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drbubb

Hong Kong's LOHAS Park & Taikoo Shing prices

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Hemera (LOHAS) is sold out

 

CK Hutchinson holdings has sold out the third batch of homes in its Hemera project. Discounts of up to 19% on list prices helped.

 

The project consisted of 1,648 flats atop the Lohas Park MTR station

 

Batch-3 : 510 units, ranging from 680 sf to 1,100 sf, sold at HK$7.39mn to HK$13.9mn, before discounts (?) After discounts, many flats were $8,400 - $9,000 pssf

 

Meantime, in the secondary market for the week to April 12th, 79 flats were sold on the 50 top estates - down 23% from the prior week, with strong primary market sales "stealing" some demand.

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Today's SCMP, Property section highlighted this transaction (pg P1):

 

Point of sale:

Price : HK$6.93 million

Size- : 716 sf (that's HKD 9,678 psf x 75.32%: $7,289

Where : Capitol LOHAS Park, TKO

 

Updating...

month: CariC: Lohas :: PkCen: TaikSh: L/TKS :

13-Jan: 6,336 : 6,146 :: 7,551 : 12,149 : 50.6%

14-Jan: 5,809 : 6,146 :: 7,722 : 10,936 : 56.2%

15-Jan: 6,538 : 6,356 :: 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3%

07/12 : 7,073 : 7,189* :: 9,789 : 14,183 : 50.7%

%.chg: +8.1% :+13.1%: +6.8%: +12.3% :

====

*Latest, from here:

http://www1.centadata.com/pih09/pih09/estate.aspx?type=3&code=YAPPWPPJPW&lang=eng&source=data

Note: Efficiency is 75.32%, so $7,189/ .7532 = $9,545

 

So LOHAS has sprinted ahead of several other areas, in gains achieved.

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : ThArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.

Numb.: ( #1) ( #2,4): (---- #6) : (--- #7) : (--- #8) : (-- #9) / (--- #7) (--- #8): (- #12) : (-- #13): (-#14) (--#-3) : (---#21)

==== . .

07/12: 142.61 144.57: 15,591 : 19,942 : 26,391 : 22,811 /13,022: 13,344 : 15,651 : 17,464 : 21,067 : 7,073 : 14,183 :

12/28: 132.45 133.50: 15,491 : 19,434 : 24,750 : 22,230 /11,083: 12,582 : 13,947 : 15,883 : 21,760 : 6,141 : 13,301 :

change +

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LOHAS : Land premium hits a high - up 25% in two months - scmp - P1

 

Even so, residential prices are lagging behind, despite being on the MTR line

 

Ph.-8: 1,430 flats, in three towers on a 179,091 sqft site at LOHAS Park MTR.

Completion expected: 2021, with ave. size flat: 730 sqft

Developer has to share 15% of profit with the MTR.

 

+ Phase 8 land premium was HK$2,830 psf (HK$ 2.955 bn), a record

+ This was above expectations of HK$2,600, and above HK$2,260 for phase-6

+ Phase-7 was higher, at HK$3,147 psf - but included more valuable commercial space

 

Estimates are, that the developer will have to over the space at $12,000 pssf,

"to make a reasonable profit"

 

Secondary market now is at: HK$8,764 - $11,368 pssf / Average: HK$9,503

========

 

Updating...

month: CariC: Lohas :: PkCen: TaikSh: L/TKS :

13-Jan: 6,336 : 6,146 :: 7,551 : 12,149 : 50.6%

14-Jan: 5,809 : 6,146 :: 7,722 : 10,936 : 56.2%

15-Jan: 6,538 : 6,356 :: 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3%

07/12 : 7,073 : 7,189* :: 9,789 : 14,183 : 50.7%

08/23 : 7,408 : 7,284* :: 9,729 : 14,335 : 50.8%

%.chg +13.3%:+14.6%: +6.1%: +13.5% :

====

*Latest, from here:

http://www1.centadata.com/pih09/pih09/estate.aspx?type=3&code=YAPPWPPJPW&lang=eng&source=data

Note: Efficiency is 75.32%, so :

07/12 : $7,189/ .7532 = $9,545

09/02 : $7,284/ .7532 = $9,666

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Not much improvement in price since the launch in 2008.

Why? The transport is still slow (1 train in 3 ?)

And there is no mall yet at LOHAS

 

"expected selling price of HK$5,700 to $5,800 psf"

Actual launch prices were about $5,500 per sf, Gross

 

Here's an update:

 

Area=== : TKO-CHt: TK*TsW : TKT-CPk: TY-TVrd: TC-CrCs: TktLb30 : Tkt.Lb50: TktTm13 : Tkt-IsHV : PrspG-KC : Fanling
"Top"- Est : $7.770M: $6.200M : $12.55M: $9.250M : $4.440M: $7.750M : $8.470M: $2.930M : $10.33E
===

Aug- 08/15 : $9.190M: $8.040M : $14.00M: $9.960M : $4.830M: $7.650M : $8.360M: $3.680M : $11.81M : $7.650M
Oct- 10/31 : $9.050M: $7.950M : $13.41M: $10.11M : $4.930M: $7.650M : $8.360M: $3.720M : $11.84M : $7.650M : $3.920M:
Dec- 12/11 : $8.960M: $7.680M : $13.19M: $10.00M : $4.830M: $7.600M : $8.300M: $3.630M : $11.65M : $7.500M : $3.780M:

Dec- 12/21 : $8.960M: $7.610M : $12.98M: $9.900M : $4.470M: $7.550M : $8.250M: $3.630M : $11.53M : $7.460M : $3.780M : $5.100M : 6.18

Area=== : TKO-CHt: TK*TsW : TKT-CPk: TY-TVrd: TC-CrCs: TktLb30 : Tkt.Lb50: TktTm13 : Tkt-IsHV : PrspG-KC : Fanling : Capitol -------->

Area ==== : TKO-CHt: TK*TsW : TKT-CPk: TY-TVrd: TC-CrCs: TktLb30 : Tkt.Lb50: TktTm13 : Tkt-IsHV : PrspG*KC : Fanl.Ctr. : Capitol : Capitol
Tower / Fl. : Tw3-30C: Tw3-25C: Tw3-30C: Tw3-30C: T3-30C : Tw3-30C: T3-50C : TG13fl.5 : Tw3-30C : Tw3- 28C : BlkF18-4 : T3-30-LC : 30-RC

========
Gross S.F.- : 0,899 sf : 0,585 sf : 0,943 sf : 0,951 sf : 0,680 sf : 0,742 sf : 0,741 sf : 0,425 sf : 0,945 sf : 0,719 sf : 0,470 sf : 0,519 sf : 0,682 sf
Net Sq Ft -- : 0,691 sf : 0,489 sf : 0,659 sf : 0,765 sf : 0,570 sf : 0,555 sf : 0,554 sf : 0,326 sf : 0,717 sf : 0,590 sf : 0,375 sf : 0,683 sf : 0,901 sf

 

Extractling those last two:

 

Capitol - Tower-3, 30th floor

LC : $5,100M : 683 sf = $ 7,467 psf ... /
RC : $6,180M : 901 sf = $ 6,859 psf ... /

 

===========

Updating...

month: CariC: Lohas : PkCen: TaikSh : L/TKS :

13-Jan: 6,336 : 6,146 :: 7,551 : 12,149 : 50.6%

14-Jan: 5,809 : 6,146 :: 7,722 : 10,936 : 56.2%

15-Jan: 6,538 : 6,356 :: 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3%

07/12 : 7,073 : 7,189* :: 9,789 : 14,183 : 50.7%

08/23 : 7,408 : 7,284* :: 9,729 : 14,335 : 50.8%

12/13 : 6,524 : 6,757* :: 9,764 : 12,721 : 53.1%
%.chg -0.22%: +6.3% : +6.5% : +0.74% :

====

*Latest, from here:

http://www1.centadat...eng&source=data

Note: Efficiency is 75.32%, so :

07/12 : $7,189/ .7532 = $9,545

09/02 : $7,284/ .7532 = $9,666

 

As expected, LOHAS has performed better in 2015 than Caribbean Coast and Taikoo Shing

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LOHAS Park is definitely a location to watch !

Like TKS, it is a sort of bellwether too,
and it has good transport links to:
+ Quarry Bay / Taikoo Shing
+ Tseung Kwan O / Park Central etc.

I monitor, the time and transport arbitrage between these locations.
Generally speaking, LOHAS is priced at about 50% of Taikoo Shing (TKS) at Quarry Bay.

mo CariC: Lohas: PkCen: TaikSh: L/TKS :
13: 6,336 : 6,146 : 7,551 : 12,149 : 50.6%
14: 5,809 : 6,146 : 7,722 : 10,936 : 56.2%

15: 6,538 : 6,356 : 9,168 : 12,627 : 50.3%
F. : 6,573 : 6,638 : 8,978 : 13,319 : 49.8% :
M : 6,984 : 6,616 : 9,371 : 13,906 : 47.6% :
A : 6,260 : 6,617 : 9,461 : 14,347 : 46.1% :
M : 6,958 : 6,864 : 9,531 : 14,356 : 47.8% :
J. : 6,656 : 6,964: 10129 : 14,243 : 48.9% :
Jl : 6,594 : 7,084: 10034 : 14,956 : 47.4% :
A : 7,577 : 7,284: 10160 : 14,923 : 48.8% :
S : 6,514 : 7,065: 10187 : 15,101 : 46.8% :
O : 7,047 : 6,911 : 9,449 : 13,947 : 49.6% :
N : 6,856 : 6,872 : 9,194 : 13,731 : 50.0% :

D :

 

(Caribbean Coast is in Tung Chung, at the other end of HK.

It is also a long journey from Central, and has been priced at a similar level to LOHAS)

 

I think that current 50% gap will narrow over time because:

+ As more properties are completed there, more MTR trains will go directly to the LOHAS station
+ A mall is planned for LOHAS near the station. When it opens, it will be a better place to live

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(From AX): TKS / LOHAS thread

Duracelll

I am not interested in TKS. I think there are some people worried sick that prices will tank very quickly, and are in a rush to go out and are willing to give steep discounts. However, these flats are probably going fairly quickly, so I keep my eyes open.
I think I lost another great deal for a 5 M flat, which seems to be no longer available (unless it never was, of course. Agents make up stuff sometimes).
OffThePeak (22 hrs ago)

You will see more "good deals" imho.
TKS is the bellwether, and the damage is likely to spread out from there.

 

Greene King (5 hrs ago)
Recently calls to remove the additional cooling measures have increased as these additional costs have had an impact. Here is my take on this:
The additional measures were put in place 2012/2013. What were they supposed to achieve?
-hold prices as they were at the time?
-limit further increases?
-cause prices to fall (to more affordable prices)?

Remember at the time there was talk about the average guy had been priced out,prices had risen too high etc.
Well since then prices have risen from around 123 on the CCI in March 2013 to 137 now. So looking at the three possible intended achievements (of the measures) none of them have been met yet. My take is there will be no reduction in the special measures until the CCI falls to around 120 or so, a fall of around 12% from now.
OffThePeak (3 hrs ago)

I agree with you Greene King.
120 or so looks like a key support level.
Using 147 as the Peak, that would be a fall of 18.4%.

 

Greene King (45 mins ago)
OTP,
FYI this is the MTR tender I mentioned before, one to keep an eye out for.
MTR CORPORATION officially invited the property developers to tender for the development of LOHAS Park Phase 9 in Tseung Kwan O and the deadline for submission will be at 2 p.m. on 28 December 2015.
The project has received 19 letters of intent at an earlier time. LOHAS Park Phase 9 covers a site area of approximately 138,500 sq. ft.. It can accommodate three buildings with up to 1,780 residential units.
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.704728/1

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Wow!
A miss of 1,300 flats to the upside ...

Together with the flats sited on other plots sold this year and the 1,100 units to be developed by MTR Corporation at Lohas Park, the overall figure is expected to reach 20,300 units at the end of the fiscal year.

That's unusual, since for years we have seen misses to the downside.
That's likely to set a negative trend for the new year

====
Latest sales at TKS show downwards pressure:

Twr-Flr-fl- : Date--------- : Price : Size : Per SF
(21) 05 E : 10/12/2015 : $9.50 : 800 : $11,875
(60) Hi. H : 21/12/2015 : $9.50 : 708 : $13,418
(60) 28 E : 24/12/2015 : $11.0 : 717 : $13,253 < NEW
(50) 19 D : 28/12/2015 : $6.44 : 608 : $12,799 < NEW

FLAT E 25/F (T-60) KWUN TIEN MANSION HORIZON GARDENS 28 24/12/15 $11.00M 717s.f. 830s.f. $15342 $13253
FLAT D 19/F (T-50) YIU SING MANSION SING FAI TERRACE 34 28/12/15 $6.44M 503s.f. 600s.f. $12799 $10730

LOHAS PARK
Proj-Tower-Floor-fl : Date--------- : Price : Size-sf : Per SF
LePrime-07 20R A : 16/12/2015 : $6.60 1067/813 : $8,229 < NEW
Capitol. -03 37R D : 18/12/2015 : $6.30 : 943/704 : $8,949 < NEW
LePrime-07 20R A : 22/12/2015 : $5.80 : 909/680 : $8,529 < NEW
LaSplen.-11 19R C : 23/12/2015 : $6.10 : 961/727 : $8,391 < NEW
Capitol. -05 41R B : 23/12/2015 : $5.30 : 684/519 : 10212 < NEW
LaSplen.-09 20R A : 29/12/2015 : $5.95 : 901/676 : $8,802 < NEW

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Here is ONE of several possible scenarios that would fit my Cycllcal concept.

I have simply tacked the price action from 1997 to 2001 onto the prior peak.
These are HKD per SF (Gross) prices in Taikoo Shing:

The Drop is 33% from about $15,000 psf to $10,000 psf.

TKS2_zps2mddviyx.png

Remember: Just One of several possible scenarios.
The drop in the first 12-18 months (if that's how long it lasts) may not be so steep.
And the following rally might be different

I will plan to revise this scenario, or add another one to it, when I have sufficient info to do so.

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TKS: NEW LOW at $11,482 psf

 

In case anyone here is interested, bellwether estate, Taikoo Shing, has hit a new low at $11,482 psf.
That's 24.4% below the $15,181 psf peak of Oct. 4th, 2015.

.
By comparison, the CCLI index is down from 146.92 on 9/13/2016 to 127.46 - that's 13.2%
Reference transaction price at LOHAS is $6,334, 13.7% above Caribbean Coast at $5,570.
> http://www1.centadata.com/eptest.aspx?type=3&code=YAPPWPPJPW&info=chart&code2=&page=0
These two estates have tracked each other in the past
The LO/TKS ratio is holding up at 55.2% - one of the best levels since Jan. 2014,

and LOHAS has often been half the price of Taikoo Shing,

 

It is TKS and CC/tc that looks relatively cheap now

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