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RESET! Debt-fueled Growth Ending? New FX? Targets

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RESET: Debt-fueled Growth ending?... A New Currency ahead? Price Targets

SPX chart shows 40+ years of Debt fueled growth, when "Buy the Dip" always worked

NOW we may have 5-10 years of "Sell the Rally" for stocks, as funds flow to Precious metals and elsewhere

PRICE TARGETS?  Scroll down

Steps coming for an FX RESET within months may be

1. Peak in Bonds (Done? Or Ahead? maybe "US Rates will go to negative", as Raoul Paul thinks)
2. More deflation, but many prices are already below production costs, so limited downside
3. Inflation measures bottom, then prices will start to rise.  The Fed may fear raising rates.
4. Inflation recovers fast, & rages out of control, & eventually the Dollar weakens?
5. Dollar weakness may lead to a currency reset, perhaps using govt backed Cryptos

SHORT TERM UPDATES:

10-day Chart: GLD: $146.30 +4.4% / TLT: $166 +4.1% / SLV: $12.31 +5.9%/ (old1)

Showing SLV/Silver's Low: GLD/Gold, SLV/Silver:

U0puIEz.gif

======

SPX - since 1978 / Last: 2,305 -4.3% vs. YrH (3,394) : -32.1%

ti03iro.gif

Bonds. TLT/ Long term Treasuries etf : All / Last: $159.43 +7.5% vs. YrH (179.70) : -11.3%

qtDKLO2.gif

The previous spike on TLT ($121.9 on 12.30.08) came almost 100 days before the Low in SPX ($676.5 on 03.09.09)

mn1gTM6.gif

INFLATION Measures - Crashing Fast... but for how long?
USO / Oil ... All : Last: $4.94 -8.0% / $xx vs. Yr.H: ($13.85 / $xx) : - 64.3%

diUUjZg.gif

DBA / Agriculture ... All : Last: $13.99 +0.8% vs. Yr.H: ($16.99) : -17.7%

TMuXHLk.gif

GLD / Gold... All : Last: $140.11 +1.5% vs. Yr.H: ($159.37) : -12.1%

Dc5voOI.gif

==

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A FINE DISCUSSION about how the last 40 years success came from Leveraging Growth

Hedge funds grew large and successful, by buying dips, and selling Volatility, betting on the next Rally

But if you look longer term period. WEALTH WAS DESTROYED, if those short volatility, long growth strategies were maintained

PORTFOLIO Allocations, are a function of herding...

This is Excellent !

Does "Buying the Dip" Pay Off? (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)



"The snake (corporations fueled by Debt) has been eating its own tail (continuing buybacks)"

"i clearly believe in Intrinsic value."

To win now... You need to boldly size undervalued/ under-owned "counter-trend" sectors" (such as Gold)

"Most funds have portfolios that are TILTED towards growth assets."

Even "Real estate is a LEVERED GROWTH ASSET" = Dangerous in a time of Low growth

======

The 1970s Bear Market, was one of the "worst ever"

FEgVYhl.jpg

Above is nominal prices but there was a lot of inflation too, so if you look at the REAL value of stocks, the picture is even worse

(see below)

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The 1970s Bear Market, was one of the "worst ever"

FEgVYhl.jpg

Here's the Long term picture, using the...

Dow Jones Industrial Average / DJIA: All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / $19,174 vs $29,569 High, -35.2%

H2ICKCi.gif

SEVENTIES DOW JONES ... March 1971 to Dec. 1982 : "sideways move" with a big DROP: 1,050 > 577 : - 45%

JoPu9Kr.gif

Above is nominal prices but there was a lot of inflation too, so if you look at the REAL value of stocks, the picture is even worse

xx

 

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TARGETS for 2020 Turns

INDU ... since 2009 : $19174 vs 2009 Low: 6,469 > '20H:$29,568 +357%: PEAKED? / Target: $16,000? (Wave A)

4WtNF1s.gif

SPX . since 2009 : $2305 vs 2009 Low: $666 > '20H:$3394 +409.6%: PEAKED? / Target: $2,000-2100?; then $1800 (wv.A)

YpqtuVM.gif

BONDS / TLT: since 2009 : $159.52 vs 2009 Low: $87 > '20H: $179.70, +106%: PEAKED possibly? (if no Zero % on LT bonds)

A low of 128-130 is possible in 2020,  But at some stage, I expect a bigger meltdown in Bonds

Z83n13i.gif

GOLD / GLD: since 2009 : $140.11 vs 2009 Low: $80 > '20H: $159.37, +99.2% Target: $100 or $200? (see below)

kAIT0Ve.gif

DOLLAR / DXY: since 2009 : $102.4 vs 2009 Low: $74 > '20H: $102.4, +38.4%, Target: if breakout about $104, then $106-8

yhBl8p1.gif

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GOLD looks like it could go either way...,

Shoot up to $2000+, or drop down to maybe $1000 over the next year or two.

In fact, Robert Prechter's EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) thinks gold has peaked, and could be headed back towards $1000 (GLD $100) : chart

But that may not happen.

I am more inclined to take a clue from that past. when TLT-Bonds shot up sharply in the GFC, in late 2008. 

It looked like this: chart

ShjQ6r1.gif

As today, in the 2008-9 Global Crisis, TLT shot up by xx% in a few weeks, and SPX dropped : chart.

There was a brief DIP in Gold over a few days back to $80, and then as TLT gradually gave up its gains, Gold rose and rose.

Over the next year or so, as TLT fell -28%, Gold rose +55% to GLD-$124, or Gold-$1300 (x10.5).

Might we see the same thing once again?

Let's look at the last few weeks... GLD-vs-TLT ... since Sep.2019 : 10d : w.slv :

ODyHNv8.gif

Bonds may be close to a final peak above the $171 close, or perhaps they had it already

If the 2009 patterns follows, bonds drop about 20% over 1 year plus, while Gold rises 50%+ ($2,400+) in 2021.

(I will also look at Silver)

 

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Here is a pretty good discussion about why the Dollar should be strong in the days ahead. 

And you will hear them drop some seedcorn about Corporate defaults,  Moral hazards, and that "some day the will flick the switch, and we will see inflation."  wild arse guess when that might happen: SUMMER (after 6/30) is my current guess when inflation worries come back into the market.  And inflation will be rising from a very low base of super low Oil and Agri commodity prices

Market Carnage: What May Come Next → A Real Conversation with Danielle DiMartino Booth >

 

 

 

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Gold Shares

GDX ... since 2009 : Last:

KyyHL26.gif

XLE ... since 2009 : Last:

n2jzofM.gif

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"BLACK HOLE of DEBT"

I am not the only one talking about this now...

The COVID-19 pandemic is a perfect cover event. It is a virus with a strangely long incubation period coupled with being highly transmissible and just deadly enough (3% to 5% death rate) to cause fear within the population. This novel virus is not going to go away for a while; it will most likely stick to the global populace like glue for the rest of the year, and like the Spanish Flu which was active for around two years, the longer it circulates the more deaths accumulate.

 
 

But the virus is not the cause of the economic collapse; it is only a prime scapegoat, along with the very slow response times of many governments and the World Health Organization to encourage a shutdown in international travel from hot zones, which allowed the virus to spread unhindered. The collapse was taking place before the pandemic ever became a factor.

We are seeing this clearly now in the Fed repo market situation, which has continued to escalate as corporate beggars demand more and more liquidity that the Fed is either not able or not willing to supply. And by liquidity, I’m talking about tens-of-trillions; I’m talking about TARP level or greater fiat injections. I’m talking about direct purchases of stocks and other assets beyond bonds. The investment world wants the Fed to make it rain cash, and while it seems like that is what the Fed is doing…they are not even close yet.

Of course, the next question is, Will it even matter if the Fed initiated full blown helicopter Weimar-style inflation? The answer is no. If the Fed wanted to stall the crash, they would have introduced such measures over the course of the last year. Instead, they did the bare minimum to make it look like they cared about saving markets, which they do not.

The Weimar model, which some financial analysts out there foolishly used as a reason for predicting an endless stock market rally to Dow 40,000 and beyond, does not work because it never worked for Weimar. German stocks still collapsed in 1924, and then again after 1927; there is no precedent in which hyperinflation ensured increased stock profits or higher prices for very long, so don’t expect helicopter money from the Federal Reserve to help either.

Anyone with any sense can see that the prevailing factor of stock market performance has long been corporate stock buybacks, which have now conveniently dropped off the face of the Earth as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads. If you want to know why Fed intervention is doing nothing to reverse the damages in equities, the end of stock buybacks are a good starting point, along with the vast debts among corporations and consumers.

The black hole of debt that has been looming over the global economy has been set in motion, creating a negative feedback loop that makes any intervention useless, beyond a complete “economic reset”, which is exactly what globalists have been wanting and planning for years.

> source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash-everything-bubble-here-and-its-not-going-away-anytime-soon

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Some Big fund managers seem to have done similar research to Mine, haha

This chart makes the same point, as the article below it

ShjQ6r1.gif

It's time to buy gold, miners: prices in store for 'superior' trading next 3 years — Sprott

The March sell-off in precious metal is looking very similar to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis, which eventually led to gold’s massive rally. This trending pattern is likely to repeat itself once more in 2020, Hathaway pointed out.

“When the general selling exhausted itself in late 2008, gold and mining shares delivered superior absolute and relative performance for the following three years. We believe that this pattern is likely to repeat following this sell-off,” he said in a report published on Wednesday. 

The biggest story out of the COVID-19 panic has been the deflation of financial assets, with stocks still down on Monday even after an avalanche of monetary policy responses from across the globe.

“Markets that had been priced for perfection must now reckon with a likely recession, soaring fiscal deficits and the very real possibility of a sustained bear market,” wrote Hathaway.

Even after the COVID-19 chaos is over, Sprott does not see financial asset valuations returning to pre-crash manic levels. “Valuations are driven by investor psychology, leverage and the liquidity necessary to support leverage. All three may have been critically impaired for the near to intermediate term,” Hathaway pointed out. 

Although gold is getting caught up in the selling, it is still managing to deliver positive performance year-to-date. 

“Gold bullion is up 0.73% as of March 17, compared to -25.17% for the S&P 500 Index … The 12-month figures (as of 3/17/2020) are even more impressive: gold has returned 17.19% vs. -8.54% for the S&P 500,” said Hathaway.

History lesson: gold is going up

Going forward, even better things are in store for gold and the gold miners, which is why now might be the perfect time to buy, according to Hathaway. 

“During the 1930s credit deflation, gold and gold mining stocks performed well in relative and absolute terms. When credit deflates, and counterparties cannot be trusted, gold is the ultimate safe asset. In the 1930s, the metal price rose, costs of producing gold declined and the miners generated strong earnings and paid handsome dividends. We believe that this is a sequence that will repeat,” he explained.

Miners will be the exception this year, being “one of the few industries” that will report strong annual gains in 2020 and possibly in 2021, Hathaway added.

Right now, mining companies are “extraordinarily cheap,” and even though “buying low is never easy … now is the time to do it,” the report stated.

Gold is also offering a good opportunity to buy at the moment as more competitive investors will be joining the space while interest in the metal grows. “If financial assets struggle, interest in gold is very likely to widen,” Hathaway wrote. 

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FX RESET - the crypto angle

"#5. Dollar weakness may lead to a currency reset, perhaps using govt backed Cryptos "

=====

(this was posted on another thread here)

SUMMARY: AGENDA WARS - see thread

Icke thinks the 1% are likely to win, grabbing control.  Wilcock thinks the Good guys (led by the Alliance & Trump) are about the make Mass Arrests, putting the leaders of the 1% in Jail.  And there may be other secret agendas they may be played out, using Covid as a cover

Too many investors were super bullish at the top---expanding businesses, borrowing heavily, investing in real estate, etc. The system was too fragile to go on... with all that Debt.  By collapsing it, they can do a controlled reset. (see THIS RESET). 

This controlled reset may lead to a new currency, probably a digital currency backed by governments...  Likely we will see a Govt sponsored Crypto.  One idea is, it will be linked to SDR's.  If it is done that way, they may try to buy out BTC, and ETH. perhaps at 80-120% of market price (after a slide?) to get those folks onside with the govt crypto.

( Following are some comments on Cryptos in the reset from a viber thread )

+ Block chain? Any connection?

yes.  Likely we will see a Govt sponsored Crypto.  One idea is, it will be linked to SDR's.  If it is done that way, they may try to buy out BTC, and ETH. perhaps at 80-120% of market price (after a slide?)  This may prove useful in order to get those existing crypto users onside

+ I long ago predicted that the US and all major currency blocks (US, EU, UK) would issue their own crypto currencies.   Wars have been fought over protecting the central banks and their currencies.  US, EU, UK cannot afford to let private crypto's survive once those crypto's start to take a significant monetary volume of transactions.

Agreed.  And once holders of BTC & ETH etc see that Global govts have a viable Crypto, theirs will crash.  (And then the new crypto might make a "rescue bid" to take them over, maybe at as low as 5-10% of peak value.  But before then, we may still seem some big BTC & ETH price moves, the volatility plays out over the next several months.  In have put my scenario to several Crypto Bulls. To a man they all say: :"that won't happen" - then stop talking to me.  In other words, there seems to be NO GOOD COUNTER-ARGUMENT

+ If there are far more bulls than bears in existing cryptos, then it is more likely that a big fall is in the cards. I also noticed many crypto players have little experience in other markets. So it is more like "retail". As such, I'd rather take contrarian view of most crypto players. Big picture view, of course. Cannot be used for timing

yes. I predict a crypto rise, maybe even over the old highs, as they money printing & rescues play out.  Then, another EPIC drop.  Maybe bigger than we saw over 1 year ago.  Then, maybe, a takeover bid.  (Few of the diehards in the Cyrpto industry have much appreciate for financial history. They think they have a word-changing technology, and they do!  But that doesnt mean that Bitcoin is free from the fate of past manias.  Human nature does not change

+ Might be appropriate to share this  now since it may piece together the blockchain topic. Got this sent to me last December by the Money Revealed group. In it, insider Jim Rickards speaks about the SDR which will roll out by June.  It seemed far fetched then, but more possible now..

https://pro.paradigm-press.info/p/awn_sdrblockchainv2_0418/EAWNVCEV/?a=13&o=161584&s=189951&u=9370626&l=2866118&r=MC2&vid=Zl9IC9&g=0&h=true

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THE STAGE IS SET for Massive Money Printing to "save the economy". 

But this will eventually kill the dollar, and bring hyperinflation to the USD,  Thing is, I think there may be a gameplan of what to do AFTER that. 

Possible Answer: offer a new Crypto with Govt support, and some form of backing.  The Drama is about to run... beyond the Prelude

=====

OIP.Cuw3axKhG2iaOZ_LNAv3_gHaE8?w=248&h=1
Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time...
Bailout scheme merges Fed and Treasury into one organization!

it’s the alphabet soup of new programs that deserve special consideration, as they could have profound long-term consequences for the functioning of the Fed and the allocation of capital in financial markets. Specifically, these are:

CPFF (Commercial Paper Funding Facility) – buying commercial paper from the issuer. PMCCF (Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility) – buying corporate bonds from the issuer. TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) – funding backstop for asset-backed securities. SMCCF (Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility) – buying corporate bonds and bond ETFs in the secondary market. MSBLP (Main Street Business Lending Program) – Details are to come, but it will lend to eligible small and medium-size businesses, complementing efforts by the Small Business Association.

To put it bluntly, the Fed isn’t allowed to do any of this. The central bank is only allowed to purchase or lend against securities that have government guarantee. This includes Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities and the debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. An argument can be made that can also include municipal securities, but nothing in the laundry list above.

So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

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Bo Polny – New Era of Time Starts in April -Jesus Coming Back (something big at Passover)

> LINK to his presentation:

He's a cycles analyst, sometimes hits it on the mark.  (But he is often wrong, and then quickly forgets that - I have a thread showing that.)

In the interview, he clearly states: "we are at D, ready for a sharp plunge into E... in April"

GH: "sharp plunge into  DOW 15,000 or whatever"

4WtNF1s.gif

Above is my own target, done many days ago (in showing in earlier post on this thread) : about 16,000

"Between now and the END of 2022, I am looking for a terrible stock market,

Stocks should have a hyper-inflationary rally in Sept. or year end, followed by a huge drop (into end 2022,)

===== =====

"DANIEL's TIME LINE"

Epic Gold, Silver Rise & Markets Plunge in April –Bo Polny

Bo-Polny-3.29.2020-pic-300x284.png

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny predicted a market crash in the stock market on February 9, 2020. A few weeks later, it nosedived 36% in the fastest crash in the history of the markets. Is it over? Not according to Polny. He contends, “When gold was shooting up into the $1,600 range in February along with silver and mining stocks, I said don’t get too excited because the market was going to top out the end of February, and then gold and silver will have a down cycle in the month of March. That’s what happened. Why did I schedule the interview at the end of March? The end of March is a final entry point to get in on gold and silver positions. Once April comes, gold and silver will do the opposite. Again, please understand my words, they will do the opposite of what they did in March.

> more: https://usawatchdog.com/epic-gold-silver-rise-markets-plunge-in-april-bo-polny/#more-23165

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: Fav5 (w/WM.t):

hBwycTv.gif

Kicking off historic bull run: 'Look for new record highs above $1,921' — Credit Suisse

The comparisons between today's gold price action and that of 2008 are gaining popularity with Credit Suisse now expecting the COVID-19 crisis to eventually push gold to new record highs of above $1,921 an ounce.

“We remain major long term Gold bulls, with the market encouragingly back above its 200-day average having held above key support at $1,452/1,446,” Credit Suisse said in a note last week. “We still look for new record highs above $1,921.”

. . .

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold first saw a sharp sell-off, but following the intervention from the Federal Reserve, the precious metal eventually began to rise, kicking off a historic bull run.

“It's important to note that Real Yields have stopped rising and we still believe a similar dynamic will play out to 2009 when after a sharp initial correction in 2008, gold eventually went on to make new all-time record highs,” Credit Suisse said.

From the technical perspective, gold’s initial resistance is currently above $1,700 an ounce while support is at around $1,450, the note pointed out.

“Resistances above $1,700/05 are eventually seen at $1,734, the 78.6% retracement of the 2011/15 down move, then the $1,796/1,803 corrective highs from 2011/12,” Credit Suisse said. “Key support remains at $1,452/46, below which now completes a top to suggest a much-protracted correction, with the next support at $1,374/48.”

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SET For an End-of-March TURN?

SHORT TERM UPDATES:

10-day Chart: GLD/Gold, SLV/Silver, TLT/Bonds

iLl0bwf.gif

 

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IF/when GLD/Gold Jumps the creek at $160 (soon?),

then something wonderful ...

GLD / All... Last: $155.17, +$2.52, +1.65%

zb296Jf.gif

"Something Wonderful" will be Gold stocks "rediscovering" their Bull market

GDXJ / All... Last: $31.83, +$2.12, +7.14%

CKok3tX.gif

Gold stocks are cheap.  They got knocked down with stocks-in-general,  but for those miners who can keep their mines open, they are enjoying a high price for their production. Maybe the highest price ever within this year.  And ultra low Energy prices.  But the crowd goes on dozing. ZZZ-ZZZ-ZZZ

GDXJ-to$Gold Ratio

UwDoomv.png

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CHINA's YUAN gets Acceptance

he IMF officially green-lighted the acceptance of China’s currency – the Yuan – into the IMF’s foreign exchange basket. According to Reuters, this move paves the way for the IMF to place the yuan on a par with the US dollar. This is the latest in a series of global developments that threatens to eliminate the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Experts predict this announcement will trigger one of the most profound transfers of wealth in our lifetime.  So if you want to protect your savings & retirement, you better get your money out of US dollar investments and into the one asset class that rises as currencies collapse.

*The IMF Holds Supreme Power*

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, is one of the most secretive and powerful organizations in the world.  They monitor the financial health of more than 185 countries. They establish global money rules and provide “bail-out” assistance to bankrupt nations.  Some are warning that any move by the IMF to supplant the US dollar could be catastrophic to American investments.

And now, the IMF has made the first move.  As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the IMF officially green-lighted the acceptance of China’s currency – the Yuan – into the IMF’s foreign exchange basket.  This marks the first time in history the IMF has expanded the number of currencies in the foreign exchange basket. This means that the Chinese currency will now become a viable global alternative to the US dollar.

According to Juan Zarate, who helped implement financial sanctions while serving in George W. Bush’s Treasury department, “Once the [other currency] becomes an alternative to the dollar, rules of the game begin to change.”

Leong Sing Chiong, Assistant Managing Director at a major central bank, said this dollar alternative “is likely to transform the financial landscape in the next 5-10 years.”

Currency expert Dr. Steve Sjuggerud warned, “I’ve been active in the markets for over two decades now, but I’ve never seen anything that could move so much money, so quickly. The announcement will start a domino effect, that will basically determine who in America gets rich in the years to come, and
who struggles.

Dr. Sjuggerud says if you own any US “paper” assets - and that includes stocks, bonds, or just cash in a bank account – you should be aware of what’s about to happen and know how to prepare.  A number of experts believe a recent spike in gold and silver prices is a direct result of the IMF’s action. Precious metals notoriously rise when the US dollar falls.

*The Death of the US Dollar in One Frightening Graph*

For the last 600 years, there have been six different global reserve currencies controlled by world superpowers. The latest – the US dollar – has dominated world currency for over 80 years. The alarming fact is, global reserve currencies have collapsed every 80-90 years for the last six centuries! What does this mean for America and the dominance of the US dollar? Based on recent evidence and long-standing historical trends, experts predict the imminent collapse of the US dollar! What’s more alarming? Many Americans aren’t yet doing the one thing that will save their savings & retirement from US dollar collapse.

Just take a look at the graph below. It shows the lifespan of dominant currencies going back 600 years. Notice that the US dollar has now been the dominant currency for 88 years, about the same length of time as its predecessors.

It’s obvious why experts say that the US dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are coming to a climactic end.

*All Fiat Currencies Collapse*

“Fiat” currency is paper currency backed by nothing tangible. As opposed to “sound money” which is backed by gold or some other valuable commodity, a fiat currency is backed by nothing more than faith in the government. The US dollar has been a fiat currency since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 in what was the greatest heist in American history. The scary fact is, the average life span of a fiat currency is 40

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STALL COMING here?  And a slide down to a retest the Lows coming?

SPY fell by 35.7%, 120.82 points, from 218.26 to 339.08

Rally of 38.12% of that drop ... 120.82 x.3812= 46.05 pt./ + L-218.26 = SPY 264.31

Yesterday we saw: 264.86 +16.67, +6.72%.  No gtees, of course !

akcs4IN.gif

VIX is 47% off its Yr.High of 85.47/ Last: 45.24 -1.56, -3.33%

rnp3t0C.gif

===

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China stocks may hit their low earlier, because they started so much lower

Ten Years - of Shanghai Composite vs SPY, etf for S&P 500 ... 10-years : All-data : Spy-265 / 2821 = 9.4%

CWZo5P9.gif

Big difference, eh?  Which system is creating wealth better, do you suppose? 

FREEDOM & INCENTIVES MATTER !

Or do they?  Look at these two indicies over a Longer period

: All-data : w/PSEI.ph :

gbEtqPO.gif

When they moved apart, it often signaled a trading opportunity.

Next one?  maybe US's SPY at end 2022

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