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Mentee's Favs - stock charts & Portfolios

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Mentee's Favs - stock Charts & Monitoring sample Portfolios (C$, Php)

These charts are for a monitoring a paper trading portfolios of a Mentee, a friend I am helping to learn stock trading

There is a PHL portfolio, started at near Php 110K, and a CDN portfolio, which started at C$1300

Top3 : vgld : vg : aag / 2020: 10d: +kst-watch: 0.125 + 0.365 + 0.28 / tinyurl.com/em-tee ... cdn: phl: updated

m9PzYzd.gif

12mo: vgld : vg : aag /

0iJ0HmJ.gif

Gold4; jun'19: +1: gld + gdxj + slv / 2020: 10d/

NzjlRnH.gif

Step #1:

Started at $1,300: 10,000 VGLD: C$1,000 + 2,000 AAG.wts ($0.15): worth C$300= C$1,300 x37= Php 48,100

Sold: 5,000 VGLD at 12 cents (raising $600), to buy VG placement at 25 cents, with "free" half warrants

Step #2:

Portf. : # shs : price : strike : Net : c$Val.:

VGLD : 5,000 : 0.125: $0.00: 0.125: $625 :
VG      : 2,400 : 0.365: $0.00: 0.365: $876 :
VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.365: $0.30: 0.065: $078 :
AAG.v: 2,000 : 0.280: $0.12: 0.160: $320 :
=====> total: $1899

x 37 = 70,263 : vs. 48,100 : +46.1%

 

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PHL: (There is also a Sample portfolio of Philippine Traded stocks, including these): APX, SHNG, PX

Apex Mining, a Philippines gold producer had a good day

APX closed at 1.11 +0.07, +6.73% on 9.2 Million, best volume since Sep.2019

APX ... update : from 6.22.19 : 12.1.19 : +Nikl/ Last: Php 1.11 /PX: 2.32 : 47.8%, /SHNG: 2.70 : 41.1% metee

L5Ey4QA.gif

With that heavy volume, the path of least resistance should be and away.  the chart looks great for a breakout now

I like APX because of its Gold production, and it has been a laggard to CA Gold stocks, but I see it beginning to catch up.

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CAD pf: #sh : price : strike : Net: c$Value

VGLD : 5,000 : 0.125: $0.00: 0.125: $  625 :
VG      : 2,400 : 0.550: $0.00: 0.550: $1300 :
VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.550: $0.30: 0.250: $ 300 :
AAG.v: 2,000 : 0.360: $0.12: 0.240: $ 480 :
=====> total: $2705

x 37 = 100,085, vs. 48,100= + 108%

END JUNE, looked like this:

Portf. : # shs : price : strike : Net: c$Value:
VGLD : 5,000 : 0.125: $0.00: 0.125: $  625 :
VG      : 2,400 : 0.460: $0.00: 0.460: $1104 :
VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.460: $0.30: 0.160: $ 192 :
AAG.v: 2,000 : 0.360: $0.12: 0.240: $ 480 :
======================> total: $2401

========== versus C$1300 cost : + 84.7%

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Update : w/Psei :

wGe5UjA.gif

Stock: Price : xShng%: %PSEI
SHNG: P2.71 : 100.0% : 4.31% :
APX.  : P1.33 : 49.08% : 2.12% :
PX.    : P2.73 : 100.7% : 4.34% :
NIKL. : P2.10 : 77.49% : 3.34% :
3mnr : P6.16 : ===== > 9.80% :
PSEI  : 6,286 : x 23.20  :
====

PHL Portfolio was about Php 134,000 vs. 114,000 approx cost, +20,000, +17.5%

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UPDATE - July 13th
PortC. : # shs : price: strike: Net: c$Value
CASH*:   520 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $  520 :
VGLD : 5,000 : 0.150: $0.00: 0.150: $  750 :
VG      : 2,400 : 0.680: $0.00: 0.680: $1632 :
VG.wt : 1,200 : 0.680: $0.30: 0.380: $ 456 :
====
Total : $prev. : $2705: Last:  07/13: $3,358
===> +$653, +24.1%: vs. starting : $1,500: + 124%

x36.4= Php 122,231

SOLD: added  above as cash
AAG.v: 2,000 : 0.380: $0.12: 0.260: $ 520 : 7/13
====

Top3 : vgld : vg : aag / 2020: 10d: +k

OSYKYb1.gif

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Active day: Sold Vangold, and agreed 6 cent placement in Emgold

UPDATE - July 14th Transactions
PortC. :  # shs : price : strike : Net: c$Value
CASH*:     520 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $  520 : from AAG.wt, at 0.38
CASH*:     812 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $  812 : from VGLD
EMR   : 10,000 : 0.060: $0.00: 0.060: ( 600 ) Cost
Emr.wt 10,000 : 0.080: $0.08: 0.080: ( 000 )
VG      :   2,400 : 0.680: $0.00: 0.680: $1632 :
VG.wt :   1,200 : 0.680: $0.30: 0.380: $ 456 :
====
Total : $prev. : $2705: Last:  07/13: $3,358
+$653, +24.1% ====> x36.4= Php 122,231
SOLD: added  above as cash
VGLD: 5,000 : .1625: $0.100: .1625: $ 812 :
BOT : minus  from cash
EMR : 10,000 : 0.060: $0.00: 0.060: $ 600 :
Emr.w 10,000 : 0.080: $0.08: 0.080: $ 000 : Free warrants
====

OLD stocks did extremely well during this start-up in trading portfolios

12mo: Sold: VGLD @$0.1625 (cost: $0.10), AAG.wt @$0.38-0.12=0.26 (cost: 0.15) / VG: Last: xx vs. 0.25 cost

b7sj2Sv.gif

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PAPER TRADING BLUE CHIPS

My Mentee yesterday wanted to buy two "blue chip" stocks yesterday.

I suggested that she do them as paper trades.  So I will assemble a paper portfolio here - using this morning's prices.

Here are her two ideas, plus one of my own (AGI).

BLUE Portfolio
PortB. :  # shs : price : PValue:   Pct.
CASH : ——— : ——— : P1,060 :   1.1%
AGI    :   5,500 : P6.00: 33,000 : 33.0%
AC.    :        45 : 732.0 : 32,940 : 32.9%
SMC. :      330 : 100.0: 33,000 : 33.0%
=====
Total: Starting: Last: P100,000: 7/15, about 11am
====

In fact, , which I am not yet ready to buy AGI just yet, since I think it can retest the March lows, or will at least break 6.00.

===

Here are some historical figures I used, to pick up AGI as a potentially undervalued stock:

Historical Record
Stock: Last - / BkVal. : %-BV : Yield : PER:
ALI    :  33.05 / 14.34 = 230.%: 1.60%, 16.1
SMPH: 31.55 / 10.41 = 303.%: 0.59%, 24.2
SHNG: P2.70 / P7.35 = 36.7%; 6.76%, 3.50
MEG. : P3.02 / P5.54 = 54.5%: 2.48%, 5.70
AGI    : P6.00 / 18.26 = 32.9%: 0.00%, 3.62
AC.    : 732.0 / 524.7 = 141.%: 1.04%, 14.3
SMC  : 100.0 / 139.8 = 71.7%: 1.40%, 32.8
TFHI  : 132.0 / 488.0 = 27.0%: 0.00%, 13.2
====

She came up with AC and SMC from an article she found online, saying these were "cheap" or "undervalued" stocks.

I could not find the exact article, but a friend pointed me to a similar one / UNDERVALUED STOCKS, 2020

Here is some data extracted from that article:

"Undervalued Stocks" per Online article
——-  :   Last. : BBP   :
Sym. :  price : Value : target : Rise?: rating?
AC.    :    762 : 911.0 :  1,075 : +41.1%: Strong Buy
AGI    :  6.50 : P8.00:  10.00 : +53.9%: Buy
ALI    : 33.95 : 45.83 : 55.00 : +62.0%: Strong Buy
AP.    : 27.40 : 35.00 : 42.00 : +53.3%: Strong Buy
Cosco P5.19 : P7.04 : P8.80 : +69.6%: Buy
MBT. : 36.50 : 54.17 : 65.00 :  +78.1%: Strong Buy
SMPH: 31.90 : 43.33 : 52.00 : +63.0%: Strong Buy
====

Comment: Best always to do at least SOME of your own work. 

Do not assume that numbers in the Press are accurate or up-to-date.  My own experience in making trades using info from articles like that is conclusive: they rarely lead to good trades, because the info is NOT good.  When I put my own research in a table, pulling data from historical sources like BPItrade's website, at least I know where it came from and how accurate it is likely to be.

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CDN UPDATE - July 14th
PortC. :  # shs : price : strike : Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :      732 : $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $  732 : -n/a-
EMR   : 10,000 : 0.135: $0.00: 0.135: $1350: $750 :
Emr.wt 10,000 : 0.135: $0.08: 0.055: $ 550 : $550 :
VG      :   2,400 : 0.700: $0.00: 0.700: $1680: 1080 :
VG.wt :   1,200 : 0.700: $0.30: 0.400: $ 480 : $480 :
====
Total :================:  07/14: $ 4,792 : 2860 :
$1300, +268.% =====> x36.4= Php 174,429

Disc, Hold.Per.: 50%,shs & 75%,wts: ( 1688 )
Total :================:  07/14: $ 3,104 : 1172 :
$1300, +138.% =====> x36.4= Php 112,986

The Market Value rose too fast, so I thought I should discount it.

I cannot sell those shares and warrants during the hold period.

so I discounted the potential profit in the shares still under hold by 50%

And the profits in warrants by 75%.

Result, even after those adjustments, is a portfolio up +138% since inception

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PHL Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = 137,162.36, +20.6%

Still holding a lot of Cash; i.e. 61.8% of NAV.

Cut the holding in SHNG in half, when it failed to move much
after decent 2019 Earnings were released. It had a tiny profit.
Bought some new shares in Roxas & Co.

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit :
RCI.   : 20,000 : 1.254 : 25,074: P1.290 : 25,800: + 726 :
SHNG: 10,000 : 2,682 : 26,624: P2,710 : 27,100: + 476 :
=====>   Total :  ==== : 51,698:  ===== : 52,900: +1202 :
Adjust : (reserve for selling costs)===  :   ( 673 ) + 529 :
CASH* :======== : (% of NAV: 61.8%) : 84,736 :
    Cash + Mkt. Value ————————— : 137,162 :
    Starting Valuation ————————— : 113,750 :
*$61,853 + realized: 22,883/ +  0,529 :  23,412 : +20.6%

20.6% in less than 4 months, is over 60% annualized. so not too bad.

 

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CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$3,562,  +174.% (p 131k)

Still finding opportunities, added some PUMA at a good price

CDN Portfolio Update - July 24th
PortC. :  # shs: P.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :      132: $  132: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $ 132 :
PUMA: 10,000: $  600: 0.095: $0.00: 0.095: $ 950: $350 :
EMR   : 10,000: $  600: 0.120: $0.00: 0.120: 1,200: $600 :
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.120: $0.08: 0.040: $ 400 : $400 :
VG      :   2,400: $  600: 0.850: $0.00: 0.850: 2,040: 1,440 :
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.850: $0.30: 0.550: $ 660: $660 :
=====
Total : ======:  $1,932: ======== :  07/24: $5,382: 3,450:
$1300, +314.% ========== > x36.8= Php 198,058

Discount 50%,sh (1020) & 75%,wt ($795) : ( 1,815 )
Total :====================== :  07/24: $3,562: 1,632:
$1300, +174.% ========= > x36.8 = Php 131,082

+174% in about 4 months, is +522% annualized.
Which I cannot believe will be sustained.

*Two stocks & Two wt  positions are subject to a 4 months
Hold period. They cannot be sold until the hold period ends,
And prices may fall by then (since many may be selling),
so I discount the prices above from C$5,382 > C$3,562.

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SPECIAL WARNING on Expensive debts, like 3.5% a month Credit Cards

In Philippines, once a person has been in a regular salaried job for a year or so, they may be eligible for a credit card.  These can be a handy way to buy items ranging from air travel tickets, to restaurants, to consumer items.  Getting in the habit of using cards can be dangerous, since it may be hard to pay them off and avoid sliding into a debt spiral.  In a debt spiral, debt from one card is used to payoff the debt on another, and pretty soon the regular card payments are only covering interest, or less, and the card balance will grow.  In Philippines this can be very expensive debt, at maybe 3.5% PER MONTH.  If you start compounding these debts they get very very expensive.  Just see what Php 10,000 can grow to in just 12 months, if you fail to make payments. (answer: P 15,111.)   This 3.5% a month compares with 1.5% a month maximum legal rate in countries like the USA.  (At 1.5% a month, $1,000 will become $1,196 in a year. That's a maximum of 19.6% compounded in 12 months in USA versus an astonishing 51% in Philippines.)

A wise rule for those aiming for FIRE is to always pay off the most expensive debts first.  And you should pay off ALL expensive debts before you start saving and investing.  (Although it may make sense to invest some small token amounts to gain valuable experience in investing.). The truth is, it very unlikely, and maybe not even possible for someone to make more than 3.5% per month, with any degree of consistency in the long term.  Personally, I think it takes a very good investor to generate returns beyond 10-15% per annum over stretches like 5-10 years or longer.  Certainly, a basic Rule is: you should not borrow expensive debt, to finance stock market speculation.   Learn how to get out of debt, and build actual savings before you start investing significant sums.

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END JULY Update

PHL Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH + AREIT = 133,943
Versus Orig. Investment (P 113,750): +17.8%

Still holding a lot of Cash; i.e. 34% of NAV.
AREIT shares should be trade-able within days

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit :

RCI.   : 30,000 : 1.241 : 37,209: P1.180: 35,400: (1,809)
SHNG: 10,000 : 2.682 : 26,824: P2.650: 26,500: (  324)
AREIT:   1,000 : 27.00  : 27,000: 27.00E: 27,000: + 000 :
=====>   Total :  ==== : 51,698:  =====: 88,900: (2,133)
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) ===: (  557) :  (  557)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio === : 88,343: (2,690)
CASH incl Realized: (% of NAV: 34.0%) : 45,600 :
    Cash + Mkt. Value ————————— : 133,943 :

+17.8% in about 4 months, is about 53% annualized. so not too bad.

/ 2 /

CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$3,562,  +154.% (P 121k)
PortC. :  # shs: P.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :      132: $  132: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $ 132 :
PUMA: 10,000: $  600: 0.095: $0.00: 0.095: $ 950: $350 :
EMR   : 10,000: $  600: 0.105: $0.00: 0.105: 1,050: $450 :
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.105: $0.08: 0.025: $ 250: $250 :
VG      :   2,400: $  600: 0.860: $0.00: 0.860:  2,064: 1464 :
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.860: $0.30: 0.560: $ 672: $672 :
=====
Total : ======:  $1,932: ======== : 07/31: $5,118: 3186 :
$1300, +294.% ========== > x36.6= Php 187,319

Discount 50%,sh ($957) & 75%,wt ($692) : ===== (1,815)
Total :====================== : 07/31: $3,303: 1,371:
$1300, +154.% ========= > x36.6 = Php 120,890

+154% in 4 months, is +462% annualized.

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Update:

08/05 : Sold PUMA at 9.5 cents (C$950), with a C$350, 58.3% profit, on C$600 cost

.......... : Cash now at $132 + $950= $1,082

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