Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

The BIG MELTDOWN - Possible END of Long Bull Market

Recommended Posts

I guess that's the difference between a liberal democracy and a pseudo police state that has to mount guards with pump action shotguns on the 7/11 and shoot drug dealers on sight.

It's exhilerating watching the Dow Jones drop 1000 points a day and Sterling fall through the floor. Lots of opportunities for anyone with cash. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not quite that bad here, Colonel.

In fact, even with his quirks, authoritarian behavior, and anti-American rants, Du30 remains popular with the average Pinoy.  They may like a strong hand

(i posted this just now on a Neighborhood viber chat):

AGE CURFEW : Heard it last night. It is not being enforced (yet).

Went on walkabout again, some minor shopping in the Neighborhood.  Lots of people around, mostly walking alone. 

Not stopped by anyone, nor did I have my idea checked for age.  The Lawsons nearest me was sold out of larger bottles of water, but a nearby 711 had plenty

(A strong hand may seem necessary in some localities here - The HAVES have good reason to fear the Have-Nots):

US State Dept advisory says over 3-4 million Filipinos in the metropolis has only 3 days of cash left. Another 4-5 Million one week’s food. They do not wish to alarm but there is potential for an increase in crimes for looting and violation of the quarantine. Philippine military and police must exercise good judgment. As the more serious immediate impact from the outbreak which is psychological will cause panic and desperation.

The State Dept is advising the Philippine government to setup feeding centers and assistance centers for people who don't have the ability to last this quarantine.

===

BTW, do you still rate the UK as a "liberal democracy"?  Maybe post-Brexit, you can

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well...I was regurgitating Boris Johnson's quote from a couple of days ago when he was asked to explain why his quarantine measures weren't as draconian as other countries. If we are not a liberal democracy I don't know who is....mind you they had a good go at destroying it over the last 45 years.

Evidently whilst we are panic buying food...although it's not really a panic if you may have to self quarantine for 2 weeks it's simply a sensible precaution that the supermarket supply chain are not equipped to cope with....over the pond they are " panic " buying semi-automatics...lets hope when they find they can't shoot the virus they don't start using them on school kids again.

Over in Thailand where I have friends they seem to be doing a good job of containing the virus so far although their case count is creeping up above the 200 mark and they have just begun bar closures....considering the number of Chinese they had crawling over the place it is remarkable it's not a lot worse but you have to wonder if they have tested many. I doubt it somehow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a Little lower to go for Oil / USO?  Last $4.71 / WTI: $20.83

t0yV5U2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, colonelmustard said:

...whilst we are panic buying food...although it's not really a panic if you may have to self quarantine for 2 weeks it's simply a sensible precaution that the supermarket supply chain are not equipped to cope with....over the pond they are " panic " buying semi-automatics...lets hope when they find they can't shoot the virus they don't start using them on school kids again.

Over in Thailand where I have friends they seem to be doing a good job of containing the virus so far although their case count is creeping up above the 200 mark and they have just begun bar closures....considering the number of Chinese they had crawling over the place it is remarkable it's not a lot worse but you have to wonder if they have tested many. I doubt it somehow

Agreed.

I failed to buy extra stores of food when it was easy.  Now I face long queues, like one hour to get into major supermarkets

So instead, I buy from drug stores & convenience stores were I can get in easily, but have much less selection, & maybe pay more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my local supermarket today they were limiting customers to a maximum of 2 items of anyone product. Their supply chain is clearly under a lot of stress because yesterday they had no milk at all and today they had no fresh meat...and I mean nothing...that is unprecedented in my experience although it's odd that I can go just a half a mile away to aTesco express and their shelves are full. My guess is a lot of people have come in from out of town that wouldn't normally shop there and they headed for the main supermarket and not the smaller stores located out of the way. I can understand it in a way because if you live in the sticks and do a fortnightly shop you might be trebling that in order to give yourself some security.

Otherwise things are pretty relaxed...I feel as if people are getting used to the idea of this virus now and that could spell danger when complacency ( the Phony war ) sets in and you think it isn't coming after all then ...Whammo !...it will strike...A bit like the Germans through the Ardenne forest in May 1940....lets hope we don't get flanked this time and end up at Dunkirk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is talk of a Possible cure - using a Combo of two existing drugs

Could help to shore up confidence... and Markets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, drbubb said:

There is talk of a Possible cure - using a Combo of two existing drugs

Could help to shore up confidence... and Markets

I think you are referring to this :

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“THE REALITY is Much WORSE, than you see” (in the Stats)
Cases “could get into the millions”
The market wants to discount the bad news, but does not know how to do that.
Complete economic freeze is possible. Like Ice-9, this can spread & spread
Jim Rickards: economic freeze is here, get gold, silver if you can and get ready
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj3ttaiSgvs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PORTFOLIO Allocations, are a function of herding...

Maybe they are ALL Wrong for our changing time

This is Excellent !

70% -in-Equities, worked well for last 40 years, but not the last 90 years

Many strategies that worked over the last 40 years, would have annihilated capital over 90 years!

Does "Buying the Dip" Pay Off? (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)

"The snake (corporations fueled by Debt) has been eating its own tail (continuing buybacks)"

"i clearly believe in Intrinsic value."

To win... You need to boldly size undervalued/ under-owned "counter-trend" sectors" (ie. Gold)

"Most funds have portfolios that are TILTED towards growth assets."

"Real estate is a LEVERED GROWTH ASSET" = Dangerous in a time of Low growth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sterling is in meltdown along with all currencies as they rush back to the Dollar. The economics guy reporting on the BBC last night actually looked scared as he explained how while the BOE was cutting rates the cost of borrowing money in the money markets was actually going up.

I'm convinced if this continues we are going to see Cyprus like bail-ins or possibly something worse.

I can't help thinking some of those remainers who were promising us armageddon if we voted for Brexit and making jokes about waiting for all the older generation to die off...telling us that the planes wouldn't fly...and it would be a catastrophe have got exactly what they wanted. Be careful what you wish for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MAYBE it is a Global Margin Call on some big Hedgies - that's what I am hearing

"With rates going up, all the relative value trades have blown up. Nothing works any more as they were making 12bps in illiquid stuff on massive leverage (off the runs, etc). As funding goes up they instantly go wildly unprofitable and are stuck either begging for repo funding or having to unwind and realize massive losses. There is no funding. This is big trouble.

These guys are short vol (VAR),  short liquidity and short rates. The perfect f'ing storm."

PART of a longer message

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No potatoes.. very few vegetables...no milk....no bread loaves...just a few bread rolls.. just one or two pre-packaged ready meals and a very limited amounts of tinned stuff...most of the freezer cabinets cleaned out. Baked beans all gone. No toliet rolls and it's been like this for almost a week...No one stocking shelves so there is obviously nothing in the backroom.

As far as I am concerned there are food shortages here now and tonight Boris effectively shut the country down announcing all bars restaurants clubs gyms etc are to close from tonight and the Chancellor has promised money to support business.

I'll survive but there are many self employed that will get diddly squat and won't despite all the fine words from the Chancellor and Prime Minister....

The rout has begun...it's every man for himself.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/19/2020 at 1:09 PM, drbubb said:

Agreed.

I failed to buy extra stores of food when it was easy.  Now I face long queues, like one hour to get into major supermarkets

So instead, I buy from drug stores & convenience stores were I can get in easily, but have much less selection, & maybe pay more

The small local shops are relatively well stocked. Even the big supermarkets have plenty of veg, it’s things like sanitizers, bread, even self raising flour that is short.

2 hours ago, colonelmustard said:

No potatoes.. very few vegetables...no milk....no bread loaves...just a few bread rolls.. just one or two pre-packaged ready meals and a very limited amounts of tinned stuff...most of the freezer cabinets cleaned out. Baked beans all gone. No toliet rolls and it's been like this for almost a week...No one stocking shelves so there is obviously nothing in the backroom.

As far as I am concerned there are food shortages here now and tonight Boris effectively shut the country down announcing all bars restaurants clubs gyms etc are to close from tonight and the Chancellor has promised money to support business.

I'll survive but there are many self employed that will get diddly squat and won't despite all the fine words from the Chancellor and Prime Minister....

The rout has begun...it's every man for himself.

 

 

Farm shops have potatoes and veg too still, look for those. Tinned stuff still exists in rural shops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds desperate, Colonel.

But I do think it will get better.  Here in Manila, Lines shorter, and grocery stores here are now more organized:

"I just come back from a grocery in Makati. It's very well organised. I am impressed by their organisation."

"just went and bought stuff, no line-up..."

"xx"

I used a few local convenience stores to tide me over, when I waited for days when the lines at the majors were shorter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The sun is out..so are the people...

The supermarket shelves are full again...

and London has fallen... I think they'll have to go into lockdown shortly because hospital admissions have exploded

Still reasonably under control in my area but a worrying cluster has developed in Hampshire around Winchester

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep the faith, Colonel,  and store enough food,

I dont think this will go on many more weeks. but it will get more scary first

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've got enough for a couple of weeks now so I will be limiting any outside contact to a minimum

This thing kills quick...what puzzles me is how some can brush it off and others are dead within days

Boris to address the nation tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, colonelmustard said:

I've got enough for a couple of weeks now so I will be limiting any outside contact to a minimum

This thing kills quick...what puzzles me is how some can brush it off and others are dead within days

Boris to address the nation tonight.

I’ve friends in the forces and mate with kids in the  military, a few have had quite scary briefings of late, they are advising people need to take this more seriously, one said to his father “we get the serious shit ahead of the public” I think they have been told of lockdown scenarios to curb movement.

Something coming down the line soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you guys aware of David Wilcock's recent videos about the PANDEMIC?

He says the Virus is real, and a danger to some - but the disruption will not last long/

He thinks it will be used as a Cover for the MASS ARRESTS he has been talking about a long time ago.

I am trying to confirm key parts of his narrative.

One interesting part was the recent arrest of the Harvard professor, Charles Leiber, who lied about his ties with China, and was arrested

Wilcock claimed they found vials of Coronavirus, hidden in his socks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BofA Calls For "War-Time Measures", Urges Near-Total Fed Takeover Of Capital Markets

powell%20shocked%202_7.jpg?h=df3c6bf4&it

... but warns that "communication would need to be clear to ensure dollar reserve status is not jeopardized. "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lockdown...What lockdown ?

I think it's going to have to get more serious than this. I have jusy been out for a walk...it's a beautiful sunny day here...17 degrees and clear blue skies...I couldn't resist it. There were people riding bikes ..walking dogs..couples with pushchairs..joggers and shoppers..

There is nothing wrong with all that...quite legitimate within the terms of the " lockdown "

Reduced amount of traffic around and no school kids ... several buses and no passengers...who would want to get into the confined space of a bus ...it would only take one asymptomatic infected person breathing aerosolised droplets into that space and... boom !

I thought I was pretty aware of the risks but still it is hard to keep 2 metres away from anyone the minute you leave your front door...I squeezed past my neighbour on my way out ( I think she's from Poland...quite nice but has a boyfriend ) and I thought that simple act of stepping outside and squeezing past her could in theory have infected me with airborne droplets ...

It's almost impossible to avoid such minor levels of interaction without shutting yourself away and only going out when there are minimal potential contacts and I guess that is why vulnerable people are being told to stay at home and not go out for 12 weeks...and why such strict quarantines have been imposed elsewhere in Europe.

I expect things to get much more serious in the coming weeks because this just isn't going to cut it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The # New Cases continues to soar, so I avoid (most) stocks.  Though I bought one*.

My Silver play (SLV calls) is starting to work & I am glad a doubled down after the third gap, and bought $10 & $11 Calls

Getting some scary headlines now...

Doug Casey warns greater depression is upon us, gold remains steadfast as refuge - Kitco Video News, Mar 24 2020
Huge spreads occurring in gold prices - Kitco News, Mar 24 2020

Adrian Day: 'I'm very bullish on gold' prices - Kitco News, Mar 24 2020

Doug Casey says: "THE GREATER DEPRESSION is upon us"

The recent pandemic has provided the catalyst needed to finally push our economy into an overdue “great depression,” this according to Doug Casey, founder of Casey Research.

Casey told Kitco News that although the virus has popped the bubble, the underlying problem is still due to poor economic fundamentals.

“This hysteria over the coronavirus, not necessarily over the virus itself but the resulting hysteria, and the second and third order knock-on effects have kicked it off. It’s been long overdue but don’t blame it on the virus, blame it on very, very unsound fundamentals,” he said. “The inevitable has become the imminent.”

Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has sold off 30%, with precious metals falling alongside stocks as investors scramble to raise cash. The Federal Reserve has responded to market turmoil with two rate cuts, bringing interest rates to near zero. Bond yields have also fallen to historic lows.

Despite market calamity, Casey said that the virus’s seriousness is overblown.

“The virus itself isn’t nearly as serious, I don’t know how serious it’s going to be, but not terribly in my opinion,” he said. “What I’m really shocked at, Daniela, is the degree of hysteria on the part of the powers that be. They’ve actually just gone insane.”

He added that the proper response is not to enforce quarantine by the governments but to allow the population to act in their own best interest, which would result in people naturally staying away from each other.

(Perhaps they are using the "cover" of the virus to advance an agenda. We will be discussing this more)

=====

*I Bought one. Which one?  "Beautiful Clean Coal"

BTU/ Peabody Coal.  I liked the chart. Another energy, oil, may be starting to bottom. 

The $1 & $2 Calls were too expensive, so I bought the stock at just $3.26 - a very liquid stock, compared to many miners

kZj3OSF.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
March 28, 2020
Health professionals overwhelmed Trump and his inner circle with doomsday scenarios. Perhaps he had no other option than go with the flow when this crisis unfolded. But his contrarian antennae have already sent signals that he must reset the economy, pronto.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×