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drbubb

Mentee's Favs - stock charts & Portfolios

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RELATIVE PERFORMANCE . +49%, vs. +4.1%:  +31% & -25%

Index :  12/31/19: 3/30/- :  8/28/:  9/30/20:  Sep.% : >8 mo :  >9mo :  >6 mo :
SPX —:   3,230.8 : 2,584.6:  3,508.0: 3,363.0 : - 4.13%: +8.58%: +4.09%: +30.1%:
PSEI - :   7,815.3 :  5,321.2: 5,884.2: 5,864.2 : - 0.34%: - 24.7%:  - 25.0%: +10.2%:
GDXJ. :   $42.26 :  $28.10:  $59.79:  $55.36:   - 7.41%: +41.5%: +31.0%: +97.0%:
Can.pt :  $1,300 :  $1.300:  $3,184:  $2,967 :  - 6.82%: + 145.%: +128%:   same
Phl.pt.: 113,750: 113,750:  131.6K: 133,075: +1.01%: +15.9%: +17.0%:   same
2.portf : 161,720: 161,720: 249.3K: 241,371: - 3.18%:  +54.2%: +49.2%:  same

===================================

END SEPT. Update -                                       --> Charts:  PHL : CAN / MT-3m: 10d:

PHL Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH + AREIT = 133,075.
Versus Orig. Investment (P 113,750): +17.0%

Chart:  PHLSugar-etc:

8KeJwCh.gif

Divs in Sep.: AREIT P1,062 + SHNG P198= P1,260
Small rise in RCI shares, covered loss on recently-acquired PLC shares

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit :
PLC   : 70,000 : 0.321 : 22,463: P0.310: 21,700:  (  763)
RCI    : 40,000 : 1.231 : 49,244: P1.190: 47,600: (1,644)
SHNG:   5,000 : 2.682 : 13,410: P2.650: 13,250: (  160)
AREIT:   1,000 : 26.41 : 26,413: 25.600: 25,600:  (  813)
=====>   Total :  === : 111,530: ====: 108,150:  (3,380)
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) = :    (  768):  (  768)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio = : 107,382: (4,148)
CASH incl Realized (% of NAV: 19.3%): 25,693:`
    Cash + Mkt. Value —————————: 133,075:
    Vs : prior Month: 131,811 :  + 1,264 : + 0.96%;

+17.0% in about 6 months, is about 34% annualized. Down from +38%
+ The month's 1% gain in NAV was entirely due to dividend capture

/ 2 /

Chart: CAN

3COp7Eu.gif

CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$2,967,  +128% (P 108k)

PortC. : # shs: C.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :    $ 32: $    32: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $   32 :
SMC. : 15,000: $1,050: 0.070: $0.00: 0.065:$ 975: (  75):
EMR* : 10,000: $  600: 0.110: $0.00: 0.110: 1,100: $500 :
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.110: $0.08: 0.030: $ 300: $300 :
VG*    :   2,400: $  600: 0.550: $0.00: 0.550:  1,320: $720:
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.550: $0.30: 0.250: $ 300: $300:
=====  Total ::  $2,282: ========: 09/30: $4,027 +1745:
$1300, +210.% ==========> x36.5= Php 146,986
Discount 50%,sh ($610) & 75%,wt ($450) : ===== (1,060)
Total :======================: 09/30: $2,967: +685:
NAV=  Realised ($982) +Unrealized Profit: $0,685
$1300, +128.% : C$2,967= > x36.5 = Php 108,296
+128% in 6 months, is +256% annualized

*Trading restrictions expire: EMR: 12.01.20, VG: 11.29.20 -> ie 2 months

Mentee NAVs: Starting:   07/31 :   08/28  :   09/30 : % chg. :
CDN Portfolio: C$1,300 :  $5,118 :  $4,559 :  $4,027  : +210%:
CDN Port adj.: C$1,300 :  $3,303 :  $3,184 :  $2,967 : +128%:
CDN x P36.9  : P47,970 : 122,881: 117,490:  108,296: +128%:
PHP Portfolio: 113,750 : 133,943: 131,811: 133,075: +17.0%
2x combined  : 161,720 : 255,824: 249,301: 241,371: +49.3%
*(6mo>12mo): +99% annualized

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Mentee portfolio: New Record NAV: TOTAL+CASH:  138K. up +21% from P114k start

There could be a further rise, if RCI & PLC are breaking out here, along with a PSEI rally. 

RCI, PLC, etc ... YTD: MPort-3m: 10d / RCI: 1.26 +0.05,.  PLC: 0.340 -0.005

scAgpe3.gif

I heard this PHL news today: 

JUST IN: House Speaker Lord Allan Jay Velasco says the House of Representatives is transmitting to the Senate today the approved copy of the proposed ₱4.5-trillion

national budget for 2021 /  www.cnn.ph

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EMR JUMPED 25% yesterday. despite weak Gold 2 weeks+ after announcing exploration plans at Mindora property.

EMR ... update: 0.12 +0.025

I am wondering what else might be afoot

dwhJyCK.gif

Emgold begins exploration at Mindora, historic property

2020-10-06 10:10 ET -

Emgold Mining Corp. has commenced fall/winter exploration activities on its Mindora property, Nevada. The company's strategy is to:

  • Organize, review and analyze substantial historic exploration data from the past operators using the latest methods;
  • Locate collars of historic drill holes in the field...
  • Model historic and modern exploration data.

Management may elect to modify exploration plans based on actual exploration results obtained during the program.

About the Mindora property

Mindora is a gold/silver and base metal exploration property located 20 miles southeast of Hawthorne, Nev. The gold-silver zone is an epithermal, carbonate-hosted, structurally controlled deposit in the Luning limestone formation. The gold-silver zone overlies a porphyry system with molybdenum mineralization. There is also evidence of copper skarn and copper porphyry mineralization on the property.

The property was discovered and worked in the late 1800s. In the 1920s, a limited amount of production came from a series of rich, silver-bearing veins. During the period 1946 to 1948, an estimated 10,000 tons of direct-shipping ore was mined from the property at an unknown grade...

> more: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C:EMR-2971908&symbol=EMR&region=C
 

 

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END OCT. Update, PHL                               --> Charts:  PHL : CAN / MT-3m: 10d:

PHL Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = 137,067. from Sept. (133,075): + 3,992, +3.0%
Vs Orig. Investment (P 113,750) : + 20.5%

Charts, PHL: 2mo: Sep-NovPHLSugar-etc:  Psei (6,324) was up +7.8% in October / vs. 5.864

hxYwwNh.gif

Philippines Portfolio

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit:
REIT  :   1,000 :  26.41 : 26,413: 25.550: 25,550: ( 863)
ION   :  13,000 : 0.963 : 12,516: P1.020: 13,260: + 748
PLC   : 70,000 : 0.321 : 22,463: P0.320: 22,400:  (  63)
RCI    : 40,000 : 1.231 : 49,244: P1.230: 49,200: (   44)
SHNG:   5,000 : 2.682 : 13,412: P2.690: 13,450:  + 40
=====>   Total :  === : 124,048: ===== 123,860:  (188)
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) =   ( 1,109): (1,109)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio = 122,751: (1,297)
CASH incl Realized (% of NAV 10.4%) 14,316:
    Cash + Mkt. Value ————————: 137,067:
    Vs: prior Month: 133,075: +3,992 :   + 3.0%:

+20.5% in about 7 months, is about 35% annualized. Vs +34% pa in SEP
+ The month's 3% gain in NAV was due to mainly two stocks

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END OCT. Update, CAN                             --> Charts:  PHL : CAN / MT-3m: 10d:

CAN Portfolio / NAV: C$3,709, & C$2,955, adjusted = from Sept. ($2,967😞 - C $12, -0.4%
Vs Orig. Investment (C$ 1,300) : + 51.6%

Chart:  CAN: +GDXJ: Ytd / xx

9aqAz16.gif

CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$2,967-adj,  +128% (NAV: P108.2k)

PortC. : # shs: C.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :    $ 32: $    32: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $   32 :
SMC. : 15,000: $1,050: 0.070: $0.00: 0.055:$ 825: (225):
EMR* : 10,000: $  600: 0.125: $0.00: 0.125: 1,250: $650 :
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.125: $0.08: 0.045: $ 450: $450 :
VG*    :   2,400: $  600: 0.420: $0.00: 0.420:  1,008: $408:
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.420: $0.30: 0.120: $ 144: $144:
=====  Total ::  $2,282: ========: 10/30: $3,709 +1427:
$1300, +185.% ==========> x36.6= Php 135,749
Discount 50%,sh ($308) & 75%,wt ($446) : ===== (0,754)
Total :======================: 10/30: $2,955: +673:
NAV=  Realised ($982) +Unrealized Profit: $0,673
$1300, +127.% : C$2,955= > x36.6 = Php 108,153
+127% in 7 months, is +218% annualized

*Trading restrictions expire: EMR: 12.01.20, VG: 11.29.20 -> ie 1 month 

Mentee NAVs: Starting:   07/31 :   09/30  :   10/30 : % chg. :
CDN Portfolio: C$1,300 :  $5,118 :  $4,027 :  $3,709  : +185%:
CDN Port adj.: C$1,300 :  $3,303 :  $2,967 :  $2,955 : +127%:
CDN x P36.9  : P47,970 : 122,881: 108,296:  108,153: +125%:
PHP Portfolio: 113,750 : 133,943: 133,075: 137,067: +17.0%
2x combined  : 161,720 : 255,824: 241,371: 245,220: +51.6%
*(7mo>12mo): +87% annualized

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Putting it all together, performance-wise for 2020 - Started in March 2020

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE . +51.6%, vs. 2.67% ( +1.2%, -19% & +26% )

Index:  12/31/19: 3/30/- :  9/30/-:  10/30/-:   Oct.% : >9mo :  >10mo : >7 mo :
SPX —:   3,230.8 : 2,584.6:  3,363.0: 3,270.0 : - 2.77%: +4.09%: +1.21%: +26.5%:
PSEI - :   7,815.3 :  5,321.2: 5,864.2: 6,324.0 : +7.84%: - 25.0%: - 19.1%: +18.8%:
GDXJ. :   $42.26 :  $28.10:  $55.36:  $53.21 :  - 3.88%: +31.0%: +25.9%: +89.4%:
3indices ======:  ===== :  ======:  ======: +0.72%: +3.36%: +2.67%: +44.9%:
Phl.pt.: 113,750: 113,750:  133.1K: 137,067: +2.98%: +17.0%: +20.5%:  same
Can.pt :  $1,300 :  $1.300:  $2,967 :  $2,955 :  - 0.40%: +128.%: +127.%:  same
2.portf : 161,720: 161,720: 241.4K: 245,220: +1.58%: +49.2%: +51.6%:  same

======

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On 10/26/2020 at 3:38 PM, drbubb said:

Latest PSEI Targets ... All-Data: 5-years: 1-year: 10d / Last: 6,491

yZYObKf.png

I could see the rally topping at several points between here and (almost) 7,000

TARGET HIT !   HERE WE ARE ... update: +UKX: +ALI: +Both: 10d/ Last: 6,959 + 41

UEVlpj1.gif

RESISTANCE IS NOT FUTILE maybe? 

PSEI now at an important resistance level - as Mentee's cash holdings grow - now at 53,268 / 142k = 37.5%

Remaining holdings are mainly Dividend stocks, like AREIT & SHNG

AREIT announced today: "At its regular meeting held this morning, approved the declaration of cash dividends of P0.34 per outstanding common share for the third quarter of 2020... Payable on Dec. 17, 2020 to stockholders on record as of Dec. 7, 2020. 

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Excellent discussion on investing, from one of the world's BEST INVESTORS

(start near the End maybe - he talks about how he is "waiting...")

He's NOT bullish on US, nor on the USD over the next 12 months
Jeffrey Gundlach — Waiting For The Next Big Trade (w/ Raoul Pal)         >

==

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PSEI Almost 2% down; Testing Support?

PSEi: 6,791.46 -136.29 (-1.97%) ... PSEI: ytd: w/Ukx: /6,364= 106.7%

amAQrRE.gif

Meantime. Mentee* Portfolio hit a new high: 146,179
Cash is 105,496, or 72%.
Only two stocks are left. Both dividend payers: AREIT (4.53% @ 27.30) & SHANG (5.71% @ 2.74)

*(NOTE: Mentee portfolio is a small scale version of my larger PHL portfolio. Through the Mentee portfolio I am helping manage a portfolio with a Young friend who wants to learn about stock trading. 

She invested P 113,750 about 8 months ago and so is now up P 32,429, or +28.5%

Now sitting mostly in cash, and that gives us a seasonal opportunity, to shift focus somewhat.

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WEALTH & the Crisis in Capitalism.  

Really excellent interview here with a guy who is probably the world's most successful Hedge Fund manager: 

Ray Dalio's introspective look at financial world order, inequality and capitalism: Full interview >

===

Dalio's article: The Changing World Order,

Folks, I don't think Biden is going to do anything to remedy the Crisis in Capitalism, if he is confirmed, so think deeply about the danger of holding cash

- My PHL portfolio has a lot of that, so I will be thinking some deep thoughts about what to do with it

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What's Cheap now?   Gold & Gold stocks (silver too)

GLD vs.... 4yr: YTD / Last: $169.51/142.80, +18.7%, GDXJ: $49.13/42.26, +16.2%
GDX: $34.04/ 29.28= +16.3%, SLV: $21.72/ 16.68= +30.2%, AGQ: $40.58/ 31.65= +28.2%

v00m1cX.gif

Rick Rule agrees / Gold Stocks on Sale with Rick Rule

/ 2 /

Grandich’s 4 picks: AMX-C$3.00, #1: Vanstar, (img), #2: No.Superior Res, Radisson

Peter Grandich: We Need this Washout for Gold to Go Higher

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END NOV. Update, Philippines Portfolio              --> Charts:  PHL : CAN / MT-3m: 10d:

PHL Portfolio / TOTAL +CASH (105,496) = 146,179. from Oct. (137,067): + 9,112, +6.6% in the last month.
Versus Original Investment : (P 113,750) : + 28.5% since inception

Charts, PHL: Sep-DecSugar-etc:  Psei (6,791) was up +7.4% in Nov., +7.8% in Oct. (6.324)/ vs Sep (5,864)

i9Kx6aG.gif

Sold off the following shares: RCI, PLC, ION ... as I saw potential peaking of PSEI happening. (Sugar seemed to be weakening too.)

I kept, AREIT (4.53% yield) & SHNG (5.71%), the two "high yield" dividend-paying shares

Philippines Portfolio

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit:
AREIT:  1,000 : 26.41 : 26,413: 27.350: 27,350:  + 937
SHNG:  5,000 : 2.682 : 13,412: P2.740: 13,700:  + 288
=====>  Total :  === : P39,825: ===== P41,050 +1,225
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) =     (  367):   ( 367)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio = P40,683:  + 858
CASH incl Realized (of NAV 72.2%):  105,496 :
    Cash + Mkt. Value ————————: 146,179:
    Vs: prior Month: 137,067: +9,112 :   + 6.6%:

+28.5% in about 8 months, is about 43% annualized. Vs +35% pa in OCT
+ The month's 6.6% gain in NAV was due to mainly... gains on RCI & PLC

My comment for the viber chat was:  Did okay in Nov: +6.6% in PHL portfolio.  A little behind the 7.4% gain in the PSEI. I am happy about that, since the portfolio started the month with 10% cash, and ended the month with 72% cash - And I think it possible that the PSEI index may have started a correction.  

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DIVIDENDS : from AREIT & to Mentee for Christmas

We sold Half of the AREIT shares yesterday at 27.70.  And also paid a dividend* to Mentee (P3,500),

And will invest a big slice of the Cash in the CAN portfolio, taking advantage of the cheap Gold shares in Canada.

There will be a Dividend of 0.34 per share to be received in mid.Dec.  on the AREIT shares we kept.

*(Bought some gold jewelry and two books on investing)

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END NOV. Update, Canadian Portfolio:           --> Charts:  PHL : CAN / MT-3m: 10d:

A Down month, -3.3%.  Drop was mainly due to the slide in Gold & Gold shares.  (GDXJ: -xx%)

Our Stocks are now tradable, but the ideal selling window has come & gone.  Rally may be due in Dec.

CAN Portfolio / NAV: C$2,859, free trading = from Oct. ($2,955-adj.): - C$ 96, -3.25%
Versus Original Investment: (of C$ 1,300) : + 119.9%

Chart:  CAN: +GDXJ: Ytd /

O2TCHpw.gif

CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$2,967-adj,  +128% (NAV: P108.2k)

PortC. : # shs: C.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :    $ 32: $    32: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $   32 :
SMC. : 15,000: $1,050: 0.070: $0.00: 0.070: 1,050: $   0:
EMR* : 10,000: $  600: 0.075: $0.00: 0.075:    750: $150:
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.075: $0.08: 0.045: $ 000: $.   0:
VG*    :   2,400: $  600: 0.385: $0.00: 0.385: $ 925: $325:
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.385: $0.30: 0.085: $ 102: $102:
=====  Total ::  $2,282: ======== : 11/30: $2,859 + 577:
$1300, +120.%  ======== > x37.1 = Php 106,069
Discount 50%,sh ($000) & 75%,wt ($000) : ===== (0,000)
Total :======================: 11/30: $2,859: +577:
NAV=  Realised ($982) +Unrealized Profit: $0,577
$1300, +120.% = C$2,859= >x37.1 = Php 106,069
+120% in 8 months, is +180% annualized

*Trading restrictions expired: EMR: 12.01.20, VG: 11.29.20 ->are now free trading

Mentee NAVs: Starting:   07/31 :   09/30  :   10/30  :  11/30  : % chg. :
CDN Portfolio: C$1,300 :  $5,118 :  $4,027 :  $3,709  :  $2,859 :
CDN Port adj* C$1,300 :  $3,303 :  $2,967 :  $2,955 :  $2,859 : +120.%:
CDN FX rate   : x 36.90 :  x 37.20 :  x 36.50 :  x 36.60 : x 37.10 :
C- portf.in PHP: 47,970 : 122,881: 108,296 : 108,153 : 106,069: +121.%:
PHP Portfolio: 113,750 : 133,943: 133,075: 137,067: 146,179: +28.5%
2x combined*: 161,720 : 255,824: 241,371:  245,220: 252,248: +56.0%
Monthly performance   : ====== :  - 3.20% : + 1.59% : +2.87% :
*(8mo>12mo): +84% annualized

THE PEAK so far for the combined portfolios was the end of July. at Php 255.8K

That is not surprising, since Gold peaked at $2.069 in early August, and most of the strong gains
were fueled by rises in Gold stocks, acquired a discount along with free warrants.
Though we recognized the risk of price falls, there was little we could do before now.
because. the most valuable Canadian positions were restricted by four month hold restrictions.
The last of those restrictions expired Dec.1st, so these stocks will be easier to manage now..

*(I anticipated some price pressure so I ADJUSTED the valuations, discounting the huge gains.
Subtracting 50% of stock gains, & 75% of warrant gains until we could trade the stocks.  Without
this adjustment the portfolio would have dropped 23% from $3,709 end Oct, to $2,859 at end Nov.,
compared with a -4.8% drop in GDXJ, the Junior Gold stock index, down from $55.91 to $53.21.)

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GOLD's DIP gives us a great Opportunity!

(check video above: Rick Rules says: "Gold Stocks are on Sale!")

GDXJ vs. Mentee's Canadian stocks:  from July-Dec.2020:

eHjqghf.gif

DESPITE the pressure in the Canadian stocks in the portfolio, we are still up 120% since start

Here's how we have taken advantage of cheap prices in Canadian Gold stocks...

 

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HOW THE MAGIC TRICK WORKS

Update chart: A shift from what's full valued (PHL) to what's cheap (Gold stocks)

c3WuCze.gif

A comparison.  Can you guess what I am buying? .

Answer: A Canadian-quoted gold exploration stock that I have traded profitably several times before

Here's one of my favorite Gold explorers, drilling out a large Gold deposit in Canada.  (see: WM thread.)

8Q52cHY.gif

WM.t / Wallbridge Mining,  Above is a 3-year chart showing cycles, I made when I bought WM. (YTD chart)

We bought 3,000 shares for the CAN portfolio of WM.t at C$0.78. (= Php 86,000)
I had only C$32 spare cash in the CAN portfolio, so I "lent" Php 85,000 to the CAN portfolio to cover the cost.
I will charge 1% a month interest to the Canadian portfolio, for an expected hold period of a maximum of 3-6 months.

My PHL portfolio now looks like this: (Note: Sold 500 AREIT shares at P27.70 since Month end):

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit:
AREIT:     500 : 26.41 : 13,207: 27.550: 13,775:  + 568
SHNG:  5,000 : 2.682 : 13,412: P2.710: 13,550:  + 138
=====>  Total :  === : P26,619: ==== : P27,325:  + 706
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) =      (  245):   ( 245)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio =  P27,080+ 461
LOAN , to CAD portfolio, 1%/month :  P85,000:
CASH incl Realized (of NAV 21.0%):    30,723 :
    Addback DIVs paid to Mentee, Dec:   3,500 :
    Cash + Mkt. Value ———————— : 146,303 :

Meantime, I have added to the Canadian stock portfolio:

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit:
WM.t :   3,000 : $0.76 : $2,280 : $0.83 : $2,490 : + 210:
LOAN from CAD portfolio, 1%/month: P85,000 : +    8:
           Conv, to CAD at 37.42.....  = CAD $2,272 :
           PROFIT on Position                    :   $   218 :  $218:
 

This profit is about P8,000 and takes the combined.portfolios of over P260K, a record high

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The OFFICE MARKET may Never again be the same

AREIT may also be effected by the Work-From-Home trend. So we SOLD our AREIT shares

Nr8BNBL.jpg

OFFICE RENTS must be under pressure in PHL too.  walking around Makati today, i saw about half a dozen signs of Offices for rent. 

Consequently, I sold the last of my AREIT shares today. capturing the latest dividend and a capital gain too.  Why? I reckon I will have chances to buy AREIT cheaper,. maybe much cheaper in 2021. A cheaper price will mean a better yield,  so I capture the divs & cap.gain and move on.  Meantime, I found another share with a decent dividend (5%+ historically). It looks cheap relative to rising PSEI (& has some logical correlation to the index- given that it owns the Philippine Stock Exchange.). Over 5% expected Yield. And next dividend will come about when AREIT's next Quarterly div is due, and this one will be like 4X larger.  AREIT has about a 5% Yield and pays only 1/4 of that every 3 months. PSE pays its dividend annually, in one shot.

After selling 500 shs of AREIT at 28.10, and buying 100 shs PSE today at 156.10...

The Current PHL portfolio
Portfolio + Cash: 142,781 - incl. 85k loan >Can.
Adjustment # 1. :    3,500 - Div paid to Mentee
====================
Value, adj.1 —   :  146,281
Adjustment # 2 :        153 - Areit x 0.34/sh x90%
====================
All-in value — :   146,434  vs. End.Nov: 146,179
Chg.: +0.17%. :    + P 255 in December, so far

Charts ... from 2020: +UKX:  Sep-Dec: 10d :: PSE: 155.0 / PSEI: 7,154 = r-2.17%

KFVsFUI.gif

I continue to think that PSEI may be in the process of rolling over.  If it does, I am thinking that PSE will fare better, partly because of its dividend, which Bigcharts reports at 5.68% (P 8.8 on 155.).   Last dividend was paid near the end of Q1.2019. so about 4 months from now.

Here's the historical correlation between PSE and PSEI. 

Charts: All: w/Ukx: 10yr: 5yr: w/Ukx: fr.2020: w/Ukx: 10d:

ELmN0ea.gif

Time : PSE / PSEI : Ratio / UKX : P/uk R.
12/10: 155 / 7,154: 2.17% : 6,586: 108.6%
Ye;’19: 175 / 7,815: 2.24% : 7,542: 103.6%
Ye’18: 180 / 7,466: 2.41% : 6,728: 111.0%
Ye’17: 240 / 8,558: 2.80% : 7,688: 111.3%
Ye’16: 238 / 6,841: 3.48% : 7,143: 95.77%
5 yrs: Ave./ 7,567  2.68% : 7,137 106.0%

5yr: w/Ukx: YTD: w/Ukx: 10d:

eYwnUKN.gif

===

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Gold & Silver are UP, and the CAN portfolio is starting to benefit

CAN Portfolio... from July: 10d/ GDXJ  @12.17 $55.65 +$2.37, +4.45% yesterday

huTHqXd.gif

( Will update below after Friday’s close. +$000 from C$3,108 )

CDN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$3,108  (NAV: P117.2k) at 12.17

PortC. : # shs: C.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :    $ 32: $    32: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $   32 :
SMC. : 15,000: $1,050: 0.065: $0.00: 0.065: $ 975: (  75)
EMR* : 10,000: $  600: 0.070: $0.00: 0.070:    700: $100:
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.070: $0.08: 0.000: $ 000: $.   0:
VG*    :   2,400: $  600: 0.430: $0.00: 0.430: 1,032: $432:
VG.wt :   1,200: $  000: 0.430: $0.30: 0.130: $ 156: $156:
WM    :   3,000: $ 2280: 0.830: $0.00: 0.830: 2,490: $110:
Loan Phl 1%/m.( 2280): P85.0/ 37.28 :
“ inter.:   0,850: $    23 : P85.85/ 37.70:    
“FX gain            (.    26) ========== : ==== : (2,277):   $  3:
=====  Total :: $2,279: ==========: 12/17: $3,108 + 830:
NAV=  Realised ($982) + Unrealized Profit : $  830
$1300, +139.% = C$3,108= >x37.7 = Php 117,172 (vs. 106,069 at end Nov.)

CAN Portfolio
SO FAR this month: Change from End Nov'20.: vs Starting Amt.
CAD:   $3,108 - C$2,859 = +C$   249, +8.71% = C$1,300  + 139%
PHP* 117,172 -106,069 = +P 11,103, +10.5% = p 47.97k + 108%

*PHP equiv. of CAD value,  boosted by stronger CAD in Dec.

Gold & Silver are UP, and the CAN portfolio is starting to benefit
Taking a loan from PHL portfolio, to finance the purchase of WM.t/
Walbridge mining has helped, adding C$113 gain.
The other shares could FLY if Gold & silver prices keep rising.
And the Tax Loss selling ends.  Normally, it is over by Christmas.

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MY EMAIL to a friend asking for a Christmas stock tip

I have been buying a few shares on MCI / Minnova recently, and WM / Wallbridge
Prices: Below, C$0.24. and C$0.80
These are risky, but if you put a total of less than 10% of your portfolio in these two combined, you could do okay
No promises, of course.
Some oll stocks might be worth a look, like MUR, where I own calls
 
Be careful and look at this Video with David Hunter, he seems on the mark to me.
 
 

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CAN up 10.9% in Dec. / Overall results may soon benefit from the P 85K Shift to Canada

2020 Year End positions:
Symb.: 11/30 : Yr.End : %-Chg.
PSEI  : 6,791. :  7,140. : +5.14%
PSE  : 159.00 : 153.90 : - 3.21%
SHNG: P 2.74 : P 2.71 : - 1.09%
$/PHP : 49.18 : P48.00: - 0.38%
Cad/P: 37.08 : P37.72 : + 1.73%
====
SPY.   : 363.67: 373.88: +2.81%
GLD   : 167.79 : 178.36: +6.30%
GDXJ : $49.61: $54.24: +9.33%
EMR.v : 0.080 : $0.080: +0.00%
SMC.t : 0.065 : $0.070: +7.69%
VG.v.  : $ 0.35 : $0.440:  +25.7%
WM.t. : $0.78 : $0.780:  +0.00%. -> the CAN stock we bought with P85k loan. No Change
CANpt: 2,859 : $3,170 : +10.9%
=====

Gold shares are UP on the month, testing top of the Downtrend. CAN portfolio starting to benefit

Could jump in early 2021, now that Tax Selling has ended. Catch-up to GDXJ, and beyond can happen quickly.

CAN Portfolio... from July: 10d/ GDXJ  @12.31 $54.24 -$0.57, -1.04% yesterday

tvu4SsE.gif

CAN Portfolio / TOTAL + CASH = C$3,170  (NAV: P119.6k) at 12.31 /

PortC. : # shs: C.Cost: price: strike: Net: $Value: Profit:
CASH :    $ 32: $    32: $1.00: $0.00: $1.00: $   32 :
SMC. : 15,000: $1,050: 0.070: $0.00: 0.070: 1,050: $.  0:
EMR* : 10,000: $  600: 0.080: $0.00: 0.080:    800: $200:
Emr.wt 10,000: $  000: 0.080: $0.08: 0.000: $ 000: $.   0:
VG*    :   2,400: $  600:  0.440: $0.00: 0.440: 1,056: $456:
VG.wt :  1,200: $   000: 0.440: $0.30: 0.140: $ 168: $168:
WM    :   3,000: $ 2280: 0.780: $0.00: 0.780: 2,340: $. 60:
Loan Phl 1%/m.( 2280): P85.0/ 37.28 :
“ inter.:   0,850: $    23 : P85.85/ 37.72:    
“FX gain            (.    27) ========== : ==== : (2,276):   $  4:
=====  Total :: $2,282: ==========: 12/31: $3,170 + 888:
NAV=  Realised ($982) + Unrealized Profit : $  888
$1300, +144.% = C$3,170 >x37.72 = Php 119,572 (vs. 106,069 at end Nov.)

CAN Portfolio
FOR DEC.=== : === Change from End Nov'20: vs Starting Amount
CAD:   $3,170 - C$2,859 = +C$   311, +10.88% /C$1,300  +143.8%
PHP* 119,572 -106,069 = +P 13,037, +12.29% /p 47.97k  +149.3%

*PHP equiv. of CAD value,  boosted by stronger CAD in Dec.

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PHL up 0.68% in Dec. / Interest on the P 85K Loan helped

2020 Year End positions:
Symb.: 11/30 : Yr.End : %-Chg.
PSEI  : 6,791. :  7,140. : +5.14%
PSE  : 159.00 : 153.90 : - 3.21%
SHNG: P 2.74 : P 2.71 : - 1.09%
AREIT:  27.35 :  29.35 : +7.35%
PHLpt: 146.0k: 147.2k: +0.68%
====

PHL chart ... from 2020: +UKX:  Sep-Jan: 10d :: PSE: 153.9 / PSEI: 7,140 = r-2.16% (was 2.17%)

4KQ9Sqr.gif

I continue to think that PSEI may be in the process of rolling over.

My PHL portfolio now looks like this: (Note: Sold the Last 500 AREIT shares at P28.10 in Dec.):

Portf. : # shs :  Aver. : P. Cost : price : MktVal.: Profit:
AREIT:     000 : 00.00 :     000 : 29.350:      000 : +      0
PSE:        100 : 156.56: 15,656: P153.9: 15,390:  ( 266)
SHNG:  5,000 : 2.682 : 13,412: P2.710: 13,550: + 138
=====>  Total :  === : P29,068: ==== : P28,940:  (128)
:Adjust: (reserve for selling costs) =      (  259):  ( 259)
:Adjusted Value of Stock Portfolio =  P28,681:  ( 387)
LOAN , to CAD portfolio, 1%/month : P85,850:
CASH incl Realized (of NAV 21.0%):    29,144 :
    Addback DIVs paid to Mentee, Dec:   3,500 :
    Cash + Mkt. Value ———————— : 147,175 :

We are  saving a position of AREIT in the portfolio, because I intend to buyback in, at some future point.

At some point in 2021, we may pair-trade AREIT with SHNG, when I have more historical price data.

The PHL Dec profit is about P1K and takes the combined.portfolios to  P266.7K, another record high

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COMPARISON & TIMELINE

Putting it all together, performance-wise for 2020 - Started in March 2020

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE . +64.9%, vs. 9.47% ( +16%, -16% & +28% )

Index:  12/31/19: 3/30/- :  6/30/-:  9/30/-:  12/31/-:  4thQtr : >12mo :
SPX —:   3,230.8 : 2,584.6:  3,100.3: 3,363.0: 3756.1 : +11.7%: +16.3%:
PSEI - :   7,815.3 :  5,321.2: 6,207.7: 5,864.2: 7,139.7 : +7.84%: -16.2%:
GDXJ. :   $42.26 :  $28.10:  $49.58: $55.36:  $54.24 :  - 2.02%: +28.3%:
3indices ======:  ===== :  ======:  ======: =====:  +5.77%: +9.47%:
Phl.pt.: 113,750: 113,750:  127.0K: 133.1K: 147,175: +10.6%: +29.4%:
Can.pt :  $1,300 :  $1.300:  $2,401 :$2,967 : $3,170 :  +6.84%: +143.8%:
2.portf : 161,720: 161.7K: 215.0K: 241.4K: 266,747: +10.5%: +64.9%:

====> Considering we started at the of march, annualized is 86.5% pa

TIMELINE
===:  CAN : PHL.port : Both / : month : >start
Mar : 1,300: ======> 161.7k :

May: 2.0k-e 115.0 K : 188.0k-e: =====: +16.3%
Jun : 2,401: 127,000 : 215.0k/ : +14.4%: 33.0%
Jul. : 3,303: 133,943 : 255.8k/ : +11.9%: 58.2%
Aug : 3,184: 131,811 : 250.1k/ : - 2.23%: 54.7%
Sep : 2,967: 133,075 : 241.4k/ : - 3.48%: 49.3%
Oct : 2,955: 137,967 : 245.2k/ : - 1.57%: 51.6%
Nov : 2,967: 146,179 : 252.2k/ : +2.85%: 56.0%
Dec : 3,170: 147,175 : 266.7k/ : +5.75%: 64.9%

There was little trading until May 2020

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Ready to Roll? 

GDXJ vs...  update: +smc: +vg: 10d / 2021's first trading day: GDXJ: $58.05 +7.0%,

WM.t: $0.81 +3.85%, EMR.v: $0.08 +0.00%, SMC.t: +$0.07 +0.00%, VG.v: $0.44, +0.00%

a7x1qTj.gif

Tax-selling done, mining stocks like WM and EMR held in the Mentee portfolio may be set to follow GDXJ higher

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RCI got too cheap (relative to Sugar, at under 8.0%*) so we bought back in.

We added 25,000 RCI shares, at an average cost of just under Php 1.24 per share, having sold higher.

Sugar: $16.25, Dec.2019: Dec'18 ... 10d /  RCI: 1.23,  ROX: 1.64, CAT: 13.70, @ 1.06.2021

830bvrq.gif

Sym:/ Sugar : YrE’19: YE'20: Sugar:  %chg.: 01.07 : Sugar
Sugar: 100.%: $13.42: 15.49: 100.%: +11.5%: 15.66 : 100.%:
RCI.   : 16.2%: P 2.17 : P1.29: 8.33%: - 40.6%:  1.24 : 7.92%:
ROX  : 13.4% : P1.80 : P1.81: 11.7%: +0.56%:  1.65 : 10.5 %:
Rox/R:  ==== : 82.9%: 140.% =====:  =====: 133.%:  =====:
CAT. :   130.%: 17.48 : 14.64: 94.5%: -16.2%: 13.98 :  89.3%:
Cat/R:   ==== : 8.06 x: 11.4x: =====: +40.8%: 11.3x : =====: :
PSEI :   130.%: 17.48 : 7,140: 94.5%:  +00.0%:  7,120 :  89.3%:
rci/P..   ==== : 0.00% : 0.00%: =====: +40.8%: 1.74% : =====:

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PHL Portfolio = Rollover delayed? maybe

Added 25,000 RCI, and so I now have a new chart, so we can see the PHL portfolio performance quickly.

PHL chart ... from 2020: +UKXSep-Jan: 10d :: PSE: 152.0 / PSEI: 7,290 = r-2.08% (was 2.16-2.17%)

GYJgxSG.gif

Note that RCI/ Roxas & Cia, had caught up with PSEI, and then made a deep pullback, which we just bought near 1.24

===

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