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drbubb

Royal Gold (RGLD) - Largest public Gold royalty co.

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LOOKING TO REPLACE my RGLD shares (that I sold)

 

With Jan $30.calls.

Cost may be between $9 - $9.50. ie at below where I sold them at $40 +

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I had a limt sell in place just below $40 for just over a third of my holding, so I managed to book some good profits from this. It's nice to see what I kept hold of still above the level I bought in at. I'm hoping for another fall , perhaps down towards $26 again. If we get it I'll plough some of my previous profits back in.

 

It looks like Bubb's reasoning about RGLD's relative immunity to rising costs was on the money, it's held up very well compared to others in this sector. This does make me slightly wary though, one more commodity price shock could panic investors out of this - and it's got a long way to fall compared to its peers.

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Royal Gold has been incredibly resistant during this time of de-leveraging. Most mining companies have dropped large amount over the last quarter, but RGLD has held up very well.

 

I am thinking that I may sell some to take profits to invest in the bargains around at the moment. I am also wondering as to why they have not been sold off, when everything else has.

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Hi, just booked a very healthy profit on RGLD. Thinking about it, I should have sold only 60% or so of my stock (my original investment) and let the remaining 40% run 'free'.

 

However I'm slightly itching to get some oil....

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BTW, keep this thread alive and say if you think this is the time to be back in.... (or if you think I'm a numpty for selling)

 

Background information

 

Ms Wanderer has often noted that I never sell when I'm ahead, so I'm taking the radical step of selling a winner and reorganising my losers. I've traded in half my silver ETF for Silver Wheaton.... and am about to buy Oil ETFs

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The top's blown off, so it will be very hard to see where this rally will run to. I've sold some more today at $46 and I'm also transferring it into SLW, which could be in for a monumental rally from here. I've also bought an array of juniors and LOIL.

 

I still have 50% of my original RGLD holding and I can't see anything which makes me inclined to sell it. It's nice to have a large holding in one of the few winners in this market.

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Marceau,

 

I've been loading up on SLW too recently. I'm half tempted to add again, but have just enjoyed a really healthy bounce in SLW over the last few days and am hesitant to jump in again at a higher price lest I pay the price for greediness.

 

Out of interest, why do you think SLW is a better bet than other shares (including Royal Gold) at the moment?

 

Wanderer

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Marceau,

 

I've been loading up on SLW too recently. I'm half tempted to add again, but have just enjoyed a really healthy bounce in SLW over the last few days and am hesitant to jump in again at a higher price lest I pay the price for greediness.

 

Out of interest, why do you think SLW is a better bet than other shares (including Royal Gold) at the moment?

 

Wanderer

 

 

The main reason I like SLW is that it has a very close business model to that of royal gold, with income derived from purchase options on the produce of other mining companies. That means that rising production costs or financing shortfalls are almost irrelevant. This has been the key reason RGLD has done so well when others have fallen, as they derive their profits from royalties and are suffering in the same way as explorers & producers.

 

SLW has been beaten down because of the greater deflation fear associated with silver and some doubts over the company's cash balance. I don't believe either of these factors are show stoppers, so I'm happy to invest. I haven't purchased any shares recently though, I'm planning on waiting for a retrace in the new year before buying.

 

My overall strategy on miners is to drip feed the buys in over a period of 6 months. That strategy certainly saved me some heartache on LOIL yesterday, as it reached new lows today on the further collapse of oil. The oil price bothers me a great deal, it's still not showing any sign of reacting to inflationary fears, which leads me to believe we're going to see another broad asset sell off in the not too distant future. I would assume gold will be safe given it's renewed role in the currency game, but everything else is at risk of further falls.

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Look at GLW also.

It hasnt kept up with SLW, but has potential if gold stays strong

I am now out of RGLD, preferring smaller gold stocks with production.

Their costs may be declining now.

 

My original reason for going heavy on RGLD was that it was immune to rising

mining costs

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Three similar fractals in RGLD/ Royal Gold

aa2c.gif

 

When the third completes, will it takeoff again?

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RGLD SUMMARY ----- ( Note $33.7mn Gain in 2009 )

 

Year - ended June 30 : -2003- : -2004- : -2005- : -2006- : -2007- : -2008- : -2009- : -2010- : -2011- :

Ave Gold: 252d.: 6/30 : $ 334. : $ 389. :: $ 423. : $ 525. :: $ 638. : $ 821. : $ 874. : $1089 :

Royalty Revenues...... : $ 15.8 : $ 21.4 :: $ 25.3 : $ 28.4 :: $ 48.4 : $ 66.3 : $ 73.8 :$136.6 :

Pct. of Ave.Gold 252d : 4.73% : 5.50% : 5.98% : 5.41% : 7.59% : 8.08 % : 8.44% :12.54%:

= = =

Costs: ops & g'l adm. : $ 1.96 : $ 2.92 :: $ 3.70 : $ 7.31 :: $ 9.09 :$10.87 :$10.90 :$18.83 :

Explor. & bus. dev'lop : $ 1.23 : $ 1.39 :: $ 1.89 : $ 3.40 :: $ 2.49 : $ 4.08 : $ 3.00 :: $ 3.50 :

Deprec.,depl., amort.. : $ 2.86 : $ 3.31 :: $ 3.21 : $ 5.10 :: $ 8.27: $18.36 :$32.58 : $53.79 :

Free Cash flow - A/R.. :$12.3e:$15.6e : $14.7e :$20.45 : $37.92: $52.86 : $61.71 :$100.1:

Cash Flow per share. : $ 0.58 : $ 0.74 :: $ 0.70 : $ 0.88 :: $ 1.51 : $ 1.70 : $ 1.75 : $ 2.30 :

R: Gold.252d/CFS.fd/ : : 575.9 :. 525.7 :. 694.2 : : 596.6 :. 422.5 : : 482.9 :: 499.4 : 473.5 :

= = =

Net inc. to com.sh'hld : $ 6.75 : $ 8.87 ::$11.45 :$11.35 : $19.72: $19.26 :$38.35*:$21.49:

Earnings per share.... : $ 0.34 : $ 0.43 :: $ 0.55 : $ 0.50 :: $ 0.79 : $ 0.62 : $ 1.09 : $ 0.49 :

Earns. fully dlluted..... : $ 0.33 : $ 0.42 :: $ 0.54 : $ 0.49 :: $ 0.79 : $ 0.61 : $ 1.07 : $ 0.49 :

Dividends per share.. : $ 0.10 : $ 0.15 :: $ 0.20 : $ 0.22 :: $ 0.25 : $ 0.28 : $ 0.30 : $ 0.34 :

Shares fd. wgt. aver.. : ==== : 21.1m :: 21.1m : 23.12m : 25.1m :31.05m : 35.3m : 43.6m :

Ratio: Gold /EPS.fd.... : 1012.1 :. 926.2 :. 783.3 : 1071.4 :. 807.6 :1345.9 :: 816.8 : 2222.4:

 

*2009 incl. Royalty portfolio restruct. Gain of $33.7mn

= = = = =

 

RGLD QUARTERLIES -----

 

Year - ended June 30 :: -2009- : -2010- : '10Qtr : Q1-'10 : Q2-'10 : Q3-'10 : Q4-'10 :: Q1-'11 : Q2-'11 :

Quarter - ends--------- ::-06/09- :-06/10- : ==== : 09 /'09 : 12 /'09 : 03 /'10 : 06 /'10 :: 09 /'10 : 12 /'10 :

Ave Gold: 252d.: 6/30 :: $ 874. : $1089 : $1100 : $0,960 : $1100 : $1,109 : $1150 :: $1,227 : $1369 :

Royalty Revenues...... :: $ 73.8 :$136.6 : $34.38: $26.11: $34.74 : $35.04: $40.67 :: $45.34 : Feb.2

Pct. of Ave.Gold 252d :: 8.44% :12.54%: Mult x4 : 10.9%: 12.63% : 12.6% : ==== : : 14.8 %= $50.6

= = = = =

Costs: ops & g'l adm. ::$10.90 :$18.83 :. $ 4.71 : $ 2.20 : .$ 4.61 : $ 5.34 : ==== ::. $ 3.72 :

Explor. & bus. dev'lop :: $ 3.00 :. $ 3.50 : $ 0.90 : $ 0.69 :. $ 2.83 :. $ 0.99 : ==== ::. $ 0.89 :

Deprec.,depl., amort.. ::$32.58 :$53.79 :$13.45: $11.08: $12.10 :$13.00 : $16.31 :: $18.93 : $19.00 :

Free Cash flow - A/R.. :: $61.71 :$100.1: $25.00: =====:$28.63 : $13.7 : $35.14 :: $40.80 :

Cash Flow per share. :: $ 1.75 : $ 2.30 : Mult x4: =====: $ 2.80 : $ 1.22 : ===== :: $ 2.95 :

R: AveGold./CFS.fd/ : : :: 499.4 :. 473.5 :. 500.0 : =====:. 392.9 : =====: ===== :: . 415.9= $3.29

= = = = =

Net inc. to com.sh'hld ::$38.35*:$21.49: $ 5.37 : $ 7.13 : $ 9.62 : ($1.23) : $16.31 :: $11.84 :

Earnings per share.... :: $ 1.09 : $ 0.49 : $ 0.12 :. $0.18 :. $0.24 : ($0.13) :. $ 0.21 ::. $ 0.22 :E:0.23

Earns. fully dlluted..... :: $ 1.07 : $ 0.49 : $ 0.12 : ===== :. $0.23 : ($0.13) : ===== :: . $ 0.21 :

Divs per sh/ jan.7 recd : $ 0.30 : $ 0.34 : $0.085:. $0.08 : $0.09 : $ 0.09 : ===== :: . $ 0.09 :. $0.11 :

Shares fd. wgt. aver.. : : 35.3m : 43.6m : 44.0m : 40.9m : 41.0m : 45.0m : ===== :: 55.25m:

Ratio: Gold /EPS.fd..... :: 816.8 : 2222.4: Mult x4: ===== : 1195.7 : ( neg.) : ===== :: 1460.7 : 1500

= = = = =

Year - ended June 30 ::-06/09 :-06/10 : ==== : 09 /09 : 12 /09 : 03 /10 : 06 /10 :: 09 /10 : 12 /10:

RGLD : Qtr.End price. :: $41.7 : $48.0 : $30.00 :$45.60 :$47.09 :$46.21:$48.00 :: $49.84 : $54.63

Net Asset Value /sh... :: $18.8 : $34.9 : $30.00 : $30.0 : $19.0 : $30.0 : $34.91 :: $34.88 :

Gold Reserves........... :: 50.0M: 78.6M : 75.0M : 50.0M : 64.3M : 78.4M : 78.6M : 78.6M :

Silver Reserves.......... :: 1000" : 1300" : 1200" : 1000" :: 1162" : 1300" : 1300" :

Gold Eqv.at: Ag/ 100... :: 60.0M: 60.0M : 60.0M : 60.0M : 75.9M : 91.4M : 91.6M :

Qtr. End shares O/S... :: 40.5M: 53.3M : 40.0M : 40.0M : 40.7M : 47.2M : 53.3M : 53.4M : 53.4M :

Per RGLD share......... :: 1.00o : 1.72o : 1.00o :: 1.00o : 1.00 o :1.94oz : 1.72oz : 1.72oz : 1.72oz :

Gold : Qtr.End price.... :: $ 941 :$1240 : Q.end :$1001 : $1104 : $1110 : $1240 : $1311 : $1410 :

Value : Gold Equiv...... :: ==== : $2131 : ==== : ==== : ==== : $2153 : $2131 : $2255 : 2425 :

Ratio: RGLD/ GE value: 10.0%: 2.25%: 2.00%: 2.00%: 2.00%: 2.15 %: 2.25% : 2.21% : 2.25% :

 

**special items: Q3-10, related to IRC acq; $36.1mn

 

RGLD vs. GLD / Royal Gold versus GLD-Gold etf ... update : 2yr-D-w/Earnings

zzzzr.gif

RGLD

zzzzo.gif

 

= = = = =

LINKS:

Corporate website : http://www.RoyalGold.com : RGLD-IR

Annual Report ...... : 2010 : http://www.b2i.cc/Document/856/115288.pdf

Stockhouse bboard : http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/forum...&table=LIST

AOL Summary Pg.. : http://finance.aol.com/quotes/royal-gold-i...orated/rgld/nas

Other chatboards... : http://www.smallcapwatch.com/RGLD

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LOOKING BACK (at expectations about 2010)

 

From the 2009 Annual Report:

This is a very exciting time for Royal Gold as we look into fiscal 2010. Th e Dolores mine commenced

commercial production during the fourth fiscal quarter and is expected to now begin providing meaningful

royalty revenue. At Peñasquito, Goldcorp recently announced the completion of construction for the first

sulfi de processing circuit that is expected to achieve commercial production in mid-fiscal 2010. And, Andacollo

is expected to complete construction of its new concentrator and ramp up to commercial production in the

second half of fiscal 2010.

 

We also strengthened our property pipeline by securing royalties on exciting projects scheduled for production

beyond fiscal 2010. St Andrew Goldfields is working to restart operations at the Holt mine in Canada. Osisko

Mining continues to advance the Canadian Malartic property and Barrick recently announced the decision to

commence construction of the Pascua-Lama project on the border of Chile and Argentina.

. . .

We have focused our portfolio on gold for decades and this strategy has been rewarding. In the past five fiscal

years, our share price rose 194%. In fiscal 2009 alone, our share price appreciated 33% as we benefited from

investors shifting from general equities to quality, secure, wealth-preservation investments. Th is sentiment

is expected to continue with the large increase of monetary liquidity, resulting in serious infl ation concerns

for the future. While most major global currencies are in expansion, gold production is contracting. Th ese

trends reinforce our belief that focusing on gold is well placed for the future.

 

/source-2009-AR: http://b2icontent.irpass.cc/856/99826.pdf?...7LUojmAKaJuc%3D

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