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I am saying for the second time that you are totally incorrect. See my first post above and reread until it sinks in.

 

You have great faith in hazmat, as if an insurance company has never gone bust in the past, or as if confiscations have never happened in the past! :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

What you suggested/outlined is clearly NOT the same as owning your own gold in your own hands. If you wish to give your savings to people in foreign lands in exchange for some pixels on a screen go right ahead.

 

I plan to sell my BV gold at some point and buy physical instead. I will wait for another opportunity like the one I just missed.

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Bubb - is your ABC the same as an EW ABC corrective wave, or just your own notation for a 3 point move ?

 

Ask as wondering if u think pentration of 900 on big volume would imply an EW Wave 3 of 5 down - and hence your wanings to watch 900 and volume VERY closely [as Wave 5 might terminate sub-800]

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1...amp;T_ARID=5986

 

"Major, major gold support floats around the $887.50 Angel. Float means moves above and below."

 

Could need balls of iron not gold to ride this one out! B)

 

Re the GM/BV vs. physical/coins in hand - surely trying to liquidate any reasonable size holding of coins in a crisis is going to be tricky and risky? And storage of any reasonable size amount coins would most sensibly be with a bank - do you trust them over VIA MAT et al?

 

SafeBetter

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I am saying for the second time that you are totally incorrect. See my first post above and reread until it sinks in.

 

You have great faith in hazmat, as if an insurance company has never gone bust in the past, or as if confiscations have never happened in the past! :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

What you suggested/outlined is clearly NOT the same as owning your own gold in your own hands. If you wish to give your savings to people in foreign lands in exchange for some pixels on a screen go right ahead.

 

The way you write, makes me think you are not very old and probably don't have very much to store. I feel very safe with the system GoldMoney has put in operation. Would much rather have security, insurance and instant sale at spot ability.

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Realistically the thing limiting how much gold you can store at home is risk, having all your gold or assets at home is very high risk, you would not be diversified at all. There must also be a limit to how much bullion you can have insured at home and if it is insured then the insurance company knows you have gold and probably would be forced to inform the government if it came down to gold confiscation. Or you could just hold your entire life saving at home uninsured. I do hold the majority of my gold physically and I will be diversifying by making future purchases into BV and Gold Money for ease of trading.

 

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I was under the impression that lease rates are on top of the base rate? Didn't we have a similar thing with silver last month?

I think I've confused everyone here, including myself. :o

 

I've now finally got to grips with the lease rate issue, and I was right the first time!

 

Lease rates are to some extent artificial. The market determines the 'forward rate'. So what is the forward rate? The FO is the rate of interest that a bullion bank will pay you, if you wish to borrow gold, putting up USD as security. Essentially, you want metal temporarily, but want to hedge the price: e.g. you're a investor looking to 'short' gold, or you're a goldsmith, looking for some gold to practice with, etc.

 

As a result, the forward rate combines both features of the gold market, and the USD credit market. If you then subtract out the LIBOR rate, which represents the credit market, you get the 'lease rate' which represents the theoretical cost of a 'naked' gold loan - i.e. a loan without collateral, which would not normally be made.

 

So, just making up some easy numbers, if the USD LIBOR rate is 3%, and the gold lease rate is 1% and gold is $1000/oz - I could borrow a 100 oz bar, by putting up $100k collateral. The bank would pay me 3% on the $, and charge 1% on the gold - The bank then pays me the net (2%) which is the forward rate - I get the gold, and the bank pays me $5 a day for swapping it for greenbacks.

 

In cases of a short term gold shortage, the lease rate will rise, representing the fact that it is difficult to find gold to borrow and you have to pay a premium for it. E.g. If lease rate rises to 10%, then I deposit $100k and take the 100 oz bar, but I actually have to pay interest on the gold at 7% per year. In this scenario, the gold is more highly valued than the $, so although I get the gold, the bank will require an extra $20 per day in interest. This high lease rate encourages large holders of gold to lend it, thereby freeing up the short term market: everyone is happy - the lender makes money on lending the gold, and the shorts make money because they sell the gold at its peak, and buy back after the short term crisis is over.

 

What does a negative lease rate mean? It means that the forward rate is higher than LIBOR. In other words, swap US$ for gold, they will pay a higher rate of interest for the US$ than the market rate. Essentially, they are desperate to lend the gold out (or receive USD) even if they have to pay a premium for it.

 

Why has the lease rate gone negative? I suppose, as lease rates rise in short term shortages, lease rates will fall if the short term market is flooded out. However, the actual gold market is different to the gold borrowing market. So, presumably, this move indicates a sudden move to encourage shorting of gold. POssible options:

 

1) Something has scared the shorts off, and they have been panic covering. The bullion banks are now getting their gold back and will have to return USD, and they are trying to stem the flow - either they don't want the gold back so quick (unlikely), or they're struggling to get the USD together (more likely).

2) There is a massive glut of gold on the spot market. The recent rise in price may have encouraged hoarders and hedged producers to start emptying stockpiles.

3) Possible asymmetric manipulation of the LIBOR rates. E.g. The FED's new liquidity injections have helped lower LIBOR, but not all institutions may be eligible for them. If bullion banks can't get hold of the USD liquidity then they may be forced to pay a higher USD rate in order to improve their balance sheets.

 

 

 

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The way you write, makes me think you are not very old and probably don't have very much to store. I feel very safe with the system GoldMoney has put in operation. Would much rather have security, insurance and instant sale at spot ability.

 

Can I suggest handbags at dawn to resolve this. ;) Sorry, couldn't resist.

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1) Something has scared the shorts off, and they have been panic covering. The bullion banks are now getting their gold back and will have to return USD, and they are trying to stem the flow - either they don't want the gold back so quick (unlikely), or they're struggling to get the USD together (more likely).

2) There is a massive glut of gold on the spot market. The recent rise in price may have encouraged hoarders and hedged producers to start emptying stockpiles.

3) Possible asymmetric manipulation of the LIBOR rates. E.g. The FED's new liquidity injections have helped lower LIBOR, but not all institutions may be eligible for them. If bullion banks can't get hold of the USD liquidity then they may be forced to pay a higher USD rate in order to improve their balance sheets.

 

 

Hmm so lots of borrowing of gold took place over the last two months....probably to sell high and buy back low as everyone and their dog expected a correction post $1000. So now they want to give it back....but the banks aren't keen as this means handing out their precious liquid funds in a credit squeeze.

 

So this could go several ways...here's two...maybe

1)Gold borrowers decide to enjoy being paid to keep it (like fiat)..gold price goes up?

2)Investors don't want the risk of further falls and force the banks to take it back...banks have to borrow or sell their remaining gold or other assets to cover the USDs needed to repay the loan. The outcome of this depends on how much the gold the gold lenders have left in their vaults.

 

Re point 1...if investors can get Libor + the lease rate return on their money in a 'safe haven' won't they rush to it and create a shortage of supply in Gold? Or is this too optimistic?

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Sorry to interrupt the thread but does anyone know where I could download the historical price of Gold in pounds sterling? I would like for as far back as is possible and monthly data would be fine. I'm looking to plot average UK house prices when priced in Gold to see if there is a historical average/trend. Perhaps this has already been done on HPC or here, but otherwise I think it would be very interesting

 

Thanks!

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Sorry to interrupt the thread but does anyone know where I could download the historical price of Gold in pounds sterling? I would like for as far back as is possible and monthly data would be fine. I'm looking to plot average UK house prices when priced in Gold to see if there is a historical average/trend. Perhaps this has already been done on HPC or here, but otherwise I think it would be very interesting

 

Thanks!

 

Don't know about the data series, but charts of that kind of thing here...

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_GBP_monthly_since1952.pdf

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_vs_property.pdf

 

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Sorry to interrupt the thread but does anyone know where I could download the historical price of Gold in pounds sterling? I would like for as far back as is possible and monthly data would be fine. I'm looking to plot average UK house prices when priced in Gold to see if there is a historical average/trend. Perhaps this has already been done on HPC or here, but otherwise I think it would be very interesting

 

Thanks!

 

THE LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION

 

Daily fix prices since 1985.

Monthly averages since 1990

 

http://www.lbma.org.uk/statistics_historic.htm

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Don't know about the data series, but charts of that kind of thing here...

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_GBP_monthly_since1952.pdf

 

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_vs_property.pdf

 

Thanks wheelybin and dst - exactly what i was looking for! It looks like it might be a good bet to say that the price of an average UK house could eventually come down from the 700 ounces peak to 300 ounces or less. This sort of thing really makes me consider if all the cash I have earmarked specifically for a house ought to just go 100% into gold bullion as whatever the price of gold does I might reasonably expect that if I have 300 ounces of gold at some point I will be able to buy a house with that or even less perhaps!

 

There are some similar charts I just came across for the US housing market here http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

It's a bit strange because the chart for the US suggests the peak for housing in ounces of gold was back around 2000-01 rather than during the more manic phase later 2003-05

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It looks like it might be a good bet to say that the price of an average UK house could eventually come down from the 700 ounces peak to 300 ounces or less.

 

Could go lower....Goldfinger's looking for an average UK house at 100oz as a theoretical top for gold, IIRC.

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/archive/ind...p/t-195370.html

 

The sites I linked earlier were via GF too, so he's probably got the best handle on the house price / gold price situation.

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There are some similar charts I just came across for the US housing market here http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

It's a bit strange because the chart for the US suggests the peak for housing in ounces of gold was back around 2000-01 rather than during the more manic phase later 2003-05

That's because from 2001 gold in dollars was increasing faster than houses in dollars.

 

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There is a nice & lengthy gold thread developing here:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com

 

It's a continuation of a dinosaur gold thread from the UK webpage housepricecrash.co.uk.

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...mp;postcount=33

 

No wonder we have so many visitors !

 

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Hmm so lots of borrowing of gold took place over the last two months....probably to sell high and buy back low as everyone and their dog expected a correction post $1000. So now they want to give it back....but the banks aren't keen as this means handing out their precious liquid funds in a credit squeeze.

 

So this could go several ways...here's two...maybe

1)Gold borrowers decide to enjoy being paid to keep it (like fiat)..gold price goes up?

2)Investors don't want the risk of further falls and force the banks to take it back...banks have to borrow or sell their remaining gold or other assets to cover the USDs needed to repay the loan. The outcome of this depends on how much the gold the gold lenders have left in their vaults.

 

Re point 1...if investors can get Libor + the lease rate return on their money in a 'safe haven' won't they rush to it and create a shortage of supply in Gold? Or is this too optimistic?

 

CGNAO's take in the lease rate move...

 

"Central banks dumping gold like it's going out of fashion.

 

They desperately want to hold it back, but they can't. "

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...046&st=2175

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I'm a little concerned about Clive Maund since I read about his connection with Garry North.

 

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpost.php?...mp;postcount=24

 

I then turned my attention to the investment publishing client (Dr. Gary North and the American Bureau of Economic Research), eventually buying a stake in the firm. http://www.johnmauldin.com/biography.html

 

I guess any technical analysis is coloured by ones views.

 

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I'm a little concerned about Clive Maund since I read about his connection with Garry North.

 

I'm also a bit worried about Jason Hommels delusions. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Maybe he once got a silver bar from the Perth mint with 666 stamped on it,and now they are the devils reincarnated. :lol: :lol:

http://www.bibleprophesy.org/

 

Visit my other website:

The Silver Stock Report

where I'm actively putting into practice

the Christian lessons regarding "honest weights and measures".

If the 666 mark of the beast is bad,

then God's .999 fine gold and silver is good.

 

Email me, Jason Hommel here:

bibleprophesy@yahoo.com

 

Why should you support a mininistry?

 

How to let God bless your ministry.

 

 

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ChumpusRex & tinecu,

Thanks, I think I'm finally starting to get it.

 

It looks like this week could be interesting.

 

(PS I was a long day the other day, and I think I swapped rise & fall over. Feel free to ignore me :D )

 

this is worth a read.

 

Note. The 'Cash and Carry trade' and the final example cited of a central bank in need of liquidity at the bottom of the page.

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Clive Maund presents a technical case for a major commodity correction, including gold and silver.

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1206894827.php

 

Clive's chart

1.gif

 

He could be right. But thank goodness, there's another interpretation:

 

+ Gold's big selloff was largely due to a forced liquidation of a big long position held by Bears Stearns,

and the knock-on effect that had on stop losses

 

+ Gold needss to build a base on lighter volume buying and selling before it can head higher,

but if it does so without falling much below $900, then it will remain healthy.

 

+ The channel may need to get redrawn if that happens, since a longer correction is better.

 

To me, it looks like A TOSS UP A as to whether Clive's interpretation will happen, or the bullish one.

But I do not see a clear parabolic upmove in that chart.

 

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narco,

I agree with you. I wouldn't dream of selling any. I'm only really interested from a buying point of view :D

 

Any chance you can save me the trouble of searching what your name derives from ?

I did spot narco-dollars somewhere today :D

 

 

Goldilocks,

Yep, I noticed his 'obsession' with the bible :unsure:

As A Bright I don't 'pick on' any one religion. Just all of them :lol:

(That's very badly worded, but I can't think of the right word :( )

 

tinecu,

I find the iTulip posts very insightful. Some are little too long and detailed for the time I have to read.

They seem to be on the inflation side of the argument.

 

The recent thread on Mish is an interesting read too:

 

The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3362

 

:D

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