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US House price Data / Case-Shiller® Indices

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US House price Data / Case-Shiller® Indices

 

Link to here :: http://tinyurl.com/gei-CS / Charts-data : C-Shiller : Bellwether Stocks

 

Long Term US Housing price trends

 

cschart.jpg

 

Mon: comp20, YoYr.% : +mom% / CSXR10 YoYr.% : mom% / EstAve/ Med.NAR : mean

2007 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 219.0K : 266.0k

2008 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 198.1K : 242.7k

2009 ===== , ===== : ===== / =====, ====== : ===== / ===== : 172.5K : 216.9k

oct. : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 172.0k : 217.2k

nov : XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, +0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.0k : 211.8k

dec : 145.90, - 3.08% : - 0.19% / 158.16, - 2.42%: - X.XX% / $189.7K : 170.5k : 218.7k

2010 -

jan . : 145.31, - 0.70% : - 0.40% / 157.87, - 0.06% : - 0.18% / $188.9k : 164.9k : 212.2k

feb. : 144.06, +0.66% : - 0.86% / 156.85, + 1.45% : - 0.65% / $187.3k : 164.6k : 208.7k

mar : 143.35, +2.35% : - 0.49% / 156.22, + 3.13% : - 0.40% / $186.4k : 169.6k : 214.5k

apr. : 144.57, +3.81% : +0.85% / 157.36, + 4.60% : +0.73% / $187.9k : 172.3k : 217.3k

may: 146.47, +4.64% : +1.31% / 159.41, + 5.44% : +1.30% / $190.4k : 174.6k : 220.9k

jun. : 148.00, +4.25% : +1.04% / 161.07, + 5.03% : +1.04% / $192.4k : 183.0k : 230.0k

jul . : 148.91, +3.18% : +0.61% / 162.28, + 4.06% : +0.75% / $193.6k : 182.1k : 231.7k

aug : 148.59, +1.70% : - 0.21% / 162.13, + 2.57% : - 0.09% / $193.2k : 177.5k : 226.0k

sep. : 147.49, +0.55% : - 0.74% / 161.25, + 1.51% : - 0.54% / $191.7k : 171.7k : 218.3k

oct. : XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / XXX.xx, + 0.00% : - 0.00% / $1XX.xk : 170.5k : 218.7k

===

Note: "Average" is Comp20 x $1300

/ 2009 & earlier data :: http://www.advfn.com...hp3?id=19393474

CaseShiller Price Data : http://www.standarda...pidff--p-us----

NatlAssocRealtors data : http://www.realtor.o...esearch/ehsdata

 

==== Rise: 13.4 years + 173.1% -- :

Low : $98,319 / $75.63 (Feb.1994) : $99,372 / $76.44 (Feb.1996) :

High: 268,476 / 206.52 (Jul. 2007) :

Chg:+170,157 / 130.89 (161 mos.) : 169,104 / 130.08 (137 mos.) :

Pct. : +173.1% /161mo:+1.08%/mo :+172.0% /137mo:+1.25%/mo

 

==== Fall : 1.75 years so far

High: 268,476 / 206.52 (Jul. 2007)

Low : 181,038 / 139.26 (Apr 2009) :

Chg : - 87,438 / - 67.26 (-21 mos.) :

Pct. : - 32.57% / 21 mo.: -1.55%/mo.

 

Low? 156,500 / 120.38 (Feb.2012): 18 years Low to low?

Chg :-111,976 / - 86.14 (-55 mos.) : -1% a month from Aug.2010

Pct. : - 41.71% / 55 mo.: -0.76%/mo.

 

Historical

00a2zq3.gif

 

...measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan region across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

In addition, the S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. National Home Price Index is a broader composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly.

 

@: http://www2.standard...,0,0,0,0,0.html

 

the_top_of_the_real_estate_market-.jpg

 

= = = = = National Index =====

 

2000 Q1 100.00 Q2 103.77 Q3 106.33 Q4 107.90

2001 Q1 109.27 Q2 112.69 Q3 115.50 Q4 116.23

2002 Q1 118.00 Q2 122.24 Q3 126.13 Q4 128.58

2003 Q1 130.48 Q2 134.20 Q3 138.41 Q4 142.29

2004 Q1 146.26 Q2 152.92 Q3 158.53 Q4 163.06

2005 Q1 169.19 Q2 176.70 Q3 183.07 Q4 186.97

2006 Q1 188.66 Q2 189.93 Q3 188.99 Q4 187.35

2007 Q1 185.62 Q2 183.89 Q3 180.31 Q4 170.64

 

= = = = = = = =

 

mo.: 10cities / National/ Miami , S.Fran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit Cleve.

ja '0: 100.00 / 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00, 100.00

ja '1: 114.58 / ===... / 110.82, 131,16, 112.66, 117.67, 108.35, 114.75, 107.18, 103.94

ja '2: 123.93 / ===... / 124.52, 125.13, 125.19, 129.93, 116.96, 121.30, 111.31, 106.21

ja '3: 142.86 / ===... / 143.78, 141.50, 146.55, 146.79, 126.77, 124.81, 115.52, 110.15

ja '4: 162.90 / ===... / 164.82, 155.93, 163.63, 158.54, 137.65, 127.20, 119.57, 115.62

D'04: 191.42 / 163.06 / 201.37, 185.72, 185.16, 173.42, 148.85, 132.40, 123.21, 119.58

jun'5: 208.86 / 176.70 / 233.42, 208.92, 197.77, 181.33, 156.16, 135.71, 125.47, 122.43

D'05: 221.91 / 186.97 / 264.83, 215.11, 212.68, 179.44, 163.16, 137.50, 127.05, 122.71

jun'6: 226.29 / 189.93 / 278.22, 218.12, 215.83, 177.90, 167.10, 139.46, 123.12, 122.93

D'06: 222.39 / 187.35 / 280.87, 212.13, 213.76, 170.32, 167.60, 137.11, 119.51, 119.59

jan'7: 221.32 / ===... / 279.42, 211.78, 212.71, 168.29, 167.46, 135.86, 117.96, 118.61

feb. : 220.47 / ===... / 279.43, 210.78, 212.23, 168.05, 167.49, 134.86, 116.51, 117.61

mar.: 219.68 / 185.62 / 276.89, 211.09, 211.97, 168.52, 167.04, 134.20, 115.55, 117.60

apr. : 218.93 / ===... / 273.53, 211.47, 211.59, 169.60, 165.87, 134.86, 114.38, 117.57

may : 218.32 / ===... / 269.52, 210.89, 210.43, 170.95, 165.68, 136.32, 112.16, 118.35

jun. : 217.33 / 183.89 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33

july. : 216.28 / ===... / 260.29, 208.64, 208.27, 171.77, 166.13, 139.23, 111.85, 118.66

aug. : 214.58 / ===... / 255.29, 208.15, 206.90, 170.84, 165.77, 139.70, 111.58, 117.35

sep. : 212.70 / 180.31 / 249.61, 206.46, 206.28, 170.73, 164.42, 138.43, 110.83, 115.93

. . .

mo.: + CSXR. / +S20R. / Miami , S.Fran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Cleve

jun. : 217.33 / 183.89 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33

. .

sep. : 212.70 / 195.68 / 249.61, 206.46, 206.30, 170.73, 164.42, 138.43, 110.83, 117.35

oct. : 209.76 / 192.98 / 244.35, 202.03, 205.58, 169.33, 163.12, 136.08, 108.15, 115.93

nov : 205.31 / 188.98 / 237.99, 195.49, 204.50, 167.39, 161.61, 133.36, 105.24, 113.29

dec : 200.77 / 185.03 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.58, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07

 

J.08: 196.22 180.79 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.99, 162.58, 156.42, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49

feb : 190.65 / 176.00 / 218.74, 174.54, 198.62, 160.31, 153.29, 127.50 , 97.61, 106.82

mar: 186.06 / 172.16 / 208.88, 168.38, 196.58, 158.54, 150.35, 127.43 , 95.57, 106.42

 

mo.: + CSXR. / +S20R. / Miami , S.Fran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Cleve

. . .

2008 chg's+20R: -2.29%, -2.65%, -2.18%

. . .

City Data :: http://www2.standard...5923002722.html

 

Long Term Chart

shiller3.gif

Source: http://economistsvie...er_longter.html

 

Lousianna Pacific (LPX) - a leading indicator for Housing? ... update : 1 year

bignw2.gif

 

Cycles in ...?

pskHouse-prices.gif

 

= = = = =

The Case-Shiller Top-10 Cities / CSXR

 

CSXR.gif.jpg

 

The March 2011 index is back near / or below the 2009 lows, depending on the Index observed.

 

MONTH = : - CSXR- / x$1400 : - CS20- / x$1400

Jun. 2006 : 226.29 $316,806 : 206.38 $288,932 : CSXR Peak

July 2006 : 226.17 $316,638 : 206.52 $289,128 : CS20 Peak

= = =

Apr. 2009 : 150.44 $210,616 : 139.26 $194,964 : First Low

July 2010 : 162.24 $227,136 : 148.89 $208,446

= change : + 7.84% ====== : + 6.92% ======

Mar.2011 : 151.66 $212,324 : 138.16 $193,424 : New Low?

= change : - 6.52 % ====== : - 7.20 % ======

= change : - 32.9 % ====== : - 33.1 % ====== : From Peak

 

The CS20 Index (Top20 Cities) is now back below the 2009 Low.

The brief rally (of about 8%) has given up its gains.

LINKS:

Google CS News ::

Charts, US stocks :

CS-10 hist.data.. :: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/SPCS10RSA.txt

Index CS data..... :: http://www.standarda...pidff--p-us----

Case-Sh.indices. :: http://www.data360.o...ue_Group_Id=264

Swivel CS data... : http://www.swivel.co...ts/show/1015996

US Builder charts : http://www.advfn.com...hp3?id=16027246

US House prices.. : http://www.realestat...ubblecharts.htm

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The S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. National Home Price Index

Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 2nd Quarter of 2007

 

New York, August 28, 2007 – Data through June released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued negative annual returns in the U.S. National Home Price Index, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite, as well as 15 of the 20 metro area indices.

 

During this cycle, Boston was the first metro area to report negative year-over-year returns, back in April 2006. In June 2007, Boston showed an improvement in its annual rate of decline from the value reported in May, –3.9% versus –4.3% reported in May. Boston has shown improvement since the beginning of the year, where its annual growth rate measured –5.5%. More data however, is needed to determine whether Boston, whose growth rate turned negative before other metro areas, is truly the first metro area to turn around.

 

The table below summarizes the results for June 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 20 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

 

 

................June 2007: June/May May/April

REGION==== Level=: -M/J , -A/M , Yr.onYr.

U.S.

National Index. 183.89 : -0.9% -0.9% -3.2%

City / Region:

Atlanta............ 136.12 : 0.8% 0.6%1.6%

Boston............ 171.30 : 0.2% 0.8%-3.7%

Charlotte........ 135.05 : 1.2% 1.1%6.8%

Chicago.......... 165.96 : 0.2% -0.1%-0.7%

Cleveland....... 118.54 : 0.1% 0.8%-3.6%

Dallas............. 126.53 : 0.8% 0.6%1.6%

Denver........... 138.09 : 1.3% 1.1%-1.0%

Detroit............ 109.57 : -0.5%-2.4%-11.0%

Las Vegas....... 221.86 : -1.3%-0.8%-5.1%

Los Angeles.... 262.12 : -0.4%-0.1%-4.1%

Miami............. 264.89 : -1.7%-1.5%-4.8%

Minneapolis.... 164.35 : 0.0%-0.2%-3.8%

New York....... 208.52 : -0.8%-0.8%-3.4%

Phoenix......... 212.52 : -0.7%-0.5%-6.6%

Portland........ 185.76 : 0.3%0.9%4.5%

San Diego..... 231.37 : -0.2%-0.4%-7.3%

San Francisco 209.48 : -0.7%-0.3%-4.0%

Seattle.......... 191.92 : 0.7%0.9%7.9%

Tampa........... 219.37 : -1.2%-0.9%-7.7%

Washington... 233.52 : -0.8%-0.3%-7.0%

Composite -10217.07 : -0.5%-0.4%-4.1%

Composite -20199.18 : -0.4%-0.3%-3.5%

 

@: http://www.globalindices.standardandpoors....ease_082857.pdf

/more : http://www.globalindices.standardandpoors....sandp/index.jsp

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MORE EVIDENCE of Whopping price cuts in the US

===========

 

"Ramsey Su who closely tracks San Diego real estate indicates that lenders with REOs are cutting prices 20% off of previous selling price. This of course would totally wipe out second lien home equity mortgages, and a nice chunk of the 90% loan to “value” deals from the Bubble heyday. He also makes the following remark, with more here.

 

719 REOs in San Diego during the last 4 weeks, comparing to just 1,239 sales reported so far by the MLS for September, are we going to see over 50% REO prevalence next quarter?

 

And another report from northern Virginia on $46 million in distressed property going under the gavel at 20% off of previous prices. Miami condos being auctioned for 50% off."

 

/winter watch: http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1133

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(I liked this comment on WW):

 

Kokopelli wrote:

 

Barley,

 

Problem being that as they take a loss, it isn’t just a loss on their balance sheets, the homes they have repossessed flood a market that is in decline. When you mark to market a home and there isn’t really much of a market, the real values start showing up. So any one who bought say after 2000 or maybe even 1995 may find that when they need to refi or sell that the real value of their home is below what they owe on it…

 

Can you say “Negative Wealth Affect!”

or maybe you like the word “Deflation” better.

 

There will be no short term fix to this problem. Houses are not investment vehicles, they have maintenance and ownership costs. They are places to sleep and eat and keep warm or cool down. They are a place to store your stuff. They can not really increase in value faster than the incomes of those who live in them do.

 

Everything else is a mirage or a wish and a hope. There really is no such thing as prospering by living beyond your means. The consequences in buying something you can not afford is that you have to give it back and take a hit on your future at the same time. Nothing is ever truly free.

 

@:

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From Bearish article about US housing on the BBC website:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7078492.stm

 

chart:

_44217522_h_price_416.gif

 

"average house prices across the US are declining for the first time since the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the magnitude of the collapse has surprised experts."

 

LOL

The only "experts" who were surprised by the falls...

were the ones taking their views from spin-ridden media (er, ah, like the BBC, I suppose.)

Alternative economic observers saw this slide coming long ago and prepared for it.

 

Now they are talking and writing about how a severe property slide will soon visit the UK too, with a lag of about one year to what is happening in the US.

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Latest CS index out.

 

Down 6.7% from a year earlier - that exceeded the previous record fall of 6.3% in April 1991.

Aftewr that fall, US real estate rallied sharply from its low. Are we about to see that again?

 

 

What some economists are quoted to be saying:

 

+ "The market is working its way back to reality," says David Seiders, chief economist

of the National Association of Home Builders. He thinks that U.S. home prices will

bottom out by early 2009. (Previously, he was saying sometime in 2008- so it's a

moving target.)

 

+ Some other economists say that (a bottom in the US) may not happen before 2010

 

+ "The housing shock is only about halfway over, and US housing prices will continue to

fall well into 2009," says Lehman Brothers economist Michele Meyer.

 

 

Here's one of those old Builder cycle charts*, showing how CTX bottomed around 1990.

18yrctxut5.gif

 

- so I ran a close-up of three years (1989-91), to see how CTX moved back then.

 

bignu7.gif

 

I'm still trying to get a fix on the exact bottom of that C-S data series, but for CTX,

we saw a low in Oct/Nov.1990, and I would expect that to LEAD by perhaps 6-12 months.

How might this three year period look from 2006-2008

 

Centex Corp (CTX) ... update : weekly : daily // monthly-JOE

bigxr7.gif

 

It is interesting that in both periods, there was a sharp fall into November.

Is it just possible that we have seen an important low??

 

Apart from Detroit, the "motor city" which has been hit hard by problems in the

automotive industry, the biggest fallers were mostly the markets that were previously

the hottest, like:

Region---- from 2000: Peak= : Pct.Drop : Ave./mo.

Detroit....... : + 27.1% : Dec'05 : - 14.88%: - 0.68%

San Diego : + 150.3% : Nov'05 : - 13.31%: - 0.38%

Tampa..... : + 137.3% : May'06 : - 13.26%: - 0.72%

Miami....... : + 178.7% : May'06 : - 12.32%: - 0.57%

Phoenix.... : + 127.4% : Jun'06 : - 11.74%: - 0.73%

Las Vegas : + 134.8% : Aug'06 : - 11.12%: - 0.79%

========

10 cities.. : + 126.29% June'06: -7.34%: - 0.46%

 

(These figures UNDERSTATE PRICE FALLS in many locations, because by design,

they do not include condos, which have typically seen larger price falls than houses.)

 

Might these locations be a good place to look for bargains within 12 months of the

Builder stocks bottoming- whenever that may happen?

-------- -

 

* From the First GEI video/ UK Property Cycle thread, in the GEI-in-the-media section

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Might these locations be a good place to look for bargains with 12 months of the stocks bottoming?

 

Builder Low in place?

 

Somehow, I dont think so, the downside volume looks too big for an important low.

But I'm still trying to put the picture together.

 

Some interesting stats from the WSJ article on the Schiller index:

 

+ S&P/Case_Schiller national index rose 74% in the six years thru 2006 ... 1.74

+ During the same time, USmedian household income rose only 15% ....... 1.74 / 1.15 = 1.51

+ Since the peak we've seen a 6% fall, narrowing the gap to 42% ............ 1.51 / 1.06 = 1.425

+ A 12% fall in the index is expected by 2009, narrowing the gap further .. 1.51 / 1.12 = 1.35

+ Mark Zandi of Economy.com expects a 12% rise in incomes by 2009 ...... 1.35 / 1.12 = 1.205

 

Putting it all together, and you are left with an expected gap of only 20.5% by 2009.

I wonder if that 20% gap will remain too big, with pressure continuing on America's share of

global wealth, and competition for scarce oil resources.

 

But inventories remain high, and will likely get higher still ,as foreclosures dump

more properties ontoi the market.

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- so I ran a close-up of three years (1989-91), to see how CTX moved back then.

Centex (CTX) ... recent

bignu7.gif

 

I'm still trying to get a fix on the exact bottom of that C-S data series, but for CTX,

we saw a low in Oct/Nov.1990, and I would expect that to LEAD by perhaps 6-12 months.

 

The LOW for the Schiller index, was like this :

 

Index--------: Centex (CTX).... : 10-cities-composite : 20-cities-composite :

First Low..... : $2.1x / nov.1990 : 76.87 / apr.1991... : N/avail. until 1/2000

First High.... : $4.5x / may 1991 : 78.93 / aug.1991... :

Second Low : $3.7x / aug.1991 : 77.31 / mar.1991... :

 

An initial low, then a small bounce, and a slightly higher high (+0.57%) about one year later.

By comparison, the second low for CTX came six months after the first low, and at a level

that was +78% higher.

 

This suggest that there was plenty of time to buy US property AFTER the CTX share price

had made an important low.

 

By comparison, here's the pattern for various stocks back in 1989-91:

 

- for Ryland (RYL) ... recent

.. bigwa0.gif

 

- for Pulte Homes (PHM) ... recent

.. bignd8.gif

 

- for Toll Brothers (TOL) ... recent

.. bigvs4.gif

 

- for St. Joe (JOE) ... recent

.. bigcf3.gif

 

Note: St.Joe, the Florida landowner, lagged behind the builders !

 

=LINKS==

US Builder charts : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=16027246

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(from a GHPC thread about "most rapid price falls"):

 

QUOTE (gone west @ Dec 29 2007)

I like to look at housingtracker.net as it has a broader scope of cities than Case/Schiller.

Over the past few weeks the weighted increase (decrease) in average house prices has remained constant at around -0.3% to -0.4% per week.

UNQUOTE

 

That is FAST!

Remember, the Case-Schiller data stops in October 2007- that was reported last week.

 

So I think you will see a speed up in the rate of decline (as I have predicted)

as we head towards a possible low in 2009.

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(From MarketOracle's 5 Mega-trends):

 

Mega-Trend #1: The Housing Downturn Will Drag On ... And On ... And On

 

A few years ago, I started warning that the housing market was a dangerous bubble, destined to pop with devastating consequences.

 

I highlighted predatory mortgage lending, ridiculous speculation, out-to-lunch regulators, and dramatically overvalued homes as threats to the entire housing system — and told you to expect those problems to come home to roost. Boy, have they ever.

 

To recap some of the major points ...

 

Sales and construction activity have collapsed: Existing home sales have plunged 31% from their 2005 peak. New home sales are down even more — around 48%. Meanwhile, single family housing construction activity has tanked 55%. And the decline isn't over: The issuance of new building permits — an indicator of future housing starts — has dropped to its lowest level since 1991. ((1991: time of the last bottom))

 

 

The outlook has worsened as empty homes have piled up: An index that measures home builder optimism, buyer traffic, and expected sales has plunged from the 70s during the boom to 19, a record low. And the nationwide home vacancy rate has surged to a near-record 2.7%, a testament to the dramatic glut of empty, depreciating homes sitting on the market.

 

Mortgage performance has suffered: An alarming 5.6% of the nation's homeowners have fallen behind on their mortgage payments — up from roughly 4.7% a year earlier and the most since 1986. The percentage of homes in any stage of foreclosure has jumped to 1.7%, the highest since the Mortgage Bankers Association began tracking it in 1972.

 

According to some estimates, as many as 2.2 million homeowners could lose their houses over the next 24 months!

 

We've already seen the price of an American home lose 6.1% from a year ago, according to the well-respected research group S&P/Case-Shiller. The Census Bureau shows the price of new homes down even more — 13% in October, the sharpest drop in 37 years.

 

I fully expect more declines in 2008. Home values will likely fall by the mid-single digits nationwide, and more in select markets.

 

Longer-term, the downturn in construction activity will eventually cut housing inventory to a more manageable level, while lower prices will entice more buyers to step up to the plate.

 

But it'll take a good long while to get housing supply and housing demand into better alignment. I don't expect the overall market to start a gradual recovery until late 2008 at the earliest. More than likely, it will take until 2009.

 

Mega-Trend #2: Commercial Real Estate Ready For Its Turn On The Chopping Block

 

In May, a Moody's commercial real estate analyst declared ...

 

"Underwriting has gotten so frothy that we have to take a stand ... the industry was heading to Niagara Falls."

 

But by the time Moody's took its stand, the frothy underwriting in the commercial sector was too far gone.

 

As on the residential side, the industry was already plagued by interest-only financing ... loans with huge balloon payments ... hasty and shoddy due diligence ... scrimping on tax, insurance, and maintenance reserves by landlords ... little or no equity contribution from purchasers ... not to mention loan-to-value ratios of 80%, 90%, even 120%.

 

Commercial lenders are now attempting to get their arms around the problems. But they waited too long

 

/more: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3205.html

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REAL ESTATE STATS to watch ... for the USA...

=============

----------------------- :: Latest----- : Previous- :: LastYr./ Change----- : Source

New Home Sales..... :: 647k-Nov. : 711k-Oct. :: XXXk / - 34.4% yoy - Census Bureau

 

Backlog time to sell. :: 9.3 months

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(From the Gartman report):

 

aaado8.jpg

 

Home prices continued to fall, giving buyers an incentive to pull their bids and wait for lower prices in the future, and giving sellers a reason to lower their offers if they intend to sell their homes.

 

The median price of a home sold...the point at which half sell for more and half sell for less... in November was $210,200, down 3.3% compared to a year ago. This was, we are told, the 5th largest annual decline on record.

 

Chart watchers will make a note of the fact that the median home price forged a rather sizeable "triple top" at or very near to $230,000, reaching that level in late '05 amidst now comical euphoria in the housing market; again in early '06 and then earlier this year. The long upward sloping trend that extends back into '00 has clearly been broken. It will take months... perhaps even a year or more... before the "bear market" has run its course and "support" will be found. Around the country, sales were, shall we say, mixed. In the West they rose a rather shocking 10.3%. In the Midwest, they were flat. Sales fell 2% across the South and were down 3.3% in the Northeast.

 

Finally the inventory of unsold homes in November was 4.27 million, meaning that at the current pace of sales it shall take a bit more than 10 months to wear off that excessive inventory

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Pain Street USA: '08 housing outlook // Too many Vacant homes

 

The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it's not going to get better any time soon.

 

In a new survey, Moody's Economy.com says many metro areas will record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early 2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline would be well over 15 percent.

 

Eighty of the 381 metro areas covered by the report will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas, such as California and Florida.

 

The steep losses were bound to arrive sometime. Throughout the housing slump, which began in the summer of 2006, experts kept expecting prices to tumble, but it wasn't until recently that they dropped substantially, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

 

"There has been a sea change in seller psychology since the subprime shock this summer," he said. "Sellers now realize they have to drop their prices to make a sale and prices are coming down very rapidly in some markets."

 

One such place is Punta Gorda, Fla. In Moody's outlook, prices there will undergo the steepest correction of any U.S. market. From their peak during the first three months of 2006, to their bottom, forecast for the second quarter of 2009, prices will decline 35.3 percent. That's in nominal dollars; adjusted for inflation, the loss will be even greater.

 

Other metro areas expected to go through crushing price drops include: Stockton, Calif., where prices are forecast to drop 31.6 percent, Modesto, Calif. (-31.3 percent), Fort Walton Beach, Fla. (-30.4 percent) and Naples, Fla. (-29.6 percent).

 

The worst hit market outside the Sun Belt is expected to be Ocean City, N.J. where prices will fall 24.9 percent, according to Moody's. Prices in St. George, Utah (-21.8 percent), Grand Junction, Colo. (-18.9 percent) and Atlantic City, N.J. (-18.6 percent) will also suffer. In the Washington, D.C. metro area, Moody's forecasts a decline of 18.4 percent.

 

Home prices are being pulled down by an even more severe decline in home sales, which Moody's expects to bottom out in early 2008, when unit sales will be down more than 40 percent from their peak.

 

Home builders continued to add to inventory even as the slump got well under way, contributing to what is now an 11-month back-log of homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

Many of these homes are sitting completely empty: The Census Bureau reported a total of 2.1 million vacant homes for sale. Vacant homes add pressure on prices because owners of these houses are usually more willing to slash prices to move the properties. They cost out-of-pocket cash each month while providing neither income nor shelter.

 

Even though home construction has now contracted severely - the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that new housing starts were down to an annualized rate of 1.187 million units in November, the lowest in 16 years - it will take time to work through the excess inventory.

 

The housing slump will have a substantial impact on the overall economy, according to Moody's, which says it will depress real gross domestic product by more than a percentage point this year and by 1.5 percentage points in 2008.

 

Speculative investment in the mid-2000s helped fuel the current slump. Zandi pointed out that 16 percent of mortgage originations during 2005 were for non-owner-occupied housing, twice the number of a few years earlier.

 

"And that's a very conservative estimate of investor demand," he said. "Many home buyers lied on their mortgage applications." That's because interest rates are lower for owner/occupied dwellings.

 

...more: http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/pain_str...ng_outlook.html

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Home prices: Down record 11%

The residential real estate market continues to deteriorate in 2008, with 20 key markets reporting steep drops.

 

Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer ... March 25, 2008

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Residential real estate posted another record decline in January 2008, according to a survey released Tuesday.

 

The S&P Case/Shiller Home Price composite index of 20 key markets shows that home prices plunged 10.7% over the last 12 months, their lowest level since the index launched in 2000.

 

Of those 20 metro areas, 16 reported record annual declines. Ten of those cities posted double digit declines through the 12 months that ended in January.

 

The survey's 10-city composite index fell 11.4% year-over-year, its steepest decline since its inception in 1987.

 

A national decline. While regional declines in home prices are not uncommon, the current decline is the "first national decline we've had," said Robert Shiller, Yale professor of economics and co-founder of the index.

 

"In a historical context we're down substantially, down more than at any other time that we've been keeping track," he added.

 

Las Vegas and Miami reported the weakest markets in January, with each city posting an annual decline of 19.3%. Phoenix was the second worst with a decline of 18.2%.

 

Washington and Minneapolis also registered double digit declines in January.

 

Only one city, Charlotte N.C., posted a modest price increase of 1.8%.

 

"Unfortunately it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

 

Housing glut. Michael Strauss, chief economist at investment firm Commonfund, says that steep price declines are no surprise, given the number of homes on the market.

 

"When inventory is so high we're likely to see a a decline in prices," he said.

= =

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/25/real_estat...oney_topstories

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Wave of Foreclosures Drives

Prices Lower, Lures Buyers

Oversupply Triggers

Lenders' Fast Sales;

Mr. English Bids

By JAMES R. HAGERTY and KRIS HUDSON

March 25, 2008; Page A1

 

A glut of foreclosed homes of historic proportions is starting to drive down U.S. home prices faster as lenders put more properties on the market and buyers show signs of interest.

 

P1-AK954A_REOma_20080324204528.gif

 

The ability of America's lenders to manage this fire sale will be crucial to determining how long the housing market stays in the dumps -- and how quickly blighted neighborhoods can heal. The oversupply is severe: In some major markets, including Las Vegas and San Diego, foreclosure-related sales have accounted for more than 40% of all sales in recent months.

 

On Monday, new data suggested that pressures like these are starting to drive prices low enough to attract some buyers back into the market. Sales of previously occupied homes jumped 2.9% in February from the month before, the National Association of Realtors said, the first increase since July.

 

The median price dropped 8.2% from a year earlier to $195,900, the biggest drop recorded by the Realtors in the current slump.

 

P1-AK955_REOjum_20080324204539.gif

. . .

Lessons of S&L Crisis

 

William Seidman, a TV commentator and former bank regulator, served as chairman of Resolution Trust Corp., an agency created by Congress to sell the assets of failed savings and loans in the aftermath of that late-1980s financial crisis. "Our view was that we should sell [real estate] as quickly as possible," he says. Mr. Seidman advises today's sellers to take a similar approach.

 

In some cases, buyers are ready to act. Marc S. English, a beefy, 6-foot-4-inch Texan in ostrich-skin boots, walked into a private auction of 80 foreclosed homes at an Embassy Suites hotel near Dallas on March 9 and predicted that bargains would be scant due to the attendance of more than 1,000 rival bidders.

 

"If you can't make 20%, 25% off these deals, you're wasting your time," said Mr. English, who occasionally buys and sells homes to supplement his regular work with a commercial builder.

 

Yet Mr. English wound up buying two of the four homes he had scouted in advance. For instance, he agreed to pay mortgage investor Fannie Mae $37,000 for a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Fort Worth with a value of $69,600 in the county appraiser's records. After the auction, the lenders initially rejected his winning bids as too low. But a week later, they relented.

 

The fastest way to move foreclosed homes might be to sell in bulk to big investors, although that kind of transaction is highly unusual in the real-estate business. Nevertheless, some hedge-fund operators, including New York-based Paulson & Co., are considering whether to seek deals like these. There are big obstacles, however. One problem: Hedge funds aren't equipped to manage small properties scattered over large areas.

 

/more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1206405738...ews_us_business

 

 

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FEWER HOLIDAYS, DENTISTS, and PANIC SELLING - may time the bottom

 

((A low next winter ??))

 

(a note on Real Estate from Dennis Gartman):

 

Everyone everywhere is trying to ascertain when the bottom shall come in the real estate market, and all

answers we've seen thus far are wonderfully complicated compilations of math, done we fear by the same

wonderful Russian, Chinese, and eastern European mathematicians who have given us the models that have

wreaked so much damage upon the real estate industry to begin with. We shall pay them no heed, for they

deserve none. Their sigmas, and deltas, and arcane math have done quite enough damage. We needn't more.

 

Rather, we'll look for anecdotes that shall prove the bottom, for the history we've had in the past thirty + years

of trading has always shown that "data" lags while anecdote is coextensive with market changes. In the

instance of real estate, we suspect that the bottom shall be made when the doctors, lawyers, dentists et al, who

proved to be the great buyers of second and third vacation homes. It was they who were the market for

houses in Florida, in Arizona, along the Outer Banks of N.Carolina, in California, Nevada et al. They levered up

because their friends levered up; they bought because their friends bought; they invested because their friends

invested... and they made the top in the market in venue after venue.

 

To that end we noted an interest bit of what might seem like tangential information but which we think points hard

at the problems facing real estate at the margin: vacation bookings are down and down sharply from those of the

past several years. The American Research Group in Charleston, S. Carolina, reported that in a survey they'd

done just recently that only 16% of American households plan to take holiday this summer. At the same time a

year ago, 48% had made their summer plans. This is not an immaterial downward shift; indeed, it is as material as

any bit of news we've seen in a very long while. Bookings at the Outer Banks are down materially this year from

last, with total rentals down and weekly average rentals falling. The doctors, lawyers and dentists who'd bought

homes at the "Banks" were not too concerned about falling prices of their vacation homes so long as the rental

income to support those homes more than equalled their mortgage payments. That, however, is about to change,

and when it does, and panic begins, the bottom shall be made.

 

When will this happen? Much later this year, probably, for most of these DLD's ("Doctors, lawyers and dentists) will

tell themselves that it is others whose vacation homes will not rent, but that theirs shall, for "Ours is nicer." They will

rationalise that their homes has better features; has a better view; has a bigger deck.. more amenities, et al.

Eventually, however, they will cut their weekly rental rates, and the race shall be on amongst everyone to the

downside, as each tries to undercut the other. Finally, when bookings are down one half from a year ago, panic

shall begin and the banks shall find themselves owning "McMansions" they do not want, with the prospects of

weather damage always looming. When will the bottom come? Later this year or early next. Anecdotes will tell

us, and they will be bleak... and the DLD's will be throwing up in unison.

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Cleveland has been added to the list of cities in the header.

 

There's a new Cleveland thread on GEI

 

FALLS SINCE JUNE 2007 - various Cities:

 

mo.: +CSXR. / +S20R / Miami , SanFran. -NYC-, Boston, Chicago, Denver Detroit, Cleve.

jun. : 217.33 / 199.43 / 264.89, 209.48, 209.34, 171.29, 165.94, 138.09, 110.70, 118.33

dec : 200.73 / 185.01 / 231.71, 189.23, 202.32, 164.59, 160.03, 130.98, 103.30, 112.07

J.08: 196.06 / 180.65 / 225.40, 183.81, 200.49, 162.59, 156.47, 128.98, 100.17, 108.49

Chg.: - 9.8%/ - 9.4%/ -14.9%, -12.3%, -4.2%, - 5.1%, -5.7%, - 6.6%, - 9.5%, - 8.3%

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America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets

Matt Woolsey, 04.15.08, 4:34 PM ET

 

In Pictures: America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets : List

 

##: City========== : Ave. Price: chg. : Unsold : sales

.1. Miami, Florida....... : $345,900: - 5.7% : 81,613 : 0.2% /mo.

.2. Orlando, Florida.... : $240,400: -11.7% : 34,384 : 0.6% /mo.

.3. Phoenix, Arizona... : $241,700: - 7.8% : 53,717 : 0.6% /mo.

.4. Tampa, Florida...... : $201,600: -12.2% : 56,491 : 0.8% /mo.

.5. Los Angeles, Calif. : $509,700: -13.1% 100,770 : 2.0% /mo.

.6. Washington, D.C.. : $400,100: - 5.1% : 47,432 : 2.2% /mo.

.7. Chicago, Illinois... : $261,000: - 2.6% : 72,842 : 2.3% /mo.

.8. Baltimore, Md...... : $275,100: - 1.0% : 9,210 : 2.5% /mo.

.9. San Diego, Calif... : $522,900: - 9.8% : 18,450 : 2.7% /mo.

10. Denver, Col......... : $230,100: - 6.3% : 21,756 : 2.9% /mo.

 

Miami-area home sellers looking to unload their properties might want to make sure they have comfortable couches.

 

It looks like they're going to be there a while.

 

That's because Miami tops our list of the nation's most sedentary housing markets. These 10 spots feature a potent mix of dropping prices and sluggish sales rates. Also on the list: Denver, San Diego, Baltimore and Chicago.

. . .

In Chicago, for example, where the median home sale price in the fourth quarter of 2007 was $261,000, a 2.6% drop from the previous year, there were 72,842 homes on the market, with 2.2% of them selling each month.

 

While this sales rate alone isn't extraordinary, it matters because Chicago's housing supply is overstocked, with 50% more houses on the market than two years ago. Prices, as a result, are continuing to sink.

 

 

/more: http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2008/04/1...realestate.html

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Prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression (ie more than 30 percent) ?

 

NEW HAVEN, Conn. — An influential economist who long predicted the housing-market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression and bailouts will be needed so millions don't lose their homes.

 

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall farther than the 30 percent drop in the historic Depression of the 1930s.

 

Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said.

 

"I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more," Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

 

His national Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index is considered a strong measure of home prices because it examines price changes of the same property over time, instead of calculating a median price of homes sold during the month.

 

Shiller, who admitted he has a reputation among economists for being bearish, said real-estate cycles typically take years to correct.

 

/more: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/busi...ingslump23.html

 

== ==

 

Another who agrees with a 30 percent fall - good interview:

 

Nouriel Roubini - "a 12 to 18 month recession" (1 of 3)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=51SxmcaKJIw

 

"Excess supply is huge... it is continuing. People are underwater, and will walk away."

 

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CALIFORNIA - looking very grim

 

C.A.R. Median Home Prices Down 29% In March

The California Association of Realtors® has released its report for March.

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

Home sales decreased 24.5 percent compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent.

 

“Sales continue to be impacted by problems in the real estate finance sector, which by some measures have eroded since the start of the year,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “Sales in 2007 reached their peak last February; going forward, the year-to-year declines in sales should shrink.”

 

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2008 was $413,980, a 29 percent decrease from the revised $582,930 median for March 2007, C.A.R. reported. The March 2008 median price fell 1.3 percent compared with February’s revised $419,640 median price.

 

“Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Historically, mortgage rates on jumbo loans are 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent higher than those on conforming loans, but the spreads in recent weeks have been as large as 2 percentage points, reflecting an increase in the perceived risk associated with these loans.

 

“The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,” she said.

 

Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for March 2008:

 

C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2008 was 11.6 months, compared with 7.6 months for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

 

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Bulletproof housing markets get hit

The mortgage meltdown has finally gotten to Seattle, Charlotte and and other cities where prices had been holding up.

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some of the last, best housing markets - the ones that continued to climb even as the rest of the country cratered - have turned south lately.

 

Seattle, Portland Ore., Charlotte, NC, and Salt Lake City all posted home price gains during 2007, even as more than half of the 150 markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors registered declines. Now they've joined the losers.

 

"What the numbers are saying is that the trend is broadening out," said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "[The downturn started with] the markets that had flown the highest. When the speculative bubble popped, those got hit first. These [bulletproof] markets are now getting hit for traditional economic reasons."

 

/more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/real_estat...oney_topstories

 

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The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National Home Price, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reached well into double digits, recording a 14.1% decline in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the 1st quarter of 2007, the largest in the series 20-year history. As a comparison, during the 1990-91 housing recession the annual rate bottomed at -2.8%. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of -15.3% and -14.4%, respectively.

“The steep downturn in residential real estate continues,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data.

 

Most of

the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and six of those now at negative rates exceeding -20%. Looking closely at these returns, you can see that 15 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows, and eleven are in double digit decline, with Chicago being the latest metro area to join these ranks. The monthly data paints a similar picture, with 18 of the metro areas reporting at least seven consecutive months of negative returns. For the first time in as many months, we finally saw monthly price appreciation in two of the metro areas – Charlotte was up 0.2% in March over February, and Dallas was up 1.1%.”

Las Vegas remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of -25.9%, followed by Miami and Phoenix at -24.6% and -23.0%, respectively. Charlotte is the only market with appreciation over the past year, returning +0.8%.

 

/see: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/i...ease_052703.pdf

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Look at these property prices falls in Phoenix (per Schiller sub-index):

 

Jan.07 : 220.20

Feb.07 : 218.07

Mar.07 : 216.86

Apr.07 : 215.04

May.07 : 213.94

Jun.07 : 212.52

July.07 : 210.78

Aug.07 : 208.86

Sep.07 : 205.28

Oct.07 : 200.72

Nov07 : 194.45

Dec07 : 187.67

Jan.08 : 180.06 : - 40.14, - 18.2% year-on-year

Feb.08 : 172.72 : - 45.35, - 20.8%

Mar.08 : 166.97 : - 49.89, - xx.x%

Apr.08 : 161.33 : - 53.71, - xx-x%

 

The slide is picking up speed !

 

Here's what today's press release of the latest Schiller index said:

 

"Las Vegas and Miami continue to share the dubious distinction of being the weakest past 12 months returning -26.8% and -26.7%, respectively. These two markets witnessed some of the fastest growth in the 2004/2005 periods, with annual growth rates peaking above +53% and +32% respectively.

 

For the month of April, markets that experienced great gains in the recent real estate boom were the biggest decliners. Miami and Phoenix were the worst performers. Each had a negative return of 3% (month-on-month.)"

 

This compares with a Top 20 city index fall of -1.4% month-on-month.

== ==

 

 

A HARVARD Study says that the rebound will take longer this time:

 

+ Prices noramlly dont rebound until prices reach affordable levels and rates are lowered

+ Cycle will take longer, as mortgae rates remain high, and prices are not cheap enough

+ The number of homes in foreclosure more than doubled to 1.3 million

+ The number of households paying more than half their income on housing surged 35%

to 8.8 million in 2006, up from 6.5 million 5 years earlier

+ Homeownership fell from 69% in 2004 to 67.8 % in late 2007

 

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