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Apple Inc (AAPL) : Is it a great short now?

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Here's AAPL ... update : last 2 years : 10days

 

 

One way we might get a top today, is if AAPL GAPS UP, and then sells off all day

 

 

i don't know about AAPL, but AMZN gaped up on friday. may end with OOPS pattern (or island top)

At its current levels, Amazon trades at 56 times estimated earnings for the next four quarters. Its closest rival -- online merchant eBay carries a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14.6, based on its current share price.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/cb...ncoms-amzn.html

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This chart speaks of an...

 

Apple Double Top? ... update ... 10day-chart

zzzzr.gif

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Just been looking at the Apple chart ..

 

Apart from wondering why I didnt buy at below $10 in 2003.

 

Look at the monthly on a log basis. An awesome diagonal in tha latter stages (possibly - of course). Targets 517.8 223.6% extension, 569.7 (250%) and 668 (300%)

 

Suggests a deep retracement - so $100 soon? :D

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Anyone look at this?

 

Pierced the top of the diagonal nicely, before reversing and closing below, 5% turnaround.

 

Nice reversal candle yesterday on huge volume.

 

Apple down, market down

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from ZeroHedge;

 

 

"Is AAPL's 29-Year Trend-Line Signalling A Correction?

 

Presented with little comment except to note the incredible 29 year-long projection of the mid-80s trend-line (on the log-scale chart of AAPL share price) perhaps offers some resistance and the corrective 'echoes' that have occurred at these inflections before."

 

20120329_AAPL29.png"

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from ZeroHedge;

 

 

"Is AAPL's 29-Year Trend-Line Signalling A Correction?

 

Presented with little comment except to note the incredible 29 year-long projection of the mid-80s trend-line (on the log-scale chart of AAPL share price) perhaps offers some resistance and the corrective 'echoes' that have occurred at these inflections before."

 

20120329_AAPL29.png"

 

A misleading trendline. The actual trendline, AAPL had already popped over, c. 530.

The 5 wave diagonla from '98 looks better IMO

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As the ultimate pro-PC/anti-Apple person I have ever known, even I have just caved in and bought an IPad - a sure sign of a contrarian top!

 

But in all seriousness, what do they have in the product pipeline? New versions of the iphone/ipad are just preaching to the choir, and ultimately competitors will eat into their market share and erode their margins.

 

For now though, the uptrend is intact, leading the overall (US) bull market.

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To keep this going they would need to bring out a whole load of new gadgets for the inteconnected world - monitors for fridges -food, electric consumption, etc linked to the Iphone ipad et al - think the Apple controlled home !

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AAPL / Apple Corp chart ... Weekly chart : Daily chart

 

17099458.gif

 

Last week's break (of 1yr/52wk MA) could be serious !

 

(From EW Market Service):

 

Impossible?: Apple (AAPL) Going The Way Of RIMM!.

You might be surprised how what is seemingly unthinkable at the time, can look so obvious ten years later.

So yes, Apple is very likely just the an echo of the RIMM bubble, only a few years later.

We've seen this movie before and we know how it ends - maybe we're all just still in the denial phase about that right now.

 

To find out more, please log-in to view the Weekend US Market Forecast for November 9, 2012 which is now available.

=== === ===

ewms-89x33.gif

 

Free Trial Membership

For a limited time get full and immediate access to the complete range of subscriber-only market and currency video forecast services simply by entering your name and a valid email below. Once you enter your details and confirm your email address you can immediately start your free 14-day trial – no personal or credit card details needed. Simple.

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To keep this going they would need to bring out a whole load of new gadgets for the inteconnected world - monitors for fridges -food, electric consumption, etc linked to the Iphone ipad et al - think the Apple controlled home !

 

Interesting you say that, I believe they will branch out into other areas such as these but also perhaps others not yet considered. The ipod was successful in building the Apple brand name, the iphone and ipad were highly successful, the question is what's next?

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POINTS OF VIEW

----------

 

AAPL Apple: The Law Of Large Numbers And Declining Margins Point Towards Average Stock Returns by Tim Travis

AAPL Apple: Why The Recent Drop Is Unjustified by Mathias Holmstrøm

AAPL The Variance Between Apple's Intrinsic Value And Analyst Estimates by Derek Chipman

AAPL Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too by David Weinstein

 

While many market participants look at Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) growth rate and price to earnings ratios, and believe the company is incredibly cheap, I tend to believe it is closer to fairly valued. I believe the uniqueness of the company's products is fading, as it tends to happen in the consumer technology industry. While I believe it is safe to assume that net income will be greater next year than this year, I'm less sure the further we look out into the future. While I may prove to be misguided, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that adjusted for inflation net income will be less ten years from now than it is now. This is no sure thing, but the same momentum and innovation that caused the company to meteorically rise, can work against it as once fat margins, decline over time. Competitors are already engaging in practices that ultimately shift the value proposition from the original equipment manufacturer (OEM), to the consumer, via selling products below cost. If you look at this history in once-hot sectors such as flat screen TV's, PC's, and normal handsets, the gravitational impact on commoditized products profit margins can be clearly observed. The law of large numbers dictates that the growth rate must slow, so to expect anything like the recent past in terms of stock price appreciation, is overly optimistic.

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I think they're fairly valued too. They are exactly like MSFT 15 years ago.

A fine company that has redefined portable consumer technology, but the nature of competition means that it will be impossible to maintain such dominance going forward.

 

Consumer tastes can turn on a dime. Remember when the crackberry was the must have gadget?

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Mighty AAPL is on its knees - chartwise at least - and looking like it will lead the entire market into a new phase decline phase.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=aapl&insttype=&freq=&show=&x=0&y=0

 

505.85

-1.39%

 

 

Weinstein's bull market/bear market indicators say that if the market's leading stock does not make new highs after 4 months, consider the trend to have changed.

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It could come roaring back in the New Year, when all the heavy tax-selling is done.'

 

But no promises for that

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Have you not seen this?

http://www.zerohedge...demand-collapse

AAPL stock is currently trading at or just under the $500 "generational bottom" in the premarket session, or nearly a one year low, following news first from Japan's Nikkei that Apple has slashed orders for iPhone 5 components, and then from the WSJ, that demand for the flagship phone was far less than expected, resulting in a cut in orders in the supply chain. Per the WSJ: "Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the January-March quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had previously planned to order, the people said. The Cupertino, Calif., company has also cut orders for components other than screens, according to one of the people. Apple notified the suppliers of the order cut last month, the people said."

 

Well, whaddya know, the lemmings are not rushing out to replace their iPhones whenever AAPL pulls another model out of the hat. They must be starving and/or living in cardboard city to not replace their current iPhones. Perhaps they'll have to resort to selling their bodies to get the iPhone 5.

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I feel that 500 is psychologically important. If that goes, there is a massive GAP from Jan 2012 at 440 that needs filling.

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As the ultimate pro-PC/anti-Apple person I have ever known, even I have just caved in and bought an IPad - a sure sign of a contrarian top!

 

But in all seriousness, what do they have in the product pipeline? New versions of the iphone/ipad are just preaching to the choir, and ultimately competitors will eat into their market share and erode their margins.

 

For now though, the uptrend is intact, leading the overall (US) bull market.

 

I claim my prize!

 

The iPad is superb, btw. ^_^

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