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No6

The Naked Trader (Robbie Burns)

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Markets

 

 

Well, goodness me, the good times just keep rolling. Who'd have thought that May would have been so good?

 

The profits just keep rolling in and I'm sure it's the same for many of you out there. If you'd told me in January that between March and May I'd make more money faster than even in the last bull market I'd have said you were having a laugh.

 

The only thing is.. markets can get over crazy when everyone piles in so still happy I took some profits recently. And the other thing is the market will always bite in you in the bum the moment it looks like an easy game!

 

Still for the time being I can easily afford to give up some of the profits and while the trend is strong I'm sticking in there.

 

But I'm being a little more careful buying new things and sitting on the gainers.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

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Looks like NT has done it again.

 

Elsewhere big excitement from Heritage Oil where I have already trebled my money - it's only just happened so I don't know much except the shares are suspended pending an announcement - looks like a reverse takeover.

 

Goodness knows what to expect but the share price was rising fast before the suspension so it must be something that's good news, more in the next update!

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

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Me too think it's time for a Kurdistan oil thread. I'll work on it if nobody beats me to it as i've got 5 plays in the region. And yes it was Robbie that got me interested.

 

p.s just noticed that list you put up. Re 6 is it liquid and 2 has full listing..... AMINEX ??

Heritage Oil has had a couple of down days, one of 10%+ after the announcement of takeover plans. It largely fell on the back of news out of Iraq. This could either represent a bargain opportunity or big money loser. HOIL will go in the FTSE 100 after this tie up, so the trackers will start to buy, but who knows whether Iraq will approve the deals? If they do, this could be a big bargain.

 

Shares in Heritage Oil have been in demand since it confirmed takeover talks earlier in the month. Its potential partner was this week announced as Genel Enerji of Turkey, but now the timing of the $6bn (£3.7bn) merger announcement looks a tad unfortunate. It transpires that Genel is one of a group of companies in dispute over contracts in northern Iraq, and yesterday Iraq repeated that it considered the deals - signed with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government - to be illegal until ratified by Baghdad. On top of that, neither side seems willing to pay the cost of developing the oil fields involved, which, at the very least, reinforces the difficulties in operating in the region. The news sent Heritage shares 63p lower to 540p, one of the leading fallers in the mid-cap index.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/ju...itage-oil-genel

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Does the naked trader have the power to move markets? I was looking at some of his latest picks and within days of his picking them they seemed to fly. Of course, as he updates his site on wed and fri, there is a little delay in the pick getting out there, but there are times when his selections do seem to take off shortly after he goes in, Gem Diamonds is one of the latest.

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Visionic and latchways too. He buys them and after doing pretty much nothing for months, they shot up they day after...

 

Could be that as some of these are smaller companies with less shares going around, the market makers mark them up shortly after he tips them because others try to buy? It is interesting that some of these have flown very shortly after he buys. The bigger companies, FTSE 350 types, are more difficult, perhaps impossible to move in such a way.

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Visionic and latchways too. He buys them and after doing pretty much nothing for months, they shot up they day after...

Same thing happened with Aminex. Think he knows this and to be fair i've seen comments in the past thats why he doesn't go for tiddlers so much.

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Thank You for posting that informative articles. Your strategy is great and simple effective.

Why thank you Mr Bot.

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Why thank you Mr Bot.

 

Funny. Moving on wonder when Robbie will start taking more short positions than of late. Still in the greedtguts camp on last post.

 

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Funny. Moving on wonder when Robbie will start taking more short positions than of late. Still in the greedtguts camp on last post.

He seems to be taking quite a few holidays recently and not updating his sight as often in the past, something about wanting to spend more time with his young lad before he goes off to private school, which is understandable. He's even talked of not doing it anymore which would be a shame. He seems prepared to go with the market flow for now rather than try to second guess a fall. I think like many of us, he has been surprised by the strength of the rally though.

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NT did say recently that once he got to a £million, he probably would not be doing the website anymore. He still seems to pick far more winners than losers. Shouldn't take him that long to reach the target.

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NT did say recently that once he got to a £million, he probably would not be doing the website anymore. He still seems to pick far more winners than losers. Shouldn't take him that long to reach the target.

 

Hear he's taken a bit of a hit with HDY, but he should have sold true to his stop loss.

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Hear he's taken a bit of a hit with HDY, but he should have sold true to his stop loss.

 

The UK oil sector, apart from BP, seems to be taking a bit of a hit at the moment, HDY didn't deliver on drilling results, but he still picked up a packet by the looks of it.

 

For newcomers to the market a short means I win if the share goes down but lose if it goes up. My birthday started with a surprise poor drilling report from Hardy. I was really surprised because there had been so much heavy buying I was expecting a really good report. So it was a shock that one of its wells hadn't produced. That is the trouble with oil stocks - one barren well can lead to a big drop. They must always be viewed as risky and speculative. I do what I always do when question marks come up and sell asap. Of course I was lucky in that most of my buying had been done in the low 200s so even with the big drop I still banked a profit. But it must be viewed as profits lost.

 

On Thursday, I must have had profits of something like £10,000. Within half an hour on Friday these were savaged and I ended up banking a profit of just £5,587. Spreadbet stop losses really came into their own and I was stopped out automatically at 374.4 and 371. Sadly these were not guaranteed ones so for example the stops at around 440 were not honoured. On normal trades, I sold half rightaway at 370 but then waited on the rest in case there was a bounce. There wasn't - I waited for a bit which proved a mistake and sold the rest at 351.5. One point to make here is it shows how important it is not to be too exposed to any one stock - especially a risky oil one.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm

 

One company that NT has bought in the past and seems to be dropping like a stone at the moment is Wellstream Holdings. I can't see any reason for it other than a director selling a few weeks ago and takeover prospects fading away, this could be one to watch.

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I see Robbie has made a few trades recently, longs and shorts

 

Including Centamin a stock I have looked at in the past.

 

Not sure about Booker however ! Still Im sure he knows better than me !

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I see Robbie has made a few trades recently, longs and shorts

 

Including Centamin a stock I have looked at in the past.

 

Not sure about Booker however ! Still Im sure he knows better than me !

I've been surprised that a lot of his trades still seem to keep on making money even when the market is falling. Don't think he has ever been in a situation where everything was turning red. I may be wrong, but he does seem to get it right a high percentage of the time.

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he's holding Dragon Oil and suggesting the 455p bid is going to be rejected, I also thought it was very low, talk of £6 when the natural gas comes online.
\

 

Dragon Oil

 

they are getting a bit heatedover on the

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail%3Fc...ay%3Ddiscussion

 

about this + someone has set up

 

http://www.savedragon.com/?page_id=70

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\

 

Dragon Oil

 

they are getting a bit heatedover on the

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail%3Fc...ay%3Ddiscussion

 

about this + someone has set up

 

http://www.savedragon.com/?page_id=70

 

I think that some of the UK oil equipment services and distribution stocks are looking attractive as short term plays (or even long term depending on your investing/trading bias). Amec, Petrofac, Hunting, John Wood Group and Wellstream Holdings are all good companies that look to have some upside. They are the type of companies that the paper tipsters usually say buy on weakness. NT has made a packet out of some of these oil companies.

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Dragon oil take over rejected which I'm quite pleased about, I'm hopefully looking to add to my oil position if we get a further sell off along with the strengthening of the dollar which is taking place. If Emirates National Oil now sell off their holding this may get really knocked down.

 

I've also noticed NT has added Afren last week to his ISA, I wonder if this is going to be another Heritage Oil or a Hardy Oil? I've added it to my watch list.

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Dragon oil take over rejected which I'm quite pleased about, I'm hopefully looking to add to my oil position if we get a further sell off along with the strengthening of the dollar which is taking place. If Emirates National Oil now sell off their holding this may get really knocked down.

 

I've also noticed NT has added Afren last week to his ISA, I wonder if this is going to be another Heritage Oil or a Hardy Oil? I've added it to my watch list.

It looks like one to follow. Mind you, whenever the oil sector has a shakeout you could say that about a lot of companies producing the black gold.

 

28.09.09 :-3.25, (74.25) Afren PLC said the success of companies like Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) near its own assets in west Africa raises the prospect of it making major finds there. Chief Executive Osman Shahenshah told Dow Jones Newswires Tullow's huge discoveries in west Africa aren't far from its own holdings in Ivory Coast and Ghana, where it plans to drill in a major exploration campaign over the next 18 months. Afren's block in Ivory Coast is on the border with Ghana and Tullow's 1.2 billion barrel Jubilee field is on the other side of that border, he said. "That's very exciting for us," Shahenshah said. Earlier this month Tullow and its partner Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) said they made a major discovery called Venus off the coast of Sierra Leone, raising the prospect of further finds in an area stretching through the waters of Liberia, Ivory Coast and Ghana. "Increasingly, with every drilling success, of which there have been four or five in the past three months, that raises the prospectivity of our acreage and lowers the risk," Shahenshah said.

 

http://www.sharecrazy.com/share2607share/s...er&epic=AFR

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Dragon oil take over rejected which I'm quite pleased about, I'm hopefully looking to add to my oil position if we get a further sell off along with the strengthening of the dollar which is taking place. If Emirates National Oil now sell off their holding this may get really knocked down.

 

I've also noticed NT has added Afren last week to his ISA, I wonder if this is going to be another Heritage Oil or a Hardy Oil? I've added it to my watch list.

 

I am in Dragon Oil - but Investors Chronicle made a comment that Emirates National Oil is majority owner and could if it wants re-domecile DGO offshore somewhere which will make its shares painful to trade and from where it could try again using a different stock exchange rule where its majority shares could be voted

 

a prospect that makes me a little nervous + same thought repeated here

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/11...agon-oil-offer/

 

The question now is what action the stung majority-owner will take. A particularly aggressive option would be to re-domicile Dragon Oil’s listing to somewhere beyond the reach of Ireland’s Takeover Panel, although that would require another shareholder vote.

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Well never thought i'd see this.....Robbie's back and guess the latest book he's promoting.

 

Here's a very topical one: The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets by Peter Schiff.

 

The book is all about how to keep portfolios up in a down market. He focusses a lot on how to play commodities and win with some sensible advice especially on natural resources and precious metals. He is very much a realist and there is no rubbish here: some straight talking and some interesting strategies.

 

Everyone who invests should think seriously about keeping portfolios up in bad times so this book should be read.

 

Well worth picking up at this link:

 

The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets

 

The main board would be impressed :lol:

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Well never thought i'd see this.....Robbie's back and guess the latest book he's promoting.

 

 

 

The main board would be impressed :lol:

 

I think it is probably one of his sidelines that he makes a bit of money from.

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New year Robbie Burns, Naked Trader outlook.

 

Markets

 

It feels like about a century since I wrote about the markets! After making some huge sums in 2009 my aim while on holiday was to actually have a holiday and not spend all day on the laptop.

 

I surprised myself by letting go and did hardly anything except check in from time to time just in case. Mrs NT was amazed. "What the hell," I said. "I can afford some losses.." Of course I said it way too smugly and it would have served me right if all my stocks had crashed. Take that you smug git!

 

Some days I never even looked at all. Amazing. However given the portfolio was packed with strong stuff there wouldn't have been much need anyway.

 

While I am no forecaster I do reckon this year could be quite flat and picking the right stocks is going to be important. I'm going to guess markets will end up not doing much this year.

 

I think with low interest rates and QE we're unlikely to see another really massive crash but equally I can't see where the massive upside is coming from either once the current money has gone in.

 

But I do think some individual companies could have a good year and I hope to be in those. Indeed some of the companies I had a lot of success with in 2009 could have further upside to them which is why I'm still sticking in there with some of them.

 

============================

 

Goodness me. An amazing start to the year so far with huge profits rolling in. However they are only on paper and it's not really a profit till it's banked.

 

I have to say it's getting quite tempting to sell the lot and take the massive profits by the end of January and then relax and do some origami till September.

 

http://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/index.htm?id=234

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