GOLD

[surfdude]

Getting there. Bull market is still young. But beware the correction.

 

CGNAO, you were right on cue with your comments. Gold topped at around US$1430 and then had a dramatic drop - Now trading around US$1390 in HK trading. How did you know it was coming?

[electroweak]

great find Carlton.

Meanwhile GLD still continues to trade at a discount to real gold ($GOLD) - this ratio should be at 0.1

I remember Catherine Austin-Fitts mentioned this as the market perhaps pricing in a problem with GLD.

 

[drbubb]

CGNAO, you were right on cue with your comments.

Gold topped at around US$1430 and then had a dramatic drop - Now trading around US$1390 in HK trading. How did you know it was coming?

Also take a look at these recent comments on DrBubb's Diary about the possible Double Top & the slowdown

(1)

WARNING : Possible Bull Trap ?

(There are too many complacent bulls about these days - Just look at the toppy sentiment readings. Ratio: 2.54 at 11/30 before JUMP.)

 

Potential "Double Tops" all over, as volume falters late last week, and BigMo (21d) is in/or near the "pause" mode.

 

Let's look around at BigMo, and the Flow (8d):

(When looking at these charts, I suggest you pay particular attention to whether BigMo-21d.Ma is headed up, flat, or pointing down. And also to whether the Flow/8dMA is above or below the 21dMA, supporting the BigMo trend or not. To me, many of these stocks look vulnerable, and a sudden drop from here would quickly put them into the Bearish category. Last week's JUMP helped them to keep treading water, but a slide this coming week, would undermine that blimp up. On the otehr hand, if stocks power ahead over the next few days, they will soon be in confirmed uptrends again.)

 

SPY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -: QQQ

.

GLD - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -: GDX

.

(2)

THE STALL continues as volume dries up at the possible Double Top

 

Sept

1 / 108.46 : +3.15, +2.99% : 267.8mn / vix-23,89 -2.13 / dxy- 82.52 -0.68 / tlt-106.00 -1.44

2 / 109.47 : +1.01, +0.93% : 156.1mn / vix-23.19 -0.70 / dxy- 82.48 -0.04 / tlt-104.88 -1.12

3 / 110.89 : +1.41. +1.29% : 212.2mn / vix-21.31 -1.88 / dxy- 82.10 -0.38 / tlt-103.58 -1.30

======= : +5.57, +5.21% : 636.1mn / vix-21.31 -4.71 / dxy- 82.10 -1.20 / tlt-103.58 -3.86

 

Dec

1 / 121.01 : +2,52, +2.13% : 220.7mn / vix-21.36 -2.18 / dxy- 80.72 -0.48 / tlt- 95.89 -2.52

2 / 122.56 : +1.55, +1,28% : 189.1mn / vix-19.39 -1.97 / dxy- 80.28 -0.44 / tlt- 95.64 -0.25

3 / 122.89 : +0.33, +0.27% : 151.2mn / vix-18.01 -1.38 / dxy- 79.15 -0.93 / tlt- 94.89 -0.75

======= : +4.49 , +3.68% : 560.0mn / vix-18.02 -5.53 / dxy- 79.15 -1.85 / tlt- 94.89 -3.52

 

6/ 122.76 : - 0.13, - 0.11% : 102.9mn / vix-18.02 +0.01 / dxy- 79.72 +0.15 / tlt- 96.23 +1.34

 

Points:

+ 103million share volume is one of the lowest of the year

+ Bonds rose: TLT-96.23 +1.34, on Bernanke's suggestion that he might need to launch QE3, but this did not help stocks

 

The Bulls are running out of ammunition, it seems to me.

(3)

David White on TFNN is saying that we may be seeing short-covering, and if that is what all the buying is, it should "blow-itself off" before noon, and the market will close at below SPX-1227, or even negative on the day. He thinks we should know if that scenario is possible by midday

==

D., I may have plenty of cash, but I will invest a decent portion of that in tax loss selling stocks, if they hit my targets

 

Personally, I have record cash holdings now, and would be ready, if we see a big drop.

 

So Pigs might get slaughted in a big down move for Gold and/or stocks

[azazel]

Actually it was 907.33

 

 

I wish you would post more stuff like you used to. Id like to know what you think about the future of currencies, the future of the kingdoms of the earth, and the future of mankind.

[drbubb]

Looks like cgnao got it right again. Gold goes to £908 after cgnao predicts it in september 2009 and he then warns of a correction. The following day gold drops....

My hat off to Cgnao for such an excellent call in his chart from Sept. 6th

[romans holiday]

This may be good to see from a gold-holder's perspective, indicating that gold remains a more conservative (and possibly safer) asset than the commodities.

This is why I'm sitting on gold... getting more conservative in my middle ages....

 

I'd add that from another angle it may prove to be the safest currency in the end.

[G0ldfinger]

So, cg comes out of the (South American?) woodworks and predicts a correction.

 

Gold sells off 2%. Yes, 2%, not 5%, 10%, or 15%, as we have seen it selling off in one single day before. A meaning ful correction of any kind is not yet to be seen.

 

Then he gets a movie star like admiration for this fantastic "call".

 

Guys, are you all brainwashed? My guess is cg would say "yes"! :lol:

[Carlton]

This is why I'm sitting on gold... getting more conservative in my middle ages....

 

I'd add that from another angle it may prove to be the safest currency in the end.

 

Darryl Guppy seems to somewhat agree with you:

 

The linkage between the U.S. dollar and gold has been weakened. Dollar down, gold up is not longer a simple relationship equation so traders need to trade each of these based on the trend analysis of the individual instruments – gold or the dollar. The only constant is that trend volatility is king so traders must watch this behavior in each market. Do this and it’s a good Christmas present just like the free Christmas hamper we have on offer for all readers of this column.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40561096

 

[alexreeve]

So, cg comes out of the (South American?) woodworks and predicts a correction.

 

Gold sells off 2%. Yes, 2%, not 5%, 10%, or 15%, as we have seen it selling off in one single day before. A meaning ful correction of any kind is not yet to be seen.

 

Then he gets a movie star like admiration for this fantastic "call".

 

Guys, are you all brainwashed? My guess is cg would say "yes"! :lol:

I was thinking the same thing. There have been myriad corrections bigger than this in the last 15 months since that call was made. I hope it does prove to be an interim top so I can buy sovs at sub £200 again, and fully acknowledge it might. Let's wait a week or three and see whether this was in fact a significant top, before declaring this the call of 2009?

 

Having said all that, nice to see CGNAO posting again.

[azazel]

So, cg comes out of the (South American?) woodworks and predicts a correction.

 

Gold sells off 2%. Yes, 2%, not 5%, 10%, or 15%, as we have seen it selling off in one single day before. A meaning ful correction of any kind is not yet to be seen.

 

Then he gets a movie star like admiration for this fantastic "call".

 

Guys, are you all brainwashed? My guess is cg would say "yes"! :lol:

 

Oh stop it. I was being polite to cgnao as he rarely comes out of his bunker and I wanted him to know I still love him. If the falls in price continue, which could take some weeks, then cgnao would have been absolutely spot on. Im just giving him credit for his call to £908 as resistance. Besides, compared to realistbears $300 prediction, I think cgnao's prediction is worthy of movie star admiration. You will get your movie star admiration when houses are 50 ounces so stop being all jealous

[G0ldfinger]

... You will get your movie star admiration when houses are 50 ounces so stop being all jealous

Please, can I have it already at 100 oz?

[warpig]

Ahh that's lovely. We should have more CIGA love around here...

 

I wanted him to know I still love him.

[romans holiday]

[alexreeve]

History may not repeat but might it rhyme?

[warpig]

[warpig]

I think this correction is nearly complete.

 

[G0ldfinger]

I think this correction is nearly complete.

Nohooo! Please! What is this "correction" b0110cks?! Where are the good old 30% hammer days? I hear my SIPP will be through this week or next week. I need cheaper gold soon.

[G0ldfinger]

Perfect bounce exactly back from the line.

 

[warpig]

:lol:

 

Nohooo! Please! What is this "correction" b0110cks?!

 

[Pixel8r]

Perfect bounce exactly back from the line.

We will be through it soon enough.

 

 

[fitkid]

We will be through it soon enough.

Get of your high horse pixel8r its got wooden wheels. :lol:

[Carlton]

Perfect bounce exactly back from the line.

 

 

Does this plot indicate that a significant period (1yr?) of consolidation/correction is in order?

 

I'm not suggesting, just asking about how you interpret this plot.

[jinbal]

Does this plot indicate that a significant period (1yr?) of consolidation/correction is in order?

 

I'm not suggesting, just asking about how you interpret this plot.

 

 

To me, if the pattern repeats it would come back to retest the red circled area/the midway point of the move.

[romans holiday]

[G0ldfinger]

To me, if the pattern repeats it would come back to retest the red circled area/the midway point of the move.

If the pattern repeats, yes, or maybe a slightly higher region would be retested. Will the pattern repeat? Not so sure. The pattern can't go on forever.