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PROPERTY PEAK IN PLACE for PHL - major declines ahead

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Here's an update on Ayalaland's (ALI's) chart since ... Before 2000 / Last: P33, after initial low under P20

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Shorter term :

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The Big Three : ALI: 33.30, SMPH: 31.00, MEG: 2.97 / ALI= 8.92%

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WEALTH DESTRUCTION is Real. and a challenge for Everyone.                                     

Hard to spend much... when you have reduced income, and depleted savings.  It seems inevitable that House prices will soon "fall off a cliff".  I dont believe it, when people say only the middle class that borrows to buy homes will be hit.  And THE LUXURY SECTOR will do fine.                       

Hasn't it dawned on people that wealthy people own businesses, and they will have to divert money into shoring up their business interests. Or investing in new opportunites.  Buying a Luxury Home will NOT be at the top of the List when the economy is sliding like this.  Except for a tiny (lucky) minority

(from a viber chat)

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Finally, an "honest" opinion from one real estate broker...

Update: Current State of the Philippine Real Estate Market

I’ve had numerous conversations with clients about the state of the real estate market. It seems my willingness to shoot myself on the foot by giving a bad outlook makes my advice more credible. This piece has been long overdue, and I thought that writing it in bullet form will enable me to finish it faster. So here goes…

Rental Market

•    Since the government implemented ECQ, we saw a 10% to 20% of the rental market in CBDs pre-terminate. Most of these are made up of foreigners who took advantage of their diplomatic clauses and went back to their home countries. Some of them simply could no longer afford their leases.

•    With the exodus of foreigners from the country, a large number of the Php100,000 and above listings popped up in the past two months.

•    We still see rental deals close though they’re mostly from people who upgrade to a bigger unit while paying for the same price they used to. Some have downgraded to a smaller and cheaper unit.

•    The demand for commercial properties is almost non-existent. I have a 50-sqm prime, ground floor Salcedo Village listing that’s perfect for a satellite office but so far haven’t received any inquiries. Pre-COVID, there would be a long line of interested parties for this space.

•    Some law firms took advantage of depressed prices and moved their offices to BGC. It seems that law offices are among the least hit by the pandemic.

Property Sales

•    As expected, developer sales have taken a big hit, with some buyers canceling their purchases. Developers have issued new promotions, payment schemes, and discounts developers to help sales.

•    We still saw some secondary market sales of condo units, mostly from deals that initiated before the quarantine. We’ve also been getting relatively a lot of inquiries for Grove units.

•    Some people have moved out of their condo units and bought townhouses for their larger living areas.

•    Surprisingly, there’s a surge in demand for beach properties—particularly Punta Fuego–from people who wanted to be locked up at the beach.

•    In general, clients informed their brokers that they’re in the market for “good deals.”

•    Though it seems that everybody has a different definition of what a good deal is: Developers think lighter payment terms is a good deal; sellers believe that a 10% discount from pre-COVID prices is a good deal; and buyers, well, don’t have a concrete idea of what a good deal is.

Forecast:

•    Rental demand for condos will remain depressed until the end of 2021–when a vaccine has been distributed to most of the population and investor confidence returns.

•    The best strategy I could suggest if you have a vacant unit is to price the unit at the same price (pre-COVID) of the next smaller unit. I know it hurts, though some income is better than no income. The last thing people would want to do is to increase their monthly expenditure with all the looming uncertainties.

•    The likely return of ex-pats, who are among the people who can afford luxury properties, is still undetermined.

•    If you’re not in dire need of cash, don’t sell your property. All pandemics end and demand would return as soon as the gears of the economy rerun at a normal pace. Just don’t expect to sell it at higher than pre-COVID prices.

•    In the same way, don’t expect the same capital appreciation rates in CBDs as those seen in previous years.

•    If there’s one thing that COVID taught us is, it’s how to run companies with work-from-home (WFH) setups. Since companies have learned to operate from WFH setups, they can introduce substantial savings from cutting their office spaces (and giving employees subsidies for better internet connections) by a significant amount.

•    Also, if employees are only be required to go to the office two/three-days a week, they can now afford to live in houses outside the city. A three-hour (two-way) drive, twice-weekly, will now seem reasonable.

(copied from Viber post by DV)

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Virus Threatens Property’s Dominance of Philippine Stock Market /

Having suffered the worst first-half performance in any year since 2008, a gauge of Philippine’s property stocks is faring worse than the nation’s benchmark index in 2020 after six years of outperformance.

The losses have also erased the valuation premium real estate shares typically command over the broader market -- an occurrence that’s seen them stage a sharp rebound on more than one occasion in the past. But keeping history aside, things don’t look too promising for the sector that houses some of the country’s most-valued companies.

A more-than doubling of coronavirus cases in the Philippines in July risks sapping demand and inflicting more pain on real estate stocks...

The PSE Property Index tumbled almost 27% in the first six months of the year -- the most in such a period since 2008 -- as residential and commercial demand sank once the virus outbreak forced people to stay at home and shift spending to essential goods. The gauge sank as much as 5.4% on Monday as a stricter lockdown was reimposed in Manila amid record rise in infections.

The measure, with a market capitalization of almost $36 billion, is heading for a 34% year-to-date loss. That’s versus a 27% loss for the benchmark Philippines Stock Exchange Index. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Real Estate Index is down 20% this year...

Four core property firms carry a combined weighting of almost 22% in the 30-member PSEi gauge. The sector accounts for over 50% of the benchmark when taking into account diversified companies with real estate ventures.

“It’s like an earthquake hit the sector,” said Cristina Ulang, head of research at First Metro Investment Corp. in Manila. “But for the long term, it should be a top choice. One can’t ignore property to ride a market rebound -- it’s big part of the index.”

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-02/virus-t

Top 13 Real Estate Property Developers in the Philippines

    1. Ayala Land     (ALI)
    2. SM Prime       (SMPH)
    3. Megaworld     (MEG)
    4. Alveo Land      (ALI subsidiary)
    5. DMCI Homes  (DMC)
    6. Federal Land
    7. Robinsons Land Corp.
    8. Vista Land and Lifescapes
    9. Filinvest Land
    10. Shang Properties
    11. Century Properties
    12. Empire East
    13. Rockwell Land

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FOUR CORE Property stocks... from 5.14.2019: 10d: w/SCC/ See likely Cycles

Last: Smph-29.20, Ali-28.80, Meg-2.91 (10% of ave,-Smph&Ali), Dmc-4.00, Scc-9.42

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Showing likely Cycles

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==

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POGO exodus pulls Manila office demand 74% lower in first half

THE DEMAND for office space in the country dropped 74% in the first six months of 2020 as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) began their exodus amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In a recent report by real estate consultancy firm Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC), POGOs were found vacating 48,000 square meters (sq.m.) of office space from March to June, making up 54% of the 89,000 sq.m. of vacated space during the period.  POGOs also recorded zero demand from April to June. LPC tallied 77,000 sq.m. of transactions during the period, most of which were from the Information Technology and Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector with 42,000 sq.m. of demand.

This resulted in a drop in first-half transactions to 234,000 sq.m. this year from 885,000 sq.m. last year. The composition was also disrupted as POGOs shrunk to 12% of the pie from 40% last year. IT-BPM made up 40% of the composition this year from 41% last year, and other occupiers such as traditional offices grew to 48% of the pie from 19% last year. LPC is adjusting its yearend forecast to a range of 600,000 to 800,000 sq.m. of office space demand, down from its initial estimate of 800,000 to 1 million sq.m. office transactions. Despite this, LPC President and CEO David T. Leechiu said the Philippine office market remains “unique in the world” for continuing to record new leases, albeit much less from last year.

“The Philippine office segment has not yet entered a point of contraction,” Mr. Leechiu said. He added support is needed for both the IT-BPM and POGO sectors to fuel the growth of the property sector.

. . .

On the residential segment, LPC said it drew activity from transactions in the Metro Manila condominium market, but no new projects were launched in the second quarter due to quarantine restrictions.  LPC said developers are on a wait-and-see mode as unit sales have been dropping quarter on quarter, shrinking 36% for the January-to-March period, and remaining flat with a 0.2% uptick in April-to-June.

There are now only 23,379 condominium units in Metro Manila’s supply pool, 86% of which are from the middle-income bracket.

The firm said sales from most segments of the middle-income bracket have been declining in the second quarter, due to job losses both locally and abroad. It was offset only by the upscale segment, which posted a sales growth of 35%.

LPC also said large developers remain firm about pricing levels for both primary and secondary units, despite the softening of capital values in central business districts by 5% to 10%. They instead offer cash discounts, lower reservation fees and down payments and flexible payment schemes to spur demand.

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Core-4 Property shares in Late dip today.  New slide underway
====
Sym.: Last : change: % chg.: PER: Yield: yr.Low:
ALI    : 28.30 - 0.50, -1.74% : 18.5 : 1.87%: 19.44:  x1:
Smph: 28.50 - 0.70, -2.40% : 28.1 : 0.65%: 19.90:  x1:
MEG : P2.88 - 0.03, -1.03% : 6.52 : 2.60%: P1.86: x10: 18.60
DMC : P4.00 UNCH. -0.00%: 8.72 : 12.0%: P3.10: x7. : 21.70
Core4 28.42 - 0.37, -1.29%: 15.5 : 4.28%: 19.91
Psei  : 5,799 -84.94, -1.44%:  -N/a : -N/a   : 4,039::

You can see how the new slide at P3b, so far looks like the one in late Q1-2020 at P2b

Core-4, from 12/2018: 10d / Last:

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==

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The PROPERTY Slide continues...
Sym.: Last : change: % chg.: PER: Yield: yr.Low:
ALI    : 27.00 - 1.30,  - 4.59% : 17.7: 1.96%: 19.44:  x1:
Smph: 28.05 - 0.45, - 1.58% : 27.7: 0.66%: 19.90:  x1:
MEG : P2.89  +0.01, +0.35%: 6.54 : 2.59%: P1.86: x10
DMC : P4.00 UNCH. - 0.00%: 8.72 : 12.0%: P3.10: x7. :
Core4 27.99 - 0.43, -1.51%: 15.2 : 4.31%: 19.91: +41%
Psei  : 5,738 -60.85, - 1.05%: -N/a-:  -N/a- : 4,039: +42%
%Psei 48.8% (x100)

Long term: Recent YEARS of OUT-PERFORMANCE ... from 2000: 5yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d/ 28.80, 29.20, x, y = 28.78: 48.9%

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Long term: Property shares enjoyed YEARS of OUT-PERFORMANCE ... from 2000.  Especially in the 4 years: 2016-2019. 

Maybe Developer share prices will now revert to the old near-parity with PSEI

==== -PSEI : - ALI: SMPH: MEG: DMC: Core4: %-PS: EPS:
Mult.: ==== : - 1x  : —  1x : -10x: — 7x :
Aug, : 5,884: 28.80: 29.20: 2.91: P4.00: 28.78: 48.9%
Jul.  : 5,928: 33.30: 30.00: 3.00: P3.55: 29.54: 49.8%
Q2—: 6,208: 33.80: 31.85: 3.05: P4.10: 31.21: 50.3%
Q1—: 5,321: 30.20: 28.40: 2.50: P3.77: 27.50: 51.7%
2019: 7,815: 45.50: 42.10: 4.01: P6.61: 43.49: 55.7%
Q2—: 8,000: 50.80: 37.10: 6.10: 10.30: 55.25: 69.1%
2018: 7,466: 40.60: 35.80: 4.75: 12.78: 53.34: 71.4%
2017: 8,558: 44.60: 37.50: 5.16: 14.40: 58.63: 68.5%
2016: 0,000: 00.00: 00.00: 0.00: P0.00: 00.00:
2015: 0,000: 00.00: 00.00: 0.00: P0.00: 00.00:
2010: 0,000: 00.00: 00.00: 0.00: P0.00: 00.00:
2005: 2,096: P9.90: P7.90: 1.20: P3.15: 00.00:
2000: 1,495: P5.40: P5.80: 0.80: P0.27: P5.27: 35.3%%:
====

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DISCUSSION of Property shares as a bellwether - from a viber Property chat

WHO is Exiting PHL property stocks? (comment from HK): 

There are some bigger shareholders exiting position at the moment in ALI. Not just fundamentally driven. That’s PH liquidity... you can’t just sell it 10mio usd in the market. In the US that would be swallowed quickly in the larger caps, in PH, impossible to get it out without beating up the price or finding a buyer to cross.

Response:

I take it, the sellers are shrinking the PHL part of their portfolios.  Is there any simple reason WHY they are doing that?  And what might cause them to reverse their shrinking allocations to PHL?

Foreigners are very underweight PH.. I think as soon as the virus is under control, people will return ... but we re not yet there

Interesting.  I use Property shares as a predictor for physical Property markets. based on the thesis the shares will lead by 6-12 months. 

(Why?  because insiders may be seeing deterioration in fundamentals, and they gets translated into share sales, because stock transactions were more immediate than Property sales which take longer. )  Your thesis may be that there are other forces driving this shift: namely country allocations, and the need to utilize the most liquid shares to make those country shifts.  Very probably, both forces are at work right now.  Only time will show how accurate the "Prediction" of a continuing slide in Physical property prices will be.  (I will capture this post on my website, so I can look back.)

(PHL based comment):

Any discord in the following scenarios?

1. Different demand between capital cities vs provinces (when developer operates nation wide)

2. When an area the developer has fully developed has run out of land.  (The fully developed area will take a life of its own based on supply and demand and if its really high in demand, prices will go up.  Meanwhile the developers stock price can still tank if future development projects go sour)

Yeah.  I am basically in agreement with that.  FOREIGNER demand has driven prices in core CBD areas, & mostly the mainland chinese.  Smart locals were selling into the mania. They may now be taking some of the profits they made and investing outside the CBDs in the provinces. And this shift is being encourage by the government, which talks about shifting government jobs to "de-congest" the capital, and also by providing better transport links.  The Core-4 got hit, because they were building new projects in the CBD's to feed the Foreigner driven bubble.  But now some of their over priced projects, at over P 200k or over P 300K may be hard to offload, and many installment buyers may try to back out.

I think property share prices are a better leading indicator for how the primary market is going (but not necessarily “THE” real estate market).  We all know how far out of reality primary prices are vs the secondary..

Probably ignited by internet in the 90s, which paved the way for the Call Centre industry, which opened up the door for the BPO industry - the ultimate game changer which put PH on the map, which made the PH government brave enough to create legislation to attract the POGOs.   The real estate industry just goes along for the ride.

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==== -PSEI: % Chg. : ALI : SMPH: MEG: DMC: +SCC: Core4 % Chg :  % PS : PER : EPS: Yield : Div:
Mult.: ==== : ====== - 1x  : —  1x : -10x: — 7x :
Q2 - : 6,208: ====== 33.80: 31.85: 3.05: P4.10: 12.68: 31.21:  =====  50.3%
Jul.  : 5,928: ====== 33.30: 30.00: 3.00: P3.55: P9.95: 29.54: =====  49.8%
Aug, : 5,884: ====== 28.80: 29.20: 2.91: P4.00: P9.42: 28.78: =====  48.9%
09.01 5,799: - 0.76% 28.30: 28.50: 2.88: P4.00: P0.00: 28.42: - 1.25% 49.0%: 15.5: 1.83: 4.28%: 1.22
09.02 5,738: - 1.05% 27.00: 28.05: 2.89: P4.00: P0.00: 27.99: - 1.51% 48.8%: 15.2: 1.84: 4.31%: 1.21
09.03 5,773: +0.60% 26.90: 27.95: 2.88: P4.00: P0.00: 27.91: - 0.28% 48.3%: 15.2: 1.84: 4.34%: 1.21
09.04 5,785: +0.21% 28.20: 27.95: 2.89: P3.96: P9.40: 28.19: +1.01% 48.7%: 15.2: 1.84: 4.34%: 1.21

09.08 5,936: +0.00% 30.00: 28.85: 2.96: P3.97: P9.64: 29.07: =====   49.0%:
09.09 6,034: +1.65% 30.90:  29.15: 3.10: P4.04: P9.79: 29.30: +0.79% 48.6%: 15.9: 1.84: 4.13%: 1.21

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DMC versus SCC (57% owned, main price driver for DMCI)

Semirara Mining and Power Corporation (SCC PM) in which DMC holds a 57% stake (per Sep.2018 article.).  Another notable subsidiary is 27%-owned Maynilad Water which operates DMC’s water segment. It is the largest water concessionaire by customer base in the Philippines.  The original core business of DMC now accounts for only 5% of net income.

Sym:  9/03 : BV’19: %-BV : Earns : PE-R : Divs. : Yield : ShsOS: MkCp NetDb: Ebitda:
Psei : 5,773:
DMC: P4.00: P6.21: 64.4% : 0.459 : 8.71 : 0.480: 12.0%: 13.28B: 53.1B: 25.3B : 16.6B
SCC : P9.68: P10.4: 93.1% : 1.470 : 6.58 :  1.250: 12.9%: 4.300B: 41.7B: 12.2B : 17.6B
56% : P9.68: P10.4: 93.1% : 1.470 : 6.58 :  1.250: 12.9%: 2.410B: 23.4B: 6.83B : 9.86B 
====

Presentations: https://www.dmciholdings.com/investor_relations/presentations

DMC Risk Analysis
+ Has a high level of debt
+ Unstable dividend track record
+ Profit margins (8.8%) are lower than last year (15.1%)

Charts: 10yr: from 9/2010 : 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 3mo: fr. 6.04.20: 10d / Last: Scc-9.68 / Dmc-4.00= r-242%

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: Ytd: 3mo: fr. 6.04.20: 10d

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: 3mo: fr. 6.04.20: Flip: 10d / Last: Scc-9.68 / Dmc-4.00= r-242%

HMqjVOa.gif

==

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Update chart: DMC-scc: YTD:

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====  PSEI : % Chg.: -ALI : SMPH: MEG: DMC: SCC : (%-S): Core4 % Chg:  %PS : PER: EPS: Yield: Div
Mult.: ====: ======   - 1x  :  —  1x : -10x : — 7x :
Ye19 7,815: ====== 45.50: 42.10: 4.01: P6.61: 22.00: 30.0%: 43.49: =====  55.7%
Q1 - : 5,321: ====== 30.20: 28.40: 2.50: P3.77: 11.00: 34.3%: 27.50: =====  51.7%
Q2 - : 6,208: ====== 33.80: 31.85: 3.05: P4.10: 12.68: 32.3% 31.21:  =====  50.3%
Jul.  : 5,928: ====== 33.30: 30.00: 3.00: P3.55: P9.95: 35.7%: 29.54: =====  49.8%
Aug, : 5,884: ====== 28.80: 29.20: 2.91: P4.00: P9.42: 42.5%: 28.78: =====  48.9%
09.01 5,799: - 0.76% 28.30: 28.50: 2.88: P4.00: P9.84: 40.7%: 28.42: - 1.25% 49.0%: 15.5: 1.83: 4.28%: 1.22

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OFW's STRUGGLING: OFWs in a bind with condo payments due to pandemic
August 8, 2020 /
Through the years, major Philippine property developers set up satellite offices in Dubai to tap the huge market of about half a million Filipino workers. But now, they all have clients in a quandary on how to continue paying for their properties.

Beth Camia (not her real name) and her husband acquired a P2.5 million property near SM Southmall during the pre-selling stage, years ago. “Na-turnover na dapat, kaso lang medyo ilang buwang hindi kami makabayad (It should have been turned over already, but we haven't been able to pay for months),” she said.
Pre-selling means the actual unit – or building itself – has not been constructed. Most OFWs prefer buying at the pre-selling stage because the property is a lot cheaper and its value would have increased when the key is finally turned over.
Some OFWs flip the property or sell it, while others rent it out and use part of the money for the monthly amortization. /

TAKEOUT > FORECLOSURE?  :   
Property developers in Dubai interviewed by Rappler said they have OFW clients facing similar problems...
(Everything that I'm working on are loan take-out accounts. They're all turnover units already. Their balance for the units are on bank loan.)
Take-out accounts are those where clients were already done paying down payments or equity and whose properties are with the bank to which they regularly make payments.    /  
Will banks foreclose?
Vince Lubrin, a licensed real estate broker at Robinson’s Land Corporation International, said it would be better for OFWs facing foreclosures to get in touch with their loan officer in the bank and make a compromise agreement.
“Banks will be lenient to make restructural loan proposals suitable for both parties,” he said. “Remember that the banks’ main business is to keep their money moving. As much as possible, they don’t want to foreclose properties because it would be an idle asset on their part."                           

REFUNDS (of 50%):   
There is also an option for those who have made at least two years’ payments, for a refund at a so-called “cash surrender value” if in case the contract is canceled.
The law requires a 50% refund of the total payments made for the first 5 years, and an additional 5% for the succeeding years. The statute also provides that down payments, deposits, or options on the contract should be included in the installments made.

> https://rappler.com/nation/overseas-filipinos/ofws-bind-condo-payments-pandemic

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