GOLD

[alexreeve]

I think the comments make more sense than the article and its author

Whether your savings/investments/entitlements are destroyed by hyperinflation, stagflation or deflationary collapse is debateable. But if the promises cannot be met then the end result is still that you get stiffed one way or another. The article seems to acknowledge this, but concludes more paper promises are better than a tangilbe asset, wtf???

[G0ldfinger]

... but concludes more paper promises are better than a tangilbe asset, wtf???

40 years of post USD-gold standard indoctrination pay off. The sheeple want more paper (for now).

[Schaublin]

Whether your savings/investments/entitlements are destroyed by hyperinflation, stagflation or deflationary collapse is debateable. But if the promises cannot be met then the end result is still that you get stiffed one way or another. The article seems to acknowledge this, but concludes more paper promises are better than a tangilbe asset, wtf???

 

 

I think it is some kind of cognitive dissonance. I caught a few minutes of the World Service last night regarding the Euro. A talking head was describing the ramifications of Ireland leaving the Euro vs Germany leaving the Euro. He talked about mass panic/collapse and the interlocutor said: 'But that sounds like an apocalyptic scenario.' He replied: 'Yes it would be and that is why it will not happen!'

 

That says it all about those talking about gold in a bubble. We can stop the impending collapse by putting our fingers in our ears and repeating 'gold is frothy, gold is in a bubble'.

[G0ldfinger]

Beautiful CRIMEX dumping commencing at NY opening.

[G0ldfinger]

This is what a currency in big doodoo looks like.

 

A straight shot 'to da moon'.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold_GBP.html

[simonc]

This is what a currency in big doodoo looks like.

 

A straight shot 'to da moon'.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold_GBP.html

 

 

Looks a bit like the NASDAQ in '99

 

:o

[G0ldfinger]

Looks a bit like the NASDAQ in '99

 

:o

The difference being that the fundamentals are strong in gold, and they are still changing in favour of gold.

[d2thdr]

I'm undecided if I want the price to go up or down here.

 

Thing is, I don't want to be competing with the hordes on my fossicking expedition to the Southern Alps.

 

Down...down...down.

[Carlton]

Looks a bit like the NASDAQ in '99

 

:o

Only an ounce of gold isn't some tech stock with no revenue and no real assets.

[romans holiday]

This is what a currency in big doodoo looks like.

 

A straight shot 'to da moon'.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/Gold_GBP.html

I much prefer this log chart of yours gf:

 

 

edit

[G0ldfinger]

I much prefer this log chart of yours gf:

There is always a chart for whatever message one wants to send out.

[romans holiday]

There is always a chart for whatever message one wants to send out.

What message is that? If you're wanting to send the message to swap pounds for gold, then isn't the use of an undistorted chart better?

 

Consider your gold/ UK housing chart: the linear chart has to be pretty depressing for someone sitting on a heap of pounds; it gives the impression that the crash has already happened... and is near bottoming. If it was plotted instead on a log chart, it would show that the crash still has quite some way to go..... another good third or so before it hits 100... and is therefore well worth swapping pounds for gold even at what seem lofty prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[G0ldfinger]

What message is that? If you're wanting to send the message to swap pounds for gold, then isn't the use of an undistorted chart better? ...

All charts I post are as correct as possible. Only perception may be distorted. As for the house price chart, I usually post the log version and have done so yesterday as can be seen here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=194999

[romans holiday]

All charts I post are as correct as possible. Only perception may be distorted. As for the house price chart, I usually post the log version and have done so yesterday as can be seen here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=194999

That's a much more encouraging chart... if one were thinking of swapping pounds for gold. I notice that CC mentioned the need for a shorter 10 year chart... yet you did it in linear.

 

If I've drawn it right:

 

In linear it looks like "gold to 100" has travelled 5/6 of the way... almost arrived [25/30].

In log it shows that in fact it's only travelled 3/5 of the way.... just over half way [18/30].

 

 

[d2thdr]

Why are you guys fighting over log/analog chart? Total waste of time I say.Unless you are a day trader of course. Sometimes the gold thread becomes cluttered with too much noise, there is hardly anything useful left to read. Come on guys. Just post useful stuff.

[romans holiday]

Why are you guys fighting over log/analog chart? ........ Just post useful stuff.

Because the use of log shows the real relations between things. Without using log, an illusion is given that the numbers ["fixed" units] themselves are what count. This is the essence of money illusion.

 

I don't see it as fighting, but as a very useful discussion that needs to be had. Let's face it, the log chart is a lot more encouraging if someone's thinking of buyng gold. The linear is downright depressing... makes it look like you've missed the boat.

 

edit

 

“Many of the things you can count, don't count. Many of the things you can't count, really count.” Einstein

 

[G0ldfinger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/c...urs-demand.html

China Gold Imports Soar Almost Fivefold on Inflation

...

China’s gold imports jumped almost fivefold in the first 10 months from the entire amount shipped in last year as concern about rising inflation increased its appeal as a store of value, said the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

 

Imports gained to 209 metric tons compared with 45 tons for all of 2009, Shen Xiangrong, chairman of the bourse, told a conference in Shanghai today. China, the world’s largest producer and second-biggest user, doesn’t regularly publish gold-trade figures and rarely comments on its reserves.

...

“Given China is the world’s biggest gold producer, the sharp increase in its imports is a big surprise,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities Co. in Tokyo. “People there need to buy gold to hedge against inflation as the country’s tightening monetary policy drives investors from stocks and properties to gold.”

[G0ldfinger]

Is there any chance of plotting these charts in log form?

Just replace ".png" by "_LOG.png" in any URL.

[romans holiday]

Just replace ".png" by "_LOG.png" in any URL.

Awesome!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That must put 100 ounces well down here off the chart.......................................................................100

 

Less than 2/3 the way there.... and at that rate may take a few more years. That looks a pretty convincing argument for converting some pounds into gold.

[G0ldfinger]

Sweet. Someone's dumping now.

[DoctorSolar]

Nice interview with Bob Hoye:

 

Commodities: "An Upside Exhaustion"

 

ML: So what we can look for is gold going up, gold shares going up, and the stock market taking a hit?

 

Bob Hoye: Yes.

 

I have to admit when I first started out learning more deeply about financial matters I didn't really get Bobs take on things and disagreed with much he had to say. However, time has shown that he made some great calls and I now really look forward to his weekly slot on howestreet.com. Of course he doesn't always get things right but at least he has the balls to admit as much and move on. His thinking is partly what has lead me to the conclusion that its going to be party time for the quality gold juniors.

 

RH <- he broadly has the same view as you that the US dollar will remain strongish against other currencies but everything will go down versus gold.

[G0ldfinger]

Commodities: "An Upside Exhaustion"

Last time I checked outside, everyone was still driving their cars. And now the Chinese start doing it too, and that on a still weak currency.

 

I'll do the exact opposite of what this headline would indicate. So far, ignoring/not taking into account Hoye's advice was very profitable for me.

[G0ldfinger]

Hoye:

The other thing is that over decades and decades if you take the plot of the CRB commodity index up and down and you plot it against S&P earnings, they go up and down with the commodities.

Well, I don't have the CRB and the S&P here, but the huge hole during the 70s in that chart below seems to clearly contradict Hoye. Given that Bernanke is targeting the Dow, it is possible not the Dow that will fall, but oil that will go up.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/DJIA...-Ratio_LOG.html

[DoctorSolar]

Last time I checked outside, everyone was still driving their cars. And now the Chinese start doing it too, and that on a still weak currency.

 

I'll do the exact opposite of what this headline would indicate. So far, ignoring/not taking into account Hoye's advice was very profitable for me.

 

Well as I said Bob isn't "100% correct guaranteed" every time. He got the call right on silver to begin with predicting the HUGE sell off. However, to remain bearish after this was a mistake. At least he had the balls to admit when he was wrong and bail on his call early. Even given these errors I still think a lot of what he has to say bears listening to particularly his outlook on gold and gold stocks.

 

The key point to his gold stocks argument is that in a post bubble credit contraction the real value of gold goes up relative to the commodities needed to get the stuff out the ground e.g. oil. This has been working well so far.

 

You seem to be of the view point that oil is due to explode up in the next couple of years. If this happens even if it were in tamdem with gold then his argument would begin to crumble. What's your thoughts on this GF? Will gold stocks soar even as their input costs soar too?

[DoctorSolar]

HK gold market hit by sophisticated scam

 

Hong Kong goldsmiths have been sold hundreds of ounces of fake gold this year in one of the most sophisticated scams to hit the Chinese territory’s gold market in decades.

 

Industry executives say the scam – while not massive and hitting only the retail sector – uncloaks the increasingly elaborate gold swindles perpetrated by criminals in Asia as bullion prices soar to record highs of $1,400 a troy ounce.

 

The counterfeits have shocked Hong Kong’s gold community not because of the amount involved, but because of their sophistication.

 

“It’s a very good fake,” said Haywood Cheung, president of the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society, Hong Kong’s century-old gold exchange, highlighting how criminals are developing new techniques to commit an age-old fraud.