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Apple Inc (AAPL) : Is it a great short now?

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(from the TFNN thread)

 

Somebody called "Jonathon from Great Britain" phoned into TFNN today.

 

He mentioned the faltering housing market, "one year behind the US." (indeed)

 

He's Short AAPL, it seems. One of the "four horsemen"

 

Bud Rolfs expects "one more rally" in the market, and in Apple,

which he thinks could carry the stock to just over $200.

 

Here's my own chart:

 

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... update : 3months : 10 days

 

aa2rv3.gif : updating charts

 

I agree that AAPL could be a good stock to be short soon - but maybe not just yet.

 

The falling volume on the most recent rise is a clear bearish factor. But the structure doesnt look finished.

I can count only three waves in the latest rally up from $150. The recent dip looks like a fourth wave correction,

rather than the beginning of a major selloff. (Though I cannot rule that out yet.) An ideal short might be if

we see a new high on even lighter volume, And, yes, we could easily see the $200+ mentioned by Bud Rolfs.

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Somebody called "Jonathon from Great Britain" phoned into TFNN today.

He mentioned the faltering housing market, "one year behind the US." (indeed)

Great analysis DB. Wasn't that guy great? Inciteful. Passionate. Tee Hee.

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Great analysis DB. Wasn't that guy great? Inciteful. Passionate. Tee Hee.

 

Yeah. Whoever he was, we may need to thank him for a good shorting idea.

 

(BTW, has he called before to talk about UK property ?)

 

What do you reckon, Jan. or Apr. $200 puts?? Maybe half my money in each?

 

Some prices, with AAPL at $188.69 : (VIX now is near 24%; VXN: 27% ):

 

APVMT Jan.$200p : $18.10 ( 9.1%) = $11.31 IV, $ 5.79 (2.90%)

APVPT Apr.$200p : $27.90 (13.9%) = $11.31 IV, $16.59 (8.30%)

 

ATM-- Jan.$189p : $11.90 (est.) :: 5.95% /.4 x2 = 29.8%

= = =

 

Maybe we can make this trade a "GEI Sport", as we did with calls on BP a year or so ago.

I think many of us made good money on those trades.

 

I won'y but here, but will wait for the usual year-end Santa Rally, which might even start today.

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Geronimo...?

 

Almost there?

Day High 200.00 (mistake? more like $193)

Day Low 189.54

Previous Close 191.83

 

= = =

 

UPDATE...

Some prices, with AAPL at $192.27 : (VIX now is near 22%; VXN: 25% ):

 

APVMT Jan.$200p : $15.40 ( 7.7%) = $ 7.73 IV, $ 6.67 (3.33%)

APVPT Apr.$200p : $25.50 (12.8%) = $ 7.73 IV, $17.77 (8.89%)

 

ATM-- Jan.$192.5p : $11.25 (est.) :: 5.84% /.4 x2 = 29.2%

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I can't believe you are talking about shorting AAPL! :blink:

 

This is a very strong stock in my view and whilst I can see a general correction in equities at some point soon there are far better candidates to short than Apple, have you got an iPhone? if not get one it will change your mind, this company is on fire as far as I can see. Computing is changing and they are leading the way. If you want to go short on tech try MSFT or Yahoo! or perhaps now the iPhone is set to take over the mobile markets RIMM the makers of Blackberry.

 

In my view Apple is part of the golden three: GOOG, AAPL, and BIDU. You might find it interesting how closely their share prices have followed each other in the past few months perhaps this creates an opportunity? As I am sure it is obvious I have been an small investor in all three for a long time.

 

I look forward to hearing more on this from you.

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hmmmmm

 

really like APVPT Apr.$200p : $25.50 (12.8%) = $ 7.73 IV, $17.77 (8.89%)

 

If we get over $ 195 I may have to pick it up :blink:

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I can't believe you are talking about shorting AAPL! :blink:

 

This is a very strong stock in my view and whilst I can see a general correction in equities at some point soon there are far better candidates to short than Apple, have you got an iPhone?...

 

AAPL is a fine company, but maybe its good prospects are in the price,

and there may be zero room for any disappointment

 

look what happened to GS when it announced those great earnings

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The odds on an Apple flash laptop

At next month’s Macworld show, will the trendsetter say goodbye to hard drives?

 

applemacbookprorr0.jpg

 

Apple’s MacBook Pro could get a storage upgrade soon. Image: Apple

 

What do you get when you cross an iPod with a Mac?

 

A super-slim laptop that uses chip-based flash memory in place of a spinning hard drive, of course. If the rumors are right, Apple (AAPL) will unveil one at the annual Macworld confab next month.

 

Before you begin salivating from gadget lust however, be forewarned. The rumors should be taken with a grain of salt (or a whole tub of it if you have one handy) — and not just because Apple prognosticators have predicted for years that an ultra-light dream machine is right around the corner.

 

The real reason to doubt is this: If Steve Jobs unveils a flash-based laptop in January, it could be his gutsiest move since the iPod nano. Why would a FlashBook be such a gamble? Because while it’s a cool idea, it’s not clear whether enough customers would pay the premium Apple would inevitably charge for such cutting-edge technology.

 

Yes, flash storage helps a laptop to do cool tricks like slim down, boot up faster and extend battery life. But there are tradeoffs too. For instance, flash handles data differently than a hard drives does, so software workarounds are needed for heavy-duty tasks like video editing. Marketing VP Greg Joswiak mentioned the storage performance issue to me during an Apple event this past summer, which suggests that the company is weighing the pros and cons.

 

There’s also price. Consider that the MacBook Pro, Apple’s professional laptop, already starts at $2,000 with a 120-gigabyte hard drive. How much of a premium would a flash drive add? For a clue, take a look at Sony’s Vaio TZ Series, which includes models with 48GB and 32GB flash drives. Models with the flash drive option can easily cost $900 to $1,300 more, with a third of the storage space. As Apple seeks to expand its market share, it has to be careful about adding features that put its wares out of reach to all but the fattest wallets.

 

But don’t take this to mean Apple won’t put flash in its laptops at all. The company is notorious for getting components at bargain prices, thanks to the negotiating chops of CEO Jobs and the logistics prowess of chief operating officer Tim Cook. Because of the iPod and iPhone, Apple is already a very important customer of Samsung, the world’s largest provider of flash memory — so the company is in as good a position as anyone to get the best deal if it decides to add flash to the mix.

 

And Jobs is clearly not afraid to take chances; don’t forget the bold move Apple made with the iPod nano. Even though the hard drive-based iPod mini was at the height of its popularity, Apple replaced it with the flash-based iPod nano and a new design — a risk that boosted the gadget’s popularity even further.

 

If you can pay for the parts, flash-based laptops can deliver some sweet surprises. I recently spent some time with a laptop running Microsoft (MSFT) Windows XP with an Intel (INTC) Core 2 Duo processor, which Samsung sent me to demonstrate the performance of its 2.5-inch NAND flash storage drive. Though the laptop itself didn’t have a slim design to take advantage of the flash, I did notice that it went about its business silently, even as I launched and shut down programs. As a longtime laptop user, I’ve gotten used to hearing the pesky whir of a hard drive when I switch tasks, so the peace and quiet was a weird thrill.

 

Those kinds of benefits have led some high-tech observers to think Apple will add flash storage to its Mac recipe sooner than later. Richard Doherty, director of research at the Envisioneering Group consulting firm, thinks Apple is likely developing a flash-based touch-screen laptop reminiscent of the iPhone, which people in the graphics and publishing industries could use to share ideas. “The multi-touch technology is too good for just a 3.5-inch phone,” Doherty says. “If it’s not at Macworld, I think it’s something in the cards for the next year.”

 

Doherty also pointed out that because Apple controls both its hardware and its operating system, it could probably squeeze better performance out of a flash-based Mac than competitors would get out of Windows laptops. And it could be slimmer and more durable; a flash-based laptop would run significantly cooler than a machine with a hard drive, so engineers would not have to worry as much about adding design elements to help dissipate heat. If Apple doesn’t want to build a laptop with an all-flash hard drive, the company could take a gradual approach as well, and employ a new breed of “hybrid drives” that use a combination of flash storage and a traditional hard drive.

 

Whatever the solution, Steve Jobs will need to summon heavy doses of both engineering and marketing magic to turn an inevitably pricy flash-based laptop into a must-have item. Still, those who dream of seeing one on the Macworld stage next month can take heart; for Apple fans, January is when dreams sometimes come true.

 

/see- http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/...oney_topstories

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Apple Inc (AAPL) : Is it a great short now?

 

It's getting close. Anything above $200 and certainly above $205, with stop at $208.50. I've been long since c $183 and will close out v soon.

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Apple Inc (AAPL) : Is it a great short now?

 

It's getting close. Anything above $200 and certainly above $205, with stop at $208.50. I've been long since c $183 and will close out v soon.

 

Right you are!

I missed AAPL yesterday.

 

Here's the close: 198.57 Change: -0.38 / Percent Change: -0.19%

High: 202.96 Low: 197.80 Volume: 28,391,353

 

Not a bad performance on such a negative market day. (SPX: 1,476.27 Change: -21.39 / -1.43%)

The volume was weak on the move up from $179. But the structure doesnt look right.

I see only 3-waves, so there's potential for another small wave up after a brief wave 4 correction.

 

A rally early in the new year might finish it.

 

- -

 

OPTION UPDATE...

Some prices, with AAPL at $198.57 : (VIX now is near 20.3%; VXN: 21.3% ):

 

APVMT Jan.$200p : $ 9.90 ( 5.0%) = $ 1.43 IV, $ 8.47 (4.24%)

APVPT Apr.$200p : $20.00 (10.0%) = $ 1.43 IV, $18.57 (9.28%)

 

ATM-est: Jan.$198.5p : $ 9.35 (est.) :: 4.71%

ATM-est: Apr.$198.5p : $19.30 (est.) :: 9.72%

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Nice short, FP

 

AAPL: 180.05 Change: -14.88

Open: 191.45 High: 193.00 Low: 178.89

Volume: 51,986,125

Percent Change: -7.63%

 

Pity I missed the obvious sell over $200

 

= =

Put: APVMT Jan.$200p : was $ 9.90 , closed at $22.70

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The Late Dec. peak in Apple, was not confirmed by other stocks

 

aa1oq2.gif

 

...In hindsight, that was a great selling window

 

Did you stick with your AAPL shorts, Financial Planner?

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It's done now. Sell the hell out of it.

 

I think they could still pull up to retest the top.

BTW, why APPL ? GOOG looks also good for shorts.

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It's done now. Sell the hell out of it.

May 9 - $183.45

Today - $92.99

 

It took a while... but a great trade in the end.

 

 

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Apple's Old High - to be tested today (on the opening?)

 

Apple Inc

Thursday, December 27, 2007

 

Closing Price: 198.57

Open: 198.95

High: 202.96

Low: 197.80

Volume: 28,393,800

 

Five Year chart : Weekly AAPL chart

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Apple's Old High - to be tested today (on the opening?)

Apple Inc / Thursday, December 27, 2007 : Closing Price: 198.57

Open: 198.95 / High: 202.96 / Low: 197.80

Volume: 28,393,800

Five Year chart : Weekly AAPL chart

Here's AAPL ... update : last 2 years : 10days

aa1h.gif

 

One way we might get a top today, is if AAPL GAPS UP, and then sells off all day

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