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US House price Data / Case-Shiller® Indices

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S&P: Home prices drop by record 15.8 pct. in May (YoY)

 

By J.W. ELPHINSTONE, AP Business Writer

 

NEW YORK - Home prices tumbled by the steepest rate ever in May, according to a closely watched housing index released Tuesday, as the housing slump deepened nationwide.

 

 

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped by 15.8 percent in May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

 

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that's happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.

 

Home values have fallen 18.4 percent since the 20-city index's peak in July 2006.

 

Nine metropolitan cities — Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Wash., Portland, Ore., and Washington, D.C. — posted record declines in May. And the value of housing in Detroit is now lower than it was in 2000.

 

But a possible bright spot in an otherwise dismal report, seven metros — Tampa, Fla., Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Dallas and Atlanta — showed smaller annual declines.

 

Las Vegas recorded the worst drop, with prices plunging 28.4 percent in the month. Miami came in a close second, with prices down 28.3 percent.

 

/see: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_bi_ge/home_prices

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Zillow Home Value Index Compared to OFHEO and Case-Shiller Indexes

By: Stan Humphries VP, Data & Analytics | March 18, 2008

 

There was an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago by David Wessel discussing differences between the housing index produced by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) and Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index. Since Zillow recently released our Q4 2007 Home Value Reports, I thought I’d extend Mr. Wessel’s analysis with a comparison of the Zillow Home Value Index (Zindex) to both the OFHEO and Case-Shiller numbers.

. . .

So, how does the Zindex compare to the two most common flavors of weighed repeat sales indexes? The table above compares year-over-year changes in market values for OFHEO, Case-Shiller and Zillow for selected markets between the third quarter of 2006 and the third quarter of 2007 (the same markets and periods compared by Wessel in his article). Also added to this table are the Pearson correlation coefficients between the three measures (an indicator of how similar the various measures are to one another). Zillow and Case-Shiller are fairly similar to each other with a correlation of 95% and median absolute error of 1.5%. OFHEO, on the other hand, is about equally dissimilar to both Zillow and Case-Shiller with a correlation of 50% with both other measures (median absolute error of 5.3% when compared with Zillow).

 

/more: http://www.zillowblog.com/zillow-home-valu...ndexes/2008/03/

 

 

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One-third of Amercans in "negative Equity" reported Bloomberg today

 

/see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a3rsglZgqmTs

 

That's an exaggeration of the real figure announced by Zillow:

 

"Second-quarter home prices fell 9.9 percent from a year earlier, giving 29 percent of owners negative equity, said Zillow, the Seattle-based service that offers values for more than 80 million homes. For those who bought at the 2006 peak of the housing market, 45 percent are now underwater, Zillow said.

 

Negative equity and declining prices are making it difficult for homeowners to sell property for a profit. Almost one-quarter of U.S. homes sold in the past year were for a loss, Zillow said. That contributes to the foreclosure rate because some homeowners can't absorb the loss and end up surrendering their homes to the bank that holds the mortgage, said Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics."

. . .

"The highest percentages of homeowners with negative equity were located in California. In four of the state's metropolitan areas -- Stockton, Modesto, Merced and Vallejo-Fairfield -- the number of homeowners whose mortgage debts exceeded the values of their properties topped 90 percent, Zillow said.

 

In five more California areas -- the Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), Bakersfield, Yuba City, El Centro and Madera -- the percentages were more than 80 percent. "

 

 

From Zillow:

Q2 Real Estate Market Reports:

Home values nationwide declined nearly 10 percent over the past year, leaving almost one-third of homeowners who bought in the last five years in negative equity. Zillow’s Q2 Real Estate Market Reports monitor 165 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and monitor home value change, homeowner equity and rates of negative equity and “distress signals” – including homes selling at a loss and foreclosures.

 

/see: http://zillow.mediaroom.com/

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What's the latest with the US house builders share prices?

 

Basically, they are still below the (falling) 12mos/252d.MA's

 

Have a look:

 

CTX : HOV : PHM : TOL

 

There's a reasonable chance they have touched bottom, but I would wait for the breakout above the 252d.MA's

 

Pulte Homes (PHM) ... update vs. CTX, HOV, and TOL

aa5am5.gif

 

PHM is "in the middle" (black line above) and may be the best bellwether. It tried to break out above the 252d.MA in the summer, but could not hold its gains. It now looks like it may have to retest its lows (in 2009 with another selloff in stocks perhaps). If that happens then the trendlines and 252d.MA will work its way lower, and provide the scenario for a nice upwards break by late 2009/ early 2010. That would be a early signal that the physical market may make a bottom. How much of a rally would come after that is a good question.

 

OR: I may be completely wrong about the retest, and it will rally from here. But I would wait for the signal: a convincing break of the 252d.MA by at least three of these stocks.

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October Home Prices in 20 U.S. Metro Areas Fall 18% (Update3)

By Bob Willis

 

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities declined at the fastest rate on record, depressed by mounting foreclosures and slumping sales.

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller index declined 18 percent in the 12 months to October, more than forecast, after dropping 17.4 percent in the year through September. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. Year-over-year records began in 2001.

 

The financial market meltdown that’s reverberated around the globe has prompted banks to curb lending, signaling the housing slump will persist for a fourth year in 2009. Falling property values have eroded household wealth, causing consumers to pare spending and deepening what is projected to be the longest recession in the postwar period.

 

“We’re seeing a shift to a housing market that is driven by a poor economy rather than a housing market that’s driven by oversupply,” said Guy Lebas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “The credit problems that hit in October exacerbated the speed of it.”

 

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 17.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17 percent to 18.4 percent.

 

Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in October, led by a 33 percent drop in Phoenix, a 32 percent decline in Las Vegas and a 31 percent drop in San Francisco.

 

Dallas, Charlotte

 

Dallas posted the smallest 12-month decline, at 3 percent, followed by a 4.4 percent drop for Charlotte and a 5.2 percent fall in Denver. New York City posted a 7.5 percent drop.

 

“The bear market continues,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. The declines in Atlanta, Seattle and Portland surpassed 10 percent for the first time, he said.

 

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

 

The 20-city index is down 23 percent from its 2006 peak. Fourteen of the 20 metropolitan areas showed record declines in the year ended in October.

 

Month to Month

 

Home prices decreased 2.2 percent in October from the prior month after declining 1.8 percent in September, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month. Six cities, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington, had the largest one- month drop on record.

 

Other housing reports this month have shown property values are deteriorating even faster as foreclosures climb. Home resales, which account for about 90 percent of the market, dropped in November and median-home prices fell 13 percent from a year earlier, the most since records began in 1968, the National Association of Realtors said last week. Foreclosures and so- called short sales, or purchases at less than the value of the outstanding mortgage, accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, the agents’ group also said.

 

Case, the co-founder of the pricing index, said today the high concentration of foreclosure sales in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona led the drop in the overall price index. ("Stranded Suburban areas !!)

 

“Auction sales are a big deal and they are concentrated, 54 percent, in four states,” said Case in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Wellesley College, in Wellesley, Massachusetts. “They are down a lot. They are driving the aggregate index down.”

 

Delinquencies, Foreclosures

 

The share of mortgages delinquent by 30 days or more and those already in foreclosure rose to all-time highs in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Dec. 5.

 

Declines in home construction have subtracted from economic growth since the first quarter of 2006. Weak housing construction is likely to remain a drag on the economy until sales and prices improve.

 

Lennar Corp., a U.S. home construction company that builds in 14 states, reported its seventh straight quarterly loss on Dec. 18.

 

“Frankly, we’re in the midst of a downward spiral and the momentum is building,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said on a conference call with analysts.

 

/see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...efer=realestate

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Prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression (ie more than 30 percent) ?

 

NEW HAVEN, Conn. — An influential economist who long predicted the housing-market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression and bailouts will be needed so millions don't lose their homes.

 

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall farther than the 30 percent drop in the historic Depression of the 1930s.

 

Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said.

 

"I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more," Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

 

Schiller Excerpts:

All 20 metro areas, and the two composites, posted their third consecutive monthly decline. In addition, eight of the MSAs posted their largest monthly decline on record – Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, New York, Portland and Seattle. Although in decline over the past few years, some of these regions have out-performed on a relative basis, when compared to the national average. It is clear, however, that the decline in home prices is affecting all regions regardless of geography or employment opportunities.

 

Some of those yoy changes were horrible:

 

(Worst 5)

Phoenix.......... 130.54 -3.4% -3.3% -32.9%

Las Vegas....... 138.04 -3.3% -2.8% -31.6%

San Francisco. 135.28 -3.0% -4.2% -30.8%

Miami............. 169.62 -2.2% -3.0% -28.7%

San Diego....... 155.47 -2.3% -3.0% -25.8%

(Best 4)

Dallas.............. 118.34 -1.9% -1.2% -3.3%

Denver............ 127.65 -1.1% -1.5% -4.3%

Cleveland........ 107.43 -1.2% -1.0% -5.2%

Charlotte......... 125.61 -1.9% -1.8% -5.3%

 

Notice how big the mom drops were in even the "best 4" cities.

 

/see: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/i...ease_012724.pdf

 

Somebody show wheel out those old US property bulls, and ask them "to explain."

Where's Donald Trump now?

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Just Out - WORST EVER Figures : -18.5% y-o-y

 

==more==

 

December Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18.5% From Year Ago

 

By Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman

 

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as foreclosures climbed and sales sank.

 

The decrease in the S&P/Case-Shiller index was more than forecast and followed an 18.2 percent drop in November. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over- year records began in 2001.

 

Record foreclosures are contributing to declining property values and household wealth, crippling the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy. The Obama administration has pledged to spend $275 billion to help stabilize the housing market, including $75 billion to bring down mortgage rates and encourage loan modifications.

 

“Falling home prices are prompting potential homebuyers to wait for an even better purchase price,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “Housing’s contribution to economic growth will be significantly negative again” in the first three months of 2009, he said.

 

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 18.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17.4 percent to 19 percent.

 

Compared with a year earlier, all areas in the 20-city survey showed a decrease in prices in December, led by a 34 percent drop in Phoenix, a 33 percent slide in Las Vegas and a 31 percent decline in San Francisco.

 

Quarterly Figures

 

S&P/Case-Shiller also released quarterly figures for home prices nationally. That measure showed an 18.2 percent drop in the three months through December from the same period in 2007, compared with a 16.6 percent year-over-year decline in last year’s third quarter.

 

“The broad downturn in the residential real estate market continues,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data.”

 

Consumer confidence this month probably sank to a record low as more Americans become concerned about job losses, economists say the Conference Board’s sentiment index will show today at 10 a.m.

 

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

 

The 20-city index is down 27 percent from its 2006 peak.

 

Monthly Change

 

Home prices decreased 2.5 percent in December from the prior month, exceeding the November decrease of 2.3 percent, the report showed.

 

/more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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Shiller: House Prices Still Way Too High

Henry Blodget|Feb. 23, 2009, 12:17 PM|6

 

Professor Robert Shiller stopped by TechTicker last week. Video above. Key points below.

 

* House prices are still only halfway back down to fair value.

* Prices don't usually stop at fair value.

* Obama's plan won't turn house prices around.

 

And here's the housing chart worth 1000 words, which is based on Prof. Shiller's data:

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-hou...too-high-2009-2

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For the US, this is a great article:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/home-pr...tom-in-housing/

Checkout those new build sales numbers !!!!!

 

Great chart too!

chart-1-case-shiller-historical-data.png

 

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THE CHARTS here need some updating

 

sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices0508.j

 

The Case Schiller index released the December 2008 numbers yesterday, with what seems to be little fanfare. Most everyone expected the numbers to continue to show eroded values in home sales across the nation- They did not disappoint.

 

The Composite 20 index is off 18.5% over last year and 27% from its peak, while the Composite 10 index fell 19.2% in 2008 and 28.3% from its peak. The 10 city index has been around since January 1988 while the 20 city index has been tracking numbers since 2001.

 

These numbers reflect the worst year over year drops in value since the inception of the index, however the precipitous drop is showing signs of slowing when compared to November numbers.

 

Leading the charge of falling prices are Phoenix down 34% year over year for 2008. The city has fallen 45% from its peak. Next in line were Las Vegas down 33% and San Francisco down 31%. Los Angeles, which includes Orange County dropped 26% ranking 5th worst.

 

According to an LA Times article, David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s said, “There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines.”

 

Overall, U.S. home prices are now at 2003 levels, according to the index.

/see: http://allanglass.featuredblog.com/?p=51

== ==

 

CASESCHILLER-749554.jpg

 

THis chart suggests an April 2007 High, which sounds too late

greg_michalowski_fxdd_fxtrading01497.jpg

= = = = =

 

 

DATA SHOWS a different Peak

 

2006

jan : 202.44 , 222.46

feb : 203.19 , 223.38

mar : 203.65 , 223.75

apr : 204.82 , 224.99

may : 205.86 , 225.99

jun : 206.38 , 226.29 (( Peak-C.10 ))

jul : 206.52 , 226.17 (( Peak-C.20 ))

aug : 206.18 , 225.54

sep : 205.80 , 225.09

oct : 205.41 , 224.74

nov : 204.42 , 223.58

dec : 203.07 , 222.01

2007

jan : 202.03 , 220.90

feb : 201.19 , 219.94

mar : 200.89 , 219.54

apr : 200.53 , 218.94

may : 200.04 , 218.37

jun : 199.18 , 217.07

jul : 198.44 , 215.94

aug : 197.16 , 214.56

sep : 195.62 , 212.65

oct : 192.89 , 209.68

nov : 188.82 , 205.09

dec : 184.86 , 200.55

2008

jan : 180.65 , 196.06

feb : 175.94 , 190.58

mar : 172.16 , 186.06

apr : 169.85 , 183.15

may : 168.54 , 181.48

jun : 167.69 , 180.38

jul : 166.23 , 178.46

aug : 164.57 , 176.60

sep : 161.56 , 173.25

oct : 158.16 , 169.78

nov : 154.59 , 166.05

dec : 150.66 , 162.17

 

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I think the work Robert Shiller has done is superb, but I think his charts need to come with a health & safety warning.

He only uses the official CPI numbers when inflation adjusting. That makes them way way out from reality.

In reality the prices have not gone up as much as his charts suggest, and they have fallen A LOT more than they suggest as well.

 

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HISTORICAL CYCLES (per Northern Trust)

Recession ===== : Peak of Median Price : Trough, Median Price : P-to-Tr.

=============== : -Date- : Price $ ... : -Date- : Price $ ... : Change

Dec.69 - Nov.70 : Jul-70 : $ 23,700 .. : Oct-70 : $ 22,700 .. : - 4.22%

Nov.73 - Mar.75 : Jul-74 : $ 33,000 .. : Oct-74 : $ 31,900 .. : - 3.33%

Jan.80 - Jul.80 : Jun-79 : $ 56,800 .. : Nov-79 : $ 55,600 .. : - 2.11%

Jul.81 - Nov.82 : Jun-82 : $ 69,400 .. : Oct-82 : $ 66,900 .. : - 3.60%

Jul.90 - Mar.91 : Jun-90 : $101,200 .. : Dec-90 : $ 94,200 .. : - 6.92%

Mar.01 - Nov.01 : Jun-01 : $160,800 .. : Oct-01 : $153,800 .. : - 4.35%

 

Current Cycle.. : Jul-06 : $230,900 .. : Oct-08 : $181,800 .. : -21.26%

Updated Cycle.. : Jul-06 : $230,900 .. : Dec-08 : $173,400Est : -24.90%Est

= = = =

*CS Index, 20.C : Jul-06 : CS206.52 .. : Oct-08 : CS158.16 .. : -23.42%

*CS Index, 20.C : Jul-06 : CS206.52 .. : Dec-08 : CS150.66 .. : -27.05%

*CS Index, 10.C : Jun-06 : CS226.29 .. : Dec-08 : CS162.17 .. : -28.34%

 

/see: http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//medi...nt/dd112408.pdf

 

 

The median price of an existing single-family home at $183,300 (down 4.2% mom) in October is down 11.2% from a year ago – the largest drop on record (see chart 4). The inventory of unsold existing homes rose to a 10.2-months supply in October from a 10-month mark in September. The elevated level of inventories implies that additional price declines are nearly certain in the months ahead.

 

Chart 4 NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes, United States

 

% Change - Year to Year $

 

http://uk.geocities.com/briarberrys/nar-house-nov08.jpg

 

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//medi...nt/dd112408.pdf

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Rally coming in US Builder stocks? ... update

 

1238402115033437700.gif

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No recovery signs

 

House prices fell by 19.1% in the first three months of the year from the same time last year, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index suggested.

 

It also showed home prices had fallen 32.2% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006.

 

However, it suggested that the pace of month-on-month declines had slowed.

 

The housing index, which looks at 20 key cities, saw prices fall by 18.7% in March from the year before.

 

These declines were slightly better than February's falls, and it was the second straight month that indexes did not post record drops.

 

But there were still no signs that home prices had hit the bottom, said David M Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.

 

"We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun," he said.

 

 

/see: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8068870.stm

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THE BIG PICTURE ??

 

AMERICA : Deflation may come back with a ROAR in July (stocks, oil, and the economy lower)

BRITAIN- : Stagflation may become more apparent, if/when Sterling rounds out a top

 

Big Difference - is in Property, the extent of the drop, & size of the rebound

COMPARE:

 

=== CURRENT YEAR, US Data ===

Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom%

Top: 206.52 , (07/06) : 226.29, (06/06) - mid.2006

dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31%

2009 -

jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56%

feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13%

mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10%

apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67%

. . .

.vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56%

 

=== CURRENT YEAR, UK Data ===

Mo : Halifax, Nat'wde, Ave.H&N - chg.%, mom%

Top: 201,081, 186,044: 192,490 (08/07) - Q3.'07

dec: 158,437, 153,048: 155,743 -17.47%, - 3.05%

2009 -

jan : 159,818, 150,501 : 155,160 -16.52%, - 0.37%

feb : 159,208, 147,746 : 153,477 -17.66%, - 1.08%

mar: 157,066, 150,946 : 154,066 -16.69%, +0.34%

apr : 157,156, 151,861 : 154,509 -16.37%, +0.33%

may 160,869, 154,016 : 157,443 -12.55%, +1.89%

jun : ====== 156,442 : ======

. . .

Top : -20.00% -15.91% : 21mos -18.21%

 

= = =

 

 

"In California, state finance officials will begin issuing IOUs on Thursday"

 

That's tomorrow!

And so it begins...

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Finally, some good news for US Housing...

 

US new-home sales post biggest gain in 8 years

 

Purchases of new homes last month climbed 11 per cent, the biggest gain in 8 years,

with the jump led by a 43 percent surge in the Midwest.

 

Sales increased to a 384,000 pace, higher than forecast.

 

Now here's the most bullish part:

The number of houses on the market dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years.

Unsold homes fell a record 36% from last June. (8.8 months-to-sell)

 

Why?:

Falling prices, and near record low interest rates have lured buyers.

 

One year drop in prices: from $234,300 to $206,200 (June to June-2009)

 

Wells Fargo says sentiment has risen in 5 of the last 6 months.

 

The Fed has committed $1.25 Trillion to purchase securities backed by home loans,

and that has helped to bring rates down to a record low of 4.78% in April

== ==

 

Builder Centex (CTX) ... update

1248755013037041000.png

 

...Looks like it wants to run to $11-12 soon. It could even make a run for the gap at $14-15.

 

 

The vulnerability here is clear : What if rates rise again?

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(1)

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ... fell 17.1 per cent in May compared to the same month last year.

The index follows property prices in 20 cities across the US.

 

Although house prices were still significantly lower than in 2008, the year-on-year fall was not as bad as that of April, when prices were down 18.1 per cent on the previous year.

 

After 16 months of consecutive worsening monthly declines, starting in October 2007, there have now been four months in which prices declines have improved month-on-month.

 

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, said: "This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilising".

 

Meanwhile, the Conference Board, a private research group, said that its Consumer Confidence Index fell in July to 46.6 points, down from 49.3 points in June.

 

A Reuters poll showed that economists expected a reading of 49. A reading of 90 or above means that the economy is expanding.

 

It was the second consecutive monthly decline in the index, which is based on a survey of 5,000 households.

/see: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6730668.ece

 

(2)

“The pace of descent in home price values appears to be slowing” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There is a clear inflection point in the year-over-year data, due to four consecutive months of improved rates of return, after the steep decline that began in the fall of 2005. In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 17 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual returns compared to those of April. Looking at the monthly data, 13 of the 20 metro areas reported positive returns; and the 10-City and 20-City Composites reported positive returns for the first time since the summer of 2006. To put it in perspective, these are the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing”.

 

“While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis home prices are still down about 17% on average across all metro areas, so we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation.” Mr. Blitzer added.”

 

/see: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/i...ease_072820.pdf

 

City of Index. : Index. : MoM. : Prev.M : Yr.onYr

=======

Chicago........ : 123.68 : 1.1% : +0.0% : -17.5%

Cleveland..... : 102.11 : 4.1% : +1.2% : - 6.2%

Las Vegas..... : 109.49 :-2.6% : -3.5% : -32.0%

San Francisco : 120.16 : 1.4% : +0.6%: -26.1%

Tampa.......... : 140.35 : 0.0% : -0.7% : -20.8%

Composite-10 : 151.00 : 0.4% : -0.7% : -16.8%

Composite-20 : 139.84 : 0.5% : -0.6% : -17.1%

 

Looks like our old favorite, Cleveland, may be the first to go positive, year-on-year.

That one month gain of 4.1% was impressive.

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Top: 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006

=== CURRENT YEAR ===

Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom%

dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31%

2009 -

jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56%

feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13%

mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10%

apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67%

may : 139.84, -17.06% : 151.00, -16.83%, +0.41%

jun :

jul :

.vs. the Top : -32.29% : 35mos -33.27%

.vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56% (Max. Fall)

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index up for 5th time, but cracks showing

24 November 2009

 

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index has increased yet again. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase in house prices in the United States. Prices are now only 11.3% lower in the Composite-10 cities and 9.3% lower in the more comprehensive Composite-20 cities than at this time last year.

 

caseshiller200909change.gif

 

However, diffusion is breaking down. When the Case-Shiller index began increasing in July, 14 of 20 markets were showing an increase. This number steadily increased as time wore on. Case-Shiller reported in August that 18 of 20 cities showed price increases. When Case-Shiller reported in September, 18 of 20 cities showed price increases.

 

Then, last month the number turned down slightly to 17 of 20 markets. This month the number really turned down. Only 10 of 20 markets rose in the data (for sales through September). That is not good. is this a one-month aberration? It’s hard to say, but clearly this should be worrying because bank collateral depends on it. Homeowners looking to escape negative equity depend on this. And renewed declines will most certainly have a negative effect on consumer confidence.

 

/see: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/ca...ks-showing.html

 

Top : 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006

==== CURRENT YEAR ===

Mon : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR , - chg.% , mom%

dec : 150.54, -18.61% : 162.09, -19.23%, -2.56%

2009 -

jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.79%

feb : 143.11, -18.67% : 154.61, -18.88%, -2.21%

mar : 140.04, -18.68% : 151.46, -18.62%, -2.15%

apr : 139.25, -18.08% : 150.43, -17.96%, -0.56% LOW

may : 139.94, -17.00% : 151.13, -16.76%, +0.50%

jun : 141.94, -15.44% : 153.32, -15.07%, +1.43%

jul : 144.23, -13.30% : 155.85, -12.77%, +1.61%

aug : 146.00, -xx.xx% : 157.93, -xx.xx%,

sep : 146.51, -xx.xx% : 158.61, -xx.xx%,

 

JULY=

.vs. the Top : -30.16% : 37mos -32.30%

L vs the Top : -32.57% : 34mos -33.52% (Max. Fall to Apr.09)

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AUGUST REPORT, released in October 2010 :

 

001wo.gif

 

August's decline was the largest here since June 2009.

 

Nationally, home prices were up 1.7 percent from last year in the monthly Case-Shiller survey.

But more than half the 20 cities in the report suffered annual declines.

 

Case-Shiller analysts called the latest numbers disappointing.

 

Mon: comp20, YoYr.% : +mom% / CSXR10 YoYr.% : mom% / Average : Exist. : New ..

dec : 145.90, - 3.08% : - 0.19% / 158.16, - 2.42%: - X.XX% / 189.7K :

2010 -

jan. : 145.31, - 0.70% : - 0.40% / 157.87, - 0.06% : -0.18% / 188.9k : 163.8k : 215.8k

feb. : 144.06, +0.66% : - 0.86% / 156.85, + 1.45% : -0.65% / 187.3k : 163.9k : 221.6k

mar : 143.35, +2.35% : - 0.49% / 156.22, + 3.13% : -0.40% / 186.4k : 170.7k : 214.0k

apr. : 144.57, +3.81% : +0.85% / 157.36, + 4.60% : +0.73% / 187.9k

may: 146.47, +4.64% : +1.31% / 159.41, + 5.44% : +1.30% / 190.4k

jun. : 148.00, +4.25% : +1.04% / 161.07, + 5.03% : +1.04% / 192.4k

jul . : 148.91, +3.18% : +0.61% / 162.28, + 4.06% : +0.75% / 193.6k

aug : 148.59, +1.70% : - 0.21% / 162.13, + 2.57% : - 0.09% / 193.3k

===

Note: "Average" is Comp20 x $1300

 

==== Fall : 1.75 years so far

High: 268,476 / 206.52 (Jul. 2007)

Low : 181,038 / 139.26 (Apr 2009) :

Chg : - 87,438 / - 67.26 (-21 mos.) :

Pct. : - 32.57% / 21 mo.: -1.55%/mo.

 

Low? 156,500 / 120.38 (Feb.2012): 18 years Low to low?

Chg :-111,976 / - 86.14 (-55 mos.) : -1% a month from Aug.2010

Pct. : - 41.71% / 55 mo.: -0.76%/mo.

001jf.gif

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U.S. home prices drop 0.2% in August .. Oct. 26, 2010

 

Report is ‘disappointing,’ says chair of index preparation committee

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home prices fell 0.2% in August, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s, in a report labelled “disappointing” by its compilers.

 

This is the first drop in the index after four straight monthly gains as demand spiked by the homebuyer tax credit that expired at the end of April.

 

Prices fell in 15 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in August compared with July. Annualized price growth slowed to 1.7% from 3.2% in July.

 

Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York and Washington, D.C. were the only five cities that recorded small improvements in home prices over July.

 

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, called the report “disappointing.”

 

“At this time, it does not seem that any of the markets are hanging on to the temporary momentum caused by the homebuyers’ tax credits,” Blitzer said in a comment that accompanied the report.

 

Economists are concerned that there may be additional downward pressure on prices as demand slows in cooler months.

 

The expiration of the tax credit combined with the cooler temperatures may create “a downside double-whammy for prices,” Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc, wrote in a research note.

 

FHFA report

In a separate report, U.S. house prices rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July to August, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday. See FHFA data.

 

The positive tone of the report was muted because declines in July and June were deeper than previously estimated.

 

Paul Dales, economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, said in an interview that the Case-Shiller and FHFA data often move in different directions on a monthly basis but are telling the same story on a longer term.

 

For the 12 months ending in August, home prices fell 2.4%, up from a 3.4% decline in July, the FHFA said in its monthly house price index. The Case Shiller is also trending lower on an annual basis.

 

“Both are pointing down consistent with softening in the housing markets,” Dales aid.

 

The FHFA index is calculated using purchase prices of houses with mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

 

Case-Shiller is a 3-month moving average. It is based on repeat sales of the same properties. Read the full report.

 

On a year-over-year basis, 12 of the 20 metropolitan areas posted negative growth rates, according to Case-Shiller. Seventeen of the regions showed a deceleration in growth rates.

 

Only Charlotte, Cleveland and Las Vegas saw improvement in year-over-year growth rates.

 

Here’s a list of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index, with percentage changes over the past year:

 

San Francisco, up 7.8%; San Diego, up 6.9%; Los Angeles, up 5.4%; Washington, up 4.8%; Minneapolis, up 2.9%; Boston, up 1.5%; Phoenix, up 0.4%; New York, up 0.1%; Detroit, down 0.1%; Cleveland, down 0.4%; Miami, down 1.0%; Denver, down 1.2%; Dallas, down 1.7%; Atlanta, down 2.0%; Portland, down 2.3%; Seattle, down 2.4%; Chicago, down 2.9%; Charlotte, down 3.4%; Tampa, down 4.1%; and Las Vegas, down 4.5%.

 

/see: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-p...nk=MW_news_stmp

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A DATA BITE....

 

Leg1: Ireland-== : UK-======== : GreaterLondon : USA-=====:

High: 139.5-1/07 : 192,490 -08/07 : 412,731-11/07 : 206.52-07/06

Low : 90.3- Q2'10 : 153,477-02/09 : 386,653-01/09 : 139.26-04/09

=== -35.3% === : -20.3% ===== : - 6.3% ===== : -32.6% === :

Bounce:

High Ireland-none: 169,287 -04/10 : 429,597-06/10 : 148.91 -07/10

=== -N/A% === : + 6.4% ===== : +11.1% ==== : + 6.9% === :

Now: 90.3- Q2'10 : 163,333-11/10 : 408,248-12/10 : 147.49-09/10

chg. :-35.3% === : - 3.5% ===== : - 5.0% ===== : - 1.0% ==== :

Vs.Peak

chg. :-35.3% === : -15.1% ===== :- 5.0% ===== : -28.6% === :

=======

 

Mon: comp20, YoYr.% : +mom% / CSXR10 YoYr.% : mom% / EstAve/ Med.NAR : mean

2007 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 219.0K : 266.0k

2008 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 198.1K : 242.7k

2009 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 172.5K : 216.9k

oct. : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 172.0k : 217.2k

nov : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.0k : 211.8k

dec : 145.90, - 3.08% : - 0.19% / 158.16, - 2.42%: - X.XX% / $189.7K : 170.5k : 218.7k

2010 -

jan . : 145.31, - 0.70% : - 0.40% / 157.87, - 0.06% : - 0.18% / $188.9k : 164.9k : 212.2k

feb. : 144.06, +0.66% : - 0.86% / 156.85, + 1.45% : - 0.65% / $187.3k : 164.6k : 208.7k

mar : 143.35, +2.35% : - 0.49% / 156.22, + 3.13% : - 0.40% / $186.4k : 169.6k : 214.5k

apr. : 144.57, +3.81% : +0.85% / 157.36, + 4.60% : +0.73% / $187.9k : 172.3k : 217.3k

may: 146.47, +4.64% : +1.31% / 159.41, + 5.44% : +1.30% / $190.4k : 174.6k : 220.9k

jun. : 148.00, +4.25% : +1.04% / 161.07, + 5.03% : +1.04% / $192.4k : 183.0k : 230.0k

jul . : 148.91, +3.18% : +0.61% / 162.28, + 4.06% : +0.75% / $193.6k : 182.1k : 231.7k

aug : 148.59, +1.70% : - 0.21% / 162.13, + 2.57% : - 0.09% / $193.2k : 177.5k : 226.0k

sep. : 147.49, +0.55% : - 0.74% / 161.25, + 1.51% : - 0.54% / $191.7k : 171.7k : 218.3k

oct. : XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.5k : 218.7k

 

Owners of about 11 million homes, or 23 percent of households with a mortgage, owed more than their property was worth as of June 30, according to CoreLogic. Another 2.4 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity in their houses and probably would lose money on a sale after paying broker fees and closing costs, CoreLogic said Aug 25.

 

8 Million

Douglas Duncan, chief economist for Washington-based Fannie Mae, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview last week that 7 million U.S. homes are vacant or in the foreclosure process. Morgan Stanley’s Chang said the number of bank-owned and foreclosure-bound homes that have yet to hit the market is closer to 8 million.

 

Sales of new and existing homes fell to the lowest levels on record in July as a federal tax credit for buyers expired and U.S. unemployment remained near a 26-year high. The median price of a previously owned home in the month was $182,600, about the level it was in 2003, the National Association of Realtors said.

== == ==

 

NAR statistics :: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportsstatistics

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From the Zombie Homeowner thread...

 

doesn't work like that.

 

the banking system is a confidence trick designed to ENSURE that x% of the populous file for bankruptcy each year, and the banks seize their assets.

 

the end game is the bankers end up owning everything.

 

in America, the banks now own a greater share of the housing stock than the american people do!:

 

for-the-first-time-in-us-history-banks-own-a-greater-share-of-residential-housing-net-worth-in-the-united-states-than-all-individual-americans-put-together.jpg

Great chart!

If the Debt (red line) had risen much more gently, then maybe equity could have kept growing.

Ramp up debt too hard and you destroy equity, because the long term balance gets destroyed, and homes get built in the wrong places.

 

Too many homes were built quickly in the outer ring suburbs. Raise oil prices, and it becomes uneconomic to live there. Raise oil prices far enough and fast enough, and the whole "suburban project" becomes naught-but-malinvestment.

 

The US should have been imposing taxes on oil to slow the spread of suburbs, not cutting rates to near zero to speed up their development.

 

The wrong move created more zombies. But at least in the US many zombies are now being buried, and few new ones are being created. The US is working through its housing nightmare, while the UK has barely started to do so.

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