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Excellon, FR.t, GORO recommended back in 2007

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Excellon, First Majestic were recommended back in 2007, along with many other stocks

Back in August 2007, we were ALL thinking about Peak Oil & Peak Commodities - & we got a big Rally !

Have a look back... at what people were thinking then... and what happened


Here are two Silver related stocks, that were liked back then... & they did great in Silver's last Big rise

EXN.t / Excellon ... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: C$0.48


FR.t / First Majestic ... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: C$11.12



Gold Resource Corporation (US:GORO). One of my favourite companies.

The only problem is it’s not looking that cheap. But it has excellent father, brother and son partnership in Bill, David and Jason Reid, a

great property in Mexico that produces consistently good drilling results and could be moving into production by 2008, and loads of

further upside potential, even without a move in the gold price. Buy on pullbacks.

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It is August 8th, 2007. I predict that every single, goshdarned one of these will be trading at significantly higher levels in five years

time. And by 'significantly higher', I mean at least 25% - in some cases multiples.


Since the turn of the century we have seen a dramatic increase in the price of virtually every commodity. Plumbers are moaning about the

price of copper piping, jewellers about the price of gold and my close friend Ghassan, a Lebanese who runs a yoghurt business, is now losing

sleep because of the price rises in powdered milk. 'Forget the EU butter mountain. This is fantasy' he cursed to me yesterday.


This boom has two enormous drivers . Firstly, the one we all already know: Demand from the Far East, in particular China and India. On a

national level, there is an industrial revolution going on. I do not say that lightly. Industrial revolutions do not happen every day. They

don't even come about every century, particularly in countries as large and as populated as China. The whole infrastructure of China is being

overhauled – the roads, the railways, the telecommunication systems, the airports, the buildings - and the country currently resembles a

vast building site. This means an unprecedented demand for energy and for metals. And on a personal level, many are cash rich and want

to enjoy the same luxuries we in the West take for granted: from central heating or air conditioning to breakfast cereal with milk on top

and a cup of coffee on the side to BMWs.


But while there is this dramatic increase in demand, there has not been a corresponding increase in supply – in fact in many cases there is a

decrease in supply. The earth's resources are finite after all. More and more uses are being found for silver, for example, but more and more

silver is not being found. Some bright spark in America has decided that, as well as being used to feed livestock and people, corn should

now also be used to power cars. This extra use has put a strain on supply and, surprise, surprise, the price has shot up – with very serious

consequences in countries such as Mexico.


We've all heard about Peak Oil: that at a certain point half of the world's oil supplies will have been used up and from then on

production goes into decline. It may be that we have already reached that point. It may be that we haven't. It may be that we're just a few

years away from it. Well, I'm a believer in Peak Cheap Oil. There is a lot of oil in Canada's Tar Sands; I've no doubt that there is lots of oil under

the sea – and there is a lot more sea than there is earth. But who is going to find it? When and where? And, more importantly, how much

is going to cost to extract it? Meanwhile, production from the major oil fields of the world, even with oil at record prices, has been declining

since 2005, be it Cantarell in Mexico, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Bolivar in Venezuela or Burgan in Kuwait. What’s more, there have been no

significant discoveries of major oil fields to replace this declining production.


The less-talked-about, but perhaps equally significant second driver of commodity prices is and will continue to be inflation. Let me just

explain what I mean here. The original definition of inflation according to the Oxford or Webster's English Dictionary is "An

increase in the amount of currency in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices". That

was cut and pasted from a 1983 dictionary. The 2007 OED defines inflation thus, 'a general increase in prices and fall in the

purchasing value of money.' Over the last twenty or so years people's understanding of inflation and so its definition have changed.

If you increase 'the amount of currency in circulation' or the supply of money, that is to say you print or issue more money, but you don't

increase the supply of goods, the price of those goods is, sooner or later, going to go up. At the moment, nineteen of the top twenty

economies in the world have double digit money supply growth, with Putin's Russia in pole position.


Russian Fed. M2....  50.94 pct. pa

India M3...............    19.70

China M2..............    16.74

Australia M3..........   14.05

United Kingdom M4 13.84


It doesn’t matter what you call this frightening phenomenon of money supply growth, or inflation; it doesn't matter how many indices you re-jig

or figures you fudge to hide it; it doesn't matter how little people understand it; it doesn't matter how well you manage 'inflation

expectation'. It's still there and it will continue to drive prices higher. It’s been, in my view, largely what has pushed our own house prices up

to these absurd levels.


We won't dwell on why our beloved leaders have seen fit to debase our currencies by issuing more of it, save to say we are being conned – no,

not conned, right royally shafted - by The Great Inflation Tax. The winners in the inflation game are long-term borrowers who have

fixed their debt at cheap rates; and those who hold hard assets – or commodities.


So here's the situation: a dramatic increase in demand for commodities from the most populated countries in the world in an industrial

revolution of likely historic levels, an on-the-whole negligible increase in the supply of those commodities, and a dramatic increase

in the supply of money worldwide with which to purchase those commodities. It really is that simple. More money is chasing fewer

goods. And as more people that cotton to the decline in purchasing power of their pound note, the quicker they're going to want to store

their wealth in tangible assets – and the faster prices will rise. In the UK, we have to an extent been shielded from the effects of the

dramatic rise in the costs of these goods because of the strong pound. But that will not last. Foreigners are buying the pound to escape the

dollar and because they're, rightly, not entirely convinced by the Euro. But, sooner or later, Gordon's irresponsible spending is going to catch

up with us, our debt and economy are going to be exposed and the pound will go the way of the pear, or the US dollar, as it's more

commonly known.


For all this long-term bullishness, I would not be mortgaging the house and piling in to commodities just yet, not with everything

anyway. I think we could be on the verge of a major correction in the markets, and, at first, many commodities stocks will get dragged down

in the melee. Cash, despite inflation, is not a bad place to be. Despite my belief that base metals, for example, will be higher in five

years time, I'm not sure that now is the time to be buying them. They have had a heck of a run and we are long overdue correction. In some

cases, such as nickel, they are already correcting. Uranium stocks have been to the moon over the last twelve months.

They're on they're way back down again. They may have landed. I'm expecting a year of sideways whip-sawing, much as we've seen with

gold over the last year or so.


So what do I think is cheap at the moment?

Everybody knows about the industrial revolution in the Far East. Everybody knows about Peak Oil. The cat is out of the bag and,

correspondingly, energy and base metals - the commodities that are driven by those phenomena - have all at some stage in the last year or

so reached all-time highs. But not everybody knows about inflation. They sense it, but they don't understand it. When they do the

corresponding commodities, the commodities whose use is to store and protect wealth, will go the same way as the base metals. I'm

talking, of course, about the monetary metals, gold and silver. These are the only two metals that have not reached their all-time highs, set

in 1980. Silver is still a whopping 85% of it's all time high of $50 (a slightly illusory figure it should be said). Imagine where the price will

be if gold and (more likely in my opinion) silver do what nickel or zinc have done.


I'm going to do an entire newsletter on silver at a later stage. I am very bullish. But for now, let's look at a long-term chart.


From a technical point of view, you can see why silver is encountering so much resistance at the $14-15 level, while it has support above

$10. But when it breaks $15, it’s going to $17-18 and then $25 pretty quickly. Then it’s going to $50 and when it breaks through there, who



Now let’s look at a gold chart since 2001.

I'm going to let you into a magic secret called the 300 day moving average. Since late 2001 gold has never crossed it and it proved

support again last month.


Gold and silver both made significant lows in August 2005, after a year or so of whipsawing

Look at this chart for silver in 2004-5:

Now take a look at this one for 2006-7:

And what happened after that Aug 2005 low? This.


There are so many similarities between that August 2005 low and the low we saw last month.

I believe that we have hit a significant low in gold and silver in June 2007.


There are technical arguments – and fundamental - as to why gold could, say, go back and test the June 2006 lows at $560, but I don’t

think it’s going to happen (or I'd have) invested my money otherwise. (??)

The other commodity which I think is cheap, by the way, at the moment is Natural Gas, but more on that another time.

Now let's take a look at the commodities charts adjusted for inflation and you'll see how much higher these things have to go, even the base

metals, which, I have to say, are the commodities I’m most nervous about.


As I'm supposed to be a tipster here're a couple of stocks I've been

buying and why, but first a word or two about my trading methods.


1. AIM. Generally, I don't like AIM stocks, unless they're dual listed elsewhere, usually Canada, Australia or Oslo. The shares are illiquid

and the spreads are so wide even your mother-in-law could get a bus through. It is very hard to make money. I hold the market makers and

the system they employ entirely responsible for this. In other market such lack of transparency would be verging on the fraudulent. In

Canada, however, the market is transparent. You can see exactly what the bids and offers are and it makes for more liquid trading. AIM had

an opportunity to be the leading market in the world for junior companies, even in the resource sector. Their short-sightedness, lack

of transparency and a system that works so heavily against the small investor mean they have blown it.


2. I mainly trade junior mining companies. These are extremely volatile.

Don't chase them up. There will always be another trade. Don't be scared to sell at a profit.


3. I only buy where I have met the management or seen them present.

In some cases I will buy tips from trusted sources. I only ever buy when I see and like the chart


Silver shares/ I like:

Excellon Resources (CA:EXN). Self-financed silver producer in Mexico,

also growing their resource through exploration, with innovative and inventive management. Buy below $1.35, if you can.


First Majestic (CA:FR). Another silver producer-explorer from Mexico

with Keith Neumeyer (of First Quantum fame) in charge. Share price has underperformed, a lot of upside potential, buy below $4.20.



Look no further than Platinum Australia (AIM:PLAA), property in the Bushveld in South Africa (same as every one else); but may have found

their own Bushveld in their Kalplats discoveries. Buy below £0.75, if you can.

Also put some risk money into Beartooth Platinum , exploring for

Platinum and Palladium in South Africa and North America. Buy at .11c or under and hope for some great drill results in the Autumn.



Jinshan now moving into production in China. (CA:JIN). A buy at C$2, of just above, if you can get it.


Leyshon, another China gold play, not as far down the road as Jinshan, still at the exploration/development, but good management (and an

excellent presenter) in Paul Atherley and a buy at £.25 or above in my view.


Peak Gold (CA:PIK) from the team that brought you Wheaton River, a gold producer (mines bought from Goldcorp), selling at below C$.60c

and, in my mind, a bargain at these prices. Shares should be at much higher prices and I don’t know why they’re not. If you can pick it up at

C$.55, then do so.


Capital Gold (US:CGLD) made their first gold pour this week. Well managed, well run company with good exploration upside to go with

their existing resource. Possible good results due in Autumn. Buy below US$.43 if you can.


Gold Resource Corporation (US:GORO). One of my favourite companies.

The only problem is it’s not looking that cheap. But it has excellent father, brother and son partnership in Bill, David and Jason Reid, a

great property in Mexico that produces consistently good drilling results and could be moving into production by 2008, and loads of

further upside potential, even without a move in the gold price. Buy on pullbacks.


Nova Gold (CA/US:NG) have in Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse one of the best exploration guys in the world. They have several copper-gold

properties in North America at varying stages of the development cycle, the first moving into production by 2008; plenty of cash in the

bank and are serious players, as demonstrated by the way they resisted the Barrick takeover bid. Buy at C$15, if you can.


A couple of highly speculative oil stocks that might be worth a punt are Axis Energy (US:AXGC – below US$2.15) and Marauder (CA:MES –

below C$.34). They might have landed themselves a deal. For the record, I own stock in all the above companies, except for Nova

Gold and Leyshon, for whom I have orders.


Finally, if we get a market meltdown, which, judging by some pundits I read, is not unlikely, junior miners, even though they are gold and

silver plays and gold and silver are supposed to trade in the opposite direction to everything else, will get hammered. I’m talking corrections

of 50% or more in some cases. If you don’t believe me, look at what happened to them in May 2006 and Feb 2007. So be warned. But if

gold properly decouples itself from the rest of the stock market, these things will go the moon. If they do, remember to sell some.

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EXCERPT from above

Silver/ I like:

Excellon Resources (CA:EXN). Self-financed silver producer in Mexico,

also growing their resource through exploration, with innovative and inventive management. Buy below $1.35, if you can.


First Majestic (CA:FR). Another silver producer-explorer from Mexico

with Keith Neumeyer (of First Quantum fame) in charge. Share price has underperformed, a lot of upside potential, buy below $4.20.

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If Excellon can make the right progress with its new Kilgore gold property, I might add it to my favorites

It's existing properties, including a small producing mine in Mexico, were SILVER oriented

EXN.t / Excellon ... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: C$0.48


EXN.v vs. SLV ... update / Last: C$0.48 vs. $14.42, Ratio- 3.32%


Ratio chart: C$0.48 / US$14.42: 3.32% : the lowest ratio in Years, apart from 1 or 2 days in March



Cash and Equivalents (April 24, 2020) $10.0 M (how much needed for Kilgore?)

Debt                                                           $6.0 M

Cash equivalents include 3.5 million shares of Wallbridge Mining valued at C$2.59 million

1% NSR on any gold production from 331 acres of the Arnett Project in Idaho (Revival Gold)

> source: http://www.excellonresources.com/_resources/presentation/Excellon-Resources-Corporate-Presentation-May-1-2020.pdf

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EXN finally got a bid yesterday… (after I bought some earlier this week, just below 0.48)
$0.51 +0.05 + 10.87% on 317,690 Volume

Compare: SLV : $14.81 +0.26 +1.79% /  AGQ : $23.20 +1.24 +5.65%, almost 2X gain on AGQ

EXN vs SLV, AGQ... YTD : 10d/ EXN: $0.51 / AGQ: $23.20 = r-2.2%


: 10d/ EXN: $0.51 / AGQ: $23.20 = r-2.2%


EXN Closed at..

5.0 0.48 · 0.51


Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline
2020-05-13 09:31 C:EXN 0.48 News Release Excellon hopes to file Q1 2020 financials by June 1

Excellon Resources Inc. will postpone the filing of its interim financial statements and management's discussion and analysis for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020. The Company intends to rely on the blanket relief granted by Ontario Instrument 51-502...

Management expects to file interim financial reports on or before June 1, 2020.

The following material business developments have occurred since March 31, 2020, being the date of the last financial reports filed by the Company:

  • On April 2, 2020, in response to the growing concerns around the spread of COVID-19 and Mexican government directives, mining, milling and exploration activities were temporarily suspended at Platosa Mine, Miguel Auza concentrator and the Evolucion Project;
  • On April 17, 2020, shareholders of Excellon and Otis overwhelmingly approved all resolutions put forth in connection with the previously announced business combination by way of a plan of arrangement....
  • On May 7, 2020, the Company announced an update on the Plan of Operations for the Kilgore Project in Idaho and the United States Federal District Court for the District of Idaho's decision amending its December 2019 judgment to require further environmental analysis for the Dog Bone Ridge area.


About Excellon

Excellon's vision is to create wealth by realizing strategic opportunities through discipline and innovation for the benefit of our employees, communities and shareholders. The Company is advancing a precious metals growth pipeline that includes: Platosa, Mexico's highest-grade silver mine since production commenced in 2005; Kilgore, a high quality gold development project in Idaho with strong economics and significant growth and discovery potential; and an option on Silver City, a high-grade epithermal silver district in Saxony, Germany with 750 years of mining history and no modern exploration. The Company also aims to continue capitalizing on current market conditions by acquiring undervalued projects

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Bullboard Comments - EXN / Excellon

What a wave!!!

Silver is known for violent moves. This time it is in our favour.  Next stop ...a dollar.
Oliver, I think it is the momentum trading helped by recovering silver that is pushing the Exn price up.  In this environment Exn shareholders (and management) just need to sit tight and enjoy the ride
Hey ... i see Silver and maybe also the reopening in June in Mexico but 40% and more !? whatever i like it !!, but still i think something coming up.
thought I saw Reuters news that PI Financial raises price target to $1C from C$0.80,
postponing filing of interim financial statements and an up date on Kilgore. lots of news.

Update on Consolidation and Proposed NYSE American Listing 

The Company remains intent on filing a listing application for the NYSE American, LLC exchange (the “NYSE American”) in Q2 2020, depending on market conditions. The intended listing is expected to create additional investor interest from the United States, Canada and other jurisdictions, improve trading liquidity and investor confidence, and potentially lessen volatility in the price of the Company’s shares.

To achieve the minimum listing threshold of US$2.00, the Company expects to proceed with the share consolidation approved by shareholders on April 17, 2020. The date and ratio for such consolidation will be communicated to shareholders in due course and in connection with the listing application. A higher post-consolidation share price is expected to generate additional interest in Excellon among certain investors and may meet investing criteria for certain institutional investors and investment funds that would otherwise be prevented under their guidelines from investing in Excellon at current prices.

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