gwizzie Posted July 29, 2008 Report Share Posted July 29, 2008 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Interesting chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 30, 2008 Report Share Posted July 30, 2008 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Interesting chart Indeed. It would appear that the chart reflects underground natgas storage across the whole of the US: "This report tracks U.S. natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities. The weekly stocks generally are the volumes of working gas as of the report date. Changes in reported stock levels reflect all events affecting working gas in storage, including injections, withdrawals, and reclassifications between base and working gas" It is very interesting to note that stocks are 12.7% down on this time last year, including a massive 17.3% down on last year in the producing states (which presumably store up ahead of onward distribution to the consuming states). Also, stocks are only marginally down against the five year average which is in stark contrast to stocks being well above average this time last year (just ahead of an upward surge in prices by 151% over 11 months between end Aug07 and 1 July 08) Obviously these stats could be interpreted a number of ways and I note there are longer term figures going back to 1994 on here which may give some further insight. Suffice to say with the longer term oil/gas ratio appearing to be so out of wack and some apparently very bullish low stocks figures (compared with last year) a cold winter this year could send prices sharply upwards again. edit: Having said al that, the price of NG seems to be sooo volatile though, even a silver lover like me comes out in a cold sweat when confronted with a decision to invest in NG ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted July 30, 2008 Report Share Posted July 30, 2008 Suffice to say with the longer term oil/gas ratio appearing to be so out of wack and some apparently very bullish low stocks figures (compared with last year) a cold winter this year could send prices sharply upwards again. Not only that, a warmer summer has the same effect on demand because of all the a/c and electricity use. Moreover, i am hearing reports that there is a 1 in 3 chance of a Cat 3 hurricane in the G.O.M. this year. I dont know how significant those odds are though Will post some more interesting charts that i picked up. I think you are on to something with silver though, it creates a tolerence to risk perhaps way above what we would normally asscociate with a good investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 31, 2008 Report Share Posted July 31, 2008 GW i think you are also on to something in terms of the new discoveries in US. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1217463587...=googlenews_wsj I'm not convinced though that congress will be able to manage regulation through effectively in order to take full advantage of new finds in time to prevent further price rises. ps. See post below which I posted inthe "Frizzer" thread yeterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted July 31, 2008 Report Share Posted July 31, 2008 Interesting money morning email from Frizzer this morning on bull and bear market charts and golden crosses on moving averages (I won't copy in here in the interests of not being sued by Bill Bonner). He goes so far as to say you can use it in markets you know nothing about... All good stuff, but I am equally galled at the synopsis of juniors being in a bear market and wondered what instances we might find of particular markets giving 'false' signals or perhaps that these signals may indicate bull and bear 'phases' (which may be short lived). Here's one, but admittedly from a market which appears to have quite a split personality: Under the model we are discussing a golden cross (or as I prefer a "dead cross" on the downtrend) of the 34 WMA crossing the 52 WMA to the downside with the actual spot price below that, seemed to form indicating a bear market trend for Natural Gas prices at the end of May 2006. True to the model we got a bounce to nearly the 52 WMA in early August 2006 with the price reaching about $8.70 per mbtu. Following this a big 52% fall was seen with prices hitting $4.10 on 25th Sept 2006. Around the middle of Feb 07 though a new godlen cross was formed indicating a new trend to the upside with prices eventually hitting $13.70 around 7/7/08. Interestingly, today the price has corrected to the 52 WMA. So in this instance a recorded bear market (or at least a bear 'phase') lasted about 9 months. I hope the Juniors market can show the same resolve ! ps. Who would use this model now then to predict natural gas prices will bounce off the 52 WMA, as the model indicated we are in a bull market, even if you don't know anything about the market ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted July 31, 2008 Report Share Posted July 31, 2008 GW i think you are also on to something in terms of the new discoveries in US. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1217463587...=googlenews_wsj I'm not convinced though that congress will be able to manage regulation through effectively in order to take full advantage of new finds in time to prevent further price rises. ps. See post below which I posted inthe "Frizzer" thread yeterday. Agree and i'm banking on it. It'll be a while before they take their finger out Besides the storage factor on the price i thought these spikes were interesting. I can only think that the spike in 2003 was a result of the Iraq invasion and in 2005 Katrina and rita hit. Bit of an updated chart and some further insight This is my favourite chart, its a bit outdated so i'll be on the hunt for something more recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG Posted July 31, 2008 Report Share Posted July 31, 2008 http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/e...tural-gas_N.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted July 31, 2008 Report Share Posted July 31, 2008 http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/e...tural-gas_N.htm These sound like the words of someone trying to dismiss a shortage, whats going on there? I'd like to see the calculation to see how they got 118 years. Bacteria in a bottle springs to mind. The U.S. has enough natural gas resources to last up to 118 years, or 2,247 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), says the study by Navigant Consulting for the American Clean Skies Foundation. That group is largely funded by natural gas companies. I suspect Natural gas companies are really trying to convince the public to look favourably at it as an alternative to oil and it seems to be getting lots of exposure thanks to mr pickens. But McClendon says gas is so abundant there's no need to channel it from power plants I was going to call him an idiot for missing the point of obtaining power from wind, but then i see he has an obvious VI Aubrey_McClendon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLASH Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Natural Gas trading at $4.67. To me this looks very cheap. Is anyone buying at the moment? ETF NGSP looks interesting at these levels although i'm not sure if it has the same pitfalls as the Oil ETF's. http://www.etfsecurities.com/cslgb/etfs_natural_gas_gb.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted May 29, 2009 Report Share Posted May 29, 2009 Not according to a recent FT report + Also a brand new LNG storage facility opened in Wales can handle/store 20% of UK Gas requirements ! http://www.ft.com/cms/s/28e2e490-48c5-11de...144feabdc0.html US LNG imports put pressure on struggling domestic producers By Sheila McNulty in Houston Published: May 26 2009 05:25 | Last updated: May 26 2009 05:25 US imports of liquefied natural gas have almost doubled since the start of the year, putting pressure on a domestic market already hit by weak demand and falling prices . Yet the string of massive global production projects feeding this rise in imports have only just begun to come online, so the flood is expected to grow. The poor state of the global economy has left the natural gas with no place else to go. “The US can act as a sink,” says Jon Wolff, analyst at Credit Suisse Equity Research. The US has abundant storage facilities, but the amount piling into that storage already is higher than its five-year average, so it may well all be full by the autumn. This sets the stage for acute pressure on already low domestic natural gas prices, which have fallen from just over $13 per million British thermal units in July 2008 to less than $4 today. “There’s too much gas in the market,” says Nikos Tsafos, analyst in PFC Energy’s upstream and gas group. Many domestic companies have stopped drilling, pushing the rigs in use down more than 50 per cent in recent months and setting some producers on the edge of bankruptcy. Because most US drilling is done by small companies, with fewer than 20 employees, many have little or no cashflow and no available credit to continue drilling. Moody’s Investors Service issued a report in May listing the 13 exploration and production companies it covers that have weak borrowing base support. This is crucial to operations, as banks use annual reviews of company debt to cut permittable levels below existing borrowings. Among them were Brigham Exploration, which is nearly fully drawn; Delta Petroleum, which has had to reduce its bank debt; Energy Partners, which has had its borrowing base reduced; and Dune Energy, which is selling assets. Chesapeake Energy, one of the biggest gas producers in the US, has said that it is plugging some production. If others follow that lead, it would help ease the oversupply in the market and would support natural gas prices. But LNG flooding in to take its place will continue to worsen the oversupply picture, putting further downward pressure on domestic natural gas prices. “US production has to come down to stabilise prices,” Mr Tsafos says. “[but] LNG imports are going to complicate that.” Michael Newport, chief executive of Mainland Resources, a small oil and gas exploration and production company, says the industry hopes US natural gas prices will recover to $7 or $8 per million BTU next year, though some are predicting a fall to $2. Regardless, he will continue drilling to capitalise on the uptick in the US economy, when it comes. With thousands of small natural gas producers across the US, the country is almost completely independent in natural gas, with about 85 per cent of the natural gas used in the US produced in the country. Many find it disturbing that foreign producers of LNG are gaining a foothold in the US. When Gazprom, the state-run Russian natural gas company, said this month that it would import 20m tons of Russian LNG into the US, the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States objected. “The US is awash with domestically produced natural gas,” says John Harpole, president of Mercator Energy and a member of the association’s board. “Flooding a market with a foreign product when prices are already low has proven disastrous in the past,” he adds. But the trend is poised to continue. With huge LNG projects in Russia, Yemen, Indonesia and above all in Qatar expected to start up this year, there is a flood of LNG coming on to the market. Murray Douglas, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, says that developers may not be bringing projects online with the same urgency as they would have, had prices been at last year’s highs. However, they are still moving forward, as any delays will adversely impact the economics of their projects. So the flood of LNG to the US will continue. Mr Tsafos forecasts that US imports of LNG will more than double by the year-end, while some are predicting as much as a five-fold increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted May 29, 2009 Report Share Posted May 29, 2009 Not good news for the couple of small caps on AIM planning to use empty oil fields as gas storage facilities. I wasnt aware of this until the other day An FT report brought it to my attn - was very negative on near term prospects for LNG prices http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/europe-l.../article-182253 Europe's largest LNG terminal opens in UK Published: Wednesday 13 May 2009 Europe's largest terminal for receiving giant tankers of liquefied natural gas officially opened on 12 May in Wales, against a backdrop of ample supplies and weak demand. Background: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is one of the world's fastest growing sources of energy. Global LNG demand is expected to reach approximately 470 million tons per annum (MTA) by 2030, an increase of over 200 percent since 2005. The South Hook terminal at Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire in Wales represents a technological milestone and will make additional supplies of cleaner-burning natural gas available to the UK and the rest of Europe. South Hook LNG Terminal Company Ltd. is owned by Qatar Petroleum (67.5%), ExxonMobil (24.15%) and Total (8.35%). It is part of the larger 'Qatargas 2' joint venture, which supplies gas to the UK from the North Field off the coast of Qatar, and is brought ashore to be processed and liquefied at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar. It is then loaded onto a fleet of world-class Q-Max and Q-Flex LNG ships and transported to the UK. The terminal adds to the UK's LNG import capacity and energy diversity, and will have the ability to deliver up to two billion cubic feet of gas daily into the natural gas grid when it reaches full operational capacity, at the end of 2009. The terminal, which is being completed in two phases, includes five LNG storage tanks, a regasification plant, ship unloading systems and a jetty to allow the berthing of the world's largest LNG vessels. As Robert S. Franklin, vice-president of production at ExxonMobil recently said in Brusssels (EurActiv 27/03/09), the company plans to open one more major LNG terminal, 16km offshore in Northern Italy. When it reaches its full capacity of 80bn cubic metres per year, it will provide 10% of Italy's total gas needs, Franklin said. More on this topic: LinksDossier: Energy Green Paper: What energy policy for Europe? News: Liquid Natural Gas in 'construction boom' Other related news: Europe urged to be 'visionary' with Ukraine Turkey to help push Nabucco ahead of rival pipeline Oil prices take centre stage at G8 meeting Russia alarmed by Ukraine's 'empty' gas stocks Russia adds final pieces to 'South Stream' puzzle The terminal - a joint venture between US major Exxon Mobil, state-run Qatar Petroleum and French energy group Total - can pump gas into the national grid at a rate of about 11 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year. It will be able to supply 21 bcm a year of gas once the second phase of the project is complete and the last of its five storage tanks enter service by the end of 2009, its project manager said. "The commissioning of the plant is done," Daniel Wieczynski told journalists at the inauguration on Tuesday of the terminal in south Wales, which was was attended by the Emir of Qatar and Britain's Queen Elizabeth II. Two of the storage tanks, each the size of London's Albert Hall concert venue, are already operational. The third is expected to come into service in June, the fourth in October and the fifth before the end of the year, Wieczynski added. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was embraced as a fuel for the future because in contrast to pipeline gas, it can be shipped anywhere in the world. But the infrastructure required is very expensive and demand has fallen significantly because of global economic slowdown. The chief executive of Qatargas predicted consumption of the fuel should begin to recover from early next year. "Yes, demand has gone down and we see more production coming, this will put pressure on prices. But we planned those projects on lower prices than we see in the market now," Faisal Mohammed Al-Suwaidi told reporters. Britain's annual gas demand stands at about 100 billion cubic metres, according to figures provided by British gas and electricity supplier Centrica. Following the decline of the nation's oil and gas production in the North Sea, about half of its needs are expected to come from imports this year. By 2017, LNG is expected to account for nearly 30 percent of Britain's total supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted May 29, 2009 Report Share Posted May 29, 2009 This was also good in FT, selected bits follow, More bullish on gas specific to the Gulf area - Sounds like pipelines are needed in area to carry the gas http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d4dffc4-48c5-11de...144feabdc0.html Middle East: Oil-rich region faces gas shortfall By Andrew England Published: May 26 2009 05:25 | Last updated: May 26 2009 05:25 It may seem a strange idea in the region of the world that is richest in hydrocarbons, but it is one that has been raising increasing concerns: the possibility of a critical gas shortage in Middle East. By some estimates, the cumulative supply shortfall for the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council up to 2015 will be at least 7,000bn cubic feet. Of the GCC members – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – only Qatar, which has the world’s third largest proven gas reserves and the largest natural gas field, can avoid the problem. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is also looking at developing new gas fields and building a pipeline to enable the emirate to utilise its offshore gas. Still, the fact that such a pipeline needs to be built “demonstrates that there was not an appreciation for the way that gas demand would grow, so I think the country has been caught a little off-guard by that”, acknowledges an official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted June 3, 2009 Report Share Posted June 3, 2009 Perhaps supply is dampening recovery but read this: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2009/0602.html The uptrend has now been formed by confirmation of a higher low. I think we are at the earley stages of a bull market which will last about a year. However, I would like to see the next high beat mid May's for confirmation, and indeed then the following low to be higher again than the low at the end of May. But then again I hold NGAS so am looking for signs... What do people think about the TA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 A Super Cheap Commodity By Chris Mayer 06/16/09 Gaithersburg, Maryland Natural gas is more than a place to hide. It is, simply put, super cheap. As most other commodities — including oil — have rallied, natural gas remains stuck in a bog. In fact, the ratio of the price of crude oil to the price of natural gas topped 18-to-1 recently, which we have not seen since 1990, according to Barron’s. The price of natural gas fell because there was too much of it. We are in a recession, after all. Industrial demand for natural gas has fallen through the floor and into the basement. But mindless zombies or congressional leaders (I repeat myself…) do not run this industry. Producers are cutting back. And the decline rates on those gushing shale gas plays (which helped contribute so much gas to the pool) are 60-75%. Meaning that if these producers don’t drill, the flow of gas from their wells will fall by that much in the first year. And they aren’t drilling — not as much. The rig count has collapsed. It has fallen much faster than in the 1981/82 collapse, the worst since the Great Depression and one that still makes old natural gas men cringe to this day. Another point: The marginal cost to produce natural gas for the vast majority of the industry is probably somewhere around $6-8. This next chart gives you a good snapshot of what the U.S. gas situation looks like. Right now, the spot price of natural gas is under $4 and sits right on the industry’s cash costs and well below marginal costs. In short, natural gas supply is going to start to dry up here really soon. Grab your natgas ideas before the rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted June 17, 2009 Report Share Posted June 17, 2009 With NG the problem is that unlike oil there is not so much of an international pipeline network However I remember Zappata George saying there was - or that one was coming Wonder if we can figure that out - if gas gets as portable as oil then that could open up a whole new future Best I found so far is this - but is 2003 yr http://www.planete-energies.com/content/oi...tation-gas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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