PHL Sugar Producers, History & Prices

[drbubb]

Philippines Sugar Producers

Sugar vs. DBA/Ags . update: 9.12.22: Sugar#11: 18.14 / DBA: 20.67= 87.8%  WEAT/wheat: 8.81 (42.6%)

SUGAR vs PHL sugar producers ... UPDATE, June 2022

Sugar (18.33cts, 89% DBA-$20.66) vs. sugar producers:  VMC: 2.79 (15.2%), ROX: 1.57 (8.56%), CAT: 10.08 (55.0%)

History & Prices

"20-30 companies, maybe 5-6 are Quoted" / ... Sugar vs. SLV, DBA ; 5yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d:

RCI vs. ROX etc ... All: start 11.18.19 : FLIPPED :  w/Sugar, CAT: 10d / updated July 11, 2020: 1.41 vs.1.30

===. Price Index——- : Market: Last: YrLow: MT
World Sugar, no.11 ct.: $46.8B: $259: $203: 180M x
PHL: Sugar production $546M: 11.76: $9.21: 2.1M x 2,204 ($259/MT)
Sym. CompanyName: MkCp: Last: YrLow: BkVal.: %BV : EPS: PER : Yield : CFps: Debt: Yrs
BMM /Bogo-Medellin: 456M: 76.05: 73.00: 00.00: 283.% (5.95) N/A: 0.00%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
CAT / Ctll Az.d Tarlac: 2.85B: 11.98: 11.00: 14.17: 77.6%  0.77: 14.5: 1.50%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
RCI  / Roxas & Co. — : 2.75B: P1.30: P1.21: P3.90: 33.3%  0.08: 15.1: 0.00%: 0.17: 00.00: 0.0y
ROX / Roxas Hldg. — : 2.20B: P1.42: P1.28: P5.92: 24.0% (0.58) N/A: 0.00% (0.85) 00.00: 0.0y
URC / Univ. Robina -- : 272.B: 123.5: 88.88 : 39.38: 314.% 3.96: 31.2: 1.21%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
VMC / Victorias Mill. : 6.66B: P2.43: P2.11: P2.75: 88.3% 0.36: 6.74: 0.00%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
DMY / Dummy Co.—  :  000.B: 00.00: 00.00 : 00.00: 000.% 0.00: 00.0: 0.00%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
====

SUGAR price matters for these companies:

#1 : Sugar vs. CAT, RCI, ROX ... fr 11.18.19: 10d/ #2: 10d / $12.63, +0.52 , 7.31.20: RCI: 1.18, 1.41, 11.48 (ratio: 9.34%)

List#2 : Sugar vs. BMM, URC, VMC ... from 11.18.19 :10d / 7.11.19: $11.76, 76.05, 123.5, 2.43

There are at least 11 regions/19 provinces that produce sugarcane in the nation. A range from 360,000 to 390,000 hectares are devoted to sugarcane production. The largest sugarcane areas are found in the Negros Island Region, which accounts for 51% of sugarcane areas planted.

In 2005, the Philippines is the ninth largest sugar producer in the world and second largest ... As of crop year 2009-2010, 29 sugar mills are operational divided as follows: thirteen mills on Negros, six mills on ... the Industrial Sugar Central Sites of the Philippines and related properties to the UNESCO World Heritage List.

> wiki:

Sugar Prices . SB1 update : Usd per Lb. $11.76 :   Winton Capital's History of Sugar prices : since 1960 :

Sugar-no.11... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / UPDATED June 2022

Last: $18.33 , 52 Wk Range: 16.73 to 20.69, vs. yrL: $16.73: +9.56% , vs. yrH: $20.69: -11.4%

Sugar vs. SLV, DBA : 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d:

Some Sugar Producers

Sym: company --------: Last : YrLow: BkVal: P/BV: PER: Yield : CF/sh
Sug.: Sugar, no.11 ct.- : 11.76: $9.21
CAT : CentA de Tarlac : 11.98: 11.00: 14.17: 77.6%: 14.5: 1.50%: 00.00
RCI  : Roxas &Co. Inc. : P1.30: P1.21: P3.90: 33.3%: 15.1: - n/a-: P0.17
ROX : Roxas Holdings: P1.42: P1.28: P5.92: 24.0%: -n/a : - n/a-: (0.85)
===

Three Sugar Producers ... All / from 10/2016: xx .. /

RCI / Roxas & Co. ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 1.63

CAT / Central Azucarera de Tarlac. ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 12.14

===

Milling Sub-sector / source :

As of Crop Year 2012-2013, 29 mills are operational divided as follows: 13 mills in Negros, 6 mills in Luzon, 4 mills in Panay, 3 mills in Eastern Visayas and 3 mills in Mindanao.^[2]

Negros (13 mills)

• Aidsisa,   URC Ursumco (Bais),   CAB -Bais
• Biscom,   Dacongcogon,   First Farmers
• Hawaiian-Philippines,   La Carlota,   Lopez
• Ragasa F.C.,   Sagay,    URC Sonedco (Kabankalan)
• URC Tolong (Caranoche),  Victorias

Luzon (6 mills)

• URC Carsumco (Piat, Cagayan)
• Sweet Crystals Integrated Sugar Mills (Pampanga)
• Central Azucarera de Tarlac (Tarlac)

Central Azucarera de Tarlac

• Balayan Sugar Central Incorporated (Balayan, Batangas)
• Central Azucarera Don Pedro (Nasugbu, Batangas)
• Peñafrancia Sugar Mill (Peñafrancia, Camarines Sur)

Panay (4 mills)

• URC Passi (Iloilo),   Santos Lopez
• Monomer,   Capiz Sugar Central, Inc. (President Roxas, Capiz)

Eastern Visayas (3 mills)

• Bogo-Medellin,   Durano
• Kananga Sugar Mill (Ormoc, Leyte)

Mindanao (4 mills)

• Bukidnon Sugar Company,   Crystal (Maramag, Bukidnon)
• Davao Sugar Central Company (Hagonoy, Davao del Sur)
• Cotabato Sugar Central Company (Matalam, North Cotabato)
• =====

LINKS:

Sugarcane Industry: Investing in it (data)

Sugar Mills: List of...

PHL Sugar vs World price: 2018/19, Php: Comp: 1,590, A/US q: 1,163, B/Dom.: 1,630, D/World: P.661 /P52.62= $12.56

[drbubb]

RCI vs ROX ... YTD: 10d:  0.54 / 1.53= ratio 35.5% / Updated end-June 2022

RCI is still weak... It owns about 20% of ROX, the largest Sugar producer in Phl

"country's largest integrated sugar producer, Roxas Holdings Inc."

RCI... update / Last: 1.34 - 0.05, - 3.6%

When RCI gets too far ahead of ROX, it is time to sell.  That is my takeaway from the following chart

ROX vs RCI ... From 2016: Dec.2016: 2018: 10d/  RCI: 1.30 -0.04 / ROX: 1.42 -0.12 = 91.5%

from 2.22.18 startpoint (where: ROX: 3.77, RCI: 3.85), st.11.18.19 :  July 11, 2020: 1.41 vs. 1.30

RCI vs. ROX ... start 11.18.19 : FLIPPED :  w/Sugar, CAT / updated July 11, 2020: 1.41 vs.1.30

==

Websites: ROX: RCI:

[drbubb]

2019 Article with Industry Data

SUGAR PRODUCTION: just over 2 Million Metric tonnes (in PHL)

MANILA, Philippines – Raw sugar production as of June 9 inched up by 0.63% from a year ago to 2.067 million metric tons (MMT) or 41.36 million 50-kilogram (kg) bags, preliminary data from the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) showed.

This is already nearing the 2.079-MMT adjusted projected sugar output set by the SRA in early February, as crop year 2018-2019 entered its 4th quarter.

The crop year for the sugar industry begins every September and ends in August of the following year.

The total demand for raw sugar dropped by 17.77% to 1.65 MMT.

 

Production of refined sugar also slid by 7.73% from a year ago to 784,606 metric tons (MT), while the total demand went up by 5% year-on-year to 912,924 MT.

Millsite prices dropped by 24.87% year-on-year to P1,476.21 per 50-kg bag from P1,964.78. Both wholesale and retail prices also posted double-digit drops.

The sugar industry continues to brace for low supply, after the SRA in 2018 expressed worry over the decrease in field-workers.

After scrapping the allotted sugar for the world market in 2018, SRA Administrator Hermenegildo Serafica said they will be removing the sugar allotted for the United States as well.

The low sugar supply led to economic managers proposing the liberalization of sugar imports, a move rejected by industry stakeholders and even some lawmakers. – Rappler.com

> https://www.rappler.com/business/234450-sugar-production-june-2019

/ 2 /

Consumption exceeds PHL Sugar Production

15/Jan/2020 Editor Admin Philippines, Sugar Asia

Fitch Solutions, an industry-leading provider of credit, debt market, and macro intelligence solutions based on London, projected Philippine sugar production and the situation of consumption its country.

Sugar production in the Philippines for crop year 2019/2020 is projected to reach 2.1 million tons amid higher domestic consumption and as local prices remain higher than global levels, Fitch Solutions Macro Research said in its industry trend analysis.

“While unfavorable weather in recent months will lower yields and overall production in the short term, gradually decreasing sugar area due to prolonged labor shortages and rising competition from cheaper imported sugar will weigh on the industry in the longer term,” it said in the report. This projection is 4% lower than its previous production forecast of 2.2 million tons.

Target raw sugar production for this crop year is at 2.096 million metric tons (MT), down 5% year-on-year, due to factors such as weather conditions, and changes in hectarage of sugarcane planted, as well as if farmers were to shift planting other crops.

Fitch Solutions also projects that consumption will continue to increase as the domestic industrial market, or food manufacturers, continue to drive demand as they switch to sugar from high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) due to tax imposed to drink sweeteners, which is higher for sugar-alternatives. In addition, Sugar consumption is forecast to reach 2.297 MMT in 2021, 2.343 MMT in 2022 and 2.378 MMT in 2023.

> more: http://sugar-asia.com/what-would-it-be-in-philippines-sugar-industry/

/ 3 /

Multiple threats to PH sugar industry | Inquirer Opinion

Feb 22, 2019 - The Philippines has a low sugar yield at 5.1 tons sugar per hectare. Columbia yields 2.38 times more sugar per hectare; Australia, 2.15 times; ...

[drbubb]

Universal Robina, is bullish on Phl sugar industry

(The Philippine Star ) - April 8, 2019

URC is the country’s top producer of raw sugar, with a total output of 417,000 metric tons accounting for 17 percent of total domestic production. It currently operates six sugar mills and refineries across the country with a combined output of 40,000 tons of sugar cane and 32,000 bags of refined sugar per day. It URC SURE is also the third-largest supplier of refined sugar, with actual production of 2.9 million bags.

MANILA, Philippines — Universal Robina Corp.’s sugar and renewables subsidiary Sonedco marks another milestone as it celebrated its 30th anniversary with the inauguration of its new sugar mill in Kabankalan City, in Negros Occidental.

“Sonedco’s success stems not only from its investment in technology but primarily because of the partnerships that it has built over time,” said URC chairman Lance Gokongwei as he acknowledged the attendees of the inauguration, whom he cited as great believers in the sugar industry.

Sonedco’s capacity was increased to cover the growing volume of sugar canes that needed to be milled in Kabankalan and elsewhere in Negros Occidental. Its new mill, which can crush up to 6,000 metric tons of canes per day, will increase Sonedco’s total milling capacity to 14,000 tons of canes per day, and total URC’s to 40,000 tons of canes per day.

URC continues to invest in the sugar industry with the goal to help it thrive and be able to support more Filipinos. Its chairman believes that with the right partnerships, an entrepreneurial outlook, and a winning spirit, the country’s sugar industry can achieve a sweet future.

URC currently operates six sugar mills and refineries across the country with a combined output of 40,000 tons of sugar cane and 32,000 bags of refined sugar per day.

> https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/08/1908087/urc-bullish-phl-sugar-industry

The correlation with Sugar falls apart before 2016

URC vs Sugar etc ... 2000: 2014: Jul.2016: Jul.2018: Last: 123.50 / 11.76 = Ratio: 10.5x

Jul.2018: Last: 123.50 / 11.76 = Ratio: 10.5x

URC / Universal Robina ... All: 2000: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 123.50, PER: xx, Yield: xx% / BV: xx, xx%

[drbubb]

A Sugar Price Forecast For 2020 And 2021

Our sugar price forecast is neutral to mildly bullish for 2020 and 2021 based on supply demand forecasts, inflation and sugar's price chart

Supply Demand Forecast for 2020 in the Sugar Market

Mr. Orive forecasts “a global sugar deficit of about 3.5 million tonnes in 2019-20, growing to nearly 6 million tonnes in 2020-21, compared with global surpluses of 2.1 million tonnes in 2018-19 and 9.7 million tonnes in 2017-18.”

“The world is still suffering from high accumulated stocks that will need to be absorbed by the market before we can see any improvement on price,” Mr. Orive explained.

Mr. Orive is optimistic because production from major sugar suppliers appears to be declining, which will let stocks fall.

So this sounds like the oversupply of recent years is in the process of turning into a global deficit.

Mr. Orive continues:

We’re getting killed with consumption. The “war” on sugar, including sugar taxes in many countries. Recent years have shown a trend toward a slow but steady erosion in consumption. Annual consumption growth was about 2% in the mid-2000s but currently is below 1.5%. A considerable part of losses in consumption growth rates can be attributed to a slowing down in global population growth. But the sugar and health debate is starting to take its toll with the 2019-20 growth rate close to 1.39%.

And then you have the big picture supply demand factors suggesting a gradually declining demand for sugar. This obviously offsets the global deficit that is brewing.

Sugar’s long term price chart has this giant descending triangle with a top in 2011 and horizontal support at $10.50.

Before this we saw a clearly rising trend with distinct lower lows and higher highs, starting in 1999.

We expect the current triangle formation to continue in 2020 and 2021. Any trend change may potentially start in 2022 or later.

That’s why we believe the chart combined with leading indicators outlined above are nicely in synch. They suggest that the price of sugar may see a spike in 2020 or 2021 to the $16 area. Against the prices at the time of writing this is a 25 pct increase. Note that $16 is likely going to provide too much resistance to break out. Moreover we expect a classic spike followed by a decline, if and when this $16 is tested.

Although appealing this 25 pct is not the type of bull market that makes us warm to consider positions. In fact this is far from appealing. We don’t have any interest in this market as long as sugar trends within this descending triangle.

2019 > https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/sugar-price-forecast/

[drbubb]

HISTORY of Philippines Sugar Trade

The years from 1836 to 1920 constitute a distinct era in the history of the Philippine sugar industry, one characterized by enormous expansion in export and cultivation. During this period sugar society became firmly linked to the world market economy and responsive to its fluctuations. As never before, sugar developed into a separate, wealthy sector of the native economy, unique in the high degree of foreign participation. Sugar regions served as very models of a cash-crop society in the Philippines, and their leaders became among the most influential persons in the colonial order of the Spanish and American regimes. Sugar growers led the way to a transformation of the Philippine countryside as they converted deep jungle into extensive sugar haciendas, and major portions of western Negros and northern Pampanga felt this impact. Yet while the physical alterations looked the same in both regions, their socioeconomic structures developed along dissimilar lines, reflecting their unlike manners of settlement and their diverse backgrounds. Pampanga and western Negros grew up very differently.

Foremost as an impetus to this dramatic transformation was an enormous heightening in demand for sugar that started even before the mid-nineteenth century, especially among industrial nations. Sugar consumption in Great Britain rose from an annual average of 16.4 pounds per capita in the years 1840 to 1844 to 90.8 in the five years from 1910 to 1914; meanwhile, the annual rise per capita in the United States went from 14.1 pounds in 1835 to 86 in 1920.^[1] Only during periods of major war did the rate dip in either country. Furthermore, all the while per capita consumption was increasing, population, too, was multiplying, in the United States from 17 million in 1840 to 125 million in 1920 and in Great Britain from 19 million in 1841 to 42 naillion in 1921. Hence, although the Philippines remained only one of many suppliers, exploding world demand almost guaranteed the islands a bigger export market each year.

The destination of Philippine sugar exports varied considerably over the period, reflecting changing realities in world market conditions. Data in appendix B convey some sense of the shifting terminals. The United States purchased on the most consistent basis, but Great Britain bought more in the nineteenth century. Even so, these numbers may be slightly misleading, for some sugar originally consigned to Great Britain ended up in American East Coast refineries.^[2] Australia, which served as a significant outlet at the advent of the era, faded after the 1870s as it began to acquire more sugar from other sources and to develop its own cane industry. In the 1880s and continuing through the rest of the period, China and, to a lesser extent, Japan became big buyers, taking up the slack as European purchases waned.

. . . The Philippine Revolution caused a further diminution of sugar exports, as disruptions at the port of Manila and combat in central Luzon curtailed deliveries from that northern island. Port facilities in Manila closed on and off in 1898 and 1899 while contending armies jockeyed for control of the city, and the archipelago's only refinery at Malabon shut down.

The Philippines remained the last major world producer of cane sugar without centrals (centrifugal separators). The less expensive machinery introduced into the Philippines in the nineteenth century to replace the crude equipment of earlier times included steam-driven metal grinders; hornos economicos that, instead of wood, burned ground cane refuse (bagasse ) as fuel; and batteries of open kettles (see figure 2). The first two used in tandem produced more efficient extraction rates of juice from cane; the latter improved the polarization of mat sugar. By the latter part of the century, Negros turned out a good sugar with an 85º average polarization (degree of sucrose content) that compared favorably with the finished pilon sugar of Pampanga; neither kind, however, matched the 96º of centrifugal sugar. For the introduction of even this cheaper equipment, credit belongs mainly to foreign risk takers: Nicholas Loney and Yves Germain Gaston on Negros.

... The Public Land Act of 1902 ... prohibited the granting of public lands greater than 16 hectares to individuals and 1,024 hectares to corporations. This law, partially passed at the behest of American beet sugar interests, effectively prevented development of centrals along traditional lines by denying the centralists ownership of sufficient cane fields. But a careful reading of the law governing the disposal of the friar estates, newly acquired from the Catholic Church, allowed corporations to bypass the law on public domain and to buy extensive tracts of the land formerly owned by the religious orders (Friar Lands.)

In the mid-nineteenth century, new migrants to Negros included farmers who established homesteads, mainly subsistence, in coastal and interior Negros alongside the already settled Negrense smallholders. Here they grew chiefly rice, corn, or cash crops such as tobacco and abaca. The reasons for this early migration remain obscure, but they must have involved some degree of desperation, since much of this immigration did not have official sanction; moreover, local histories contain lore that some of these settlers came to avoid the law, the military draft, or various tax and labor obligations imposed by the government. Also, most arrived from overcrowded and depressed areas such as Bohol, Cebu, Antique, and the textile towns of Iloilo, suggesting that many of them sought simply to improve their material conditions, as homesteaders have done on other frontiers. Whatever the reasons, these early settlers had little effect upon the great changes...

... The original haciendas on Negros appeared in the 1840s and 1850s with the advent of such settlers as Agustin Montilla, Yves Germain Gaston, and Eusebio de Luzuriaga and his fellow refugees. Despite these early pioneering efforts and improving market conditions, Negros did not begin to attract large numbers of new hacenderos until the late 1850s. At least three factors seem to have featured in the delay. First, the threat of Moro coastal raiders lingered on and was not finally eliminated until the time of Governor Emilio Saravia (1855-57) who defeated them in the waters off Silay in 1857. Shortly after this engagement, the government stationed two steam gunboats to patrol the Guimaras Strait, discouraging further pirate depredations.

Second, Negros possessed a reputation as lacking the social and physical amenities of communities on the neighboring islands. The advent of the Augustinian Recollect friars to exercise religious control of the province served to alleviate somewhat this concern...

The immediate lift of the Crimean War, with its boosting of world prices, induced them seriously to consider risking the establishment of new plantations in the western Negros hinterland. To facilitate this movement came British Vice-Consul Nicholas Loney, who reached Iloilo in 1856. Loney, recognizing sugar's potential as an export industry, acted as a stimulus in several ways. On the positive side, he arranged for the flow of new British milling equipment, the provision of low-interest credit to pay for it, the construction of better port facilities, and the first foreign international shipments out of Iloilo, to Australia in 1859. On the negative side, by importing British cloth, he helped drive mestizos out of the textile business.

Loney established his own export-import company in 1860 and with his brother Robert acquired a hacienda on Negros a year later. In his early dealings, Loney took cash loans from the prominent American firm of Russell, Sturgis and Company, which put up its own branch at Iloilo in 1863. Subsequently, the other American merchant house in the Philippines, Peele, Hubbell and Company, and such British firms as Smith, Bell and Company and Warner, Barnes and Company entered the sugar business, encouraging the growth of the industry on Negros. Together these houses dominated foreign export of sugar from Iloilo and became the chief suppliers of imported goods and machinery, as well as a source of credit to Negros planters. Iloilo opened to international commerce in 1855, making it possible for exporters to bypass Manila as a transshipment point and thus to reduce shipping costs. By the mid-1860s Iloilo became the chief port for Negros mat, a position it held throughout the remainder of the period...

A comparison of names of sugarland holders in 1896 with those who had made purchases at mid-nineteenth century reveals a considerable turnover of property ownership in the early years, demonstrating the high risk of venturing into sugar farming. Alongside early pioneers in the 1860s appeared speculators like Ricardo Mascuñana and Marcos Villaluz, who purchased agricultural land cheaply and sold it at a higher price to new-comers. In the 1870s wealthy merchants commenced putting together big estates for themselves and their relatives. In that decade alone Teodoro Benedicto purchased 5,590 hectares for P32,477, or about P5.813 per hectare. From this time on, some consolidation of ownership occurred, and by 1896 twelve families controlled almost one-third of the 53,211 hectares of sugarland in twenty of the twenty-six sugar-producing towns on Negros. About four hundred other planters having smaller haciendas possessed the remainder, so that the size of holding averaged about 109 hectares per owner. Investing in working plantations became a common way of entering the sugar business, and by 1887 the Iloilo newspaper El Eco de Panay carried advertisements for Negros haciendas complete with machinery, work animals, and crops in the field.^[41]

Constant traffic in land serves as a reminder that transforming the Negros frontier was first and foremost a capitalistic enterprise, that haciendas represented investments first and homesteads second. Other forms of associated business activity included supplying agricultural credit, trans-porting sugar to market, and sugar brokerage. Foreign and native entrepreneurs, if they had cash, turned to these other activities, which offered greater and more reliable opportunities for profit. Owning several haciendas and leaving their day-to-day management to employees or relatives allowed bigger operators to concentrate on other economic pursuits. Teodoro Yulo over the course of his lifetime acquired seventy-five haciendas, some from his debtors, and ran his diverse financial kingdom, which included banking, from his home in Iloilo. The ultimate success story was Isidro de la Rama, a petty Ilongo cloth dealer who migrated to work a plantation in Minuluan. After seven years of farming, de la Rama switched to buying sugar and loaning money to fellow planters. Eventually, he moved into the shipping (interisland and international) and warehousing of sugar, and by the time his son Esteban took over his enterprises in the 1890s, the de la Rama fortune was one of the largest in the Philippines.^[42]

> https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft4580066d&chunk.id=d0e1083&toc.id=d0e1083&brand=ucpress

Sugar and the Origins of Modern Philippine Society

The Ilongos Teodoro Benedicto, Isidro de la Rama, Teodoro Yulo, and Eugenio Lopez held thousands of hectares of land, but many of the other 485 hacenderos ...

The Manila Club | Manila Nostalgia

Feb 28, 2014 - By 1875, Russell & Sturgis declared bankruptcy due to a disastrous speculation in the sugar industry. The banks of Barings in London and the ...

[drbubb]

Sugar vs. SLV, DBA : 5yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d:

==

[drbubb]

Domestic vs World Sugar prices

Wholesale PHL prices are about Double, and retail prices 4X the world Price

DEC 2019 / Fitch Solutions sees PH sugar market tightening in 2020; Sugar prices averaging higher | Market Edge /

13.5 cents is his forecast for 2020 .

PHL Domestic prices = "about Php 1,500" in Dec.2019 - about DOUBLE world prices

World price forecast: $0.13 x Php 6.5 x 2.2= Php 14.3/kg x 50= Php. 715 per 50 kg sack

PH sugar prices still uncompetitive' – The Manila Times

Dec 14, 2019 - In a report released on Friday, Fitch Solutions said “Philippine sugar prices will remain uncompetitive by global standards.”

THE country’s sugar prices will “remain uncompetitive” in 2020, as these are nearly “twice as high as” those in the global market, while consumption of the staple is expected to keep rising, according to a Fitch Group unit.

In a report released on Friday, Fitch Solutions said “Philippine sugar prices will remain uncompetitive by global standards.”

“Despite our forecast for global sugar prices to average slightly higher in 2020 at $13.5 per pound, Philippine prices are almost twice as high,” it noted.

According to Fitch Solutions, the country was trading sugar at around P1,500 per 50-kilo bag in recent months. For 2020, international sugar prices would be around P760 per 50-kilo bag.

“The rise in global sugar prices is, therefore, not going to make the Philippines any more or less price-competitive. With sugar imports from Thailand rising, however, it is likely that cheaper imports will cap domestic prices to an extent,” it said.

WORLD PRICE in Pesos > source: indexmundi.com

SRA seeks intervention as sugar price falls - Manila Bulletin

Apr 3, 2020 - Figures from Victorias Milling Company, one of the major sugar producers in the Philippines, showed that two weeks ago, sugar price was at ...

The Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) had sought interventions from the national government after the price of sugar dropped by P200 per 50-kilogram bag in the span of two weeks.
“We recently saw an abnormal price drop, in some cases as big as P200 in just two weeks, and before this gets worse, we are appealing for immediate intervention from the national government,” SRA Board Members …
“We are still at the height of the milling season and with the good weather, many sugar producers are taking this opportunity to harvest their sugar canes but many are afraid that if the trend of prices col-lapsing will continue, the producers will not have anything left to even think of planting for the coming crop year,” they added.
Figures from Victorias Milling Company, one of the major sugar producers in the Philippines, showed that two weeks ago, sugar price was at the ₱1,560 to ₱1,580 per 50-kilogram bag. This week, the price fell to ₱1,375 per 50-kilogram bag (P 27.5 per kg), which is just equivalent to the cost of producing the sweetener.
Yulo and Beltran said vast majority of the industry’s stakeholders who are small planters and agrarian reform beneficiaries, which comprise about 92 percent of sugar producers, will not be able to survive this loss, especially during the national health crisis brought about by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

 

Fuller & Sweeter Offers at Robinsons Supermarket

White sugar is priced at PHP 50.00/kilo and PHP 45.00/kilo for brown sugar.

Life is sweeter and fuller at Robinsons Supermarket as it offers lower-priced sugar and rice.  White sugar is priced at PHP 50.00/kilo and PHP 45.00/kilo for brown sugar.  This is lower than the prevailing sugar prices in Metro Manila which ranges at PHP 60.00/kilo for white sugar and brown sugar at PHP 48/kilo.

Shoppers can also buy rice at only PHP34/kilo to PHP39/kilo. These price offerings are a welcome initiative supported by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA).  They have been encouraging retailers to provide Filipinos more reasonable options.

> https://www.robinsonssupermarket.com.ph/news-and-promos/fuller-sweeter-offers-at-robinsons-supermarket

Compare- source: Range: 47 x 50= Php 2,350 ?? ... also: DailyMonitoring

Prices as of Mar. 6, 2020
Sugar or Cooking Oil			Lowest Price	Highest Price
			Php peso	Php peso
Refined Sugar			47	60
Washed Sugar			42	50
Brown Sugar			40	50
Cooking Oil (375 mL)			20	35
Cooking Oil (750 mL)			40	55

[drbubb]

SEASONALITY & trading SGG, the Sugar etf

There is also a seasonal pattern - that peaks in early Juiy or so / Seasonal Swing Trader - Sugar Looking Sweet > 

He identified a trade of about one month from beginning of June to end of June: L: 5/28: 10.55 > H: 6/17: 12.29 = 1.74, +16.5%

I am also looking at SGG, it lags Sugar somewhat, because of roll cost presumably. 

SUGAR vs. SGG, SLV ... 5yr: from 1/2018: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: P 11.76, 37.13, 17.43

 

[drbubb]

FINANCIAL SUMMARIES

===. Price Index——- : Market: Last: YrLow: MT
World Sugar, no.11 ct.: $46.8B: $259: $203: 180M x
PHL: Sugar production $546M: 11.76: $9.21: 2.1M x 2,204 ($259/MT)
Sym. CompanyName: MkCp: Last: YrLow: BkVal.: %BV : EPS: PER : Yield : CFps: Debt: Yrs
BMM /Bogo-Medellin: 456.M: 76.05: 73.00: 00.00: 283.% (5.95) N/A: 0.00%: 3.55: P2.50: 0.7y
CAT / Ctll Az.d Tarlac: 2.85B: 11.98: 11.00: 14.17: 77.6% 0.77: 14.5: 1.50%: 1.67: P3.51: 2.1y
RCI  / Roxas & Co. — : 2.75B: P1.30: P1.21: P3.90: 33.3% 0.08: 15.1: 0.00%: 0.17: P2.02: 12.y
ROX / Roxas Hldg. — : 2.20B: P1.42: P1.28: P5.92: 24.0% (0.58) N/A: 0.00% (0.85) P6.64: Inf.
URC / Univ. Robina -- : 272.B: 123.5: 88.88: 39.38: 314.% 3.96: 31.2: 1.21%: 7.75: 17.25: 2.3y
VMC / Victorias Mill. : 6.66B: P2.43: P2.11: P2.75: 88.3% 0.36: 6.74: 0.00%: 0.42: P0.18: 0.4y
DMY / Dummy Co.— :  000.B: 00.00: 00.00: 00.00: 000.% 0.00: 00.0: 0.00%: 0.00: 00.00: 0.0y
====

[drbubb]

Sugar vs. SLV, DBA ; 5yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d:

10 DAY chart - Gap to Silver is growing

xx

[drbubb]

new view ... update :

ROX-etc

CAT-etc : Sugar-etc: following amounts,,, pct of year's low

CAT: 11.14 /11.00=+1.27%, RCI: 1.27 /1.21= +4.96%, ROX: 1.51 /1.28= +18.0%, sugar: 11.76 /9.21= +27.7%

[drbubb]

"Parallel soft commodities" are also getting  cheap

Cocoa vs. Sugar . 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

w/Coffee: fr.jul.2018:  jan.19: 10d/ Last: 2,160 / 11.73 cents = Ratio: 181.4x

fr.jul.2018:  jan.19: 10d/

Production, millions
MetricTonnes: 2016 : 2017 : 2018 : 2019 : price : $ Value / 2020E
Sugar Cane    : 170.0: 170.6: 178.6:  170.0: $273.= $46.4B / 187.3
 “   “  Brazil     :  38.0 :  38.1 :   29.3 :  
 “   “  India.     :  22.0 :  22.5 :   33.3  :
 “   “  China.   :   10.4 :  10.5 :  10.7  :
 “   “  Thai.      :  9.02 :  10.8 :   15.4 :
 +#11:  Phil.   :  2.24 :  2.93 :   2.47 :  2.20 : $500. = $1.10B / 2.10
Sugar Beet.    :  27.7 :  30.7 :
Cocoa, MT’s   :  —— > —— > : 4.64 :  4.85 : $2380 =$11.5B /
Coffee, 60kg  :  —— > 158.0: 163.0: 174.5: $1.020  per lb. :
 “ MT’s & /mt  :  —— > —— >:   9.78 :10.47: $2248 =$23.5B /
 ==========

Cocoa Prices Hit Two Year Low As Chocolate Consumption Falters 

"The main factor is people are not in a celebratory mood." 

ICE Europe cocoa futures plunged Thursday to a near two-year low as data showed "sharp falls" in European demand for 2Q20 amid oversupply fears, reported Reuters.

Brussels-based European Cocoa Association said Thursday Europe's 2Q cocoa grind plunged 8.9% from a year earlier to 314,108 tons, making it the lowest quarterly grind in five years. 

Carlos Mera, a commodity analyst at Rabobank, told Financial Times the plunge in prices reflected consumers slashing discretionary spending. "The main factor is people are not in a celebratory mood," he said, referring to the downturn in the global economy.

Some commodity analyst uses the bean as a barometer of the economy because chocolate sales are highly dependent on consumers. So the break lower in cocoa prices could suggest the global economy is not recovering in a "V" formation but rather an "L."

[drbubb]

Big World Shortage or Surplus?

Bitter outlook for sugar industry

Drought conditions and low cane supply are pushing production way down

With Thailand in the midst of its worst drought in four decades, sugar production is falling significantly for this year's crop cycle, pushing up the price of sugar globally and placing a severe strain on the domestic industry.

Ekapat Wangsuwan, secretary-general of the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) under the Industry Ministry, said production costs have risen in Thailand due to the drought, while the lower supply of sugar cane worldwide is putting pressure on global prices.

"Global sugar prices stand at 15 cents per pound, thanks to sugar-cane plantations slashing output globally," Mr Ekapat said.

The OCSB expects sugar-cane output in the crop year 2019-20 to stand at 80 million tonnes, down from 130.97 million tonnes in the last crop year.

The board reported that Thailand's sugar-cane production from Dec 1, 2019 to Feb 15, 2020 stood at 7.4 million tonnes, down 14% year-on-year.

> https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1903400/bitter-outlook-for-sugar-industry

/ 2 /

Brazil May Have 71M Tonnes and 1M Hectares of Unneeded Sugarcane

30 April 2020

Brazil’s long-ailing sugarcane processing industry is taking another hit as the COVID-19 pandemic slashes fuel use worldwide. In Brazil ethanol made from sugarcane and gasoline compete directly at filling stations. Brazilian sugar industry group UNICA reports ethanol sales in the key center-south region dropped 20% in late March. And in recent weeks, vehicle movement on Brazil’s roads has been further restricted.

Reduced ethanol demand means mills will either produce more sugar or crush less cane. Using sugarcane crushing, ethanol production, and cane growing area data available in Gro, we calculated the impact of a sustained reduction in ethanol demand in Brazil.

A 20% decline in ethanol production in center-south Brazil would mean that 71 million tonnes of cane wouldn’t need to be processed. That in turn means that more than 1 million hectares of sugarcane wouldn’t need to be harvested. We’ve assumed that the amount of cane processed into sugar will rise from 34% last year to 40%.

Cane that is not crushed now could be processed later in the season if travel restrictions ease and economic activity picks up, causing demand, price, and sugarcane crush rates to adjust. With normal seasonal patterns disrupted by COVID-19, it will be important to monitor harvest and processing rates along with growing conditions.

> more: https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/articles/brazil-may-have-71m-tonnes-and-1m-hectares-of-unneeded-sugarcane

[drbubb]

Focus on RCI.ph : Roxas & Co.

RCI-etc ... update /

[drbubb]

Sugar breakout !  PHL Sugar stocks to follow?

Update: Sugar: $12.63, +0.52 , 7.31.20: RCI: 1.18, 1.41, 11.48 (ratio: 9.34%, started at R-XX%)

Two years: fr.Aug.2018: Sugar: $12.63, SLV: $22.65 (ratio: xx - chart starts at R-XX%),

===

[drbubb]

Sugar vs. SLV, DBA : 5yr: 4yr: 2yr 1yr: 6mo: 10d:

==

[drbubb]

RCI breaks out !  On Big volume

RCI - YTD

2-3 things are obvious, and important

Chart comments from T.S.:

"Nice and clear chart. Some observations:"

1. Big volume today on a strong day and up candle. 2. Your two fast moving averages are turning up (was there a crossove?). 3. Broke above downtrend channel.

COMPARE:

'xx

[drbubb]

RCI / ROX, Old & New transactions

RCI sells 31% share in RHI (ROX) to First Pacific (before 2015)

Roxas and Company, Inc. (PSEi: RCI), today reported that it sold 31% of its 66% share in Roxas Holdings, Inc. (RHI; PSEi: ROX), to Hong Kong-based First Pacific Company, Ltd. (HKEx: 142, ADRS: FPAFY) for PhP2.23 billion at PhP8 per share.

 

Mr. Pedro E. Roxas, the Executive Chairman of RCI and RHI, said the move “ends the sugar group’s long search for a strategic partner and will accelerate RHI’s plan to be the dominant sugar company in the Philippines”. “This partnership of RHI with First Pacific, a leading global player, will strengthen RHI and prepare it for the industry consolidation that will take place with the advent of the ASEAN integration in 2015,” added President & CEO Renato C. Valencia.

 

RCI will remain a major shareholder at 35% of RHI and will share management with First Pacific, which will have 34% ownership as it will also acquire additional shares from the holdings of other stockholders. RCI will use the proceeds to realign its core shareholders, strengthen its balance sheet, and finance its development projects focusing on the fastest-growing segment of realty/hotel/tourism. RCI is the holding company of the Roxas Group. Its main holdings are raw real estate located in Nasugbu, Batangas, sugar-related assets and businesses held through RHI, and real estate development through its property arm, Roxaco Land Corporation (Roxaco).  First Pacific, led by Filipino businessman Manuel V. Pangilinan, is an investment management and holding company with operations located in Asia and business interests that relate to telecommunications, infrastructure, consumer food products and natural resources. 

 

RCI SIGNS DEAL WITH LDA CAPITAL TO PURCHASE UP TO 1 BILLION PESOS WORTH OF SHARES

[June 19, 2020], Manila
 

Roxas and Company, Inc. (RCI) is pleased to announce the signing of a Php800 Million equity placement commitment with LDA Capital, LLC, a US and European based global investment group.  This equity placement commitment is part of RCI’s fund-raising activities aimed at strengthening its subsidiaries engaged in agri-business, real estate development, hotel operations and management. RCI will use the LDA proceeds for additional working capital and to support the reduction of bank debts.
 

Under this equity placement commitment, RCI has the right, but not the obligation, to sell shares to LDA subject to the conditions of the Put Option Agreement (“POA”). RCI will control the timing and maximum amount of the POA and may sell up to PhP800 Million worth of RCI treasury shares during the 36 months from signing of the Agreement. All transactions pursuant to the POA will be subject to required regulatory and Board approvals.  In addition to the equity placement commitment under the POA, LDA will be given a Call Option to purchase up to ninety-nine million (99,000,000) common shares of RCI at an exercise price of PhP2.38 per share, exercisable any time during the term of the Agreement.

 

 

About Roxas and Company, Inc.

Roxas & Company, Inc. (RCI) is a publicly listed holding company with stakes in (i) real estate development and hospitality through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Roxaco Land Corporation (RLC), (ii) sugar milling and ethanol manufacturing businesses of Roxas Holdings, Inc. (RHI), (iii) coconut processing and exports through its subsidiary, Roxas-Sigma Agriventures, Inc. (RSAI) and (iv) renewable energy development. RCI has been in existence for over 100 years, starting off in the sugar business but has since then diversified its business interests to other industries. For more information, please visit RCI’s website: www.roxascompany.com.ph

[drbubb]

ROX ... ytd:

ROX: 2.13 x 1.27B shs= P2.71B
x 23%= 0.62Bn
RCI: 1.17 x 2.14B M shs= P2.50B
======
rci's stake in ROX= 25% of RCI’s MktCap

Each: P0.10 ROX = 1.27 x.23 / 2.14= P0.029 RCI
Or: about 3 RCI, for 10 ROC
Today, ROX +0.19 x29%= P0.055 per RCI share

[drbubb]

RCI could be Ready-to-Roll, following Sugar and the others higher

RCI- etc ... update: 10d/  RCI-1.19 -0.01, Sugar-14.09:  Ratio: 8.44%

[drbubb]

The CHEAPEST Food stock, possibly... is RCI, Roxas & Co., (which might also be a property stock)

Cheap: by % Book Value,  and cheap by the size of its rally within the range

RCI could bust thru resistance at the 76d MA tomorrow

RCI ... Ytd: 3mo: 10d / Last: 1.22

Ideally, I would like to see RCI trade over 10M shares this week in a single day, and burst through, trading above P 1.24.  Let's see if we get that. 

[drbubb]

RCI is coming off its Lows... following the others

RCI vs. ROX etc ... All: start 11.18.19 : FLIPPED :  w/Sugar, CAT: 10d

[drbubb]

SUGAR etc... update: Sugar: 14.99, RCI: P1.21=% S., ROX: Pxx=% S.

[drbubb]

STILL WAITING for the RCI breakout ... above 1.30 & Beyond

Meantime, both sugar & ROX are still rising

RCI, Sugar, ROX ... YTD:  CAT: 10d/ P 1.22, 14.61, 1.86

Sym.: /Sugar :  11.13 : YE’2019: % chg.: Y.Low: %chg:  PER : Yield%
Sugar: 100.% : $00.00: 00.00: +00.0%: 1.10 : 0.00% : 00.0 : 0.00% :
RCI.   : 00.0% : P  1,21 : P0.00 : +00.0%: 1.10 : 0.00% : 00.0 : 0.00% :
ROX  : 00.0% : P  0.00 : P0.00 : +00.0%: 00.0: 0.00% : 00.0 : 0.00% :
CAT.  : 00.0% : P  0.00 : P0.00 : +00.0%: 00.0: 0.00% : 00.0 : 0.00% :
R/rox : 00.0% : P  0.00 : P0.00 : +00.0%: 00.0: 0.00% : 00.0 : 0.00% :
====