Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
No6

The Naked Trader (Robbie Burns)

Recommended Posts

Never mind his trading or EAGA

 

I'm fed up with hearing about bloody Twitter.

 

Twitter this Twitter that, nice and easy for journalists to make up loads of stories without having to do any work whatsoever.

 

The Mail reports today, yes you guessed it, the first woman to cover the birth of her child on twitter..

 

What next? Tell you what the next time I have a crap I'll do a live Twitter feed for you.

 

(2.30 - Place The Sun carefully on floor of toilet. 2.31, remove trousers and sit on seat.......)

 

:lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gone quiet on the Robbie thread, though I know No 6 at least occassionally reads his blog.

 

Robbie has been having the parents nightmare of choosing schools of late, nice to see him touch on these everyday aspects in his blog.

 

As for his thoughts on the markets, he still keeps it simple whilst confirming he general view.

 

.....those in the right individual stocks could be doing rather well right now as there are lots of companies producing very decent reports. So even if the main market falls I think some companies will still do fine, especially those outside the ftse 100.

 

I stick to my main plan which is to cut anything that starts to lose pretty quick especially if it was risky anyway and hold or top up on the ones going well.

 

However in general I'm being very cautious about this summer and staying clear of anything that looks too volatile or risky..

 

Did pick up on this one which touches on the published to real portfolio difference discussed earlier in the thread

 

Telecom Plus - my biggest holding by some way .. continues to soar. It got a surprise instant promotion to the FTSE 250 late last week. Forth Ports came out after the bid for it and Telecom Plus got in from the reserve list though no-one seems to have spotted this, indeed it appears to have pretty much gone unreported. This has seen the share price go higher as funds buy in. I reckon these will be in the FTSE 100 in 7-8 years time. In the meantime, bar a black swan event, they ought to simply keep rising over time.

 

I have very roughly about £200,000 of these shares for the slow steady increase in capital and the big dividend which brings me a good yearly income. Website profit for the shares must be well over £30,000 though I'm too lazy to add it up.

 

 

Just noticed he also went short after Linkedin

 

The short in Linkedin is going very well indeed with profits of over £2.000 already!

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gone quiet on the Robbie thread, though I know No 6 at least occassionally reads his blog.

 

NT gets quite a few mentions on my market thread and as I mainly post there now this one has more or less gone to sleep.

 

 

As for his thoughts on the markets, he still keeps it simple whilst confirming he general view.

 

I think I have figured out what he does really well.

 

1. He tends to concentrate on smaller companies which as he says go under the radar. If he were mostly investing in FTSE100 and 250 companies, he would see them go up and down in line with the general market. Smaller companies, if you pick the right ones, often have a life of their own. The general market can be in a down period, but these will just keep going up. Of course, if you pick the wrong ones, they will fall big time as well.

 

2. His FTSE100 and 250 picks tend to be companies with a big success growth story behind them, Aggreko springs to mind.

 

 

Did pick up on this one which touches on the published to real portfolio difference discussed earlier in the thread

 

 

Telcoms Plus has been one of his big winners and he started off as a distributer of the company with the Utility Warehouse, apparently he still gets good residual income from that as well. This has been one of his smaller companies that just kept getting bigger, I can see it being a takeover target for one of the big players at some stage.

 

 

Just noticed he also went short after Linkedin

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

 

The Linkedin short got a mention on the markets thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted on No 6's market thread

 

Yes long noticed he's not exactly a B.P, banks or big resource man myself.

 

Have you also spotted the main trend in his spread shorts? Besides the index, plenty of retailers of one description or another. Whatever his selection criteria for trading short, it seemingly sets a trend towards retailers be it Next or a building material provider.

 

Possibly these are what he knows and feels most comfortable with?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His latest picks!

 

 

I picked up some Gulf Keystone (GKP) on a spreadbet (as it's aim though not for much longer) for £30 at 142.

 

This one is a big fave among private investors - pi's often get involved in the really awful oil companies and don't seem satisfied till they do all their dough, I've met enough of them to know they fall in love with the worst. However I think this one could end up a gem. I got some in my sipp last week and I followed up with the spreadbet. Results today did not disappoint. It's got an aggressive expansion programme and is going to move from the aim to main market. It's down a bit today on not surprising profit taking.

 

This will put it right into the FTSE 250 and with oil production targets it has, a potential FTSE 100 entry is not out of the question if its potential is realised. I'll stick with the spreadbet for now and add to the ISA once it moves to the main market.

 

I'm looking around for bargains still at lows and I picked up some Exillion (EXI) at 242.8 - looks to pretty well oversold here so a tuckaway.

 

Hurrah!! Entertainment One (ETO) has paid off bigtime for me now, having bought quite a number in the 80s today's price of near 200 gives me a double and a bit and very glad I picked some more up recently at 150. I'm in profit by near £10,000 now.

 

Today the company comfirmed it was in talks for a sale. This company has so many top shows like Peppa Pig and Ben and Holly, a huge valuable library and also some top movies.

 

Given more than one party is involved I'd be really surprised if it wasn't bid for at nearer 250 than 200, and if I was a market maker I would have pitched it at 220.

 

So I could hardly resist buying more after the announcement and picked up another 2,000 ETO at 187.5. And more than that slightly higher but I think there is enough on the site now!

 

It's rare the market gives you anything for free, but ETO really looks a goodie at under 200p now. Downside is limited to 160-170 anyhow yet the upside could be 250-300. And someone is going to buy it at some point so to me it really is a question of sitting on them till it happens. Almost free money eventually and maybe even quite soon. Lovely. And even if a bid doesn't happen eventually they will be worth more anyhow.

 

I've taken part profits on the Ocado short at 110 for a profit of £2,430. I've taken part profits as there is a trading statement on Monday, and they have pretty much halved already since I shorted them. If there is a dead cat bounce on Monday I might well get stuck in again. There is an analyst out there who reckons they are only worth 50p and I agree !

 

The recent attempt at bargain hunting still looks okay though that could change fast. Kofax sits a little higher but disappointed so far it could not hold 300. Cape goes well. Just after I nipped a few Shaft Sinkers a big seller drove the price down though it recovered a bit though I held on and in a small loss. I'm hoping it will still pay off though buying a share with "shaft" and "sinker" in the title may well be asking for trouble...

 

New Brit stays calm as ever. (NBPO). It's been a brilliant profit maker and dividend payer for me over the last 2-3 years - I did take some profits last time of over £3,000 and sitting on a near £7,000 profit still on my original buy.

 

Telecom Plus remains the star of the show at just under 7 quid with those buys on fear days looking good. Total profits are well in excess of £50,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends. I suspect 700 ish is the limit of upside for right now but 1000 looks on the cards for later next year.

 

Kentz produced a super fabulous report and in better times I'm sure they would be over a fiver, as it is still in a nice profit on these and feel sure eventually the ones I bought recently will pay off. They head into the FTSE 250 in the next couple of days. Now hitting 460 which puts all the buys into a profit. I reckon eventually I will be selling Kentz when someone bids for it at 700p.

 

Coastal Energy too and is going well, it keeps coming up with successful drilling reports and this overlooked company could have massive upside in my opinion and already up nearly £2,000 on it.

 

Dialight has held up pretty well too as has shares like Alternative Networks.

 

Avon Rubber won another decent contract supplying masks to the USA and has risen nicely again and back near then 300p level and nice profits building on this, the original buy and the top up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I picked up some Gulf Keystone (GKP) on a spreadbet (as it's aim though not for much longer) for £30 at 142.

 

 

Robbie rued not cashing in at near £2.00 and put it down to greed <_<

 

Gulf K shot higher up to 200p. Oh why oh why didn't I take profits Dumbo? Greed, I guess. I let it drift all the way back to 172 before taking the profit of £1,320.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice little tale here from Robbie in his usual off market chat on life.

 

Talking of small talk me and Christopher went to the park to play a spot of football, there was another family there (looked like Mr and Mrs top city bankers plus grandma).

 

I said "Hello" to grandma and she blanked me. Then Mr and Mrs Smug top banker (w*****) come out of the football area with their bankerette daughter in her designer gear.

 

Me and Christopher tried again and it wasn't even smalltalk - just trying to be friendly. Nothing. We simply weren't there.

 

To them we were something the cat dragged in through the catflap overnight.

 

"How dare you even say hello to someone like me," is the message. Very sad. However of course generally it isn't representative of most people thank goodness.

 

I was imagining they probably hold posh dinner parties. Where all the guests drop in how much they are worth or what they own into seemingly innocuous statements:

 

"Yes, we are spending Xmas in our country house, it is good to get out of London!"

 

"I can't believe my bonus is going to be under 3 mill. That's recession for you."

 

"What terrible rain tonight. Thank goodness we bought the new Lexus model with self-cleaning windows.."

 

Surely it would be easier for the middle classes to simply wear T shirts at dinner parties with their net worth printed on the shirt? (Only down 12 mill this year not bad)

 

Nice one Robbie, civility costs nowt i.m.o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And for some general market musings

 

Markets

 

 

Goodness gracious.

 

(That's the polite way of putting it, make up your own version using your favourite swear words I really don't mind)

 

Markets continue to be, treacherous is the word that best sums it up and excited to see I spelt that right first time (I think)

 

Those overtrading will find it has become a giant casino where whatever you trade will inevitably be closed out at a loss by the casino. And the more chips you scatter about the more the casino will rake in off you. Don't let this happen.

 

Often it is better to leave the casino before all your chips have gone and return another time - at least then you still have some chips.

 

It really is better to simply sit back during uncertaintly, a trade is not compulsory. Any trades which in hindsight could be dodgy should be closed up and cash on the table for future use. Or, to buy something from the shops...

 

"Traders" think they must constantly trade when sometimes nothing at all is a good trade.

 

I feel a lot of people are chasing share prices about up and down, wondering why whereever they stick stop losses they get closed out. (It is always someone else's fault, usually the spreadbet firm or your broker and nothing to do with you. Of course the bastards closed you out, they were waiting all day just to get you. Ha ha!!)

 

More seriously it is very hard going at the moment and patience is the key. I have 6 trades in mind I would like to make at certain prices but I am happy to wait for the right time and the right price. I'll discuss those with those of you coming to the seminar on Friday.

 

I actually think a lot of shares have been re-rated to what is a fair level not an inflated one, so bargains are beginning to appear.

 

Another point is that the more it goes down at the back end of Nov and early Dec, the best chance we have of a massive Santa rally! In fact i feel pretty good because I think there will a lot of money to be made next month. I am waiting.

 

So I haven't been doing that much, outing the odd trade that hasn't worked, taking a small loss on the chin before it becomes a massive one, taking the odd profit here and there, a bit of topslicing too. And simply waiting and being patient for a time to buy the bargains.......

 

(further on) Overall I am getting excited because I have some cash and bargains galore are appearing everywhere. Remember especially when there is fear around shares will overshoot on the downside - there could be a lot of money to be made in December. I am ready with my ideas.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice little tale here from Robbie in his usual off market chat on life.

 

Nice one Robbie, civility costs nowt i.m.o

 

Not convinced that that tale is representative of the whole investment banking brigade. Some are quite civil, guess they can afford to be. Where as some self made owner managers of small empires can be quite the opposite. Agree on civility costing nowt.

 

Someone I know in my industry (unlrelated to investment/ banking) deals with an investment banker type (quite a high powered individual) and happened to ask him a few weeks ago what the market was going to do today ...... the reply was something along the lines of havnt got a bl**dy clue !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not convinced that that tale is representative of the whole investment banking brigade. Some are quite civil, guess they can afford to be. Where as some self made owner managers of small empires can be quite the opposite. Agree on civility costing nowt.

 

Someone I know in my industry (unlrelated to investment/ banking) deals with an investment banker type (quite a high powered individual) and happened to ask him a few weeks ago what the market was going to do today ...... the reply was something along the lines of havnt got a bl**dy clue !!

 

No I'd expect it does not represent everyone, but shows a common touch which I found amusing if nothing else.

 

As for the "havnt got a bl**dy clue", they only join everyone else, most on the few GEI threads I read for instance have been more bearish than bullish and probably no position for the bounce today, but then again what is the saying about markets acting irrational ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some sensible comments by Robbie on his website http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/?id=336 - he also lists his top shares and ones he is watching for 2012

 

LOOK AHEAD TO 2012

 

Well, let's face it for right now 2012 looks a bit scary. There seems to be lots of horrible news and little good.

 

But you could have said the same when we entered 2009 - it was dark and gloomy then but from March the markets took off. We have to remember markets always look forwards and you could argue there is a lot of bad news already in prices.

 

I guess much will depend on what happens in the Eurozone next year and whether or not it can be sorted out. If it can't we could end up in a mess but the ability to be able to short via spreadbets is fantastic.

 

I can't tell you what will happen because I don't know and nor does anyone else really. If you read stories written by "experts" they are only b-s*itting you because they don't know either.

 

But they have funds or newsletters or tipsheets or software to sell you so they need some good headlines, preferably fear driven ones to get you to subscribe.

 

My plan for the moment is to keep some cash back and not have to heavy a stake in anything in case liquidity dries up making it hard to get out of something. Follow the market if I can and not second guess it.

 

Staying away from companies with big debt and concentrating on ones with low debt or cash in markets which could go well.

 

And in general I am going to continue to avoid anything too volatile. They are just too much like hard work!

 

And important for this year again will be to plan every trade and axe any trade fast that is going wrong before it goes very wrong.

 

Next year, at least the beginning of it I'm going to treat with extreme caution and if things go pear shaped then I shall use the power of spreadbetting to make money from the downside.

 

I guess we have to hope somehow the economic mess is sorted out a bit.

 

+ I note his profit is up to......Grand Total: £987,884<BR class=clear><BR class=clear>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bunp one year on notice his profit grand total is now at £1,092,814

 

Not bad considering his thoughts at this time a year ago were more for battening down the hatches. Remember these are published trades.

 

Few more nice Robbie thoughts from his pre Christmas message

Be grateful we live in a lovely country and we are all relatively prosperous. Forget about markets, shares and money and enjoy the company of whoever you are with (however annoying!)....

Anyway I hope you all have a lovely holiday period, forget about shares and the markets and remember what is important: enjoying good cheer with close ones.

 

Try not to have too many fights, if someone annoys you count to ten or had elsewhere for a bit or perhaps even try and see their point of view and then make up!

 

 

As for trading tips on seminars maybe worth mentioning this point "........many of you seem to get how important it is to get your timing right and using level 2 and the other trick I showed you should help you to make more unemotional decisions on a trade.

 

One delegate said: "Just wanted to drop you a line to thank you for the seminar on Friday. One of the things I was particularly struck by was seeing your accounts and and there being hardly any red in there. It's clear that you really practice what you preach on cutting losers and this is a great lesson.

 

As for trading, Robbie seems to have palyed the Santa rally by FTSE spreadbets which he doesn't intend to hold for long, don't think many will argue that one. He reviews his year as follows

 

Sometimes I wish I was a spreadsheet kind of guy and could tell you some exciting percentages I did for the year.

 

But I'm not so I can't - all I know is the money has flowed in this year and it's been a really good one.

 

If I'm guessing I think I made about £300,000 this year - as those of you who came to seminars this year saw, my accounts are bursting with nice profits banked. And those of you who came obviously saw I make a lot of money spreadbetting which I don't cover on the website.

 

My downfall however would be greed. I still only put in my ISA allowance every year and that is that. I continue to bank profits made from spreadbets too. I could easily with leverage buy millions of quids worth of shares but I am definitely not going to!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hiya Riggers long time no chat. Good work by Robbie as always. Hope he keeps his website up, he said a few times he would stop when he reaches the £1m. mark. Maybe we should tell him to inflation adjust his target according to shadowstats !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi LDB, was thinking the same the other day, did check to see if you were still frequenting the joint or something more sinister had happened like been abducted :ph34r::lol:

 

Got Robbies 3rd edition to peruse over Christmas, much of the old stuff revisited, though clearly some add ons. Was good to read as I'd given away the 1st one anyway. Sure I read he was keeping it going awhile longer.

 

Hope you're well buddy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had been away from Robbie's site for about 5-6 years, I honestly thought he'd be a billionaire by now. I think in a mania, he will be if he keeps plugging away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi LDB, was thinking the same the other day, did check to see if you were still frequenting the joint or something more sinister had happened like been abducted :ph34r::lol:

 

Got Robbies 3rd edition to peruse over Christmas, much of the old stuff revisited, though clearly some add ons. Was good to read as I'd given away the 1st one anyway. Sure I read he was keeping it going awhile longer.

 

Hope you're well buddy

 

Yes well thanks, not been abducted yet :ph34r: , still hoping :D :D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Must admit there is less of interest these days on GEI. Belated new years wishes to you. I know the Uk markets thread was No6's thing but it might be good to do a new general markets thread just for us old timers to comment on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BUMP because noticed Robbie having a Mr Angry rant :angry:

 

In fact seen a fair bit on the ADVFN boards of "investors" venting over the shenanigans of short attacks on some of the larger AIM stocks, such as QPP, BLNX and GBO to name a few of late. So Robbie has weighed in, though notice he's not joined in the petition hunting some are championing, by trying to prevent "unsubstanciated" short attacks. here's Robbies take anyway

 

More luck than anything else but with cutting back on every position my QPP spreadbet was my biggest and I cut half of it taking profits before the share price got hit though I was still holding onto half when the problems started with the shorting attack. So I got out in the 39 area and then again after the trouble hit in the 25-26 area. (I say area because it was done in bits and pieces) I had a big spreadbet from 18p and it banked in reality over 50 grand and even after selling lower.

 

Then the price looked crazily oversold after the short attack and I bought in again in the 19p area and still holding those. But I don't know for how long.

 

Frankly I have no idea at all what to make of the shorting, and general crazyiness or whether the company is a winner or loser. Fundamentally it looks great, well undevalued.. the problem is the continued attacks leave it volatile and weak - my market ethos has always been to be in great companies in a nice uptrend which are a bit under the radar.

 

This one is the opposite now and not my type of thing at all. So happy to have sold off big positions and now only in smaller and now for entertainment than serious investment (for now). If only I was clever enough to know for sure the fundamentals are right because if I could I would buy stackloads. But sadly I have little understanding of accounts at all, drat it.

 

I would though add I think it's shocking for investors that commentary from unknowns can savage a share price . The fact shorters could be making packets from potentially misleading investors is disgusting - market regulators should be on the case immediately when there is a disordely market. There has been a disorderly market in these shares for a while and still is and the whole thing just becomes a gamble rather than in investment. it's also not possible to be relaxed about a holding that someone says is worth 3p and someone else says is worth 85p ! Who knows how it will all end - all I know is I have more interesting things to do with my life than watch its craziness constantly.

 

It's not just with this share - there seems to be a shorting mafia that gets together and targets various shares working on the basis that putting out bad rumours will easily take the price down. They make fortunes but it's the sensible investors with stops that lose. Seems like daylight robbery and someone somewhere should be tasked with the job of policing share prices better and taking immediate action when there is a false or unruly market. Something somewhere stinks.

 

It makes me pretty keen to avoid any such shares if I can - the problem has been too many smaller shares have been allowed to have become electronically traded rather than market maker only which means it's become a lot easier for unscrupulous individuals to manipulate prices and force them down. I think it all needs to be looked at and new rules brought in as soon as possible. But I doubt anything will be done. Right that is enough ranting from me.

 

Do wonder if people would be better voting with their feet by not renewing subscriptions to such as ADVFN, maybe the oxygen shorting brigades thrive on, just could start to be cut off? Food for thought Clem amongst others. f.w.i.w swing both ways myself ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this shorting mafia gang are probably doing the market a favour.

 

The share price should in theory be backed by the dividend. The dividend is hard solid tangible evidence of the health of the company. If a company has a solid 10 year earnings record and year by year increase in returns of earnings to share holders from increasing dividends, then that makes it an unfavourable target for these shorting gangs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this shorting mafia gang are probably doing the market a favour.

 

The share price should in theory be backed by the dividend. The dividend is hard solid tangible evidence of the health of the company. If a company has a solid 10 year earnings record and year by year increase in returns of earnings to share holders from increasing dividends, then that makes it an unfavourable target for these shorting gangs.

 

Fair point for me, another is that the nimble traders will benefit too, as truly oversold shares should eventually find their "true" level, whatever that is. That said I also have some time for those that get peeved when it would seem nothing but unsubstantiated blog posts are taken as fact to lead the market a merry dance. It also seems a bit perverse that certain tipsters can only make good call pied piping their followers without really having any substance behind their observations.

 

But hey guess that is what bulletin board and tip rag subscriptions are all about!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And to add, there is nothing to get the secretary of the said listed company to post on the bulletin boards each day to ramp their own stock!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And to add, there is nothing to get the secretary of the said listed company to post on the bulletin boards each day to ramp their own stock!

Lol all well and good until found out.

 

I've noticed the noise today that a certain larger than life shorter has had their posts removed from certain threads on ADVFN......hmm wonder why? edit legal teams in action? :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't followed the QPP story, buy it looks like the institutional shareholders have come out and shown their support for the management, and they are looking at building a foundation of dividends going forward. I guess someone is listening out there!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I randomly did a search on youtube for Quindell, and someone has posted a possible bottom for Quindell at this low... will it work out?

 

 

 

I have no affiliation with that channel or website, by the way!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×