationary environment and in my opinion is the best `all round` store of value for average investors.

 

The inflation-adjusted gold price is still well-below peak

 

Now this has been the case since 1980!!

 

Therefore Gold is not really a very good hedge against inflation is it?

if it was then The inflation-adjusted gold price would be well above peak.

 

In the past I was always told that buy gold as a hedge against inflation but really it has not proved to be that good in that regard.

 

 

There are lots of other reasons why buying gold is a good idea. but it hasn't performed well as an inflation hedge has it?

 

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The point is that gold is one of the few goods that you can store eternally (won't go bad, won't default). For instance, wheat or oil would possibly also be a good inflation hedge (always on average, of course), but then storing them is a problem. As for stocks, they can default on you, but they're not too bad either on average I suppose. The important thing is to be in the right thing at the right time.

 

DJIA-Gold-Ratio_LOG_GUESS.png

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Which date do you estimate for that DJIA-Gold ratio bottom?

Looks like about 2015/16 to me, from your chart.

Our proprietary stochastic model indicates a 90% probability for a bottom in the interval 2015-2020. More subjectively, I think that the descending parts of the cycle are always the steepest, so 2015 may be a good guess.

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